• Title/Summary/Keyword: logistic 함수

Search Result 106, Processing Time 0.025 seconds

The Study on the Risk Predict Method and Government Funds Supporting for Small and Medium Enterprises (로짓분석을 통한 중소기업 정책자금 지원의 위험예측력에 대한 연구)

  • Choi, Chang-Yeoul;Ham, Hyung-Bum
    • Management & Information Systems Review
    • /
    • v.28 no.3
    • /
    • pp.1-23
    • /
    • 2009
  • Prior bankruptcy studies have established that bankrupt firm's pre-filing financial ratios are different from those of healthy firms or of randomly selected going concerns. However, they may not be sufficiently different from the financial ratios of other firms in financial distress to allow the development of a ratio-based model that predicts bankruptcy with reasonable accuracy. As the result, in the multiple discriminant model, independent variables divided firms into bankrupt firms and healthy firms are retained earnings to total asset, receivable turnover, net income to sales, financial expenses, inventory turnover, owner's equity to total asset, cash flow to current liability, and current asset to current liability. Moreover four variables Retained earnings to total asset, net income to sales, total asset turnover, owner's equity to total asset indicate that these valuables classify bankrupt firms and distress firms. On the other hand, Owner's Equity to borrowed capital, Ordinary income to Net Sales, Operating Income to Total Asset, Total Asset Turnover and Inventory Turnover are selected to predict bankruptcy possibility in the Logistic regression model.

  • PDF

Estimating design floods for ungauged basins in the geum-river basin through regional flood frequency analysis using L-moments method (L-모멘트법을 이용한 지역홍수빈도분석을 통한 금강유역 미계측 유역의 설계홍수량 산정)

  • Lee, Jin-Young;Park, Dong-Hyeok;Shin, Ji-Yae;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.49 no.8
    • /
    • pp.645-656
    • /
    • 2016
  • The study performed a regional flood frequency analysis and proposed a regression equation to estimate design floods corresponding to return periods for ungauged basins in Geum-river basin. Five preliminary tests were employed to investigate hydrological independence and homogeneity of streamflow data, i.e. the lag-one autocorrelation test, time homogeneity test, Grubbs-Beck outlier test, discordancy measure test ($D_i$), and regional homogeneity measure (H). The test results showed that streamflow data were time-independent, discordant and homogeneous within the basin. Using five probability distributions (generalized extreme value (GEV), three-parameter log-normal (LN-III), Pearson type 3 (P-III), generalized logistic (GLO), generalized Pareto (GPA)), comparative regional flood frequency analyses were carried out for the region. Based on the L-moment ratio diagram, average weighted distance (AWD) and goodness-of-fit statistics ($Z^{DIST}$), the GLO distribution was selected as the best fit model for Geum-river basin. Using the GLO, a regression equation was developed for estimating regional design floods, and validated by comparing the estimated and observed streamflows at the Ganggyeong station.

A study on the properties of sensitivity analysis in principal component regression and latent root regression (주성분회귀와 고유값회귀에 대한 감도분석의 성질에 대한 연구)

  • Shin, Jae-Kyoung;Chang, Duk-Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
    • /
    • v.20 no.2
    • /
    • pp.321-328
    • /
    • 2009
  • In regression analysis, the ordinary least squares estimates of regression coefficients become poor, when the correlations among predictor variables are high. This phenomenon, which is called multicollinearity, causes serious problems in actual data analysis. To overcome this multicollinearity, many methods have been proposed. Ridge regression, shrinkage estimators and methods based on principal component analysis (PCA) such as principal component regression (PCR) and latent root regression (LRR). In the last decade, many statisticians discussed sensitivity analysis (SA) in ordinary multiple regression and same topic in PCR, LRR and logistic principal component regression (LPCR). In those methods PCA plays important role. Many statisticians discussed SA in PCA and related multivariate methods. We introduce the method of PCR and LRR. We also introduce the methods of SA in PCR and LRR, and discuss the properties of SA in PCR and LRR.

  • PDF

Relationship between the State of Decision Making Recognition Technology for Daily Living and Activities of Daily Living(ADL) of Inpatients in Geriatric Hospital on the Patient Core Card (환자평가표에 의한 요양병원 입원 노인들의 일상생활사 의사결정 인식기술 상태와 일상생활수행능력 간의 관계)

  • Lim, Jung-Do;Lee, Sung-Ho
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
    • /
    • v.14 no.11
    • /
    • pp.328-336
    • /
    • 2014
  • This work has performed to find what activities of daily living are required for the intensive interests when inpatient elderly more than 3 months has been supported and convalescent care, where the inpatient elderly were judged by the inpatient assessment report in the time of December, 2013. According to the estimation with logistic function of the relationship between the state of decision making recognition technology and the Activities of Daily Living(ADL), the intensive cares for the elderly are required in the parameters of 'Having meal' and 'transferring sitting' when they are severed and convalescently cared as the degree of functional independence for ADL are severly proceeded. In addition, the senescence and disease the activities except 'Having meal' and 'transferring sitting' seem to be influenced by the decline of body function more than the state of decision making recognition technology for daily living.

Reliability Analysis of cooler in Thermal Observation Device (열상감시장비의 냉각기 신뢰도 분석)

  • Hong, Seok-Jin;Jung, Yun-Sik;Kim, Jin-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.17 no.11
    • /
    • pp.432-436
    • /
    • 2016
  • The cooler, which is the main part in a Thermal Observation Device (TOD), makes the TOD function by reducing the temperature. As the cooler is imported, overseas enterprises presented 20,000 hours as the operation time and the military have used the cooler as presented. However, failures have occurred occasionally after mass production stage. Therefore, we need to analyze the MTBF of the TOD cooler. So, military and defense industry companies collected the failure data of the TOD cooler. We analyze the MTBF of the TOD cooler using survival probability function and failure data. We find the optimal distribution by applying parametric method and estimate parameters. We determine that the Log-logistic distribution is the most appropriate for this data. Also, we analyze the reliability per hour of the TOD cooler. The result of MTBF of the TOD cooler was higher than that of presented by oversee enterprises.

A Study on Cost Optimization of Preventive Maintenance for the Second Driving Devices for Korea Train Express (KTX 2차 구동장치에 대한 예방정비 비용의 최적화에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Jin-Tae;Kim, Chul-Su
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.17 no.2
    • /
    • pp.1-7
    • /
    • 2016
  • Although the second driving device of KTX, which consists of the wheel and the axle reduction gears unit, is a mechanically integrated structure, its preventive maintenance (PM) requires two separate intervals due to the different technical requirements. In particular, these subsystems perform attaching and detaching work simultaneously according to the maintenance directive. Therefore, to reduce the unnecessary amount of PM and high logistic availability of the train, it is important to optimize PM with regard to reliability-centered maintenance toward a cost-effective solution. In this study, fault tree analysis and reliability of the subsystems, considering the criticality of the components, were performed using the data derived from field data in maintenance. The cost optimization of the PM was derived from a genetic algorithm considering the target reliability and improvement factor. The cost optimization was derived from a maximum of the fitness function of the individual in generation. The optimal TBO of them using the genetic algorithm was 2.85x106 km, which is reduced to approximately 21% compared to the conventional method.

Searching for an Optimal Level of Cash Holdings for Korean Chaebols (국내 재벌 계열사들의 최적 현금유동성 수준에 대한 실증적 분석)

  • Kim, Hanjoon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.16 no.10
    • /
    • pp.7118-7125
    • /
    • 2015
  • This study examined one of the concerned or even imperative issues in the field of contemporary finance related to approaching an optimal level of cash holdings for the firms belonging to the chaebols in the Korean domestic capital markets. However, the subject may not have been drawn much attention so far, even if there are still ongoing and active debates among the interest parties at the macro- or micro-level. Two primary hypotheses were postulated to be empirically tested. On the results of the first hypothesis test for the existence of an optimal cash reserves for the sample firms, two estimation techniques were performed in terms of a quadratic regression equation and a relationship between a firm's value and the residuals derived from the static panel date model. As a primary financial implication of the study which may contribute to the practitioners and the academics in finance, the optimal level of cash holdings can be estimated by controlling for the a priori significant components for the sample firms towards maximizing firm value.

Discriminant Prediction Function and Its Affecting Factors of Private Hospital Closure by Using Multivariate Discriminant Analysis and Logistic Regression Models (다변량 판별분석과 로지스틱 회귀모형을 이용한 민간병원의 도산예측 함수와 영향요인)

  • Jung, Yong-Mo;Lee, Yong-Chul
    • Health Policy and Management
    • /
    • v.20 no.3
    • /
    • pp.123-137
    • /
    • 2010
  • The main purpose of this article is for deriving functions related to the prediction of the closure of the hospitals, and finding out how the discriminant functions affect the closure of the hospitals. Empirical data were collected from 3 years financial statements of 41 private hospitals closed down from 2000 till 2006 and 62 private hospitals in business till now. As a result, the functions related to the prediction of the closure of the private hospital are 4 indices: Return on Assets, Operating Margin, Normal Profit Total Assets, Interest expenses to Total borrowings and bonds payable. From these discriminant functions predicting the closure, I found that the profitability indices - Return on Assets, Operating Margin, Normal Profit Total Assets - are the significant affecting factors. The discriminant functions predicting the closure of the group of the hospitals, 3 years before the closure were Normal Profit to Gross Revenues, Total borrowings and bonds payable to total assets, Total Assets Turnover, Total borrowings and bonds payable to Revenues, Interest expenses to Total borrowings and bonds payable and among them Normal Profit to Gross Revenues, Total borrowings and bonds payable to total assets, Total Assets Turnover, Total borrowings and bonds payable to Revenues are the significant affecting factors. However 2 years before the closure, the discriminant functions predicting the closure of the hospital were Interest expenses to Total borrowings and bonds payable and it was the significant affecting factor. And, one year before the closure, the discriminant functions predicting the closure were Total Assets Turnover, Fixed Assets Turnover, Growth Rate of Total Assets, Growth Rate of Revenues, Interest expenses to Revenues, Interest expenses to Total borrowings and bonds payable. Among them, Total Assets Turnover, Growth Rate of Revenues, Interest expenses to Revenues were the significant affecting factors.

An Improvement of Recognition Performance Based on Nonlinear Equalization and Statistical Correlation (비선형 평활화와 통계적 상관성에 기반을 둔 인식성능 개선)

  • Shin, Hyun-Soo;Cho, Yong-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
    • /
    • v.22 no.5
    • /
    • pp.555-562
    • /
    • 2012
  • This paper presents a hybrid method for improving the recognition performance, which is based on the nonlinear histogram equalization, features extraction, and statistical correlation of images. The nonlinear histogram equalization based on a logistic function is applied to adaptively improve the quality by adjusting the brightness of the image according to its intensity level frequency. The statistical correlation that is measured by the normalized cross-correlation(NCC) coefficient, is applied to rapidly and accurately express the similarity between the images. The local features based on independent component analysis(ICA) that is used to calculate the NCC, is also applied to statistically measure the correct similarity in each images. The proposed method has been applied to the problem for recognizing the 30-face images of 40*50 pixels. The experimental results show that the proposed method has a superior recognition performances to the method without performing the preprocessing, or the methods of conventional and adaptively modified histogram equalization, respectively.

Estimation of Optimal Modal Split Considering the Subsidy Policy - In the Case of Dual Mode Trailer (보조금 정책을 고려한 적정 수송 분담률 추정 모형 - Dual Mode Trailer(DMT) 사례를 중심으로)

  • Park, Bum-Hwan;Kim, Chung-Soo;Lee, Kang-Won
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
    • /
    • v.12 no.2
    • /
    • pp.205-211
    • /
    • 2009
  • There is need to reform the road-based logistic transportation system into the railway-based logistics transportation system in order to decrease the total social cost related with logistics transportation. And new transportation modes such as dual mode trailer (DMT) are under consideration, which are expected to decrease current market share of road. But, most of current studies about estimating economical efficiency are focused on developing the probabilistic choice model and then estimating the market share of each mode. We present an approach to compute the optimal market share of each mode in terms of total social cost. To do so, we suggest an optimization model capturing both user choice to maximize his utility and subsidy policy intended to minimize total social cost, simultaneously. Using this model, we present the optimal modal split of container freight.