• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.58 no.5
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• pp.281-293
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• 2021

Oil and steel prices, which are major pricescosts in the shipbuilding industry, were predicted. Firstly, the error of the moving average line (N=3-5) was examined, and in all three error analyses, the moving average line (N=3) was small. Secondly, in the linear prediction of data through existing theory, oil prices rise slightly, and steel prices rise sharply, but in reality, linear prediction using existing data was not satisfactory. Thirdly, we identified the limitations of linear prediction methods and confirmed that oil and steel price prediction was somewhat similar to actual moving average line prediction methods. Due to the high volatility of major price flows, large errors were inevitable in the forecast section. Through the time series analysis method at the end of this paper, we were able to achieve not bad results in all analysis items relative to artificial intelligence (Prophet). Predictive data through predictive analysis using eight predictive models are expected to serve as a good research foundation for developing unique tools or establishing evaluation systems in the future. This study compares the basic settings of artificial intelligence programs with the results of core price prediction in the shipbuilding industry through time series prediction theory, and further studies the various hyper-parameters and event effects of Prophet in the future, leaving room for improvement of predictability.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.14 no.5
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• pp.189-199
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• 2012

PURPOSES: The purpose of this study is to propose a new methodology for developing statistical collision models and to show the validation results of the methodology. METHODS: A new modeling method of introducing variables into the model one by one in a multiplicative form is suggested. A method for choosing explanatory variables to be introduced into the model is explained. A method for determining functional forms for each explanatory variable is introduced as well as a parameter estimating procedure. A model selection method is also dealt with. Finally, the validation results is provided to demonstrate the efficacy of the final models developed using the method suggested in this study. RESULTS: According to the results of the validation for the total and injury collisions, the predictive powers of the models developed using the method suggested in this study were better than those of generalized linear models for the same data. CONCLUSIONS: Using the methodology suggested in this study, we could develop better statistical collision models having better predictive powers. This was because the methodology enabled us to find the relationships between dependant variable and each explanatory variable individually and to find the functional forms for the relationships which can be more likely non-linear.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.38 no.6
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• pp.801-808
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• 2018

The learning of the linear regression model is stable on the assumption that the sample size is sufficiently larger than the number of explanatory variables and there is no serious multicollinearity between explanatory variables. In this study, we investigated the difficulty of model learning when the assumption was violated by analyzing a real heavy rain damage data and we proposed to use a principal component regression model or a ridge regression model after integrating data to overcome the difficulty. We evaluated the predictive performance of the proposed models by using the test data independent from the training data, and confirmed that the proposed methods showed better predictive performances than the linear regression model.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.38 no.1
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• pp.35-41
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• 2010

In developing modern aircraft, the reconfiguration control that can improve the safety and the survivability against the unexpected failure by partitioning control surfaces into several parts has been actively studied. This paper deals with the reconfiguration control using model predictive control method considering the saturation of control surfaces under the control surface failure. Linearized aircraft model at trim condition is used as the internal model of model predictive control. We propose the controller that performs optimization using LMI (linear matrix inequalities) based semi-definite programming in case that control surface saturation occurs, otherwise, uses analytic solution of the model predictive control. The performance of the proposed control method is evaluated by nonlinear simulation under the flight scenario of control surface failure.

• Journal of Industrial Convergence
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• v.20 no.12
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• pp.179-186
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• 2022

This study aims to develop a predictive model to suggest a used sales price to sellers and buyers when trading used tablet PCs. For model development, we analyzed the real used tablet PC transaction data and additionally collected detailed product information. We developed several predictive models and selected the best predictive model among them. Specifically, we considered a multiple linear regression model using the used sales price as a dependent variable and other variables in the integrated data as independent variables, a multiple linear regression model including interactions, and the models from stepwise variable selection in each model. The model with the best predictive performance was finally selected through cross-validation. Through this study, we can predict the sales price of used tablet PCs and suggest appropriate used sales prices to sellers and buyers.

• Animal Bioscience
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.622-630
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• 2024

Objective: Pig breeders cannot obtain phenotypic information at the time of selection for sow lifetime productivity (SLP). They would benefit from obtaining genetic information of candidate sows. Genomic data interpreted using deep learning (DL) techniques could contribute to the genetic improvement of SLP to maximize farm profitability because DL models capture nonlinear genetic effects such as dominance and epistasis more efficiently than conventional genomic prediction methods based on linear models. This study aimed to investigate the usefulness of DL for the genomic prediction of two SLP-related traits; lifetime number of litters (LNL) and lifetime pig production (LPP). Methods: Two bivariate DL models, convolutional neural network (CNN) and local convolutional neural network (LCNN), were compared with conventional bivariate linear models (i.e., genomic best linear unbiased prediction, Bayesian ridge regression, Bayes A, and Bayes B). Phenotype and pedigree data were collected from 40,011 sows that had husbandry records. Among these, 3,652 pigs were genotyped using the PorcineSNP60K BeadChip. Results: The best predictive correlation for LNL was obtained with CNN (0.28), followed by LCNN (0.26) and conventional linear models (approximately 0.21). For LPP, the best predictive correlation was also obtained with CNN (0.29), followed by LCNN (0.27) and conventional linear models (approximately 0.25). A similar trend was observed with the mean squared error of prediction for the SLP traits. Conclusion: This study provides an example of a CNN that can outperform against the linear model-based genomic prediction approaches when the nonlinear interaction components are important because LNL and LPP exhibited strong epistatic interaction components. Additionally, our results suggest that applying bivariate DL models could also contribute to the prediction accuracy by utilizing the genetic correlation between LNL and LPP.

• International Journal of Control, Automation, and Systems
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• v.4 no.6
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• pp.669-681
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• 2006

In this work, a new method of design adaptive controllers for SISO systems based on multiple models and switching is presented. The controller selects the model from a given set, according to a switching rule based on output prediction errors. The goal is to design, at each sample instant, a predictive control law that ensures the robust stability of the closed-loop system and achieves the best performance for the current operating point. At each sample the proposed control scheme identifies a set of linear models that best characterizes the dynamics of the current operating region. Then, it carries out an automatic reconfiguration of the controller to achieve the best possible performance whilst providing a guarantee of robust closed-loop stability. The results are illustrated by simulations a nonlinear continuous and stirred tank reactor.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2003.10a
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• pp.90-95
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• 2003

In this paper, an Adaptive Nonlinear Constrained Model Predictive Control (ANCMPC) is presented for a pH control in a fed-batch bio-reactor. The pH model is represented with Hammerstein Model. The static nonlinear part of Hammerstein model is described with the static pH model, and the dynamic linear part of the Hammerstein model is described with the CARIMA model. The parameters of the CARIMA model is estimated on-line with the input and output measurements of the system using a recursive least squares type of identi�cation algorithm. The e�ectiveness of the proposed controller is shown through simulations.

• Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.60-66
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• 1996

Model Based Predictive Control(MBPC) has been widely used in predictive control since 80's. GPC[1] which is the superset of many MBPC strategies a popular method, but GPC has some weakness, such as insufficient stability analysis, non-applicability to internally unstable systems. However, CRHPC[2] proposed in 1991 overcomes the above limitations. So we chose RHPC based on CRHPC for electric furnace control. An electric furnace which has nonlinear properties and large time delay is difficult to control by linear controller because it needs nearly perfect modelling and optimal gain in case of PID. As a result, those controls are very time-consuming. In this paper, we applied RHPC with equality constraint to electric furnace. The reults of experiments also include the case of RHPC with monotonic weighting improving the transient response and including unmodelled dynamics. So, This paper proved the practical aspect of RHPC for real processes.

• Proceedings of the KWS Conference
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• 2006.10a
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• pp.51-53
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• 2006

The purpose of this study is to establish the predictive equation of angular distortion and longitudinal shrinkage force at the intermittent fillet weldment using FEA and experiment. The angular distortion and shrinkage force of the intermittent fillet weldment linearly increases with an increase in the ratio of weld length(Lw) to weld span(Ls). Based on the results, The predictive equation of distortion at the intermittent fillet weldment was defined as a linear function of Lw/Ls and the predictive equation of the distortion for continuous fillet weldment.