• 제목/요약/키워드: log-likelihood ratio

검색결과 141건 처리시간 0.015초

스캔통계량 분석을 통한 상수도 누수 및 수질 민원 발생 클러스터 탐색 (Cluster exploration of water pipe leak and complaints surveillance using a spatio-temporal statistical analysis)

  • 이주원;김은주;남숙현;황태문
    • 상하수도학회지
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    • 제37권5호
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    • pp.261-269
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    • 2023
  • In light of recent social concerns related to issues such as water supply pipe deterioration leading to problems like leaks and degraded water quality, the significance of maintenance efforts to enhance water source quality and ensure a stable water supply has grown substantially. In this study, scan statistic was applied to analyze water quality complaints and water leakage accidents from 2015 to 2021 to present a reasonable method to identify areas requiring improvement in water management. SaTScan, a spatio-temporal statistical analysis program, and ArcGIS were used for spatial information analysis, and clusters with high relative risk (RR) were determined using the maximum log-likelihood ratio, relative risk, and Monte Carlo hypothesis test for I city, the target area. Specifically, in the case of water quality complaints, the analysis results were compared by distinguishing cases occurring before and after the onset of "red water." The period between 2015 and 2019 revealed that preceding the occurrence of red water, the leak cluster at location L2 posed a significantly higher risk (RR: 2.45) than other regions. As for water quality complaints, cluster C2 exhibited a notably elevated RR (RR: 2.21) and appeared concentrated in areas D and S, respectively. On the other hand, post-red water incidents of water quality complaints were predominantly concentrated in area S. The analysis found that the locations of complaint clusters were similar to those of red water incidents. Of these, cluster C7 exhibited a substantial RR of 4.58, signifying more than a twofold increase compared to pre-incident levels. A kernel density map analysis was performed using GIS to identify priority areas for waterworks management based on the central location of clusters and complaint cluster RR data.