• International journal of advanced smart convergence
• /
• 제7권1호
• /
• pp.24-32
• /
• 2018

An outlier detection method using mixed prediction model has been described in this paper. The mixed prediction model consists of time-series model and regression model. The parameter estimation of the prediction model was performed using supervised learning and a genetic algorithm is adopted for a learning method. The experiments were performed in artificial and real data set. The prediction performance is compared with the existing prediction methods using artificial data. Outlier detection is conducted using the real sensor measurements in a dam. The validity of the proposed method was shown in the experiments.

• Journal of Positioning, Navigation, and Timing
• /
• 제13권1호
• /
• pp.111-115
• /
• 2024

This study builds a machine learning model optimized for clocks among various techniques in the field of artificial intelligence and applies it to clock stabilization or synchronization technology based on atomic clock noise characteristics. In addition, the possibility of providing stable source clock data is confirmed through the characteristics of machine learning predicted values during holdover of atomic clocks. The proposed machine learning model is evaluated by comparing its performance with the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, an existing statistical clock prediction model. From the results of the analysis, the prediction model proposed in this study (MSE: 9.47476) has a lower MSE value than the ARIMA model (MSE: 221.2622), which means that it provides more accurate predictions. The prediction accuracy is based on understanding the complex nature of data that changes over time and how well the model reflects this. The application of a machine learning prediction model can be seen as a way to overcome the limitations of the statistical-based ARIMA model in time series prediction and achieve improved prediction performance.

• 무역학회지
• /
• 제46권6호
• /
• pp.191-209
• /
• 2021

In this paper, various time series analysis models and machine learning models are presented for long-term prediction of export growth rate, and the prediction performance is compared and reviewed by RMSE and MAE. Export growth rate is one of the major economic indicators to evaluate the economic status. And It is also used to predict economic forecast. The export growth rate may have a negative (-) value as well as a positive (+) value. Therefore, Instead of using the ReLU function, which is often used for time series prediction of deep learning models, the PReLU function, which can have a negative (-) value as an output value, was used as the activation function of deep learning models. The time series prediction performance of each model for three types of data was compared and reviewed. The forecast data of long-term prediction of export growth rate was deduced by three forecast methods such as a fixed forecast method, a recursive forecast method and a rolling forecast method. As a result of the forecast, the traditional time series analysis model, ARDL, showed excellent performance, but as the time period of learning data increases, the performance of machine learning models including LSTM was relatively improved.

• 한국정보과학회논문지:소프트웨어및응용
• /
• 제30권10호
• /
• pp.983-991
• /
• 2003

인터넷 상의 웹기반교육은 시$.$공간을 초월하여 많은 학습자들에게 관련 정보와 지식을 제공하고 있다. 그러나 웹 기반교육에서는 학습자의 학습진행상태를 단지 시험을 통해서만 확인 할 수 있는 문제가 있다. 본 논문은 웹기반교육에서 학습자의 학습 과정에 문제가 있는지를 검사하고, 문제가 있는 학생들을 발견할 수 있는 웹 모니터링 기법을 소개한다. 그 기법에서 본 논문은 이전 학을 단위들에 대한 학습자의 학습시간과 형성평가점수들에 기초하여 다음에 진행할 학습 단위에 대한 학습 시간을 예측할 수 있는 학습 시간 예측 모델을 제안한다. 이 기법은 교수자에게 학습자의 학습진행상태를 제공한다. 이 방법은 만약 학습자가 예측학습시간을 초과하였을 경우에는 자동으로 경고 메시지를 보내어 학습자가 다시 학습 과정에 잘 임하도록 독려하는데 이용될 수 있다. 학습시간 예측모델을 이용한 웹 모니터링에 관한 사례 연구를 통해 측정한 결과, 학습진행상태가 원만하지 않는 학습자의 대부분은 형성평가 점수가 저조하였다. 또한, 그들은 학습진행상태가 원만하지 않는 자신의 학습 습관을 그대로 유지하고 있는 것으로 나타났다.

• 4차산업연구
• /
• 제3권1호
• /
• pp.13-20
• /
• 2023

Purpose - By designing a PEF(Personalized Education Feedback) system for real-time prediction of learning achievement and motivation through real-time EEG analysis of learners, this system provides some modules of a personalized adaptive learning system. By applying these modules to e-learning and offline learning, they motivate learners and improve the quality of learning progress and effective learning outcomes can be achieved for immersive self-directed learning Research design, data, and methodology - EEG data were collected simultaneously as the English test was given to the experimenters, and the correlation between the correct answer result and the EEG data was learned with a machine learning algorithm and the predictive model was evaluated.. Result - In model performance evaluation, both artificial neural networks(ANNs) and support vector machines(SVMs) showed high accuracy of more than 91%. Conclusion - This research provides some modules of personalized adaptive learning systems that can more efficiently complete by designing a PEF system for real-time learning achievement prediction and learning motivation through an adaptive learning system based on real-time EEG analysis of learners. The implication of this initial research is to verify hypothetical situations for the development of an adaptive learning system through EEG analysis-based learning achievement prediction.

• Journal of Multimedia Information System
• /
• 제8권3호
• /
• pp.183-190
• /
• 2021

In this paper, we implement a system for a fund recommendation based on the investment propensity and for a future fund price prediction. The investment propensity is classified by scoring user responses to series of questions. The proposed system recommends the funds with a suitable risk rating to the investment propensity of the user. The future fund prices are predicted by Prophet model which is one of the machine learning methods for time series data prediction. Prophet model predicts future fund prices by learning the parameters related to trend changes. The prediction by Prophet model is simple and fast because the temporal dependency for predicting the time-series data can be removed. We implement web pages for the fund recommendation and for the future fund price prediction.

• Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
• /
• 제21권1호
• /
• pp.82-89
• /
• 2023

Various machine-learning models may yield high predictive power for massive time series for time series prediction. However, these models are prone to instability in terms of computational cost because of the high dimensionality of the feature space and nonoptimized hyperparameter settings. Considering the potential risk that model training with a high-dimensional feature set can be time-consuming, we evaluate a feature-importance-based feature selection method to derive a tradeoff between predictive power and computational cost for time series prediction. We used two machine learning techniques for performance evaluation to generate prediction models from a retail sales dataset. First, we ranked the features using impurity- and Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) -based feature importance measures in the prediction models. Then, the recursive feature elimination method was applied to eliminate unimportant features sequentially. Consequently, we obtained a subset of features that could lead to reduced model training time while preserving acceptable model performance.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제13권5호
• /
• pp.1841-1851
• /
• 2018

For the safe and stable operation of the power system, accurate wind power prediction is of great significance. A wind power prediction method based on empirical mode decomposition and improved extreme learning machine is proposed in this paper. Firstly, wind power time series is decomposed into several components with different frequency by empirical mode decomposition, which can reduce the non-stationary of time series. The components after decomposing remove the long correlation and promote the different local characteristics of original wind power time series. Secondly, an improved extreme learning machine prediction model is introduced to overcome the sample data updating disadvantages of standard extreme learning machine. Different improved extreme learning machine prediction model of each component is established. Finally, the prediction value of each component is superimposed to obtain the final result. Compared with other prediction models, the simulation results demonstrate that the proposed prediction method has better prediction accuracy for wind power.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제54권8호
• /
• pp.3027-3033
• /
• 2022

Background: In this study, various types of deep-learning models for predicting in vitro radiosensitivity from gene-expression profiling were compared. Methods: The clonogenic surviving fractions at 2 Gy from previous publications and microarray gene-expression data from the National Cancer Institute-60 cell lines were used to measure the radiosensitivity. Seven different prediction models including three distinct multi-layered perceptrons (MLP), four different convolutional neural networks (CNN) were compared. Folded cross-validation was applied to train and evaluate model performance. The criteria for correct prediction were absolute error < 0.02 or relative error < 10%. The models were compared in terms of prediction accuracy, training time per epoch, training fluctuations, and required calculation resources. Results: The strength of MLP-based models was their fast initial convergence and short training time per epoch. They represented significantly different prediction accuracy depending on the model configuration. The CNN-based models showed relatively high prediction accuracy, low training fluctuations, and a relatively small increase in the memory requirement as the model deepens. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that a CNN-based model with moderate depth would be appropriate when the prediction accuracy is important, and a shallow MLP-based model can be recommended when either the training resources or time are limited.

• 한국BIM학회 논문집
• /
• 제9권1호
• /
• pp.22-31
• /
• 2019

In this paper, we construct a prototype model for city data prediction by using time series data of floating population, and use machine learning to analyze urban data of complex structure. A correlation prediction model was constructed using three of the 10 data (total flow population, male flow population, and Monday flow population), and the result was compared with the actual data. The results of the accuracy were evaluated. The results of this study show that the predicted model of the floating population predicts the correlation between the predicted floating population and the current state of commerce. It is expected that it will help efficient and objective design in the planning stages of architecture, landscape, and urban areas such as tree environment design and layout of trails. Also, it is expected that the dynamic population prediction using multivariate time series data and collected location data will be able to perform integrated simulation with time series data of various fields.