• Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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• v.52 no.4
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• pp.281-289
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• 2016

Spinyhead sculpin Dasycottus setiger, a species of cold water fish, is distributed along the eastern coastal waters of Korea. A series of fishing experiments was carried out in the waters near Uljin from June, 2002 to November, 2004, using the experimental monofilament gill nets of different mesh sizes (82.2, 89.4, 104.8, and 120.2 mm) to describe the selectivity of the gill net for the fish. The SELECT (Share Each Length's Catch Total) analysis with maximum likelihood method was applied to fit the different functional models (normal, lognormal, and bi-normal models) for selection curves to the catch data. The bi-normal model with the fixed relative fishing intensity was selected as the best-fit selection curve by AIC (Akaike's Information Criterion) comparison. For the best-fit selection curve, the optimum relative length (the ratio of fish total length to mesh size) with the maximum efficiency and the selection range ($R_{50%,large}-R_{50%,small}$) of 50% retention were obtained as 2.363 and 0.851, respectively. The ratios of body girth to mesh perimeter at 100% retention where the selection curve of each mesh size represented the optimum total length were calculated as the range of 0.86 ~ 0.87.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.141-161
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• 2016

In seismic fragility and risk analysis, the definition of structural limit state (LS) capacities is of crucial importance. Traditionally, LS capacities are defined according to design code provisions or using deterministic pushover analysis without considering the inherent randomness of structural parameters. To assess the effects of structural randomness on LS capacities, ten structural parameters that include material strengths and gravity loads are considered as random variables, and a probabilistic pushover method based on a correlation-controlled Latin hypercube sampling technique is used to estimate the uncertainties in LS capacities for four typical reinforced concrete frame buildings. A series of ten LSs are identified from the pushover curves based on the design-code-given thresholds and the available damage-controlled criteria. The obtained LS capacities are further represented by a lognormal model with the median $m_C$ and the dispersion ${\beta}_C$. The results show that structural uncertainties have limited influence on $m_C$ for the LSs other than that near collapse. The commonly used assumption of ${\beta}_C$ between 0.25 and 0.30 overestimates the uncertainties in LS capacities for each individual building, but they are suitable for a building group with moderate damages. A low uncertainty as ${\beta}_C=0.1{\sim}0.15$ is adequate for the LSs associated with slight damages of structures, while a large uncertainty as ${\beta}_C=0.40{\sim}0.45$ is suggested for the LSs near collapse.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2020.06a
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• pp.317-317
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• 2020

수재해는 수자원 인프라의 부족 및 관리 미흡 등 많은 요인들이 있지만 강우의 유무와 크기가 가장 원초적인 요인들 중 하나이다. 정확한 강우량 추정 및 강우발생시간 예측은 수재해로 인한 피해를 예방하고 빠르게 대처할 수 있다. 그러나 강우예측에는 많은 불확실성을 내포하고 있기 때문에 이러한 불확실성을 이해하고 줄여 나가는 것이 필요하다. 최근 컴퓨터의 성능의 발전에 비례해 강우 예측 자료들도 점진적으로 발전을 거듭하고 있다. 이를 강우-유출 모형에 적용시 유출량 예측의 정확성 또한 비례하여 한층 더 발전할 수 있을 것이다. 하지만 신뢰성이 낮은 입력자료를 대상으로 하는 유출해석 모형은 많은 불확실성을 내포할 것이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 위천 유역에 대해 LENS(Limited area ENsemble prediction System) 강우앙상블 예측자료의 적용성을 검토하고 그리드 기반 강우 유출 모델 GRM(Grid based Rainfall-runoff Model) 에 적용하여 유출예측의 불확실성을 평가하고자 하였다. 또한 강우예측 및 유출예측은 수 많은 매개변수를 포함하며 최종적인 예측은 더 큰 불확실한 범위로 산출될 수 있다. 이에 따라 본 연구에서는 Python3 기반 코딩으로 LENS 자료 구축 및 GRM 모형의 매개변수 보정을 각 2000회 씩에 걸쳐 총 2회 실시하여 수문학적, 지형학적 인자에 따른 불확실성 범위를 보정하고자 하였다. 매개변수의 보정은 비정형우도(Informal likelihood) NSE, 정형우도(Formal likelihood) Lognormal(Log-likelihood function)의 우도에 따른 행위모델을 산정하여 보정하였다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 선행연구들을 참고한 정형, 비정형 우도의 임계치를 이용한 불확실성해석에 적용하였으며 이는 사용자의 행위모델선정 임계치 범위 선정으로 인한 불확실성을 줄여나감에 기여할 수 있을것으로 사료된다.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.125-148
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• 1993

Groundwater flow in fractured rock masses is controlled by combined effects of fracture networks, state of geostafic stresses and crossflow between fractures and rock matrix. Furthermore the scaie dependent, anisotropic properties of hydraulic parameters results mainly from irregular paftems of fracture system, which can not be evaluated properly with the methods available at present. The basic assumpfion of discrete fracture network model is that groundwater flows only along discrete fractures and the flow paths in rock mass are determined by geometric paftems of interconnected fractures. The characteristics of fracture distribution in space and fracture hydraulic parameters are represented as the probability density functions by stochastic simulation. The discrete fracture network modelling was aftempted to characterize the groundwater flow in the vicinity of existing large cavems located in Wonjeong-ri, Poseung-myon, Pyeungtaek-kun. The fracture data of $1\textrm{km}^2$ area were analysed. The result indicates that the fracture sets evaluated from an equal area projection can be grouped into 6 sets and the fracture sizes are distributed in longnormal. The conductive fracture density of set 1 shows the highest density of 0.37. The groundwater inflow into a carvem was calculated as 29ton/day with the fracture transmissivity of $10^{-8}\textrm{m}^2/s$. When the fracture transmissivity increases in an order, the inflow amount estimated increases dramatically as much as fold, i.e 651 ton/day. One of the great advantages of this model is a forward modelling which can provide a thinking tool for site characterization and allow to handle the quantitative data as well as qualitative data.

• Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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• v.43 no.3
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• pp.223-232
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• 2017

Objectives: In response to increased interest in the safety of children's products, a risk management system is being prepared through exposure assessment of hazardous chemicals. To estimate exposure levels, risk assessors are using deterministic and probabilistic approaches to statistical methodology and a commercialized Monte Carlo simulation based on tools (MCTool) to efficiently support calculation of the probability density functions. This study was conducted to analyze and discuss the usage patterns and problems associated with the results of these two approaches and MCTools used in the case of probabilistic approaches by reviewing research reports related to exposure assessment for children's products. Methods: We collected six research reports on exposure and risk assessment of children's products and summarized the deterministic results and corresponding underlying distributions for exposure dose and concentration results estimated through deterministic and probabilistic approaches. We focused on mechanisms and differences in the MCTools used for decision making with probabilistic distributions to validate the simulation adequacy in detail. Results: The estimation results of exposure dose and concentration from the deterministic approaches were 0.19-3.98 times higher than the results from the probabilistic approach. For the probabilistic approach, the use of lognormal, Student's T, and Weibull distributions had the highest frequency as underlying distributions of the input parameters. However, we could not examine the reasons for the selection of each distribution because of the absence of test-statistics. In addition, there were some cases estimating the discrete probability distribution model as the underlying distribution for continuous variables, such as weight. To find the cause of abnormal simulations, we applied two MCTools used for all reports and described the improper usage routes of MCTools. Conclusions: For transparent and realistic exposure assessment, it is necessary to 1) establish standardized guidelines for the proper use of the two statistical approaches, including notes by MCTool and 2) consider the development of a new software tool with proper configurations and features specialized for risk assessment. Such guidelines and software will make exposure assessment more user-friendly, consistent, and rapid in the future.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.1-25
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• 2016

This study investigated the variability of WTP estimates(i.e. mean or median) with ad hoc assumptions of specific parametric probability distributions(i.e. normal, logistic, lognormal, and exponential distribution) to estimate WTP function using dichotomous choice CV data on mortality risk reduction. From the perspective of policy decision, the variability of these WTP estimates are intolerable in comparison with those of Turnbull nonparametric estimation method which is free from ad hoc distribution assumptions. The Turnbull nonparametric estimation can avoid a kind of misspecification bias due to ad hoc assumption of specific parametric distributions. Furthermore, the WTP estimates by Turnbull nonparametric estimation are robust because the similar estimates are elicited from a dichotomous choice or double dichotomous choice CV data, and the statistically significant WTP estimates can be obtained even though it is not possible by parametric estimation methods. If there are considerable variability among those WTP estimates by parametric estimation methods in condition with no criteria of model adequacy, the mean WTPs from Turnbull nonparametric estimation can be the robust estimates without ad hoc assumptions, which can avoid controversial issues in the perspective of policy decisions.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.477-483
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• 2021

In a military maintenance system, the standard maintenance man-hour of weapon systems is a tool to estimate the maintenance capabilities of maintenance units, provide standards for determining the maintenance needs and workload, and provide basic data for establishing a maintenance plan. The standard maintenance man-hours of major weapon systems have already been derived and used, but the standard maintenance man-hour in a wartime maintenance environment has not been computed. Therefore, the standard wartime maintenance man-hours need to be derived and This study proposes a process and method of computing the maintenance man-hours. In addition, this work suggests the criteria of collecting and screening data that is necessary for estimating the standard maintenance man-hours and introduces a methodology for analyzing the characteristics of maintenance man-hour distribution in the process. The proposed process first designs a model that reflects the wartime maintenance environment, selects statistical techniques, collects maintenance data, analyzes the descriptive statistics, estimates the distribution, and finally presents representative values of maintenance man-hour. Based on the proposed method, the standard wartime maintenance man-hours of the four weapon systems were calculated, and the distribution of the maintenance man-hours was analyzed to follow a lognormal distribution, and the method presented reliable results.