• Title/Summary/Keyword: long-term simulation

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Hourly load forecasting (시간별 전력부하 예측)

  • Kim, Moon-Duk;Lee, Yoon-Sub
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1992.07a
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    • pp.495-497
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    • 1992
  • Hourly load forecasting has become indispensable for practical simulation of electric power system as the system become larger and more complicated. To forecast the future hourly load the cyclic behavior of electric load which follows seasonal weather, day or week and office hours is to be analyzed so that the trend of the recent behavioral change can be extrapolated for the short term. For the long term, on the other hand, the changes in the infra-structure of each electricity consumer groups should be assessed. In this paper the concept and process of hourly load forecasting for hourly load is introduced.

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Prediction for Rolling Force in Hot-rolling Mill Using On-line learning Neural Network (On-line 학습 신경회로망을 이용한 열간 압연하중 예측)

  • Son Joon-Sik;Lee Duk-Man;Kim Ill-Soo;Choi Seung-Gap
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Machine Tool Engineers
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.52-57
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    • 2005
  • In the foe of global competition, the requirements for the continuously increasing productivity, flexibility and quality(dimensional accuracy, mechanical properties and surface properties) have imposed a mai or change on steel manufacturing industries. Indeed, one of the keys to achieve this goal is the automation of the steel-making process using AI(Artificial Intelligence) techniques. The automation of hot rolling process requires the developments of several mathematical models for simulation and quantitative description of the industrial operations involved. In this paper, an on-line training neural network for both long-term teaming and short-term teaming was developed in order to improve the prediction of rolling force in hot rolling mill. This analysis shows that the predicted rolling force is very closed to the actual rolling force, and the thickness error of the strip is considerably reduced.

Prediction for Rolling Force in Hot-rolling Mill Using On-line loaming Neural Network (On-line 학습 신경회로망을 이용한 열간 압연하중 예측)

  • 손준식;이덕만;김일수;최승갑
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Machine Tool Engineers Conference
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    • 2003.04a
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    • pp.124-129
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    • 2003
  • In the face of global competitor the requirements flor the continuously increasing productivity, flexibility and quality(dimensional accuracy, mechanical properties and surface properties) have imposed a major change on steel manufacturing industries. Indeed, one of the keys to achieve this goal is the automation of the steel-making process using AI(Artificial Intelligence) techniques. The automation of hot rolling process requires the developments of several mathematical models fir simulation and quantitative description of the industrial operations involved. In this paper, a on-line training neural network for both long-term teaming and short-term teaming was developed in order to improve the prediction of rolling force in hot rolling mill. This analysis shows that the predicted rolling force is very closed to the actual rolling force, and the thickness error of the strip is considerably reduced.

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Modeling the human memory in nerve fields

  • Fujita, Osamu;Kakazu, Yukinori
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1992.10b
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    • pp.70-73
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    • 1992
  • This paper describes the modeling of human memory using a nerve field model which is proposed for modeling the mechanism of brain mathematically. In our model, two phases of memory, retention and recollection, are focused on. The former consists of two stages, short-term memory (STM) and long-term memory (LTM). The proposed model consists of three parts, the STM Layer, LTM Layer and the Intermediate Layer between them. Each of these is constructed by a nerve field. In the STM Layer, memorized information is retained dynamically in the form of the reverberating states of units within the layer, while in the LTM Layer, it is stored statically in the form of structures of the weight on the links between units. the Intermediate Layer is introduced to translate this dynamic representation in the STM Layer to the LTNI Layer, and also to extract the static information from the STM Layer. In addition to this, we consider the recollection of information stored in the LTM. Finally, the behavior of this model is demonstrated by computer simulation.

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Statistical Characteristics of Self-similar Data Traffic (자기유사성을 갖는 데이터 트래픽의 통계적인 특성)

  • Koo Hye-Ryun;Hong Keong-Ho;Lim Seog-Ku
    • Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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    • 2005.05a
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    • pp.410-415
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    • 2005
  • Recent measurements of local-area and wide-area traffic have shown that network traffic exhibits at a wide range of scales - Self-similarity. Self-similarity is expressed by long term dependency, this is contradictory concept with Poisson model that have relativity short term dependency. Therefore, first of all for design and dimensioning of next generation communication network, traffic model that are reflected burstness and self-similarity is required. Here self-similarity can be characterized by Hurst parameter. In this paper, when different many data traffic being integrated under various environments is arrived to communication network, Hurst Parameter's change is analyzed and compared with simulation results.

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Animal Breeding: What Does the Future Hold?

  • Eisen, E.J.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.453-460
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    • 2007
  • An overview of developments important in the future of animal breeding is discussed. Examples from the application of quantitative genetic principles to selection in chickens and mice are given. Lessons to be learned from these species are that selection for production traits in livestock must also consider selection for reproduction and other fitness-related traits and inbreeding should be minimized. Short-term selection benefits of best linear unbiased predictor methodology must be weighed against long-term risks of increased rate of inbreeding. Different options have been developed to minimize inbreeding rates while maximizing selection response. Development of molecular genetic methods to search for quantitative trait loci provides the opportunity for incorporating marker-assisted selection and introgression as new tools for increasing efficiency of genetic improvement. Theoretical and computer simulation studies indicate that these methods hold great promise once genotyping costs are reduced to make the technology economically feasible. Cloning and transgenesis are not likely to contribute significantly to genetic improvement of livestock production in the near future.

Building A System Dynamics Model for Strategic Knowledge Management in IT Company (IT 기업의 전략적 지식관리를 위한 SD 모델 구축 사례)

  • 박상현;연승준;김상욱
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.105-129
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    • 2002
  • IT companies make a lot of efforts for sharing and utilizing of experiences of their members and transforming them into the organizational knowledge as a competitive core. But they face a dilemma that they have to spend time and financial resource to perform activities around knowledge management for the long-term gains, while carrying field-works for making short-term profits. As an initial attempt to tackle this managerial problem, this paper try to investigate the mechanism of knowledge management in a small IT company in Korea with a synthetic view-point using system dynamics simulation model. It depicts the dynamic behaviors of knowledge management and presents some findings of political leverage. Although it has to be replenished further, the scheme for the dynamism of knowledge management and the findings presented in the paper could be useful for the decision makers particularly of knowledge-intensive organizations

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A STUDY ON A REGULAR EVALUATION METHODOLOGY OF STREAMFLOW DATA

  • Noh, Jae-Kyoung
    • Water Engineering Research
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    • v.1 no.3
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    • pp.233-242
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    • 2000
  • A system for regularly appraising the reliability of streamflow data, KORSAS (KOwaco's Regular Streamflow Appraising System) was developed on PC based Windows for hydrological specialists and engineers working in the Korea Water Resources Corporation (KOWACO). The reliability of streamflow rates can be evaluated with KORSAS in various as pects according to the evaluation duration and method. The former being selected as short term (event based) or long term(continus based), and the latter being classified into comparison methods of flow measurement, other stations results, and simulation. Rainfall-runoff models can be used together with KORSAS in order to evaluate the reliability of observed flow data by comparing with simulated flow data. The objective of this study is to develop a systematic methodology in various aspects to evaluate the reliability of streamflow data regularly.

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Packet Loss Fair Scheduling Scheme for Real-Time Traffic in OFDMA Systems

  • Shin, Seok-Joo;Ryu, Byung-Han
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.391-396
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    • 2004
  • In this paper, we propose a packet scheduling discipline called packet loss fair scheduling, in which the packet loss of each user from different real-time traffic is fairly distributed according to the quality of service requirements. We consider an orthogonal frequency division multiple access (OFDMA) system. The basic frame structure of the system is for the downlink in a cellular packet network, where the time axis is divided into a finite number of slots within a frame, and the frequency axis is segmented into subchannels that consist of multiple subcarriers. In addition, to compensate for fast and slow channel variation, we employ a link adaptation technique such as adaptive modulation and coding. From the simulation results, our proposed packet scheduling scheme can support QoS differentiations while guaranteeing short-term fairness as well as long-term fairness for various real-time traffic.

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Effect of urbanization on the light precipitation in the mid-Korean peninsula (한반도 중부지역에서 약한 강수에 미치는 도시화 효과)

  • Eun, Seung-Hee;Chae, Sang-Hee;Kim, Byung-Gon;Chang, Ki-Ho
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.229-241
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    • 2011
  • The continuous urbanizations by a rapid economic growth and a steady increase in population are expected to have a possible impact on meteorology in the downwind region. Long-term (1972~2007) trends of precipitation have been examined in the mid-Korean peninsula for the westerly condition only, along with the sensitivity simulations for a golden day (11 February 2009). During the long-term period, both precipitation amount (PA) and frequency (PF) in the downwind region (Chuncheon, Wonju, Hongcheon) of urban area significantly increased for the westerly and light precipitation ($PA{\leq}1mm\;d^{-1}$) cases, whereas PA and PF in the mountainous region (Daegwallyeong) decreased. The enhancement ratio of PA and PF for the downwind region vs. urban region remarkably increased, which implies a possible urbanization effect on downwind precipitation. In addition, the WRF simulation applied for one golden day demonstrates enhanced updraft and its associated convergence in the downwind area (about 60 km), leading to an increase in the cloud mixing ratio. The sensitivity experiments with the change in surface roughness demonstrates a slight increase in cloud water mixing ratio but a negligible effect on precipitation in the upwind region, whereas those with the change in heat source represents the distinctive convergence and its associated updraft in the downwind region but a decrease in liquid water, which may be attributable to the evaporation of cloud droplet by atmospheric heating induced by an increase in an anthropogenic heat. In spite of limitations in the observation-based analysis and one-day simulation, the current result could provide an evidence of the effect of urbanization on the light precipitation in the downwind region.