• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.26 no.3
• /
• pp.199-209
• /
• 2008

This paper is described the concepts and limitations for the traditional directional design hour volume estimation. The main objective of this paper is to establish an estimation method of probabilistic directional design hour volume in order to improve the limitation for the traditional approach method. To express the traffic congestion of specific road segment, this paper proposed the link travel time as the probability that the road capacity can accommodate a certain traffic demand at desired service level. Also, the link travel time threshold was derived from chance-constrained stochastic model. Such successive probabilistic process could determine optimal ranked design hour volume and directional design hour volume. Therefore, the probabilistic directional design hour volume can consider the traffic congestion and economic aspect in road planning and design stage. It is hoped that this study will provide a better understanding of various issues involved in the short term prediction of directional design hourly volume on different types of roads.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
• /
• v.6 no.2
• /
• pp.34-44
• /
• 2007

Many urban cities deployed ITS technologies to improve the efficiency of traffic operation and management including a real-time franc control system (i.e., COSMOS). The system adopted loop detector system to collect traffic information such as volume, occupancy time, degree of saturation, and queue length. This paper investigated the applicability of detector information within COSMOS to represent the congestion level of the links. Initially, link travel times obtained from the field study were related with each of detector information. Results showed that queue length was highly correlated with link travel time, and direct link travel time estimation using the spot speed data produced high estimation error rates. From this analysis, a procedure was proposed to estimate congestion level of the links using both degree of saturation and queue length information.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.26 no.4D
• /
• pp.559-564
• /
• 2006

The purpose of this study is to minimize negative effect of VMS travel time information service by sensitivity analysis, which forecasts the change in link traffic volume. As a result, strategies for providing travel information that can change driving patterns for minimizing travel time were found. The framework for analysis is recently expanded with the application of game theory. According to the experiment, the algorithm generated for travel time information service reduces total travel time and yields travel patterns that is very close to the system optimization. Also, this study found that the route the travel time service information is provided about could play the important role.

• Journal of Korea Spatial Information System Society
• /
• v.10 no.3
• /
• pp.31-43
• /
• 2008

Travel time prediction is an indispensable to many advanced traveler information systems(ATIS) and intelligent transportation systems(ITS). In this paper we propose a method to predict travel time using $Na{\ddot{i}}ve$ Bayesian classification method which has exhibited high accuracy and processing speed when applied to classily large amounts of data. Our proposed prediction algorithm is also scalable to road networks with arbitrary travel routes. For a given route, we consider time-varying average segment velocity to perform more accuracy of travel time prediction. We compare the proposed method with the existing prediction algorithms like link-based prediction algorithm [1] and Micro T* algorithm [2]. It is shown from the performance comparison that the proposed predictor can reduce MARE (mean absolute relative error) significantly, compared with the existing predictors.

• Journal of Distribution Science
• /
• v.14 no.2
• /
• pp.41-45
• /
• 2016

Purpose - Finding an optimal path is an essential component for the design and operation of smart transportation or logistics network. Many applications in navigation system assume that travel time of each link is fixed and same. However, in practice, the travel time of each link changes over time. In this paper, we introduce a new transportation problem to find a latest departing time and delivery path between the two nodes, while not violating the appointed time at the destination node. Research design, data, and methodology - To solve the problem, we suggest a mathematical model based on network optimization theory and a backward search method to find an optimal solution. Results - First, we introduce a dynamic transportation problem which is different with traditional shortest path or minimum cost path. Second, we propose an algorithm solution based on backward search to solve the problem in a large-sized network. Conclusions - We proposed a new transportation problem which is different with traditional shortest path or minimum cost path. We analyzed the problem under the conditions that travel time is changing, and proposed an algorithm to solve them. Extending our models for visiting two or more destinations is one of the further research topics.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
• /
• v.8 no.10
• /
• pp.76-87
• /
• 2008

Prediction of travel time on road network is one of crucial research issue in dynamic route guidance system. A new approach based on Rule-Based classification is proposed for predicting travel time. This approach departs from many existing prediction models in that it explicitly consider traffic patterns during day time as well as week day. We can predict travel time accurately by considering both traffic condition of time range in a day and traffic patterns of vehicles in a week. We compare the proposed method with the existing prediction models like Link-based, Micro-T* and Switching model. It is also revealed that proposed method can reduce MARE (mean absolute relative error) significantly, compared with the existing predictors.

• Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
• /
• 1999.10a
• /
• pp.458-462
• /
• 1999

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
• /
• v.16 no.5
• /
• pp.134-143
• /
• 2017

In the case of highway, there may be a large number of travel time groups when there are a bus exclusive lane, a rest area, a sleeping shelter, etc. in the corresponding section. In most of the conventional travel time estimation studies, one representative travel time (assuming normal distribution) group is assumed in the low sample collection state, and if it is out of the specified range, it is determined as outliers and then the travel time is estimated. However, if there is a bus exclusive lane, a rest area, or a sleeping shelter in the relevant section, such as the highway, the distribution of travel time will be in the form of a bi-modal or a multi-modal, rather than a regular distribution. Therefore, applying the existing estimation methodology may result in distorted results. To solve this problem, first, it should be reliable even in the case of insufficient number of samples. Second, we propose a methodology to select the representative time group among a number of time groups and to estimate the representative time using individual time data of the selected time group.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
• /
• v.8 no.2
• /
• pp.14-26
• /
• 2009

This study presented a novel method to estimate travel times under incident conditions. Predictive travel time information was defined and evaluated with the proposed method. The proposed method utilized individual vehicle speeds obtained from global positioning systems (GPS) and inter-vehicle communications(IVC) for more reliable real-time travel times. Individual vehicle trajectory data were extracted from microscopic traffic simulations using AIMSUN. Market penetration rates (MPR) and IVC ranges were explored with the accuracy of travel times. Relationship among travel time accuracy, IVC ranges, and MPR were further identified using regression analyses. The outcomes of this study would be useful to derive functional requirements associated with traffic information systems under forthcoming ubiquitous transportation environment

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
• /
• v.16 no.3
• /
• pp.119-129
• /
• 2014

PURPOSES : This investigational survey is to observe a proper spatial aggregation method for path travel time estimation using the hi-pass DSRC system. METHODS : The links which connect the nodes of section detectors location are used for path travel time estimation traditionally. It makes some problem such as increasing accumulation errors and processing times. In this background, the new links composition methods for spatial aggregation are considered by using some types of nodes as IC, JC, RSE combination. Path travel times estimated by new aggregation methods are compared with PBM travel times by MAE, MAPE and statistical hypothesis tests. RESULTS : The results of minimum sample size and missing rate for 5 minutes aggregation interval are satisfied except for JC link path travel time in Seoul TG~Kuemho JC. Thus, it was additionally observed for minimum sample size satisfaction. In 15, 30 minutes and 1 hour aggregation intervals, all conditions are satisfied by the minimum sample size criteria. For accuracy test and statistical hypothesis test, it has been proved that RSE, Conzone, IC, JC links have equivalent errors and statistical characteristics. CONCLUSIONS : There are some errors between the PBM and the LBM methods that come from dropping vehicles by rest areas. Consequently, this survey result means each of links compositions are available for the estimation of path travel time when PBM vehicles are missed.