• Title/Summary/Keyword: long term means

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Estimation of Design Wave Height for the Waters around the Korean Peninsula

  • Lee, Dong-Young;Jun, Ki-Cheon
    • Ocean Science Journal
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.245-254
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    • 2006
  • Long term wave climate of both extreme wave and operational wave height is essential for planning and designing coastal structures. Since the field wave data for the waters around Korean peninsula is not enough to provide reliable wave statistics, the wave climate information has been generated by means of long-term wave hindcasting using available meteorological data. Basic data base of hindcasted wave parameters such as significant wave height, peak period and direction has been established continuously for the period of 25 years starting from 1979 and for major 106 typhoons for the past 53 years since 1951 for each grid point of the North East Asia Regional Seas with grid size of 18 km. Wind field reanalyzed by European Center for Midrange Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) was used for the simulation of waves for the extra-tropical storms, while wind field calculated by typhoon wind model with typhoon parameters carefully analyzed using most of the available data was used for the simulation of typhoon waves. Design wave heights for the return period of 10, 20, 30, 50 and 100 years for 16 directions at each grid point have been estimated by means of extreme wave analysis using the wave simulation data. As in conventional methodsi of design criteria estimation, it is assumed that the climate is stationary and the statistics and extreme analysis using the long-term hindcasting data are used in the statistical prediction for the future. The method of extreme statistical analysis in handling the extreme vents like typhoon Maemi in 2003 was evaluated for more stable results of design wave height estimation for the return periods of 30-50 years for the cost effective construction of coastal structures.

A Bayesian approach for vibration-based long-term bridge monitoring to consider environmental and operational changes

  • Kim, Chul-Woo;Morita, Tomoaki;Oshima, Yoshinobu;Sugiura, Kunitomo
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.395-408
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    • 2015
  • This study aims to propose a Bayesian approach to consider changes in temperature and vehicle weight as environmental and operational factors for vibration-based long-term bridge health monitoring. The Bayesian approach consists of three steps: step 1 is to identify damage-sensitive features from coefficients of the auto-regressive model utilizing bridge accelerations; step 2 is to perform a regression analysis of the damage-sensitive features to consider environmental and operational changes by means of the Bayesian regression; and step 3 is to make a decision on the bridge health condition based on residuals, differences between the observed and predicted damage-sensitive features, utilizing 95% confidence interval and the Bayesian hypothesis testing. Feasibility of the proposed approach is examined utilizing monitoring data on an in-service bridge recorded over a one-year period. Observations through the study demonstrated that the Bayesian regression considering environmental and operational changes led to more accurate results than that without considering environmental and operational changes. The Bayesian hypothesis testing utilizing data from the healthy bridge, the damage probability of the bridge was judged as no damage.

Urgent problems and solution strategies in 2nd cycle of long-term care hospital accreditation (요양병원 인증 2주기 당면과제 및 해결방안)

  • Kim, Kyung Sook
    • Korea Journal of Hospital Management
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.65-70
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    • 2016
  • The Long-Term Care Hospital (LTCH) accreditation system was initiated in 2013 in the form of mandatory accreditation system in order to improve patient safety and the quality of medical service at LTCHs. By June 2016, the accredited LTCHs were 76.2%. This research was conducted to review the implementation process in the first cycle and to promote development of the second cycle of LTCH accreditation system. There are some changes which reinforced the accreditation standards, accreditation survey, and public access to accreditation results in order to strengthen patient safety in the first cycle LTCH accreditation system. LTCHs which participated in the accreditation system achieved certain outcomes in respect to patient safety and employee satisfaction. However, there are several urgent problems in placement criteria of night duty health care providers, reinforcement plans in the accreditation system, and incentives for accredited hospitals. In order to solve these problems, the most important thing is to clearly recognize the fact that the healthcare accreditation system is not the means for control and regulate hospitals but a system to induce hospitals to continue to strive for improvements in patient safety and medical service quality. In addition, it is required that LTCHs, accrediting agency and the Ministry of Health and Welfare compromise and cooperate to seek solutions every time issues related to the accreditation system arise.

Long-Term Maximum Power Demand Forecasting in Consideration of Dry Bulb Temperature (건구온파를 오인한 장기최대전력수요예측에 관한 연구)

  • 고희석;정재길
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.34 no.10
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    • pp.389-398
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    • 1985
  • Recently maximum power demand of our country has become to be under the great in fluence of electric cooling and air conditioning demand which are sensitive to weather conditions. This paper presents the technique and algorithm to forecast the long-term maximum power demand considering the characteristics of electric power and weather variable. By introducing a weather load model for forecasting long-term maximum power demand with the recent statistic data of power demand, annual maximum power demand is separated into two parts such as the base load component, affected little by weather, and the weather sensitive load component by means of multi-regression analysis method. And we derive the growth trend regression equations of above two components and their individual coefficients, the maximum power demand of each forecasting year can be forecasted with the sum of above two components. In this case we use the coincident dry bulb temperature as the weather variable at the occurence of one-day maximum power demand. As the growth trend regression equation we choose an exponential trend curve for the base load component, and real quadratic curve for the weather sensitive load component. The validity of the forecasting technique and algorithm proposed in this paper is proved by the case study for the present Korean power system.

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Estimation of runoff coefficient through impervious covers analysis using long-term outflow simulation (장기유출 모의를 통한 도시유역 불투수율에 따른 유출계수 변화)

  • Kim, Young-Ran;Hwang, Sung-Hwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.635-645
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    • 2014
  • The changes of rainfall pattern and impervious covers have increased disaster risks in urbanized areas. Impervious covers such as roads and building roofs have been dramatically increased. So, it is falling the ability safety of flood defense equipments to exist. Runoff coefficient means ratio of runoff by whole rainfall which is able to directly contribute at surface runoff during rainfall event. The application of accurate runoff coefficients is very important in sewer pipelines design. This study has been performed to estimate runoff characteristics change which are applicable to the process of sewer pipelines design or various public facilities design. It has used the SHER model, a long-term runoff model, to analyze the impact of a rising impervious covers on runoff coefficient change. It thus analyzed the long-term runoff to analyze rainfall basins extraction. Consequently, it was found that impervious surfaces could be a important factor for urban flood control. We could suggest the application of accurate runoff coefficients in accordance to the land Impervious covers. The average increase rates of runoff coefficients increased 0.011 for 1% increase of impervious covers. By having the application of the results, we could improve plans for facilities design.

Prediction of Long-term Solar Activity based on Fractal Dimension Method

  • Kim, Rok-Soon
    • The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.45.3-46
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    • 2016
  • Solar activity shows a self-similarity as it has many periods of activity cycle in the time series of long-term observation, such as 13.5, 51, 150, 300 days, and 11, 88 years and so on. Since fractal dimension is a quantitative parameter for this kind of an irregular time series, we applied this method to long-term observations including sunspot number, total solar irradiance, and 3.75 GHz solar radio flux to predict the start and maximum times as well as expected maximum sunspot number for the next solar cycle. As a result, we found that the radio flux data tend to have lower fractal dimensions than the sunspot number data, which means that the radio emission from the sun is more regular than the solar activity expressed by sunspot number. Based on the relation between radio flux of 3.75 GHz and sunspot number, we could calculate the expected maximum sunspot number of solar cycle 24 as 156, while the observed value is 146. For the maximum time, estimated mean values from 7 different observations are January 2013 and this is quite different to observed value of February 2014. We speculate this is from extraordinary extended properties of solar cycle 24. As the cycle length of solar cycle 24, 10.1 to 12.8 years are expected, and the mean value is 11.0. This implies that the next solar cycle will be started at December 2019.

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Short- and long-term analyses of composite beams with partial interaction stiffened by a longitudinal plate

  • Ranzi, Gianluca
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.237-255
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    • 2006
  • This paper presents a novel analytical formulation for the analysis of composite beams with partial shear interaction stiffened by a bolted longitudinal plate accounting for time effects, such as creep and shrinkage. The model is derived by means of the principle of virtual work using a displacement-based formulation. The particularity of this approach is that the partial interaction behaviour is assumed to exist between the top slab and the joist as well as between the joist and the bolted longitudinal stiffening plate, therefore leading to a three-layered structural representation. For this purpose, a novel finite element is derived and presented. Its accuracy is validated based on short-and long-term analyses for the particular cases of full shear interaction and partial shear interaction of two layers for which solutions in closed form are available in the literature. A parametric study is carried out considering different stiffening arrangements to investigate the influence on the short-and long-term behaviour of the composite beam of the shear connection stiffness between the concrete slab and the steel joist, the stiffness of the plate-to-beam connection, the properties of the longitudinal plate and the concrete properties. The values of the deflection obtained from the finite element simulations are compared against those calculated using the effective flexural rigidity in accordance with EC5 guidelines for the behaviour of elastic multi-layered beams with flexible connection and it is shown how the latter well predicts the structural response. The proposed numerical examples highlight the ease of use of the proposed approach in determining the effectiveness of different retrofitting solutions at service conditions.

A Novel Whale Optimized TGV-FCMS Segmentation with Modified LSTM Classification for Endometrium Cancer Prediction

  • T. Satya Kiranmai;P.V.Lakshmi
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.53-64
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    • 2023
  • Early detection of endometrial carcinoma in uterus is essential for effective treatment. Endometrial carcinoma is the worst kind of endometrium cancer among the others since it is considerably more likely to affect the additional parts of the body if not detected and treated early. Non-invasive medical computer vision, also known as medical image processing, is becoming increasingly essential in the clinical diagnosis of various diseases. Such techniques provide a tool for automatic image processing, allowing for an accurate and timely assessment of the lesion. One of the most difficult aspects of developing an effective automatic categorization system is the absence of huge datasets. Using image processing and deep learning, this article presented an artificial endometrium cancer diagnosis system. The processes in this study include gathering a dermoscopy images from the database, preprocessing, segmentation using hybrid Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) and optimizing the weights using the Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA). The characteristics of the damaged endometrium cells are retrieved using the feature extraction approach after the Magnetic Resonance pictures have been segmented. The collected characteristics are classified using a deep learning-based methodology called Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Bi-directional LSTM classifiers. After using the publicly accessible data set, suggested classifiers obtain an accuracy of 97% and segmentation accuracy of 93%.

Mediating Effects of Burnout between Emotional labor and Resilience for Nurses in Long-term care Hospitals (요양병원 간호사의 감정노동, 회복 탄력성이 소진에 미치는 영향)

  • Hyeon, Il-Seon;Lee, So-Young
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.353-359
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    • 2020
  • This study investigated the effects of emotional labor and resilience on burnout of long-term care hospital nurses. The study was conducted in D, B, and G cities, from May 23 2019 to June 5, 2019, enrolling 195 long-term care hospital nurses who had been on duty since 6 months. Means, standard deviations, Pearson correlation coefficients, t-tests, ANOVA, and multiple regression analysis of the SPSS 21.0 statistical program were applied for analyzing the data. Emotional labor (r= 0.476, p<0.005) and resilience (r= -0.416, p<0.005) showed significant differences associated with burnout in the long-term care hospital nurses, with all variables showing significant correlation. Regression analysis revealed that emotional labor (β= 0.37, p<0.001) and resilience (β= 0.17, p<0.048) were significant variables affecting the burnout of long-term care hospital nurses, and these variables explained 25.5% of adaptation to their burnout (F=23.51, p<0.001). Based on the results of this study, we propose the necessity to develop and utilize a program to manage emotional labor and resilience as a way to improve adaption for long-term care hospital nurses.

Analysis about relation of Won/Dollar Foreign Exchange Rate and Interest Rate of Korea (한국 원/달러환율과 금리의 관계분석)

  • 김종권
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.21 no.48
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    • pp.133-144
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    • 1998
  • International capital movement has made progress at global liberalization of finance and foreign exchange, international monetary norm changing into floating exchange rate system, easiness of collection of information and trade at improvement of information communication technology from early of 1970's. Results of empirical test for relation between foreign exchange rate or various determination factors of foreign exchange rate and interest rate are followed by next sentences. First, according to relation between foreign exchange rate and interest rate, correlation for each of variables after OECD entrance is increased. But, long-term & short-term interest rate is affected by Hanbo & Kia's bankruptcy, continuous large scale corporates bankruptcy and crisis of foreign exchange. Therefore, financial instability is occured. If portfolio investment fund has been inflow as it is mollified by continuous shortage of foreign exchange and fall of country's credit rating, it is expected to have positive effect for long-term & short-term interest rate from appreciation of won against dollar. Second, results from relation between determination factor of foreign exchange rate and interest rate are followed by next sentences. If surplus of current account and goods account is continued, yield of corporate bond is to be stable. But, margin of surplus is expected to diminish after second quarter 98, and difference between external and domestic interest (after adjusting foreign exchange rate) is to be diminished. And if net inflows of foreign investor's fund (stock and bond) is diminished, it is to have negative effect for yield of corporate bond. According to foreign investor's investment movement of previous years, hedge fund were stayed at least during two years in Mexico. It means that sudden capital outflow is not to be happened at Korea. But if external factors from depreciation of yen and China's renminbi are instable, interest rate is expected to increase from capital's outflows. Third, if it is to decrease instability of foreign exchange rate from increase in surplus of future current account, credit rating's upwardness, stability of yen and renminbi, foreign exchange rate is expected to be stable. It is expected to have continuous stability from short-term interest rate to long-term interest rate in this empirical test.

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