• 지능정보연구
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• 제25권2호
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• pp.123-139
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• 2019

국내 NPL (Non performing loan) 시장은 1998년에 형성되었지만, 본격적으로 활성화 된 시기는 2009년으로 역사가 짧은 시장이다. 이로 인해 NPL 시장에 대한 연구도 아직까지는 활발히 진행되지 않고 있는 상황이다. 본 연구는 NPL 시장의 각 물건 별 기준 수익률 달성 유무를 예측할 수 있는 모델을 제안한다. 모델 구축에 사용되는 종속변수는 물건 별 최종 수익률이 기준 수익률 수치 도달 여부를 나타내는 이항변수를 사용하였고, 독립변수로는 물건의 특성을 나타내는 11개의 변수를 대상으로 one to one t-test와 logistic regression stepwise, decision tree를 수행하여 의미있는 7개의 독립변수를 선별하였다. 그리고 통상적으로 사용되는 기준 수익률 수치(12%)가 의미있는 기준 수치인지 확인하기 위해 수치 값을 조절해가며 종속변수를 산출하여 예측모델을 구축해보았다. 그 결과 12%의 기준 수익률 수치로 산출한 종속변수를 이용하여 구축한 예측모델의 평균 Hit ratio가 64.60%로 가장 우수하다는 결과를 얻었다. 다음으로 선별된 7개의 독립변수들과 12%를 기준으로한 수익률 달성유무 종속변수를 이용하여 판별분석, 로지스틱 회귀분석, 의사결정나무, 인공신경망, 유전자알고리즘 선형 모델의 5가지 방법론을 적용해 예측모델을 구축해보았다. 5가지 방법론으로 도출한 예측 모델 간 Hit ratio를 비교한 결과 인공신경망을 이용하여 구축한 예측모델의 Hit ratio가 67.4%로 가장 우수한 결과를 도출해내었다. 본 연구를 통해 추후 NPL시장 신규 물건 매매에 있어서 7가지의 독립변수들과 인공신경망 예측 모델을 활용하는 것이 효과적임을 증명하였다. 물건의 12% 수익률 달성 여부를 사전에 예측해봄으로써 유동화회사가 투자 의사결정을 하는 데에 도움을 줄 것으로 예상하며, 나아가 NPL 시장의 거래가 적정한 가격 선에서 진행됨으로 인해 유동성이 더욱 높아질 것이라 기대한다.

• Asia Marketing Journal
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.83-110
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• 2010

기업의 서비스 실패로 인해 부정적 경험을 겪은 고객은 무의식적으로 그 원인의 추론을 통해 실망이나 후회의 부정적 감정을 얻게 되는데 이때 고객의 자기조절성향에 따른 감정의 발생은 각기 달리 나타나며, 이때 형성된 부정적 감정들은 서로 다른 고객반응을 일으키게 된다. 이러한 부정적 반응은 기업의 이미지 및 브랜드 가치에도 적지 않은 영향을 미칠 뿐만 아니라 장기적으로는 기업 매출에도 부정적 영향을 미치며 서비스 회복 노력에 따른 추가적 비용도 발생하게 된다. 본 연구는 서비스 영역에서 서비스 실패에 따른 고객의 부정적 감정의 선행요인 및 그 결과변수인 고객반응에 초점을 두고 있다. 즉 서비스 실패 시 자기조절성향(평가지향성과 목표지향성)이 부정적 감정에 미치는 영향과 이때 귀인과정(내적귀인 vs 외적귀인)에 따른 고객의 부정적 감정(후회감과 실망감)의 차이를 살펴보았다. 그리고 이러한 부정적 감정들이 체념과 구전활동이라고 하는 고객 행동반응에 미치는 영향을 실증분석하였다. 분석결과, 자기조절성향에 따른 후회감의 차이는 목표 지향적 성향이 강한 고객보다는 평가지향적 성향이 강한 고객일수록 후회감이 더 크고 반대로 목표지향적 성향이 강한 고객은 실망감이 더 큰 것으로 나타났다. 고객의 부정적 감정들은 귀인과정의 조절적 역할(내적귀인-후회감, 외적귀인-실망감)에 따라 서로 다른 감정이 형성되는 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 후회감과 실망감은 소비자의 서비스 실패 후 행동반응에 상이한 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났는데 본인의 의사결정에 따른 선택에 대해 후회감을 느낀 고객은 체념적 반응이 높게 나타났으며 반면에 실망감을 느낀 고객은 서비스 제공자나 제3자에 대한 구전행동이 높은 것으로 나타났다.

• 한국농공학회지
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• 제16권2호
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• pp.3361-3394
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• 1974

The purpose of this thesis is to disclose some characteristics of water consumption in relation to the quantities of dry matters through the growing period for two statured varieties of paddy rice which are a tall statured variety and a short one, including the water consumption during seedling period, and to find out the various coefficients of evapotranspiration that are applicable for the water use of an expected yield of the two varieties. PAL-TAL, a tall statured variety, and TONG-lL, a short statured variety were chosen for this investigation. Experiments were performed in two consecutive periods, a seedling period and a paddy field period, In the investigation of seedling period, rectangular galvanized iron evapotranspirometers (91cm${\times}$85cm${\times}$65cm) were set up in a way of two levels (PAL-TAL and TONG-lL varieties) with two replications. A standard fertilization method was applied to all plots. In the experiment of paddy field period, evapotanspiration and evaporation were measured separately. For PAL-TAL variety, the evapotranspiration measurements of 43 plots of rectangular galvanized iron evapotranspirometer (91cm${\times}$85cm${\times}$65cm) and the evaporation measurements of 25 plots of rectangular galvanized iron evaporimeter (91cm${\times}$85cm${\times}$15cm) have been taken for seven years (1966 through 1972), and for TONG-IL variety, the evapotranspiration measurements of 19 plots and the evaporation measurements of 12 plots have been collected for two years (1971 through 1972) with five different fertilization levels. The results obtained from this investigation are summarized as follows: 1. Seedling period 1) The pan evaporation and evapotranspiration during seedling period were proved to have a highly significant correlation to solar radiation, sun shine hours and relative humidity. But they had no significant correlation to average temperature, wind velocity and atmospheric pressure, and were appeared to be negatively correlative to average temperature and wind velocity, and positively correlative to the atmospheric pressure, in a certain period. There was the highest significant correlation between the evapotranspiration and the pan evaporation, beyond all other meteorological factors considered. 2) The evapotranpiration and its coefficient for PAL-TAL variety were 194.5mm and 0.94∼1.21(1.05 in average) respectively, while those for TONG-lL variety were 182.8mm and 0.90∼1.10(0.99 in average) respectively. This indicates that the evapotranspiration for TONG-IL variety was 6.2% less than that for PAL-TAL variety during a seedling period. 3) The evapotranspiration ratio (the ratio of the evapotranspiration to the weight of dry matters) during the seedling period was 599 in average for PAL-TAL variety and 643 for TONG-IL variety. Therefore the ratio for TONG-IL was larger by 44 than that for PAL-TAL variety. 4) The K-values of Blaney and Criddle formula for PAL-TAL variety were 0.78∼1.06 (0.92 in average) and for TONG-lL variety 0.75∼0.97 (0.86 in average). 5) The evapotranspiration coefficient and the K-value of B1aney and Criddle formular for both PAL-TAL and TONG-lL varieties showed a tendency to be increasing, but the evapotranspiration ratio decreasing, with the increase in the weight of dry matters. 2. Paddy field period 1) Correlation between the pan evaporation and the meteorological factors and that between the evapotranspiration and the meteorological factors during paddy field period were almost same as that in case of the seedling period (Ref. to table IV-4 and table IV-5). 2) The plant height, in the same level of the weight of dry matters, for PAL-TAL variety was much larger than that for TONG-IL variety, and also the number of tillers per hill for PAL-TAL variety showed a trend to be larger than that for TONG-IL variety from about 40 days after transplanting. 3) Although there was a tendency that peak of leaf-area-index for TONG-IL variety was a little retarded than that for PAL-TAL variety, it appeared about 60∼80 days after transplanting. The peaks of the evapotranspiration coefficient and the weight of dry matters at each growth stage were overlapped at about the same time and especially in the later stage of growth, the leaf-area-index, the evapotranspiration coefficient and the weight of dry matters for TONG-IL variety showed a tendency to be larger then those for PAL-TAL variety. 4) The evaporation coefficient at each growth stage for TONG-IL and PAL-TALvarieties was decreased and increased with the increase and decrease in the leaf-area-index, and the evaporation coefficient of TONG-IL variety had a little larger value than that of PAL-TAL variety. 5) Meteorological factors (especially pan evaporation) had a considerable influence to the evapotranspiration, the evaporation and the transpiration. Under the same meteorological conditions, the evapotranspiration (ET) showed a increasing logarithmic function of the weight of dry matters (x), while the evaporation (EV) a decreasing logarithmic function of the weight of dry matters; 800kg/10a x 2000kg/10a, ET=al+bl logl0x (bl>0) EV=a2+b2 log10x (a2>0 b2<0) At the base of the weight of total dry matters, the evapotranspiration and the evaporation for TONG-IL variety were larger as much as 0.3∼2.5% and 7.5∼8.3% respectively than those of PAL-TAL variety, while the transpiration for PAL-TAL variety was larger as much as 1.9∼2.4% than that for TONG-IL variety on the contrary. At the base of the weight of rough rices the evapotranspiration and the transpiration for TONG-IL variety were less as much as 3.5% and 8.l∼16.9% respectively than those for PAL-TAL variety and the evaporation for TONG-IL was much larger by 11.6∼14.8% than that for PAL-TAL variety. 6) The evapotranspiration coefficient, the evaporation coefficient and the transpiration coefficient and the transpiration coefficient were affected by the weight of dry matters much more than by the meteorological conditions. The evapotranspiratioa coefficient (ETC) and the evaporation coefficient (EVC) can be related to the weight of dry matters (x) by the following equations: 800kg/10a x 2000kg/10a, ETC=a3+b3 logl0x (b3>0) EVC=a4+b4 log10x (a4>0, b4>0) At the base of the weights of dry matters, 800kg/10a∼2000kg/10a, the evapotranspiration coefficients for TONG-IL variety were 0.968∼1.474 and those for PAL-TAL variety, 0.939∼1.470, the evaporation coefficients for TONG-IL variety were 0.504∼0.331 and those for PAL-TAL variety, 0.469∼0.308, and the transpiration coefficients for TONG-IL variety were 0.464∼1.143 and those for PAL-TAL variety, 0.470∼1.162. 7) The evapotranspiration ratio, the evaporation ratio (the ratio of the evaporation to the weight of dry matters) and the transpiration ratio were highly affected by the meteorological conditions. And under the same meteorological condition, both the evapotranspiration ratio (ETR) and the evaporation ratio (EVR) showed to be a decreasing logarithmic function of the weight of dry matters (x) as follows: 800kg/10a x 2000kg/10a, ETR=a5+b5 logl0x (a5>0, b5<0) EVR=a6+b6 log10x (a6>0 b6<0) In comparison between TONG-IL and PAL-TAL varieties, at the base of the pan evaporation of 343mm and the weight of dry matters of 800∼2000kg/10a, the evapotranspiration ratios for TONG-IL variety were 413∼247, while those for PAL-TAL variety, 404∼250, the evaporation ratios for TONG-IL variety were 197∼38 while those for PAL-TAL variety, 182∼34, and the transpiration ratios for TONG-IL variety were 216∼209 while those for PAL-TAL variety, 222∼216 (Ref. to table IV-23, table IV-25 and table IV-26) 8) The accumulative values of evapotranspiration intensity and transpiration intensity for both PAL-TAL and TONG-IL varieties were almost constant in every climatic year without the affection of the weight of dry matters. Furthermore the evapotranspiration intensity appeared to have more stable at each growth stage. The peaks of the evapotranspiration intensity and transpiration intensity, for both TONG-IL and PAL-TAL varieties, appeared about 60∼70 days after transplanting, and the peak value of the former was 128.8${\pm}$0.7, for TONG-IL variety while that for PAL-TAL variety, 122.8${\pm}$0.3, and the peak value of the latter was 152.2${\pm}$1.0 for TONG-IL variety while that for PAL-TAL variety, 152.7${\pm}$1.9 (Ref.to table IV-27 and table IV-28) 9) The K-value in Blaney & Criddle formula was changed considerably by the meteorological condition (pan evaporation) and related to be a increasing logarithmic function of the weight of dry matters (x) for both PAL-TAL and TONG-L varieties as follows; 800kg/10a x 2000kg/10a, K=a7+b7 logl0x (b7>0) The K-value for TONG-IL variety was a little larger than that for PAL-TAL variety. 10) The peak values of the evapotranspiration coefficient and k-value at each growth stage for both TONG-IL and PAL-TAL varieties showed up about 60∼70 days after transplanting. The peak values of the former at the base of the weights of total dry matters, 800∼2000kg/10a, were 1.14∼1.82 for TONG-IL variety and 1.12∼1.80, for PAL-TAL variety, and at the base of the weights of rough rices, 400∼1000 kg/10a, were 1.11∼1.79 for TONG-IL variety and 1.17∼1.85 for PAL-TAL variety. The peak values of the latter, at the base of the weights of total dry matters, 800∼2000kg/10a, were 0.83∼1.39 for TONG-IL variety and 0.86∼1.36 for PAL-TAL variety and at the base of the weights of rough rices, 400∼1000kg/10a, 0.85∼1.38 for TONG-IL variety and 0.87∼1.40 for PAL-TAL variety (Ref. to table IV-18 and table IV-32) 11) The reasonable and practicable methods that are applicable for calculating the evapotranspiration of paddy rice in our country are to be followed the following priority a) Using the evapotranspiration coefficients based on an expected yield (Ref. to table IV-13 and table IV-18 or Fig. IV-13). b) Making use of the combination method of seasonal evapotranspiration coefficient and evapotranspiration intensity (Ref. to table IV-13 and table IV-27) c) Adopting the combination method of evapotranspiration ratio and evapotranspiration intensity, under the conditions of paddy field having a higher level of expected yield (Ref. to table IV-23 and table IV-27). d) Applying the k-values calculated by Blaney-Criddle formula. only within the limits of the drought year having the pan evaporation of about 450mm during paddy field period as the design year (Ref. to table IV-32 or Fig. IV-22).