• Title/Summary/Keyword: likelihood ratio order

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Economic Feasibility Analysis of Marine Ecosystem Restoration Technology Program (해양생태계 복원기술개발 사업의 경제적 타당성 분석)

  • Kwon, Young-Ju;Paik, Sang-Kyu;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.130-142
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    • 2014
  • The Korean government is considering implementation of the marine ecosystem restoration technology program (MERTP) to analyze the current status of the marine ecosystems and causes for the ecosystem deterioration as well as to eventually establish a master strategic plan for restoring ecosystem functions and preventing ecosystem functional loss. In order to determine likelihood of successful implementation, it is essential to perform an analysis of the economic feasibility of the program. The present study assessed economic feasibility of the MERTP. To this end, the dichotomous choice contingent valuation (CV) method is used. In particular, dichotomous choice (DC) format is employed as a method of eliciting willingness-to-pay (WTP) response to incentive-compatible mechanisms. The study also employed the spike model to deal with zero WTP responses from the DC CV survey. This survey of 1,000 randomly selected households in accordance with the guidelines provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (USA) was carried out nationwide in 2013. And, the respondents were asked in person-to-person interviews about their WTP for implementing the MERTP. The results showed that the annual mean WTP was estimated to be 5,414 won per household. Consequently, the annual benefit from the MERTP would be about 98.6 billion won for the next five years. Economic feasibility assessment utilizing the MERTP investment cost and expansion cost of the value provided that net present value, benefit/cost ratio, and internal rate of return are 337.8 billion won, 5.20, and 65.9 %, respectively, which are bigger than 0, 1.0, and 5.5 %, and that the MERTP passes the cost-benefit analysis.

Analyzing the Relationship between Environmental Consciousness and Railway Choice Behavior (환경의식과 철도이용행동의 관련성 분석)

  • Lee, Jae-Boong;Kim, Hyun;Oh, Seung Hwoon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.6D
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    • pp.697-705
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this research is to clarify the relation between environmental consciousness and railway usage behavior. Author would locate this research on position of basic survey to promote railway use according to Low Carbon Green Growth policy in Korea. In this research, we would perform descriptive analysis using data of research on the actual condition of railway use in 2008, Daegu, and describe its relationship. In addition, we would suggest some idea about policy which can promote railway use. The order of railway choice behavior noticed in clustering of environmental consciousness was cooperative behavior type, middle type and non-cooperative behavior type. It suggests that environmental consciousness has effect on transportation choice behavior. Specially, railway improvement isn't enough to promote railway use. And, it is advisable to carry out the improvement in such a way that it may encourage the nation to move from the current environmental consciousness stage to cooperative behavior. Moreover, we assumed Binary Probit(BP) model using SP data of time or condition of transportation expense compared with passenger car and bus. As the results, modified likelihood ratio of two BP models is favorable variables. And it occurred that mode was transferred from passenger car to railway when it showed higher social environment consciousness and low selfish environment consciousness, because t-statistic which represents selfish environment consciousness showed significance in 95% confidence level. That is, it can be described that environment consciousness affect on the intention of railway use.

The Measurement and Comparison of the Relative Efficiency for Currency Futures Markets : Advanced Currency versus Emerging Currency (통화선물시장의 상대적 효율성 측정과 비교 : 선진통화 대 신흥통화)

  • Kim, Tae-Hyuk;Eom, Cheol-Jun;Kang, Seok-Kyu
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2008
  • This study is to evaluate, to the extent to, which advanced currency futures and emerging currency futures markets can predict accurately the future spot rate. To this end, Johansen's the maximum-likelihood cointegration method(1988, 1991) is adopted to test the unbiasedness and efficiency hypothesis. Also, this study is to estimate and compare a quantitative measure of relative efficiency as a ratio of the forecast error variance from the best-fitting quasi-error correction model to the forecast error variance of the futures price as predictor of the spot price in advanced currency futures with in emerging currency futures market. Advanced currency futures is British pound and Japan yen. Emerging currency futures includes Korea won, Mexico peso, and Brazil real. The empirical results are summarized as follows : First, the unbiasedness hypothesis is not rejected for Korea won and Japan yen futures exchange rates. This indicates that the emerging currency Korea won and the advanced currency Japan yen futures exchange rates are likely to predict accurately realized spot exchange rate at a maturity date without the trader having to pay a risk premium for the privilege of trading the contract. Second, in emerging currency futures markets, the unbiasedness hypothesis is not rejected for Korea won futures market apart from Mexico peso and Brazil real futures markets. This indicates that in emerging currency futures markets, Korea won futures market is more efficient than Mexico peso and Brazil real futures markets and is likely to predict accurately realized spot exchange rate at a maturity date without risk premium. Third, this findings show that the results of unbiasedness hypothesis tests can provide conflicting finding. according to currency futures class and forecasts horizon period, Fourth, from the best-fitting quasi-error correction model with forecast horizons of 14 days, the findings suggest the Japan yen futures market is 27.06% efficient, the British pound futures market is 26.87% efficient, the Korea won futures market is 20.77% efficient, the Mexico peso futures market is 11.55%, and the Brazil real futures market is 4.45% efficient in the usual order. This indicates that the Korea won-dollar futures market is more efficient than Mexico peso, and Brazil real futures market. It is therefore possible to concludes that the Korea won-dollar currency futures market has relatively high efficiency comparing with Mexico peso and Brazil real futures markets of emerging currency futures markets.

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Effects of Nitrogen , Phosphorus and Potassium Application Rates on Oversown Hilly Pasture under Different Levels of Inclination II. Changes on the properties, chemical composition, uptake and recovery of mineral nutrients in mixed grass/clover sward (경사도별 3요소시용 수준이 겉뿌림 산지초지에 미치는 영향 II. 토양특성 , 목초의 무기양분함량 및 3요소 이용율의 변화)

  • 정연규;이종열
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.200-206
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    • 1985
  • This field experiment was undertaken to assess the effects of three levels of inclination ($10^{\circ},\;20^{\circ},\;and\;30^{\circ}$) and four rates of $N-P_2O_5-K_2O$ (0-0-0-, 14-10-10, 28-25-25, and 42-40-40kg/10a) on establishment, yield and quality, and botanical compositions of mixed grass-clover sward. This second part is concerned with the soil chemical properties, concentrations and uptake of mineral nutrients, and percent recovery and efficiency of NPK. The results obtained after a two-year experiment are summarized as follows: 1. The pH, exchangeable Mg and Na, and base saturation in the surface soils were decreased by increasing the grade of inclination, whereas organic matter and available $P_2O_5$ tended to be increased. However, the changes in the Ca content and equivalent ratio of $K\sqrt{Ca+Mg}$ were not significant. The pH, exchangeable Ca and Mg, and base saturation were reduced by increasing the NPK rate, whereas available $P_2O_5$, exchangeable K, and equivalent ratio of $K\sqrt{Ca+Mg}$ tended to be increased. 2. The concentrations of mineral nutrients in grasses and weeds were not significantly affected by increasing the grade of slope in hilly pasture, whereas the concentrations of N, K, and Mg in legume were the lowest with the steep slope, which seemed to be related to the low legume yield. The Mg concentrations of all forage species were below the critical level for good forage growth and likelihood of grass tetany. 3. The increase of NPK rate resulted in the increment of N, K and Na concentrations, and the decrease of Mg and Ca in grasses. The P concentration was increased with P application, but there were no differences in that among the P rates applied. It resulted also in a slight increase of K, and a decrease of Mg in legume, but the contents of N, Ca, and Na were not affected by that. On the other hand, it has not affected the mineral contents in weeds except a somewhat increase of N. The mixed forages showed a increase of N and K contents, a decrease of Ca and Mg, and a slight change in P and Na. 4. The percent recovery of N, P and K by mixed forages were greatly decreased by increasing the grade of inclination and NPK rate. They were high in the order; K>N>P. The efficiency of mixed NPK applications was decreased by that. The efficiency of mixed NPK fertilizers absorbed was slightly decreased by the increased rate of NPK, but it was not affected by the grade of inclination.

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