• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권8호
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• pp.41-49
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• 2020

This study investigates the short-run and long-run causal behavior of the Philippine stock market index volatility under vector error correction environment. The variables were tested first for stationarity and then long-run equilibrium relationship. Moreover, an impulse response function was estimated to examine the extent of innovations in the independent variables in explaining the Philippine stock market index volatility. The results reveal that the volatility of the Philippine stock market index exhibit long-run equilibrium relationship with Peso-Dollar exchange rate, London Interbank Offered Rate, and crude oil prices. The short-run dynamics-based VECM estimates indicate that in the short-run, increases (i.e., depreciation) in Peso-Dollar exchange rate cause PSEI volatility to increase. As for the London Interbank Offered Rate, it causes increases in PSEI volatility in the short-run. The adjustment coefficients used with the long-run dynamics validates the presence of unidirectional causal long-run relationship from Peso-Dollar exchange rate, London Interbank Offered Rate, and crude oil prices to PSEI volatility, and bidirectional causal long-run relationship between PSEI volatility and London Interbank Offered Rate. The impulse response functions developed within the VECM framework demonstrate the positive and negative reactions of PSEI volatility to unanticipated Peso-Dollar exchange rate, London Interbank Offered Rate, and crude oil price shocks.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권8호
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• pp.533-542
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• 2020

This study estimates the nature of the relationship of entrepreneurship and business confidence on youth unemployment in the Philippines over the 2001-2017 period. The paper employed a range of cointegrating regression models, namely, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, Johansen-Juselius (JJ) and Engle-Granger (EG) cointegration models, dynamic OLS, fully modified OLS, and canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) estimation techniques. The Granger causality based on error correction model (ECM) was also performed to determine the causal link of entrepreneurship and business confidence on youth unemployment. The ARDL bounds testing approach, Johansen-Juselius (JJ) and Engle-Granger (EG) cointegration models confirmed the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship of entrepreneurship and business confidence on youth unemployment. The long-run coefficients from JJ and dynamic OLS show significant long-run and positive relationship of entrepreneurship and business confidence on youth unemployment. While results of the long-run coefficients from fully modified OLS and canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) found that only entrepreneurship has significant and positive relationship with youth unemployment in the long-run. The Granger causality based on error correction model (ECM) estimates show evidence of long-run causal relationship of entrepreneurship and business confidence on youth unemployment. In the short-run, increases in entrepreneurship and business confidence causes youth unemployment to decrease.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.203-212
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• 2023

This research work aims to investigate the role of FDI in Economic Development by assessing its relationship with GDP per capita in Vietnam +5 from 1986-2020. Through descriptive statistical, correlation matrix analysis, and econometric models, including Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) estimation methods using Stata 15.1. The VECM estimation method results show that FDI positively impacts Economic Development in the short run while not finding a long-run relationship. In addition, it is found that a clear relationship between Exports and Economic Development in both the short run and the long run. Meanwhile, CO2 emissions and Employment Opportunities have no clear relationship with Economic Development in the short run. However, the relationship is reversed in the long run, as the empirical study in Vietnam. The results of the FGLS estimation method show that FDI, CO2 emissions, and Exports have a significant and positive impact on Economic Development in five selected Southeast Asian countries without Employment Opportunities in the long run. From these findings, the author proposes some policy implications of attaching FDI to sustainable Economic Development in Vietnam next time.

• Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.30-36
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• 2018

This study investigates the relationship between economic growth, energy consumption, trade openness, population density, and carbon dioxide ($CO_2$) emissions in Bangladesh for the period of 1975 to 2013. It applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration for establishing the existence of a long-run relationship. The bounds tests suggest that the variables of interest are bound together in the long-run when $CO_2$ emissions is the dependent variable. The results indicate that energy consumption has statistically significant positive effect on $CO_2$ emissions both in the short-run and long-run. The effect of population density is significant in long-run, but not in short-run. The estimated coefficients for economic growth and trade liberalization are negative and insignificant both in short-run and long-run. The paper suggests that the government of Bangladesh should undertake the policy actions to develop alternative energy sources which would not emit much $CO_2$.

• 통상정보연구
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.299-312
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• 2006

This study examines the relations among wage differentials, trade, and productivity in Korea, using the methodology of Granger causality and vector error correction modelling. Cointegration test results over the 1975-2004 period indicate that all the test variables are cointegrated. Therefore, wage differentials, trade, and productivity are all related in the long run. We found some evidence on long-run relationship, while there is no short-run relationship between three test variables. First, trade and wage differentials have positively and bi-directionally Granger causality in the long-run. Second, productivity Granger causes negatively wage differentials in the long-run. Finally, productivity Granger causes positively trade in the long-run. These results explain partially the current theoretical predictions for wage inequality as well as supports the productivity-led growth hypothesis in the Korean economy.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.37-46
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• 2020

The paper examines the dynamic relationship of domestic credit and stock market liquidity on the economic growth of the Philippines from 1995 to 2018 applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration, together with Granger causality test based on vector error correction model (VECM). The ARDL model indicated a long-run relationship of domestic credit and stock market liquidity on GDP growth. When the GDP per capita is the dependent variable there is weak cointegration. Also, the Johansen cointegration test confirmed the existence of long-run relationship of domestic credit and stock market liquidity both on GDP growth and GDP per capita. The VECM concludes a long-run causality running from domestic credit and stock market liquidity to GDP growth. At levels, domestic credit has significant short-run causal relationship with GDP growth. As for stock market liquidity at first lag, has significant short-run causal relationship with GDP growth. With regards to VECM for GDP per capita, domestic credit and stock market liquidity indicates no significant dynamic adjustment to a new equilibrium if a disturbance occurs in the whole system. At levels, the results indicated the presence of short-run causality from stock market liquidity and GDP per capita. The CUSUMSQ plot complements the findings of the CUSUM plot that the estimated models for GDP growth and GDP per capita were stable.

• 경영과정보연구
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• 제25권
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• pp.83-114
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• 2008

We examine whether spinoffs improve long-run stock returns and analyze the factors of long run stock returns. The measures of long run stock returns are CAR(Cumulative Abnormal Returns) and BHAR(Buy and Hold Abnormal Returns). The expected factors of abnormal returns are methods of spinoffs, size, BV/MV, administrative costs, cashflow and Herfindahl index. We find that long-run returns of the case such as carve-out methods, small size, high BV/MV, low administrative costs, low cashflow and low Herfindahl index are larger than those of other cases. We show positive relationship between spinoffs and long-run stock returns(CAR and BHAR). The results supports spinoffs, as the methods of focusing on core business, are very usefulness of corporate restructuring.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권12호
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• pp.95-107
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• 2020

The study investigates the asymmetric effect of exchange rate changes on stock prices in Vietnam. We use the nonlinear autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL) analysis for monthly data from 2001:01 to 2018:05, based on VN-Index stock price collected from Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE); the nominal exchange rate is separated into currency depreciation and appreciation through a partial sum decomposition process. Asymmetry is estimated both in the long-run relationship and the short-run error correction mechanism. The research results show that the effect of exchange rate changes on stock prices is asymmetrical, both in the short run and in long run. Accordingly, the stock prices react to different levels to depreciation and appreciation. However, the currency appreciation affects a stronger transmission of stock prices when compared to the long-run currency depreciation. In the absence of asymmetry, the exchange rate only has a short-run impact on stock prices. This implies a symmetrical assumption that underestimates the impact of exchange rate changes on stock prices in Vietnam. This study points to an important implication for regulators in Vietnam. They should consider the relationship between exchange rate changes and stock prices in both the long run and the short run to manage the stock and foreign exchange market.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제9권5호
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• pp.295-303
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• 2022

This study investigates the impact of globalization, coal consumption, and economic growth on CO₂ emissions in Malaysia by applying the Kuznets Environmental Curve model. The study employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag modeling technique on time series data over the period of 1970-2018 to determine the short and long-run relationship between CO₂ emissions and a number of variables, including globalization, coal consumption, and economic growth. The results show that globalization increase CO₂ emissions in both the short and long run in Malaysia. Furthermore, the results reveal that economic growth and coal consumption degrade the environmental quality by accelerating the CO₂ emissions in the short-run and long run. As a result, the findings validate the Kuznets Environmental Curve hypothesis of an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and CO₂ emissions in the long run for Malaysia. The findings of this study suggest that higher globalization levels and usage of coal consumption degrade the environmental quality in Malaysia. The findings also indicate the effect of economic growth on environmental degradation is positive at the initial stage but improves after the economy achieves a threshold level of income per capita in the economic development process with an inverted U-shaped pattern in the long run.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제29권2호
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• pp.77-96
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• 1998

Fisheries products in Korea generally go through three markets, namely the wholesale market at production site (Market A), the wholesale market at consumption site (Market B), and the retail market (Market C), from producers to end consumers. As the products move from Market A through Market B to Market C, the marginal gap of prices asked in these markets demonstrates an apparent relationship. The producers, middlemen, consumers, and governmental departments concerned may influence the marketing prices of fisheries products. This study employing the cointegration theory tries to investigate whether causality of the price-setting among these markets exists and, if any, what it is. The authors have focused their attention on fisheries markets in Pusan, analyzing the long-run equilibrium relationship and causality between the prices of hairtail and squid among markets at different levels. Data used in this study cover the period f개m August 1984 to December 1997 fer hairtail, and the period from May 1989 to December 1997 for squid. The main findings of the study may be summarized as follows: First, regardless of the price time-series of hairtail and squid in individual market, the first difference is necessary fur satisfying the stationary conditions since each time-series is a first integration. This means homogeneous integration of time-series, which is a requirement of the long-run equilibrium of prices at different markets, is satisfied. Second, the study of the long-run equilibrium relationship between the prices at Market A and Market B shows that a long-run equilibrium relationship does exist for selling prices of the two species at Market A and Market B. Third, the ECM (error correction model ) used here to describe the long- and short-run dynamics of price change demonstrates that, in the case of squid, the price change in Market A will lead to a corresponding price change in Market B in the long-run period. In the short-run, however, the price at Market H is not only influenced by the price change in Market A but influence the price at Market A as well, that is, the Prices between Market A and Market B have a feedback effect. It should be stressed that the limitation in data collection, which cover only two species of hairtail and squid, is likely to cause a sampling bias. Nonetheless, we may conclude that a dynamic relation in the formation of prices does exist in view of the transaction amount of species at different markets. It is believed that the conclusion drawn from this study would not only contribute to a long-lasted debate on the direction of causality of price-setting among academic circle and fishing community, but would provide a useful standard for the policy makers in charge of the price-setting of fisheries products as well.