• Title/Summary/Keyword: logistic model

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Modeling Exponential Growth in Population using Logistic, Gompertz and ARIMA Model: An Application on New Cases of COVID-19 in Pakistan

  • Omar, Zara;Tareen, Ahsan
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.192-200
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    • 2021
  • In the mid of the December 2019, the virus has been started to spread from China namely Corona virus. It causes fatalities globally and WHO has been declared as pandemic in the whole world. There are different methods which can fit such types of values which obtain peak and get flattened by the time. The main aim of the paper is to find the best or nearly appropriate modeling of such data. The three different models has been deployed for the fitting of the data of Coronavirus confirmed patients in Pakistan till the date of 20th November 2020. In this paper, we have conducted analysis based on data obtained from National Institute of Health (NIH) Islamabad and produced a forecast of COVID-19 confirmed cases as well as the number of deaths and recoveries in Pakistan using the Logistic model, Gompertz model and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA) model. The fitted models revealed high exponential growth in the number of confirmed cases, deaths and recoveries in Pakistan.

Development of the Machine Learning-based Employment Prediction Model for Internship Applicants (인턴십 지원자를 위한 기계학습기반 취업예측 모델 개발)

  • Kim, Hyun Soo;Kim, Sunho;Kim, Do Hyun
    • Journal of the Semiconductor & Display Technology
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.138-143
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    • 2022
  • The employment prediction model proposed in this paper uses 16 independent variables, including self-introductions of M University students who applied for IPP and work-study internship, and 3 dependent variable data such as large companies, mid-sized companies, and unemployment. The employment prediction model for large companies was developed using Random Forest and Word2Vec with the result of F1_Weighted 82.4%. The employment prediction model for medium-sized companies and above was developed using Logistic Regression and Word2Vec with the result of F1_Weighted 73.24%. These two models can be actively used in predicting employment in large and medium-sized companies for M University students in the future.

Binary regression model using skewed generalized t distributions (기운 일반화 t 분포를 이용한 이진 데이터 회귀 분석)

  • Kim, Mijeong
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.775-791
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    • 2017
  • We frequently encounter binary data in real life. Logistic, Probit, Cauchit, Complementary log-log models are often used for binary data analysis. In order to analyze binary data, Liu (2004) proposed a Robit model, in which the inverse of cdf of the Student's t distribution is used as a link function. Kim et al. (2008) also proposed a generalized t-link model to make the binary regression model more flexible. The more flexible skewed distributions allow more flexible link functions in generalized linear models. In the sense, we propose a binary data regression model using skewed generalized t distributions introduced in Theodossiou (1998). We implement R code of the proposed models using the glm function included in R base and R sgt package. We also analyze Pima Indian data using the proposed model in R.

Korea-specified Maximum Expected Utility Model for the Probability of Default (기대효용최대화를 통한 한국형 기업 신용평가 모형)

  • Park, You-Sung;Song, Ji-Hyun;Choi, Bo-Seung
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.573-584
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    • 2007
  • A well estimated probability of default is most important for constructing a good credit scoring process. The maximum expected utility (MEU) model has been suggested as an alternative of the traditional logistic regression model. Because the MEU model has been constructed using financial data arising from North America and European countries, the MEU model may not be suitable to Korean private firms. Thus, we propose a Korea-specific MEU model by estimating the parameters involved in kernel functions. This Korea-specific MEU model is illustrated using 34,057 private firms to show the performance of the MEU model relative to the usual logistic regression model.

A Historical Review on Discrete Models of Population Changes and Illustrative Analysis Methods Using Computer Softwares (개체 수 변화에 대한 이산적 모델의 역사적 개요와 컴퓨터 소프트웨어를 이용하는 시각적 분석 방법)

  • Shim, Seong-A
    • Journal for History of Mathematics
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.197-210
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    • 2014
  • Species like insects and fishes have, in many cases, non-overlapping time intervals of one generation and their descendant one. So the population dynamics of such species can be formulated as discrete models. In this paper various discrete population models are introduced in chronological order. The author's investigation starts with the Malthusian model suggested in 1798, and continues through Verhulst model(the discrete logistic model), Ricker model, the Beverton-Holt stock-recruitment model, Shep-herd model, Hassell model and Sigmoid type Beverton-Holt model. We discuss the mathematical and practical significance of each model and analyze its properties. Also the stability properties of stationary solutions of the models are studied analytically and illustratively using GSP, a computer software. The visual outputs generated by GSP are compared with the analytical stability results.

Research on Financial Distress Prediction Model of Chinese Cultural Industry Enterprises Based on Machine Learning and Traditional Statistical (전통적인 통계와 기계학습 기반 중국 문화산업 기업의 재무적 곤경 예측모형 연구)

  • Yuan, Tao;Wang, Kun;Luan, Xi;Bae, Ki-Hyung
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.545-558
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to explore a prediction model for accurately predicting Financial Difficulties of Chinese Cultural Industry Enterprises through Traditional Statistics and Machine Learning. To construct the prediction model, the data of 128 listed Cultural Industry Enterprises in China are used. On the basis of data groups composed of 25 explanatory variables, prediction models using Traditional Statistical such as Discriminant Analysis and logistic as well as Machine Learning such as SVM, Decision Tree and Random Forest were constructed, and Python software was used to evaluate the performance of each model. The results show that the Random Forest model has the best prediction performance, with an accuracy of 95%. The SVM model was followed with 93% accuracy. The Decision Tree model was followed with 92% accuracy.The Discriminant Analysis model was followed with 89% accuracy. The model with the lowest prediction effect was the Logistic model with an accuracy of 88%. This shows that Machine Learning model can achieve better prediction effect than Traditional Statistical model when predicting financial distress of Chinese cultural industry enterprises.

A Development of a Tailored Follow up Management Model Using the Data Mining Technique on Hypertension (데이터마이닝 기법을 활용한 맞춤형 고혈압 사후관리 모형 개발)

  • Park, Il-Su;Yong, Wang-Sik;Kim, Yu-Mi;Kang, Sung-Hong;Han, Jun-Tae
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.639-647
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    • 2008
  • This study used the characteristics of the knowledge discovery and data mining algorithms to develop tailored hypertension follow up management model - hypertension care predictive model and hypertension care compliance segmentation model - for hypertension management using the Korea National Health Insurance Corporation database(the insureds’ screening and health care benefit data). This study validated the predictive power of data mining algorithms by comparing the performance of logistic regression, decision tree, and ensemble technique. On the basis of internal and external validation, it was found that the model performance of logistic regression method was the best among the above three techniques on hypertension care predictive model and hypertension care compliance segmentation model was developed by Decision tree analysis. This study produced several factors affecting the outbreak of hypertension using screening. It is considered to be a contributing factor towards the nation’s building of a Hypertension follow up Management System in the near future by bringing forth representative results on the rise and care of hypertension.

A Prediction Model of Landslides in the Tertiary Sedimentary Rocks and Volcanic Rocks Area (제3기 퇴적암 및 화산암 분포지의 산사태 예측모델)

  • Chae Byung-Gon;Kim Won-Young;Na Jong-Hwa;Cho Yong-Chan;Kim Kyeong-Su;Lee Choon-Oh
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.14 no.4 s.41
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    • pp.443-450
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    • 2004
  • This study developed a prediction model of debris flow to predict a landslide probability on natural terrain composed of the Tertiary sedimentary and volcanic rocks using a logistic regression analysis. The landslides data were collected around Pohang, Gyeongbuk province where more than 100 landslides were occurred in 1998. Considered with basic characteristics of the logistic regression analysis, field survey and laboratory soil tests were performed for both slided points and not-slided points. The final iufluential factors on landslides were selected as six factors by the logistic regression analysis. The six factors are composed of two topographic factors and four geologic factors. The developed landslide prediction model has more than $90\%$ of prediction accuracy. Therefore, it is possible to make probabilistic and quantitative prediction of landslide occurrence using the developed model in this study area as well as the previously developed model for metamorphic and granitic rocks.

Geographically weighted kernel logistic regression for small area proportion estimation

  • Shim, Jooyong;Hwang, Changha
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.531-538
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    • 2016
  • In this paper we deal with the small area estimation for the case that the response variables take binary values. The mixed effects models have been extensively studied for the small area estimation, which treats the spatial effects as random effects. However, when the spatial information of each area is given specifically as coordinates it is popular to use the geographically weighted logistic regression to incorporate the spatial information by assuming that the regression parameters vary spatially across areas. In this paper, relaxing the linearity assumption and propose a geographically weighted kernel logistic regression for estimating small area proportions by using basic principle of kernel machine. Numerical studies have been carried out to compare the performance of proposed method with other methods in estimating small area proportion.

Performance Comparison of Mahalanobis-Taguchi System and Logistic Regression : A Case Study (마할라노비스-다구치 시스템과 로지스틱 회귀의 성능비교 : 사례연구)

  • Lee, Seung-Hoon;Lim, Geun
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.39 no.5
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    • pp.393-402
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    • 2013
  • The Mahalanobis-Taguchi System (MTS) is a diagnostic and predictive method for multivariate data. In the MTS, the Mahalanobis space (MS) of reference group is obtained using the standardized variables of normal data. The Mahalanobis space can be used for multi-class classification. Once this MS is established, the useful set of variables is identified to assist in the model analysis or diagnosis using orthogonal arrays and signal-to-noise ratios. And other several techniques have already been used for classification, such as linear discriminant analysis and logistic regression, decision trees, neural networks, etc. The goal of this case study is to compare the ability of the Mahalanobis-Taguchi System and logistic regression using a data set.