• 제목/요약/키워드: long term run-off

검색결과 25건 처리시간 0.021초

노동력수급의 요인분석과 전망 (An Empirical Analysis of The Determinants and Long-term Projections for The Demand and Supply of Labor force)

  • 김중수
    • 한국인구학
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    • 제9권1호
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    • pp.41-53
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    • 1986
  • The purpose of this paper is two-fold. One is to investigate the determinants of the demand supply of labor, and another is to project long-term demand and supply of labor. The paper consists of three parts. In the first part, theoretical models and important hypotheses are discussed: for the case of a labor supply model, issues regarding discouraged worker model, permanent wage hypothesis, and relative wage hypothesis are examined and for the case of a demand model, issues regarding estimating an employment demand equation within the framework of an inverted short-run produc- tion function are inspected. Particularly, a theoretical justification for introducing a demographic cohort variable in a labor supply equation is also investigated. In the second part, empirical results of the estimated supply and demand equations are analyzed. Supply equations are specified differently between primary and secondary labor force. That is, for the case of primary labor force groups including males aged 25 and over, attempts are made to explain the variations in participation behavior within the framework of a neo-classical economics oriented permanent wage hypothesis. On the other hand, for the case of females and young male labor force, variations in participation rates are explained in terms of a relative wage hypothesis. In other words, the participation behavior of primary labor force is related to short-rum business fluctuations, while that of secondary labor force is associated with intermediate swings of business cycles and demographic changes in the age structure of population. Some major findings arc summarized as follows. (1) For the case of males aged 14~19 and 2O~24 groups and females aged 14∼19, the effect of schhool enrollment rate is dominant and thus it plays a key role in explaining the recent declining trend of participation rates of these groups. (2) Except for females aged 20∼24, a demographic cohort variable, which captures the impact of changes in the age structure on participation behavior, turns out to show positive and significant coefficients for secondary labor force groups. (3) A cyclical variable produce significant coefficients for prime-age males and females reflecting that as compared to other groups the labor supply behavior of these groups is more closely related to short-run cyclical variations (4) The wage variable, which represents a labor-leisure trade-off turns out to yield significant coefficients only for older age groups (6O and over) for both males and females. This result reveals that unlike the experiences of other higer-income nations, the participation decision of the labor force of our nation is not highly sensitive with respect to wage changes. (5)The estimated result of the employment demand equation displays that given that the level of GNP remains constant the ability of the economy to absord labor force has been declining;that is, the elasticity of GNP with respect to labor absorption decreasre over time. In the third part, the results of long-term projections (for the period of 1986 and 1995) for age-sex specific participation rates are discussed. The participation rate of total males is anticipated to increase slightly, which is contrary to the recent trend of declining participation rates of this group. For the groups aged 25 and below, the participation rates are forecast to decline although the magnitude of decrease is likely to shrink. On the other hand, the participation rate of prime- age males (25 to 59 years old) is predicted to increase slightly during 1985 and 1990. For the case of females, except for 20∼24 and 25∼34 age groups, the participation rates are projected to decrease: the participation rates of 25∼34 age group is likely to remain at its current level, while the participation rate of 20∼24 age group is expected to increase considerably in the future (specifi- cally, from 55% in 1985 to 61% in 1990 and to 69% in 1995). In conclusion, while the number of an excess supply of labor will increase in absolute magnitude, its size as a ratio of total labor force is not likely to increase. However, the age composition of labor force is predicted to change; that is, the proportion of prime-age male and female labor force is projected to increase.

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해외직접투자이론(海外直接投資理論)에 관한 소고(小考) (A Study on the Theory of Overseas Direct Investment)

  • 빈봉식
    • 재무관리연구
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    • 제1권1호
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    • pp.119-131
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    • 1985
  • Although Korea is short of capital technology, and natural resources, she has achieved an outstanding progress by the export-drive policies by Korean government and the creative endeavor of Korean firms. As a result of that, Korean economy and enterprises are in the same file of newly industrialized countries and Korea is ready for an economic take-off as a developed country. But in the early 1980s, each country strengthens protective trade theory and resources nationalism, and this has a great influence on the field of international trade environment. In spite of that, to continue the same high development as that of the past. Korea must try to secure and find export markets, solve trade barriers, make sure of the long-term security of resources, develop technology, and strengthen economic cooperations. To satisfy these desires by 2000s, we must try to make Korean enterprises have the global competitive power and them grow strongly among world wide firm through capital and technology accumulated during the passed years, and to do so, there must be a foreign production and marketing management, too, this can be achieved only through foreign overseas direct investment. This investment has various forms, to say, verifical integrated, horizontal integrated. conglomerate integrated forms, and the amount of investment in each country from 18 century to today reaches 500 billion dollars. This investment is done by strategic, behavioral economic, and financial motives. So I am going to approach the fields of like these; in spite of the differences among political, economical, caltural, and social systems, and many risk compared with domestic enterprises, why do Korean firms witsh to transfer the productive facilities to overseas countries and run them there? What is the comparative advantage of foreign direct investment compared with domestic investment ?. why is the factor of comparative advantage transferred through foreign direct investment?, what is the motive of foreign overseas direct investment?, and last the ownership-specific factors and the theory of internalization, and the location specific factors were analysed chiefly. But in consideration of the given condition in Korea, Korean overseas direct investment must be propelled rationally on the basis of the above mentioned theory.

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BDF 20을 사용하는 디젤기관들의 연소 및 내구특성 (Combustion Characteristics and Durability of Diesel Engines Burning BDF 20)

  • 유경현;오영택
    • 한국자동차공학회논문집
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    • 제15권3호
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    • pp.18-28
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    • 2007
  • Three diesel engines were fueled with BDF 20, a blend of 80% diesel fuel and 20% biodiesel fuel by volume, and run in excess of 200 h to evaluate their combustion characteristics and durability. The engines used for this study were a 4-cylinder 2476-cc displacement IDI diesel engine(Engine 1), a 4-cylinder l732-cc displacement IDI diesel engine(Engine 2), and a single cylinder 673-cc displacement DI diesel engine(Engine 3). Engine dynamometer testing was performed on each engine at regularly scheduled intervals to monitor the performance and exhaust emissions, which were sampled at 1h intervals for analysis, The peak combustion pressure with BDF 20 increased in Engines 1 and 3 over that measured when burning pure diesel fuel, but that in Engine 2 remained constant. Combustion parameters, such as the maximum combustion pressure and corresponding crank angle, did not change over the long-term dynamometer testing. The BSFC with BDF 20 in Engine 1 was less than that measured with pure diesel fuel. The amount of smoke produced with BDF 20 was less for all engines ; the greatest reduction was observed for Engine 3. The NOx emissions were lower in the IDI engines than the DI engine. The traditional trade-off between smoke and NOx emissions was maintained for BDF 20 fuel for Engines 1 and 3. There was not a big difference in the $CO_2\;and\;O_2$ emissions for BDF 20, as compared to pure diesel fuel, but more $CO_2$ was exhausted by Engine 1 than by Engines 2 or 3 and less $O_2$ was exhausted by Engine 1 than by Engines 2 or 3. The engine parts remained clean, except for some carbon attached to the area surrounding the nozzle hole of the DI diesel engine.

노동시장정책의 확대는 복지국가 재정위기 해소에 유효한가? - 소극적·적극적 노동시장정책의 상호작용 효과 (Is Increasing of Labor Market Policy Expenditure Effective Policy Tool to Lessen the Fiscal Crisis in Welfare State? : The Interaction between Active and Passive Labor Market Policy)

  • 배은총;고혜진;조효진
    • 한국사회정책
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    • 제24권4호
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    • pp.185-222
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    • 2017
  • 본 연구는 복지국가의 재정건전성 담보에 노동시장정책 확충이 기여하는지를 실증적으로 규명하는 연구이다. 구체적인 분석은 20개 OECD 국가들의 1985년부터 2015년까지의 자료를 토대로 결합시계열 회귀분석과 Baron과 Kenny(1986)의 단계적 매개효과 검증을 통해 이루어졌으며, 분석의 강건성 확인을 위해 시스템 동적패널분석을 추가 수행하였다. 분석모형을 설정함에 있어 본 연구에서는 기존 연구에서 간과되어온 두 측면, 노동시장정책 성과들 간의 선후 관계와 노동시장정책의 상호작용 효과를 반영하였다. 분석결과 노동시장정책은 복지국가의 부채 수준에 유의미한 영향을 미친다. 이때, 적극적 노동시장정책은 고용률을 매개하여 국가 부채 수준을 효과적으로 낮추는 것으로 나타난다. 반면에, 소극적 노동시장정책은 고용률 제고 기능을 하지 못하는 것은 물론 단기적으로는 국가 부채 부담을 늘리는 경향도 있다. 다만, 이것의 영향은 적극적 노동시장정책과 결부되면 부적 영향이 상쇄되는 것으로 나타난다. 즉, 단기적으로 노동시장정책 지출 확대로 재정수지가 악화될 수는 있지만, 장기적으로 이는 고용률 제고 효과를 통해 복지국가의 재정건전성을 담보하는 데 효과적인 역할을 수행할 수 있는 것으로 보인다.

유기물원이 다른 퇴비연용 밭토양에서 양분유실량 변화 (Change of Nutrition Loss of Long-term Application with Different Organic Material Sources in Upland Soil)

  • 김종구;이경보;김재덕;한상수;김성조
    • 한국토양비료학회지
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    • 제33권6호
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    • pp.432-445
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    • 2000
  • 본 연구는 퇴비연용 밭토양에서 유거 및 침투수에 의한 양분유실과 양분가용화정도를 구명하기 위하여 양토와 사양토를 공시하여 계분퇴비, 우분퇴비 분뇨잔사 및 식품오니퇴비등 4종을 사용하였다. 퇴비 시용량은 0, 40, $80Mg\;ha^{-1}$수준으로 처리하여 1994년부터 1997년도까지 4년간 시험한 주요 연구결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 퇴비종류별 양분가용회량을 조사하기 위하여 퇴비 4년연용한 토양을 배양시험한 결과 토양pH는 계분 및 우분퇴비연용은 에서 pH 6.1~6.8로 높아 졌고, 분뇨잔사시용은 pH 4.5~4.7로 무시용과 비슷하였다. 토양 EC는 배양초기에 가장 높은 후 급격히 떨어지다가 2주후부터는 일정수준을 유지하였고, 질소 무기화율은 $25^{\circ}C$조건에서 사양토는 39~76%였고 식양토는 16~48%였다. 퇴비연용토양에서 토양표면 양분 유실량은 퇴비시용량이 중가될수록 음이온이 양이온보다, 나지가 옥수수나 콩재배보다 많았다. 양이온 유실정도는 $K^+$ > $Ca^{2+}$ > $Na^+$ > $Mg^{2+}$ > $NH_4{^+}$순이었고, 음이은은 $SO_4{^{2-}}$ > $NO_3{^-}$ > $Cl^-$ > $PO_4{^{3-}}$ 순으로 많았다. 토성별 음, 양이온 지하용탈량은 사양토가 양토보다 1.7배정도 많았으며, $NO_3-N$는 퇴비 시용초기에 용탈량이 많았다. 퇴비종류별 용털량을 사양토조건의 분뇨잔사 시용구에서 제일 많게 유실되었으며, 옥수수재배는 무재배보다 58~82% 유실량이 감소되었다.

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