• 대한조선학회논문집
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• 제58권5호
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• pp.281-293
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• 2021

Oil and steel prices, which are major pricescosts in the shipbuilding industry, were predicted. Firstly, the error of the moving average line (N=3-5) was examined, and in all three error analyses, the moving average line (N=3) was small. Secondly, in the linear prediction of data through existing theory, oil prices rise slightly, and steel prices rise sharply, but in reality, linear prediction using existing data was not satisfactory. Thirdly, we identified the limitations of linear prediction methods and confirmed that oil and steel price prediction was somewhat similar to actual moving average line prediction methods. Due to the high volatility of major price flows, large errors were inevitable in the forecast section. Through the time series analysis method at the end of this paper, we were able to achieve not bad results in all analysis items relative to artificial intelligence (Prophet). Predictive data through predictive analysis using eight predictive models are expected to serve as a good research foundation for developing unique tools or establishing evaluation systems in the future. This study compares the basic settings of artificial intelligence programs with the results of core price prediction in the shipbuilding industry through time series prediction theory, and further studies the various hyper-parameters and event effects of Prophet in the future, leaving room for improvement of predictability.

• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제14권5호
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• pp.189-199
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• 2012

PURPOSES: The purpose of this study is to propose a new methodology for developing statistical collision models and to show the validation results of the methodology. METHODS: A new modeling method of introducing variables into the model one by one in a multiplicative form is suggested. A method for choosing explanatory variables to be introduced into the model is explained. A method for determining functional forms for each explanatory variable is introduced as well as a parameter estimating procedure. A model selection method is also dealt with. Finally, the validation results is provided to demonstrate the efficacy of the final models developed using the method suggested in this study. RESULTS: According to the results of the validation for the total and injury collisions, the predictive powers of the models developed using the method suggested in this study were better than those of generalized linear models for the same data. CONCLUSIONS: Using the methodology suggested in this study, we could develop better statistical collision models having better predictive powers. This was because the methodology enabled us to find the relationships between dependant variable and each explanatory variable individually and to find the functional forms for the relationships which can be more likely non-linear.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제38권6호
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• pp.801-808
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• 2018

선형회귀모형의 학습은 일반적으로 자료의 개수가 설명변수의 개수보다 충분히 크고, 설명변수들 사이에 심각한 다중공선성이 없다는 가정 하에서 안정적으로 이루어진다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 가정이 위배되었을 경우 모형 학습의 어려움을 실제 호우피해자료를 분석함으로써 조명하였고, 이를 해결하기 위해 자료를 통합한 다음 주성분회귀모형 또는 능형회귀모형을 사용할 것을 검토하였다. 모형의 학습에 사용된 자료와 별도의 독립된 자료에서 제안된 모형들의 예측력을 평가하였고, 제안된 방법이 선형회귀모형보다 더 나은 예측력을 보이는 것을 확인하였다.

• 한국항공우주학회지
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• 제38권1호
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• pp.35-41
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• 2010

최근의 항공기 개발에 있어 조종면을 복수 개로 분할하여 제어함으로써 예기치 못한 결함 발생 시 안전성 및 생존성을 향상 시킬 수 있는 재형상 제어에 관한 연구가 중요하게 대두되어 왔다. 본 논문은 조종면 결함 시 발생 가능한 조종면의 포화를 고려한 모델예측 제어기법을 이용한 재형상 제어를 다룬다. 모델예측 제어의 내부 모델로는 트림 조건에서 선형화된 운동방정식을 사용하며 조종면의 포화가 발생할 경우에 선형행렬부등식 기반의 반한정 프로그래밍을 이용한 최적화를 수행하며 그 외의 경우에는 모델예측 제어기법을 풀어서 구한 해석적인 해를 사용하는 제어기 구조를 제안한다. 제안된 알고리즘의 성능을 확인하기 위해 임의의 조종면 결함 상황에 대한 비선형 시뮬레이션을 수행하였다.

• 산업융합연구
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• 제20권12호
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• pp.179-186
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• 2022

본 연구에서는 태블릿PC 중고제품의 거래 시, 판매자와 구매자 모두에게 판매가격을 제시할 수 있는 예측모형을 개발하는 것을 목표로 한다. 모형 개발을 위하여 실제 태블릿PC 중고거래 데이터와 제품에 대한 상세 정보를 추가 수집한 데이터를 사용하였다. 데이터 분석을 통하여 여러 가지 예측모형을 개발하였으며, 이 중 태블릿PC 중고가격 예측 성능이 가장 뛰어난 모형을 최종 예측모형으로 선택하였다. 구체적으로 중고 태블릿의 판매가격을 종속변수로 하고, 통합된 데이터에서 판매가격과 연관성이 있는 변수들을 독립변수로 한 다중선형회귀모형, 교호작용을 포함한 다중선형회귀모형, 그리고 각 모형에서 단계적 변수 선택법을 통해 얻은 모형들을 고려하였다. 이들 모형 중 교차타당성을 통해 최종적으로 예측 성능이 가장 뛰어난 모형을 태블릿PC 중고가격을 예측하는 모형으로 선택하였다. 본 연구를 통하여 중고제품 판매가격을 예측하고 판매자와 구매자에게 적절한 중고 거래 가격을 제시해 볼 수 있을 것이다.

• Animal Bioscience
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• 제37권4호
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• pp.622-630
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• 2024

Objective: Pig breeders cannot obtain phenotypic information at the time of selection for sow lifetime productivity (SLP). They would benefit from obtaining genetic information of candidate sows. Genomic data interpreted using deep learning (DL) techniques could contribute to the genetic improvement of SLP to maximize farm profitability because DL models capture nonlinear genetic effects such as dominance and epistasis more efficiently than conventional genomic prediction methods based on linear models. This study aimed to investigate the usefulness of DL for the genomic prediction of two SLP-related traits; lifetime number of litters (LNL) and lifetime pig production (LPP). Methods: Two bivariate DL models, convolutional neural network (CNN) and local convolutional neural network (LCNN), were compared with conventional bivariate linear models (i.e., genomic best linear unbiased prediction, Bayesian ridge regression, Bayes A, and Bayes B). Phenotype and pedigree data were collected from 40,011 sows that had husbandry records. Among these, 3,652 pigs were genotyped using the PorcineSNP60K BeadChip. Results: The best predictive correlation for LNL was obtained with CNN (0.28), followed by LCNN (0.26) and conventional linear models (approximately 0.21). For LPP, the best predictive correlation was also obtained with CNN (0.29), followed by LCNN (0.27) and conventional linear models (approximately 0.25). A similar trend was observed with the mean squared error of prediction for the SLP traits. Conclusion: This study provides an example of a CNN that can outperform against the linear model-based genomic prediction approaches when the nonlinear interaction components are important because LNL and LPP exhibited strong epistatic interaction components. Additionally, our results suggest that applying bivariate DL models could also contribute to the prediction accuracy by utilizing the genetic correlation between LNL and LPP.

• International Journal of Control, Automation, and Systems
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• 제4권6호
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• pp.669-681
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• 2006

In this work, a new method of design adaptive controllers for SISO systems based on multiple models and switching is presented. The controller selects the model from a given set, according to a switching rule based on output prediction errors. The goal is to design, at each sample instant, a predictive control law that ensures the robust stability of the closed-loop system and achieves the best performance for the current operating point. At each sample the proposed control scheme identifies a set of linear models that best characterizes the dynamics of the current operating region. Then, it carries out an automatic reconfiguration of the controller to achieve the best possible performance whilst providing a guarantee of robust closed-loop stability. The results are illustrated by simulations a nonlinear continuous and stirred tank reactor.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 제어로봇시스템학회 2003년도 ICCAS
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• pp.90-95
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• 2003

In this paper, an Adaptive Nonlinear Constrained Model Predictive Control (ANCMPC) is presented for a pH control in a fed-batch bio-reactor. The pH model is represented with Hammerstein Model. The static nonlinear part of Hammerstein model is described with the static pH model, and the dynamic linear part of the Hammerstein model is described with the CARIMA model. The parameters of the CARIMA model is estimated on-line with the input and output measurements of the system using a recursive least squares type of identi�cation algorithm. The e�ectiveness of the proposed controller is shown through simulations.

• 제어로봇시스템학회논문지
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• 제2권1호
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• pp.60-66
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• 1996

Model Based Predictive Control(MBPC) has been widely used in predictive control since 80's. GPC[1] which is the superset of many MBPC strategies a popular method, but GPC has some weakness, such as insufficient stability analysis, non-applicability to internally unstable systems. However, CRHPC[2] proposed in 1991 overcomes the above limitations. So we chose RHPC based on CRHPC for electric furnace control. An electric furnace which has nonlinear properties and large time delay is difficult to control by linear controller because it needs nearly perfect modelling and optimal gain in case of PID. As a result, those controls are very time-consuming. In this paper, we applied RHPC with equality constraint to electric furnace. The reults of experiments also include the case of RHPC with monotonic weighting improving the transient response and including unmodelled dynamics. So, This paper proved the practical aspect of RHPC for real processes.

• 대한용접접합학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한용접접합학회 2006년 추계학술발표대회 개요집
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• pp.51-53
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• 2006

The purpose of this study is to establish the predictive equation of angular distortion and longitudinal shrinkage force at the intermittent fillet weldment using FEA and experiment. The angular distortion and shrinkage force of the intermittent fillet weldment linearly increases with an increase in the ratio of weld length(Lw) to weld span(Ls). Based on the results, The predictive equation of distortion at the intermittent fillet weldment was defined as a linear function of Lw/Ls and the predictive equation of the distortion for continuous fillet weldment.