• 산업기술연구
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• 제28권B호
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• pp.199-207
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• 2008

A linear wind prediction program, WAsP, was employed to predict wind speed at two different sites located in complex terrain in South Korea. The reference data obtained at locations more than 7 kilometers away from the prediction sites were used for prediction. The predictions from the linear model were compared with the measured data at the two prediction sites. Two compensation methods such as a self-prediction error method and a delta ruggedness index (RIX) method were used to improve the wind speed prediction from WAsP and showed a good possibility. The wind speed prediction errors reached within 3.5 % with the self prediction error method, and within 10% with the delta RIX method. The self prediction error method can be used as a compensation method to reduce the wind speed prediction error in WAsP.

• 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국신재생에너지학회 2008년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.268-273
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• 2008

A linear wind prediction program, WAsP, was employed to predict wind speed at two different sites located in complex terrain in South Korea. The reference data obtained at locations more than 7 kilometers away from the prediction sites were used for prediction. The predictions from the linear model were compared with the measured data at the two prediction sites. Two compensation methods such as a self-prediction error method and a delta ruggedness index (RIX) method were used to improve the wind speed prediction from WAsP and showed a good possibility. The wind speed prediction errors reached within 3.5 % with the self prediction error method, and within 10% with the delta RIX method. The self prediction error method can be used as a compensation method to reduce the wind speed prediction error in WAsP.

• 한국정보전자통신기술학회논문지
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• 제9권4호
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• pp.337-342
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• 2016

본 연구에서는 수정 선형예측방법으로 목표물의 신호를 정확히 추정하는 방법에 대해서 연구하였다. 선형예측방법은 임의의 안테나 배열소자를 다른 소자들과 선형 결합하여 도래방향 신호를 추정하는 방법이다. 수정 선형예측방법은 최적 가중치와 사후확률방법을 사용하였다. 모의실험을 이용하여 본 연구에서 제안한 방법과 Bartlett 및 MUSIC방법의 성능을 비교 분석하였다. 모의실험조건은 안테나 배열 소자 9개, 목표물 신호 4개[-5o, 0o, 5o, 10o]에서 방향을 추정한다. 모의실험에서 Bartlett과 MUSIC방법은 목표물 신호를 3개만 추정하였고, 본 연구에서 제안한 방법은 목표물 신호 4개를 모두 추정하였다. 본 연구에서 제안한 방법이 기존의 Bartlett 과 MUSIC방법보다 분해능이 우수함을 나타내었다.

• 전기전자학회논문지
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• 제24권2호
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• pp.661-664
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• 2020

본 논문에서 우리는 선박의 이동 경로를 예측하기 위하여, 해상 영역을 분할하고, 분할된 영역을 기반으로 선박의 목적지를 예측하는 방법을 제안한다. 해상 영역을 분할하기 위하여 과거 이동 경로를 토대로 생성된 목적지 후보들을 군집화한다. 그리고, 선박이 이동할 목적지 영역을 예측하기 위해서 현재 위치에서 주어진 경로의 선형 여부와 향후 예측 시간에 따른 불확실성에 따라 다른 예측 방법을 적용한다. 예측에 사용하는 방법에는 선형 영역에서는 등속 운동을 가정한 선형 예측 방법, 불확실성이 높은 비선형 영역에서는 과거 경로 중 유사한 경로와 비슷한 움직임을 보일 것이라고 가정한 유사 경로 이용 예측 방법을 사용한다. 실험 결과에서 해당 방법이 선형 예측, 유사 경로 이용 예측 방법을 단독으로 적용하는 것에 비해 더 우수함을 보인다.

• 한국지능시스템학회논문지
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• 제25권5호
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• pp.477-482
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• 2015

단기풍속 예측을 위한 진화적 선형 및 비선형 회귀분석 기반의 보정 기법을 비교한다. 모델의 체계적 오류를 교정하기 위한 효율적인 MOS(Model Output Statistics)의 개발이 필요하나, 기존의 선형회귀분석 기반의 보정기법은 다양한 기상요소의 복잡한 비선형 특성을 반영하기 힘들다. 이를 개선하기 위해서 유전 프로그래밍을 사용하여 풍속 예측에 대한 비선형 보정 수식을 생성하는 기법을 제안하고 기본 다중선형회귀분석법 및 Ridge, Lasso 회귀분석법과 비교한다. 더불어, 선형회귀분석법과 진화적 비선형회귀분석 기법의 인자 선택의 차이와 유사성을 비교하고 분석한다. 2007년~2013년의 KLAPS(Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System) 재분석자료를 사용하여 제주도와 부산지역의 격자점에 대한 실험을 수행한다.

• 한국음향학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국음향학회 1987년도 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.61-65
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• 1987

An algorithm for estimating incident angles of multiple broaband signals is proposed. The method adopts semicausal model for two dimensional linear prediction filter coefficients such that the arithmatic averag of the mean squared values of the forward and reverse prediction arrors is minimized. Preliminary results demonstrating the performance of the proposed method are presented. Simulation results indicate that the performance depends on signal-to-noise ratio and prediction order in spatial demension.

• 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지반공학회 2009년도 춘계 학술발표회
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• pp.146-153
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• 2009

One dimensional site response analysis is widely used in prediction of the ground motion that is induced by earthquake. Equivalent linear analysis is the most widely used method due to its simplicity and ease of use. However, the equivalent linear method has been known to be unreliable since it approximates the nonlinear soil behavior within the linear framework. To consider the nonlinearity of the ground at frequency domain, frequency dependent algorithms that can simulate shear strain - frequency dependency have been proposed. In this study, the results of the modified equivalent linear analysis are compared to evaluate the degree of improvement and the applicability of the modified algorithms. Results show the novel smoothed curve that is proposed by this study indicates the most stable prediction and can enhance the accuracy of the prediction.

• Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering
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• 제2권1호
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• pp.15-23
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• 2001

On the assumption that the voices of the cows are produced by the linear prediction filter, we characterized the cows’voices. The order of this filter was determined by examining the voice characteristics both in time and frequency domains. The proposed order of the linear prediction filter is 15 for modeling voice production of the cow. The characteristics of the amplitude envelope of the voice signal was investigated by analyzing the sequence of the short time variance both in time and frequency domains, and the new parameters were defined. One of the coefficients o the linear prediction filter generating the voice signal, the fundamental frequency, the slope of the straight line regressed from the log-log spectra of the short time variance and the coefficients of the linear prediction filter generating the sequence of the short time variance of the voice signal can differentiate the two cows.

• 한국멀티미디어학회논문지
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• 제20권8호
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• pp.1406-1420
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• 2017

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) play an important role in the fields of function approximation, prediction, and classification. ANN performance is critically dependent on the input parameters, including the number of neurons in each layer, and the optimal values of weights and biases assigned to each neuron. In this study, we apply the particle swarm optimization method, a popular optimization algorithm for determining the optimal values of weights and biases for every neuron in different layers of the ANN. Several regression models, including general linear regression, Fourier regression, smoothing spline, and polynomial regression, are conducted to evaluate the proposed method's prediction power compared to multiple linear regression (MLR) methods. In addition, residual analysis is conducted to evaluate the optimized ANN accuracy for both training and test datasets. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively determine optimal values for neuron weights and biases, and high accuracy results are obtained for prediction applications. Evaluations of the proposed method reveal that it can be used for prediction and estimation purposes, with a high accuracy ratio, and the designed model provides a reliable technique for optimization. The simulation results show that the optimized ANN exhibits superior performance to MLR for prediction purposes.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제65권5호
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• pp.851-856
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• 2016

Wind speed is heavily fluctuated and quite local than other weather elements. It is difficult to improve the accuracy of prediction only in a numerical prediction model. An MOS (Model Output Statistics) technique is used to correct the systematic errors of the model using a statistical data analysis. The Most of previous MOS has used a linear regression model for weather prediction, but it is hard to manage an irregular nature of prediction of wind speed. In order to solve the problem, a nonlinear regression method using SVR (Support Vector Regression) is introduced for a development of MOS for wind speed prediction. Experiments are performed for KLAPS (Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System) re-analysis data from 2007 to 2013 year for Jeju Island and Busan area in South Korea. The MLR and SVR based linear and nonlinear methods are compared to each other for prediction accuracy of wind speed. Also, the comparison experiments are executed for the variation in the number of UM elements.