• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• autumn
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• pp.115-122
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• 2002

There is various points that should be improved in Fairness such as our contract practice to propose construction projects, project managing and the stakeholders' way of thinking and culture. We consider that the revision of construction related provisions and systems is required but even more, an overall change in business management through the implementation of Integrated Construction Information Management System that will enable the owner, which drives the project, and contractor sharing construction information is required. To mange construction related information in an integrated manner, designing information should be smoothly transferred to purchasing information, and changes are required in order to move ahead to process-oriented work system. Finally information created from various construction organizations should be delivered in an aligned and standardized manner as well. The domestic Nuclear Power Plant Construction has been accepting various technology transfers from U.S, France, Canada and UK, which enabled us to self-support technology and recently even proceeded to the phase exporting our technology to others. However, continuous effort is required to improve internal business efficiency and to respond to external environmental change such aselectricity market deregulation. Recently, in accordance with the result in number of CEO's intention to make progress in IT and improve business efficiency, the number of enterprises introducing Enterprise Resource Planning is increasing. ERP is an innovative tool which changes the way of performing work from organization and department orientation to process-orientation in order to optimize the resources, such as human and material resources, through out the Enterprise by performing BPR which will maximize overall business efficiency of the enterprise, such includes not only construction management, but also business management. KHNP continued to performing large scaled construction projects such as nuclear power plant construction for past 30 years and took the initiatives of large scale project management and Quality management ability in domestic industry by having independent capability of over all construction planning, purchasing and, construction and start up management etc. To maintain our leading position of improving construction management technology based on our accumulated project management experience and technology, KHNP included construction into our ERP project in purpose of innovating construction business. We would like to discuss the characteristics of nuclear construction business, project management system, information system infrastructure and information sharing system among construction related entities, and implementation practices for information system, and consider how to resolve our practice that should be improved in this thesis.

• Proceedings of the Korean Environmental Health Society Conference
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• 2003.06a
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• pp.24-25
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• 2003

Lead is ubiquitous in the human environment as a result of industrialization. China's rapid industrialization and traffic growth have increased the potential for lead emissions. Lead poisoning in children is one of the most common public health problems today, and it is entirely preventable. Children are more vulnerable to lead pollution and lead in their bodies can affect their nervous, circulatory, and digestive systems. Children are exposed to lead from different sources (such as paint, gasoline, and solder) and through different pathways (such as air, food, water, dust, and soil). Although all children are exposed to some lead from food, air, dust, and soil, some children are exposed to high dose sources of lead. Significant sources of lead for China's children include industrial emissions (often close to housing and schools), leaded gasoline, and occupational exposure that occurs when parents wear lead-contaminated clothing home from work, burning of coal for home heat and cooking, contaminated food, and some traditional medicines. To assess the blood lead level in children in China, a large-scale study was conducted in 19 cities among 9 provinces during 1997 to 2000. There were 6502 children, aged 3-5 years, were recruited in the study The result indicates that the mean blood lead level was 8.83ug/dl 3-5 year old living in city area. The mean blood lead level of boys was higher than that of girls (9.1l ug/dl vs 8.73ug/dl). Almost 30 percent childrens blood lead level exceeded 10ug/dl. The average blood lead level was higher than that of in 1985 (8.83ug/dl vs 8.lug/dl). An epidemiological study was carried on the children living around the cottage industries recycling the lead from battery. Nine hundreds fifty nine children, aged 5-12 years, living in lead polluted villages where the lead smelters located near the residential area and 207 control children live in unpolluted area were recruited in the study. The lead levels in air, soil, drinking water and crops were measured. The blood lead and ZnPP level were tested for all subjects. The results show that the local environment was polluted. The lead levels both in the air and crops were much higher than that of in control area. In the polluted area, the average blood level was 49.6ug/dl (rang 19.5-89.3ug/dl). Whereas, in the unpolluted area, the average blood level was 12.4ug/dl (rang 4.6-24.8ug/dl). This study indicates that in some countryside area, some cottage industries induce seriously lead pollution and cause children health problem. For the introducing of unleaded gasoline in some large cities, such as Beijing and Shanghai, the blood lead level showed a declined trend since 1997. By 2000, the use of leaded gasoline in motor vehicles has been prohibited in China. The most recent data available show that levels of lead in blood among children in Shanghai decreased from 8.3ug/dl in 1997 to 7.6ug/dl in 1999. The prevalence rate of children lead poisoning (blood lead >10ug/dl) was also decreased from 37.8% to 24.8%. In children living in downtown area, the blood lead level reduced dramatically. To explore the relationship between gene polymorphisms and individual susceptibility of lead poisoning, a molecular epidemiological study was conducted among children living in lead polluted environment. The result showed that the subjects with ALAD2 allele has higher ZPP level, and the subjects with VDR B allele has larger head circumference than only with b allele. In the present study, we demonstrated that ALAD genotypes modify lead effects on heme metabolism and VDR gene variants influence the skull development in highly exposed children. The polymorphism of ALAD and VDR genes might be the molecular inherited factor modifying the susceptibility of lead poisoning. Recently, Chinese government pays more attention to lead pollution and lead poisoning in children problem. The leaded gasoline was prohibited used in motor vehicles since 2000. The government has decided to have a clampdown on the high-polluted lead smelters for recycling the lead from battery in countryside. It is hopeful that the risk of lead poisoning in children will be decreased in the further

• The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.119-130
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• 2015

Impacts of Argo temperature assimilation on the analysis fields in the East Sea is investigated by using DAESROM, the East Sea Regional Ocean Model with a 3-dimensional variational assimilation module (Kim et al., 2009). Namely, we produced analysis fields in 2009, in which temperature profiles, sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) anomaly were assimilated (Exp. AllDa) and carried out additional experiment by withdrawing Argo temperature data (Exp. NoArgo). When comparing both experimental results using assimilated temperature profiles, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of the Exp. AllDa is generally lower than the Exp. NoArgo. In particular, the Argo impacts are large in the subsurface layer, showing the RMSE difference of about $0.5^{\circ}C$. Based on the observations of 14 surface drifters, Argo impacts on the current and temperature fields in the surface layer are investigated. In general, surface currents along the drifter positions are improved in the Exp. AllDa, and large RMSE differences (about 2.0~6.0 cm/s) between both experiments are found in drifters which observed longer period in the southern region where Argo density was high. On the other hand, Argo impacts on the SST fields are negligible, and it is considered that SST assimilation with 1-day interval has dominant effects. Similar to the difference of surface current fields between both experiments, SSH fields also reveal significant difference in the southern East Sea, for example the southwestern Yamato Basin where anticyclonic circulation develops. The comparison of SSH fields implies that SSH assimilation does not correct the SSH difference caused by withdrawing Argo data. Thus Argo assimilation has an important role to reproduce meso-scale circulation features in the East Sea.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.137-165
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• 1994

Structural adjustment of industry (or industrial restructuring) seems to be inherent in the process of capitalist economic development, which tends to be proceeded with shifts from one stage to another in order to overcome structural crises generated in each stage. The structural adjustment of industry is necessarily accompanied with regional restructuring, since it is not only projected on spece, but also mediated by space. Such a restructuring necessitates industrial and uneven regional devlopment through which capital can seek excessive profits over the rate of socio-spatial average. The industrial restructuring and uneven regional development in the 1980s in Korea can be seen as a process in which capital attempted with a strong support of the govenment to overcome the crises in the end of 1970s and hence to go on rapid economic growth. In this process, capital, especially monopoly capital concentrated into few conglomerates, pursued both extensive expansion and intensive development of industry simultaneously. In results, the Korean economy could eliminate some of peripheral characters and maturate the Fordist accumulation system. The extensive expansion of the Korean industry in the 1980s was stimulated mainly through the enlargement and adjustment of investment for equipment facilities which was planned to exclude or rationalize traditional light industries on some places, and to continue rapid growth of key heavy-chemical industries, especially of fabricated metal industry, on other places. In this process, keeping mainly the existing developmental axis which polarized the Seoul Metroplitan region and the Southeast region in Korea, the enhancing spatial mobiiity of capital and the further differentiating division of labour enforced a tendency of concentration of all types of industry in the Seoul Metropolitan region, and at the same time provoked the diffusion of some industries over Jeolla and Chungchong regions in a considerable extent. The intensive development of industriai structure in the 1980s was pursued through the strategic encouragement of subcontracting small firms mainly which produced assembling components, the technical enhancement and factory (semi-) automation, and the enrichment of service industries for estate management, finance, distribution and retailing which supported and complemented the production of goods. In this process, enabling capital to extend and elaborate its domination over space through the reorganization of regulating systems, the Fordist division of labour generated a socio-spatial hierarchy in the nation-wide scale that characterized: the Seoul Metropolitan region as an overmaturated (or overarching) Fordist region performing the conceptive functions of management, research and development, in which all types of industry (including service industries) tended to be reconcentrated; Kyungsang region as a maturated Fordist region with excutive branches of large conglomerates and with subcontracting firms around them which produced standardized products through the automized production processes in secialized Fordist industries or rationalized traditional industries; and Jeolla and Chungchong regions as newly devloping Fordist regions with newly migrated branches and some subcontracting small firms-in relatively older Fordist industries or partly rationalized traditional industries. From these analyses, it can be argued that the structural adjustment of the Korean industry in the 1980s, which had carried out both through the extensive expansion and the intensive deveiopment, strengthened further uneven regional development process, even though it appears to have reduced apparently the economic and regional disparity by balancing numerically large and small firms and by extending the Fordist industrial space nation-wideiy. And it seems more persuasive to see that the Korean industrial structure in the 1980s maturated the Fordist system of accumulation, but not yet transformed towards the post-Fordist (or the so-called flexible) accumulation system, even though the Korean economy in the 1990s seems to be under a pressure of restructuring towards the latter system.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.33 no.7
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• pp.569-582
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• 2012

The heavy rainfalls caused large property damages and human casualties. For example, Changma caused 0.25 billion dollars in damages and 57 deaths and 112 missing by accompanying the torrentially convective heavy rainfall in Seoul, 2011. In addition, TY15 (Bolaven) caused a small damage by bringing a relatively small amount of rainfall and strong wind in Gwanju, 2012. The investigation and analyses of these mesoscale processes of rainfall events for different physical properties using KLAPS for weather environments of the above cases were performed. These typical and ideal meoscale systems by better and more favorable cloud systems were chosen to retrieve rain intensity from Radar and Chullian data. The quantitative rain intensities of Radar and Chullian differ greatly from the ground-based gauge values with underestimating over 50 mm/hr at the peak time of hourly maximum rain intensity about over than 85 mm/hr. However, the Radar rain intensity demonstrated approximately lower than 35 mm/hr, and the Chullian rain intensity less than 60 mm/hr for Changma in Seoul, 2011. For typhoon (TY15, Bolaven) in Gwangju, similarly, the quantitative rain intensities of Radar and Chullian differ from the ground-based gauge values. At the peak time, the hourly maximum rain intensity of ground-based gauge was more than 15 mm/hr. However, the Radar rain intensity showed lower than 5 mm/hr, and the Chullian rain intensity lower than 10 mm/hr. Regarding the above two cases of typhoon and Changma, even though Radar and Chullian rain intensities have been underestimated when compared to the ground-based rain intensity, the distributions of time scale features of both Radar and Chullian rain intensities still delineated a similar tendency of rain intensity distribution of the ground-based gauge data.

• Journal of Life Science
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.86-91
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• 2014

Trichoplusia ni cells are used as a host permissive cell line in the baculovirus expression system, which is useful for large-scale production of human sugar transport proteins. However, the activity of endogenous sugar transport systems in insect cells is extremely high. Therefore, the transport activity resulting from the expression of exogenous transporters is difficult to detect. Furthermore, very little is known about the nature of endogenous insect transporters. To exploit the expression system further, the effect of D-fructose on 2-deoxy-D-glucose (2dGlc) transport by T. ni cells was investigated, and T. ni cell-expressed human transporters were photolabeled with [$^3H$] cytochalasin B to develop a convenient method for measuring the biological activity of insect cell-expressed transporters. The uptake of 1 mM 2dGlc by uninfected- and recombinant AcMPV-GTL infected cells was examined in the presence and absence of 300 mM of D-fructose, with and without $20{\mu}M$ of cytochalasin B. The sugar uptake in the uninfected cells was strongly inhibited by fructose but only poorly inhibited by cytochalasin B. Interestingly, the AcMPV-GTL-infected cells showed an essentially identical pattern of transport inhibition, and the rate of 2dGlc uptake was somewhat less than that seen in the non-infected cells. In addition, a sharply labeled peak was produced only in the AcMPV-GTL-infected membranes labeled with [$^3H$] cytochalasin B in the presence of L-glucose. No peak of labeling was seen in the membranes prepared from the uninfected cells. Furthermore, photolabeling of the expressed protein was completely inhibited by the presence of D-glucose, demonstrating the stereoselectivity of labeling.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.53-69
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• 2011

Vision and voice-based technologies are commonly utilized for human-robot interaction. But it is widely recognized that the performance of vision and voice-based interaction systems is deteriorated by a large margin in the real-world situations due to environmental and user variances. Human users need to be very cooperative to get reasonable performance, which significantly limits the usability of the vision and voice-based human-robot interaction technologies. As a result, touch screens are still the major medium of human-robot interaction for the real-world applications. To empower the usability of robots for various services, alternative interaction technologies should be developed to complement the problems of vision and voice-based technologies. In this paper, we propose the use of accelerometer-based gesture interface as one of the alternative technologies, because accelerometers are effective in detecting the movements of human body, while their performance is not limited by environmental contexts such as lighting conditions or camera's field-of-view. Moreover, accelerometers are widely available nowadays in many mobile devices. We tackle the problem of classifying acceleration signal patterns of 26 English alphabets, which is one of the essential repertoires for the realization of education services based on robots. Recognizing 26 English handwriting patterns based on accelerometers is a very difficult task to take over because of its large scale of pattern classes and the complexity of each pattern. The most difficult problem that has been undertaken which is similar to our problem was recognizing acceleration signal patterns of 10 handwritten digits. Most previous studies dealt with pattern sets of 8~10 simple and easily distinguishable gestures that are useful for controlling home appliances, computer applications, robots etc. Good features are essential for the success of pattern recognition. To promote the discriminative power upon complex English alphabet patterns, we extracted 'motion trajectories' out of input acceleration signal and used them as the main feature. Investigative experiments showed that classifiers based on trajectory performed 3%~5% better than those with raw features e.g. acceleration signal itself or statistical figures. To minimize the distortion of trajectories, we applied a simple but effective set of smoothing filters and band-pass filters. It is well known that acceleration patterns for the same gesture is very different among different performers. To tackle the problem, online incremental learning is applied for our system to make it adaptive to the users' distinctive motion properties. Our system is based on instance-based learning (IBL) where each training sample is memorized as a reference pattern. Brute-force incremental learning in IBL continuously accumulates reference patterns, which is a problem because it not only slows down the classification but also downgrades the recall performance. Regarding the latter phenomenon, we observed a tendency that as the number of reference patterns grows, some reference patterns contribute more to the false positive classification. Thus, we devised an algorithm for optimizing the reference pattern set based on the positive and negative contribution of each reference pattern. The algorithm is performed periodically to remove reference patterns that have a very low positive contribution or a high negative contribution. Experiments were performed on 6500 gesture patterns collected from 50 adults of 30~50 years old. Each alphabet was performed 5 times per participant using $Nintendo{(R)}$ $Wii^{TM}$ remote. Acceleration signal was sampled in 100hz on 3 axes. Mean recall rate for all the alphabets was 95.48%. Some alphabets recorded very low recall rate and exhibited very high pairwise confusion rate. Major confusion pairs are D(88%) and P(74%), I(81%) and U(75%), N(88%) and W(100%). Though W was recalled perfectly, it contributed much to the false positive classification of N. By comparison with major previous results from VTT (96% for 8 control gestures), CMU (97% for 10 control gestures) and Samsung Electronics(97% for 10 digits and a control gesture), we could find that the performance of our system is superior regarding the number of pattern classes and the complexity of patterns. Using our gesture interaction system, we conducted 2 case studies of robot-based edutainment services. The services were implemented on various robot platforms and mobile devices including $iPhone^{TM}$. The participating children exhibited improved concentration and active reaction on the service with our gesture interface. To prove the effectiveness of our gesture interface, a test was taken by the children after experiencing an English teaching service. The test result showed that those who played with the gesture interface-based robot content marked 10% better score than those with conventional teaching. We conclude that the accelerometer-based gesture interface is a promising technology for flourishing real-world robot-based services and content by complementing the limits of today's conventional interfaces e.g. touch screen, vision and voice.

• Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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• 1995.02a
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• pp.101-113
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• 1995

The objective of this research is to test the feasibility of developing a statewide truck traffic forecasting methodology for Wisconsin by using Origin-Destination surveys, traffic counts, classification counts, and other data that are routinely collected by the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT). Development of a feasible model will permit estimation of future truck traffic for every major link in the network. This will provide the basis for improved estimation of future pavement deterioration. Pavement damage rises exponentially as axle weight increases, and trucks are responsible for most of the traffic-induced damage to pavement. Consequently, forecasts of truck traffic are critical to pavement management systems. The pavement Management Decision Supporting System (PMDSS) prepared by WisDOT in May 1990 combines pavement inventory and performance data with a knowledge base consisting of rules for evaluation, problem identification and rehabilitation recommendation. Without a r.easonable truck traffic forecasting methodology, PMDSS is not able to project pavement performance trends in order to make assessment and recommendations in the future years. However, none of WisDOT's existing forecasting methodologies has been designed specifically for predicting truck movements on a statewide highway network. For this research, the Origin-Destination survey data avaiiable from WisDOT, including two stateline areas, one county, and five cities, are analyzed and the zone-to'||'&'||'not;zone truck trip tables are developed. The resulting Origin-Destination Trip Length Frequency (00 TLF) distributions by trip type are applied to the Gravity Model (GM) for comparison with comparable TLFs from the GM. The gravity model is calibrated to obtain friction factor curves for the three trip types, Internal-Internal (I-I), Internal-External (I-E), and External-External (E-E). ~oth "macro-scale" calibration and "micro-scale" calibration are performed. The comparison of the statewide GM TLF with the 00 TLF for the macro-scale calibration does not provide suitable results because the available 00 survey data do not represent an unbiased sample of statewide truck trips. For the "micro-scale" calibration, "partial" GM trip tables that correspond to the 00 survey trip tables are extracted from the full statewide GM trip table. These "partial" GM trip tables are then merged and a partial GM TLF is created. The GM friction factor curves are adjusted until the partial GM TLF matches the 00 TLF. Three friction factor curves, one for each trip type, resulting from the micro-scale calibration produce a reasonable GM truck trip model. A key methodological issue for GM. calibration involves the use of multiple friction factor curves versus a single friction factor curve for each trip type in order to estimate truck trips with reasonable accuracy. A single friction factor curve for each of the three trip types was found to reproduce the 00 TLFs from the calibration data base. Given the very limited trip generation data available for this research, additional refinement of the gravity model using multiple mction factor curves for each trip type was not warranted. In the traditional urban transportation planning studies, the zonal trip productions and attractions and region-wide OD TLFs are available. However, for this research, the information available for the development .of the GM model is limited to Ground Counts (GC) and a limited set ofOD TLFs. The GM is calibrated using the limited OD data, but the OD data are not adequate to obtain good estimates of truck trip productions and attractions .. Consequently, zonal productions and attractions are estimated using zonal population as a first approximation. Then, Selected Link based (SELINK) analyses are used to adjust the productions and attractions and possibly recalibrate the GM. The SELINK adjustment process involves identifying the origins and destinations of all truck trips that are assigned to a specified "selected link" as the result of a standard traffic assignment. A link adjustment factor is computed as the ratio of the actual volume for the link (ground count) to the total assigned volume. This link adjustment factor is then applied to all of the origin and destination zones of the trips using that "selected link". Selected link based analyses are conducted by using both 16 selected links and 32 selected links. The result of SELINK analysis by u~ing 32 selected links provides the least %RMSE in the screenline volume analysis. In addition, the stability of the GM truck estimating model is preserved by using 32 selected links with three SELINK adjustments, that is, the GM remains calibrated despite substantial changes in the input productions and attractions. The coverage of zones provided by 32 selected links is satisfactory. Increasing the number of repetitions beyond four is not reasonable because the stability of GM model in reproducing the OD TLF reaches its limits. The total volume of truck traffic captured by 32 selected links is 107% of total trip productions. But more importantly, ~ELINK adjustment factors for all of the zones can be computed. Evaluation of the travel demand model resulting from the SELINK adjustments is conducted by using screenline volume analysis, functional class and route specific volume analysis, area specific volume analysis, production and attraction analysis, and Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) analysis. Screenline volume analysis by using four screenlines with 28 check points are used for evaluation of the adequacy of the overall model. The total trucks crossing the screenlines are compared to the ground count totals. L V/GC ratios of 0.958 by using 32 selected links and 1.001 by using 16 selected links are obtained. The %RM:SE for the four screenlines is inversely proportional to the average ground count totals by screenline .. The magnitude of %RM:SE for the four screenlines resulting from the fourth and last GM run by using 32 and 16 selected links is 22% and 31 % respectively. These results are similar to the overall %RMSE achieved for the 32 and 16 selected links themselves of 19% and 33% respectively. This implies that the SELINICanalysis results are reasonable for all sections of the state.Functional class and route specific volume analysis is possible by using the available 154 classification count check points. The truck traffic crossing the Interstate highways (ISH) with 37 check points, the US highways (USH) with 50 check points, and the State highways (STH) with 67 check points is compared to the actual ground count totals. The magnitude of the overall link volume to ground count ratio by route does not provide any specific pattern of over or underestimate. However, the %R11SE for the ISH shows the least value while that for the STH shows the largest value. This pattern is consistent with the screenline analysis and the overall relationship between %RMSE and ground count volume groups. Area specific volume analysis provides another broad statewide measure of the performance of the overall model. The truck traffic in the North area with 26 check points, the West area with 36 check points, the East area with 29 check points, and the South area with 64 check points are compared to the actual ground count totals. The four areas show similar results. No specific patterns in the L V/GC ratio by area are found. In addition, the %RMSE is computed for each of the four areas. The %RMSEs for the North, West, East, and South areas are 92%, 49%, 27%, and 35% respectively, whereas, the average ground counts are 481, 1383, 1532, and 3154 respectively. As for the screenline and volume range analyses, the %RMSE is inversely related to average link volume. 'The SELINK adjustments of productions and attractions resulted in a very substantial reduction in the total in-state zonal productions and attractions. The initial in-state zonal trip generation model can now be revised with a new trip production's trip rate (total adjusted productions/total population) and a new trip attraction's trip rate. Revised zonal production and attraction adjustment factors can then be developed that only reflect the impact of the SELINK adjustments that cause mcreases or , decreases from the revised zonal estimate of productions and attractions. Analysis of the revised production adjustment factors is conducted by plotting the factors on the state map. The east area of the state including the counties of Brown, Outagamie, Shawano, Wmnebago, Fond du Lac, Marathon shows comparatively large values of the revised adjustment factors. Overall, both small and large values of the revised adjustment factors are scattered around Wisconsin. This suggests that more independent variables beyond just 226; population are needed for the development of the heavy truck trip generation model. More independent variables including zonal employment data (office employees and manufacturing employees) by industry type, zonal private trucks 226; owned and zonal income data which are not available currently should be considered. A plot of frequency distribution of the in-state zones as a function of the revised production and attraction adjustment factors shows the overall " adjustment resulting from the SELINK analysis process. Overall, the revised SELINK adjustments show that the productions for many zones are reduced by, a factor of 0.5 to 0.8 while the productions for ~ relatively few zones are increased by factors from 1.1 to 4 with most of the factors in the 3.0 range. No obvious explanation for the frequency distribution could be found. The revised SELINK adjustments overall appear to be reasonable. The heavy truck VMT analysis is conducted by comparing the 1990 heavy truck VMT that is forecasted by the GM truck forecasting model, 2.975 billions, with the WisDOT computed data. This gives an estimate that is 18.3% less than the WisDOT computation of 3.642 billions of VMT. The WisDOT estimates are based on the sampling the link volumes for USH, 8TH, and CTH. This implies potential error in sampling the average link volume. The WisDOT estimate of heavy truck VMT cannot be tabulated by the three trip types, I-I, I-E ('||'&'||'pound;-I), and E-E. In contrast, the GM forecasting model shows that the proportion ofE-E VMT out of total VMT is 21.24%. In addition, tabulation of heavy truck VMT by route functional class shows that the proportion of truck traffic traversing the freeways and expressways is 76.5%. Only 14.1% of total freeway truck traffic is I-I trips, while 80% of total collector truck traffic is I-I trips. This implies that freeways are traversed mainly by I-E and E-E truck traffic while collectors are used mainly by I-I truck traffic. Other tabulations such as average heavy truck speed by trip type, average travel distance by trip type and the VMT distribution by trip type, route functional class and travel speed are useful information for highway planners to understand the characteristics of statewide heavy truck trip patternS. Heavy truck volumes for the target year 2010 are forecasted by using the GM truck forecasting model. Four scenarios are used. Fo~ better forecasting, ground count- based segment adjustment factors are developed and applied. ISH 90 '||'&'||' 94 and USH 41 are used as example routes. The forecasting results by using the ground count-based segment adjustment factors are satisfactory for long range planning purposes, but additional ground counts would be useful for USH 41. Sensitivity analysis provides estimates of the impacts of the alternative growth rates including information about changes in the trip types using key routes. The network'||'&'||'not;based GMcan easily model scenarios with different rates of growth in rural versus . . urban areas, small versus large cities, and in-state zones versus external stations. cities, and in-state zones versus external stations.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.1-22
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• 2017

Analysis of future business or investment opportunities, such as business feasibility analysis and company or technology valuation, necessitate objective estimation on the relevant market and expected sales. While there are various ways to classify the estimation methods of these new sales or market size, they can be broadly divided into top-down and bottom-up approaches by benchmark references. Both methods, however, require a lot of resources and time. Therefore, we propose a data-based intelligent demand forecasting system to support evaluation of new business. This study focuses on analogical forecasting, one of the traditional quantitative forecasting methods, to develop sales forecasting intelligence systems for new businesses. Instead of simply estimating sales for a few years, we hereby propose a method of estimating the sales of new businesses by using the initial sales and the sales growth rate of similar companies. To demonstrate the appropriateness of this method, it is examined whether the sales performance of recently established companies in the same industry category in Korea can be utilized as a reference variable for the analogical forecasting. In this study, we examined whether the phenomenon of "mean reversion" was observed in the sales of start-up companies in order to identify errors in estimating sales of new businesses based on industry sales growth rate and whether the differences in business environment resulting from the different timing of business launch affects growth rate. We also conducted analyses of variance (ANOVA) and latent growth model (LGM) to identify differences in sales growth rates by industry category. Based on the results, we proposed industry-specific range and linear forecasting models. This study analyzed the sales of only 150,000 start-up companies in Korea in the last 10 years, and identified that the average growth rate of start-ups in Korea is higher than the industry average in the first few years, but it shortly shows the phenomenon of mean-reversion. In addition, although the start-up founding juncture affects the sales growth rate, it is not high significantly and the sales growth rate can be different according to the industry classification. Utilizing both this phenomenon and the performance of start-up companies in relevant industries, we have proposed two models of new business sales based on the sales growth rate. The method proposed in this study makes it possible to objectively and quickly estimate the sales of new business by industry, and it is expected to provide reference information to judge whether sales estimated by other methods (top-down/bottom-up approach) pass the bounds from ordinary cases in relevant industry. In particular, the results of this study can be practically used as useful reference information for business feasibility analysis or technical valuation for entering new business. When using the existing top-down method, it can be used to set the range of market size or market share. As well, when using the bottom-up method, the estimation period may be set in accordance of the mean reverting period information for the growth rate. The two models proposed in this study will enable rapid and objective sales estimation of new businesses, and are expected to improve the efficiency of business feasibility analysis and technology valuation process by developing intelligent information system. In academic perspectives, it is a very important discovery that the phenomenon of 'mean reversion' is found among start-up companies out of general small-and-medium enterprises (SMEs) as well as stable companies such as listed companies. In particular, there exists the significance of this study in that over the large-scale data the mean reverting phenomenon of the start-up firms' sales growth rate is different from that of the listed companies, and that there is a difference in each industry. If a linear model, which is useful for estimating the sales of a specific company, is highly likely to be utilized in practical aspects, it can be explained that the range model, which can be used for the estimation method of the sales of the unspecified firms, is highly likely to be used in political aspects. It implies that when analyzing the business activities and performance of a specific industry group or enterprise group there is political usability in that the range model enables to provide references and compare them by data based start-up sales forecasting system.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.85-107
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• 2019

Online consumers browse products belonging to a particular product line or brand for purchase, or simply leave a wide range of navigation without making purchase. The research on the behavior and purchase of online consumers has been steadily progressed, and related services and applications based on behavior data of consumers have been developed in practice. In recent years, customization strategies and recommendation systems of consumers have been utilized due to the development of big data technology, and attempts are being made to optimize users' shopping experience. However, even in such an attempt, it is very unlikely that online consumers will actually be able to visit the website and switch to the purchase stage. This is because online consumers do not just visit the website to purchase products but use and browse the websites differently according to their shopping motives and purposes. Therefore, it is important to analyze various types of visits as well as visits to purchase, which is important for understanding the behaviors of online consumers. In this study, we explored the clustering analysis of session based on click stream data of e-commerce company in order to explain diversity and complexity of search behavior of online consumers and typified search behavior. For the analysis, we converted data points of more than 8 million pages units into visit units' sessions, resulting in a total of over 500,000 website visit sessions. For each visit session, 12 characteristics such as page view, duration, search diversity, and page type concentration were extracted for clustering analysis. Considering the size of the data set, we performed the analysis using the Mini-Batch K-means algorithm, which has advantages in terms of learning speed and efficiency while maintaining the clustering performance similar to that of the clustering algorithm K-means. The most optimized number of clusters was derived from four, and the differences in session unit characteristics and purchasing rates were identified for each cluster. The online consumer visits the website several times and learns about the product and decides the purchase. In order to analyze the purchasing process over several visits of the online consumer, we constructed the visiting sequence data of the consumer based on the navigation patterns in the web site derived clustering analysis. The visit sequence data includes a series of visiting sequences until one purchase is made, and the items constituting one sequence become cluster labels derived from the foregoing. We have separately established a sequence data for consumers who have made purchases and data on visits for consumers who have only explored products without making purchases during the same period of time. And then sequential pattern mining was applied to extract frequent patterns from each sequence data. The minimum support is set to 10%, and frequent patterns consist of a sequence of cluster labels. While there are common derived patterns in both sequence data, there are also frequent patterns derived only from one side of sequence data. We found that the consumers who made purchases through the comparative analysis of the extracted frequent patterns showed the visiting pattern to decide to purchase the product repeatedly while searching for the specific product. The implication of this study is that we analyze the search type of online consumers by using large - scale click stream data and analyze the patterns of them to explain the behavior of purchasing process with data-driven point. Most studies that typology of online consumers have focused on the characteristics of the type and what factors are key in distinguishing that type. In this study, we carried out an analysis to type the behavior of online consumers, and further analyzed what order the types could be organized into one another and become a series of search patterns. In addition, online retailers will be able to try to improve their purchasing conversion through marketing strategies and recommendations for various types of visit and will be able to evaluate the effect of the strategy through changes in consumers' visit patterns.