• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.31 no.1
• /
• pp.37-53
• /
• 2024

In this study, flood records from 79 sites across Thailand were analyzed to estimate flood indices using the regional frequency analysis based on the L-moments method. Observation sites were grouped into homogeneous regions using k-means and Ward's clustering techniques. Among various distributions evaluated, the generalized extreme value distribution emerged as the most appropriate for certain regions. Regional growth curves were subsequently established for each delineated region. Furthermore, 20- and 100-year return values were derived to illustrate the recurrence intervals of maximum rainfall across Thailand. The predicted return values tend to increase at each site, which is associated with growth curves that could describe an increasing long-term predictive pattern. The findings of this study hold significant implications for water management strategies and the design of flood mitigation structures in the country.

• Journal of Korean Port Research
• /
• v.15 no.1
• /
• pp.107-119
• /
• 2001

Disaster mitigation, especially as a concept similar to damage mitigation caused by heavy rainfalls and flood is closely related to long-term development plan. This plan of an harbor area where is located in lower region is established and carried under consideration of disaster mitigation concept such as internal drainage and so on. Flood damage is somewhat predictable in accordance with height, stream and rainfall characteristics of the region. Therefore it is necessary to establish national and urban plan under consideration of this fact. But this consideration of existing regulation and institution is insufficient and improvement of regulation and institution is needed. This consideration of disaster mitigation fields is regulated declaratively and inclusively in national plan which is established in broad region, and specifically and detailedly in urban plan which is established in narrow region. The program to improve regulation and institution is proposed in order to consider disaster mitigation fields as a level of this plan.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2022.05a
• /
• pp.35-35
• /
• 2022

최근에 딥 러닝(Deep learning) 기반의 많은 방법들이 수문학적 모형 및 예측에서 의미있는 결과를 보여주고 있지만 더 많은 연구가 요구되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 수자원의 가장 대표적인 모델링 구조인 강우유출의 관계의 규명에 대한 모형을 Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) 기반의 변형 된 방법으로 제시하고자 한다. 구체적으로 본 연구에서는 반응변수인 유출량에 대한 직접적인 고려가 아니라 그의 1차 도함수 (First derivative)로 정의되는 Delta기반으로 모형을 구축하였다. 또한, Attention 메카니즘 기반의 모형을 사용함으로써 강우유출의 관계의 규명에 있어 정확성을 향상시키고자 하였다. 마지막으로 확률 기반의 예측를 생성하고 이에 대한 불확실성의 고려를 위하여 Denisty 기반의 모형을 포함시켰고 이를 통하여 Epistemic uncertainty와 Aleatory uncertainty에 대한 상대적 정량화를 수행하였다. 본 연구에서 제시되는 모형의 효용성 및 적용성을 평가하기 위하여 미국 전역에 위치하는 총 507개의 유역의 일별 데이터를 기반으로 모형을 평가하였다. 결과적으로 본 연구에서 제시한 모형이 기존의 대표적인 딥 러닝 기반의 모형인 LSTM 모형과 비교하였을 때 높은 정확성뿐만 아니라 불확실성의 표현과 정량화에 대한 유용한 것으로 확인되었다.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
• /
• v.46 no.3
• /
• pp.277-290
• /
• 2011

Changes of the characteristics in summer rainfall in the Republic of Korea by the regime shift and their causes were examined by analyzing long-term observational data. There has been an abrupt increase in rainfall variability since 1998, which was mainly due to the enhanced rainfall during August~September, although the gradual increase was also detected in June~July. In June~July, the enhanced rainfall developed as a band type covering the whole East Asia while in August~September, it is only found over the Republic of Korea with the greatest increase of 130 mm over Seoul and Gyeonggi area. The two intensified anticyclonic anomalies over the north-northwest/east of the Republic of Korea resulted in producing northerlies/southeasterlies, transporting cold/warm-wet air flows, respectively. The center of the convergence zone from the two separate systems located in the Republic of Korea, leading to a favorable condition for the development of the extreme rainfall. The enhanced barotropic anticyclonic anomalies also affected in warming the sea surface temperature anomalies covering from the eastern coast of East Asia to North Pacific Ocean, which in turn leaded to enhance warm air transporting back to the Republic of Korea.

• Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
• /
• v.11 no.6
• /
• pp.57-67
• /
• 2010

Specific yield is an essential parameter of the water table fluctuation method for recharge calculation. Specific yield is not easily estimated because of limited availability of aquifer test data and soil samples at National Groundwater Monitoring Stations in South Korea. The linear relationship between rainfall and water level rise was used to estimate the specific yields of aquifer for 34 shallow monitoring wells which were grouped into three clusters. In the case of Cluster-1 and Cluster-2, this method was not applicable because of low cross correlation between rainfall and water level rise and also a long lag time of water level rise to rainfall. However, the specific yields for 19 monitoring wells belonging to Cluster-3, which have relatively high cross correlation and short lag time, within 2 days after rainfall, range from 0.06 to 0.27 with mean value of 0.17. These values are within the general range for sand and gravel sediments and similar to those from aquifer test data. A detailed field survey is required to identify monitoring sites that are not greatly affected by pumping, stream flow, evapotranspiration, or delayed response of water levels to rainfall, because these factors may cause overestimation of specific yield estimates.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.57 no.2
• /
• pp.127-137
• /
• 2024

Physical models, which are often used for water resource management, are difficult to build and operate with input data and may involve the subjective views of users. In recent years, research using data-driven models such as machine learning has been actively conducted to compensate for these problems in the field of water resources, and in this study, an artificial neural network was used to simulate long-term rainfall runoff in the Osipcheon watershed in Samcheok-si, Gangwon-do. For this purpose, three input data groups (meteorological observations, daily precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, and daily precipitation - potential evapotranspiration) were constructed from meteorological data, and the results of training the LSTM (Long Short-term Memory) artificial neural network model were compared and analyzed. As a result, the performance of LSTM-Model 1 using only meteorological observations was the highest, and six LSTM-MLP ensemble models with MLP artificial neural networks were built to simulate long-term runoff in the Fifty Thousand Watershed. The comparison between the LSTM and LSTM-MLP models showed that both models had generally similar results, but the MAE, MSE, and RMSE of LSTM-MLP were reduced compared to LSTM, especially in the low-flow part. As the results of LSTM-MLP show an improvement in the low-flow part, it is judged that in the future, in addition to the LSTM-MLP model, various ensemble models such as CNN can be used to build physical models and create sulfur curves in large basins that take a long time to run and unmeasured basins that lack input data.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
• /
• v.30 no.3
• /
• pp.58-68
• /
• 1988

Most of the Korean watersheds are mountaineous and consist of various soil types and land uses And seldom watersheds are found to have long term hydrologic records. The SNUA, a hydrologic watershed model was developed to meet the unique characteristics of Korean watershed and simulate the storm hydrographs from a small mountaineous watershed. Also the applicability of the model was tested by comparing the simulated storm hydrographs and the observed from Dochuk watershed, Gwangjugun, Kyunggido The conclusions obtained in this study could be summarized as follows ; 1. The model includes the simulation of interception, evaporation and infiltration for land surface hydrologic cycle on the single storm basis and the flow routing features for both overland and channel systems. 2. Net rainfall is estimated from the continuous computation of water balance at the surface of interception storage accounting for the rainfall intensities and the evaporation losses at each time step. 3. Excess rainfall is calculated by the abstraction of infiltration loss estimated by the Green and Ainpt Model from the net rainfall. 4. A momentum equation in the form of kinematic wave representation is solved by the finite differential method to obtain the runoff rate at the exit of the watershed. 5. The developed SNUA Model is a type of distributed and event model that considers the spatial distribution of the watershed parameters and simulates the hydrograph on a single storm basis. 6. The results of verification test show that the simulated peak flows agree with the observed in the occurence time but have relative enors in the range of 5.4-40.6% in various flow rates and also show that the simulated total runoff have 6.9-32% of relative errors against the observed. 7. To improve the applicability of the model, it was thought that more studies like the application test to the other watersheds of various types or the addition of the other hydrologk components describing subsurface storages are needed.

• Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
• /
• v.31
• /
• pp.3.1-3.11
• /
• 2016

Objectives This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Methods Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Results Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Conclusions Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.33 no.5
• /
• pp.1861-1870
• /
• 2013

A climate change-driven increased hydrological variability has been widely acknowledged over the past decades. In this regards, rainfall simulation techniques are being applied in many countries to consider the increased variability. This study proposed a Homogeneous Hidden Markov Chain(HMM) designed to recognize rather complex patterns of rainfall with discrete hidden states and underlying distribution characteristics via mixture probability density function. The proposed approach was applied to Seoul and Jeonju station to verify model's performance. Statistical moments(e.g. mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis) derived by daily and seasonal rainfall were compared with observation. It was found that the proposed HMM showed better performance in terms of reproducing underlying distribution characteristics. Especially, the HMM was much better than the existing Markov Chain model in reproducing extremes. In this regard, the proposed HMM could be used to evaluate a long-term runoff and design flood as inputs.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
• /
• v.14 no.4
• /
• pp.581-589
• /
• 2012

Non-point source pollutant is exerting a serious influence on the water quality, since the characteristics of stormwater runoff is varied by the land usage pattern of an area and a basin, and all sorts of pollutants on the earth in rainfall flow into the urban stream. This study estimated EMC of each pollutant to investigate the characteristics of stormwater runoff by separating the urban area as the housing area and industrial area. As a result of the analysis, the first flush effect occurred in the non-point source pollutant of housing area and industrial area, as the runoff concentration gradually reduces after it rapidly increases in the initial rainfall, and in case of the non-point source pollutant the control of first stage rain-water. It is considered to require the continuous follow-up study such as the scale of long-term rainfall event and water quality data, land usage pattern by GIS method, database of topography and geological features, and so forth.