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A Study on People Counting in Public Metro Service using Hybrid CNN-LSTM Algorithm (Hybrid CNN-LSTM 알고리즘을 활용한 도시철도 내 피플 카운팅 연구)

  • Choi, Ji-Hye;Kim, Min-Seung;Lee, Chan-Ho;Choi, Jung-Hwan;Lee, Jeong-Hee;Sung, Tae-Eung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.131-145
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    • 2020
  • In line with the trend of industrial innovation, IoT technology utilized in a variety of fields is emerging as a key element in creation of new business models and the provision of user-friendly services through the combination of big data. The accumulated data from devices with the Internet-of-Things (IoT) is being used in many ways to build a convenience-based smart system as it can provide customized intelligent systems through user environment and pattern analysis. Recently, it has been applied to innovation in the public domain and has been using it for smart city and smart transportation, such as solving traffic and crime problems using CCTV. In particular, it is necessary to comprehensively consider the easiness of securing real-time service data and the stability of security when planning underground services or establishing movement amount control information system to enhance citizens' or commuters' convenience in circumstances with the congestion of public transportation such as subways, urban railways, etc. However, previous studies that utilize image data have limitations in reducing the performance of object detection under private issue and abnormal conditions. The IoT device-based sensor data used in this study is free from private issue because it does not require identification for individuals, and can be effectively utilized to build intelligent public services for unspecified people. Especially, sensor data stored by the IoT device need not be identified to an individual, and can be effectively utilized for constructing intelligent public services for many and unspecified people as data free form private issue. We utilize the IoT-based infrared sensor devices for an intelligent pedestrian tracking system in metro service which many people use on a daily basis and temperature data measured by sensors are therein transmitted in real time. The experimental environment for collecting data detected in real time from sensors was established for the equally-spaced midpoints of 4×4 upper parts in the ceiling of subway entrances where the actual movement amount of passengers is high, and it measured the temperature change for objects entering and leaving the detection spots. The measured data have gone through a preprocessing in which the reference values for 16 different areas are set and the difference values between the temperatures in 16 distinct areas and their reference values per unit of time are calculated. This corresponds to the methodology that maximizes movement within the detection area. In addition, the size of the data was increased by 10 times in order to more sensitively reflect the difference in temperature by area. For example, if the temperature data collected from the sensor at a given time were 28.5℃, the data analysis was conducted by changing the value to 285. As above, the data collected from sensors have the characteristics of time series data and image data with 4×4 resolution. Reflecting the characteristics of the measured, preprocessed data, we finally propose a hybrid algorithm that combines CNN in superior performance for image classification and LSTM, especially suitable for analyzing time series data, as referred to CNN-LSTM (Convolutional Neural Network-Long Short Term Memory). In the study, the CNN-LSTM algorithm is used to predict the number of passing persons in one of 4×4 detection areas. We verified the validation of the proposed model by taking performance comparison with other artificial intelligence algorithms such as Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and RNN-LSTM (Recurrent Neural Network-Long Short Term Memory). As a result of the experiment, proposed CNN-LSTM hybrid model compared to MLP, LSTM and RNN-LSTM has the best predictive performance. By utilizing the proposed devices and models, it is expected various metro services will be provided with no illegal issue about the personal information such as real-time monitoring of public transport facilities and emergency situation response services on the basis of congestion. However, the data have been collected by selecting one side of the entrances as the subject of analysis, and the data collected for a short period of time have been applied to the prediction. There exists the limitation that the verification of application in other environments needs to be carried out. In the future, it is expected that more reliability will be provided for the proposed model if experimental data is sufficiently collected in various environments or if learning data is further configured by measuring data in other sensors.

Brief Introduction of Research Progresses in Control and Biocontrol of Clubroot Disease in China

  • He, Yueqiu;Wu, Yixin;He, Pengfei;Li, Xinyu
    • 한국균학회소식:학술대회논문집
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.45-46
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    • 2015
  • Clubroot disease of crucifers has occurred since 1957. It has spread to the whole China, especially in the southwest and nourtheast where it causes 30-80% loss in some fields. The disease has being expanded in the recent years as seeds are imported and the floating seedling system practices. For its effective control, the Ministry of Agriculture of China set up a program in 2010 and a research team led by Dr. Yueqiu HE, Yunnan Agricultural University. The team includes 20 main reseachers of 11 universities and 5 institutions. After 5 years, the team has made a lot of progresses in disease occurrence regulation, resources collection, resistance identification and breeding, biological agent exploration, formulation, chemicals evaluation, and control strategy. About 1200 collections of local and commercial crucifers were identified in the field and by artificiall inoculation in the laboratories, 10 resistant cultivars were breeded including 7 Chinese cabbages and 3 cabbages. More than 800 antagostic strains were isolated including bacteria, stretomyces and fungi. Around 100 chemicals were evaluated in the field and greenhouse based on its control effect, among them, 6 showed high control effect, especially fluazinam and cyazofamid could control about 80% the disease. However, fluzinam has negative effect on soil microbes. Clubroot disease could not be controlled by bioagents and chemicals once when the pathogen Plasmodiophora brassicae infected its hosts and set up the parasitic relationship. We found the earlier the pathogent infected its host, the severer the disease was. Therefore, early control was the most effective. For Chinese cabbage, all controlling measures should be taken in the early 30 days because the new infection could not cause severe symptom after 30 days of seeding. For example, a biocontrol agent, Bacillus subtilis Strain XF-1 could control the disease 70%-85% averagely when it mixed with seedling substrate and was drenching 3 times after transplanting, i.e. immediately, 7 days, 14 days. XF-1 has been deeply researched in control mechanisms, its genome, and development and application of biocontrol formulate. It could produce antagonistic protein, enzyme, antibiotics and IAA, which promoted rhizogenesis and growth. Its The genome was sequenced by Illumina/Solexa Genome Analyzer to assembled into 20 scaffolds then the gaps between scaffolds were filled by long fragment PCR amplification to obtain complet genmone with 4,061,186 bp in size. The whole genome was found to have 43.8% GC, 108 tandem repeats with an average of 2.65 copies and 84 transposons. The CDSs were predicted as 3,853 in which 112 CDSs were predicted to secondary metabolite biosynthesis, transport and catabolism. Among those, five NRPS/PKS giant gene clusters being responsible for the biosynthesis of polyketide (pksABCDEFHJLMNRS in size 72.9 kb), surfactin(srfABCD, 26.148 kb, bacilysin(bacABCDE 5.903 kb), bacillibactin(dhbABCEF, 11.774 kb) and fengycin(ppsABCDE, 37.799 kb) have high homolgous to fuction confirmed biosynthesis gene in other strain. Moreover, there are many of key regulatory genes for secondary metabolites from XF-1, such as comABPQKX Z, degQ, sfp, yczE, degU, ycxABCD and ywfG. were also predicted. Therefore, XF-1 has potential of biosynthesis for secondary metabolites surfactin, fengycin, bacillibactin, bacilysin and Bacillaene. Thirty two compounds were detected from cell extracts of XF-1 by MALDI-TOF-MS, including one Macrolactin (m/z 441.06), two fusaricidin (m/z 850.493 and 968.515), one circulocin (m/z 852.509), nine surfactin (m/z 1044.656~1102.652), five iturin (m/z 1096.631~1150.57) and forty fengycin (m/z 1449.79~1543.805). The top three compositions types (contening 56.67% of total extract) are surfactin, iturin and fengycin, in which the most abundant is the surfactin type composition 30.37% of total extract and in second place is the fengycin with 23.28% content with rich diversity of chemical structure, and the smallest one is the iturin with 3.02% content. Moreover, the same main compositions were detected in Bacillus sp.355 which is also a good effects biocontol bacterial for controlling the clubroot of crucifer. Wherefore those compounds surfactin, iturin and fengycin maybe the main active compositions of XF-1 against P. brassicae. Twenty one fengycin type compounds were evaluate by LC-ESI-MS/MS with antifungal activities, including fengycin A $C_{16{\sim}C19}$, fengycin B $C_{14{\sim}C17}$, fengycin C $C_{15{\sim}C18}$, fengycin D $C_{15{\sim}C18}$ and fengycin S $C_{15{\sim}C18}$. Furthermore, one novel compound was identified as Dehydroxyfengycin $C_{17}$ according its MS, 1D and 2D NMR spectral data, which molecular weight is 1488.8480 Da and formula $C_{75}H_{116}N_{12}O_{19}$. The fengycin type compounds (FTCPs $250{\mu}g/mL$) were used to treat the resting spores of P. brassicae ($10^7/mL$) by detecting leakage of the cytoplasm components and cell destruction. After 12 h treatment, the absorbencies at 260 nm (A260) and at 280 nm (A280) increased gradually to approaching the maximum of absorbance, accompanying the collapse of P. brassicae resting spores, and nearly no complete cells were observed at 24 h treatment. The results suggested that the cells could be lyzed by the FTCPs of XF-1, and the diversity of FTCPs was mainly attributed to a mechanism of clubroot disease biocontrol. In the five selected medium MOLP, PSA, LB, Landy and LD, the most suitable for growth of strain medium is MOLP, and the least for strains longevity is the Landy sucrose medium. However, the lipopeptide highest yield is in Landy sucrose medium. The lipopeptides in five medium were analyzed with HPLC, and the results showed that lipopeptides component were same, while their contents from B. subtilis XF-1 fermented in five medium were different. We found that it is the lipopeptides content but ingredients of XF-1 could be impacted by medium and lacking of nutrition seems promoting lipopeptides secretion from XF-1. The volatile components with inhibition fungal Cylindrocarpon spp. activity which were collect in sealed vesel were detected with metheds of HS-SPME-GC-MS in eight biocontrol Bacillus species and four positive mutant strains of XF-1 mutagenized with chemical mutagens, respectively. They have same main volatile components including pyrazine, aldehydes, oxazolidinone and sulfide which are composed of 91.62% in XF-1, in which, the most abundant is the pyrazine type composition with 47.03%, and in second place is the aldehydes with 23.84%, and the third place is oxazolidinone with 15.68%, and the smallest ones is the sulfide with 5.07%.

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Brand Equity and Purchase Intention in Fashion Products: A Cross-Cultural Study in Asia and Europe (상표자산과 구매의도와의 관계에 관한 국제비교연구 - 아시아와 유럽의 의류시장을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Kyung-Hoon;Ko, Eun-Ju;Graham, Hooley;Lee, Nick;Lee, Dong-Hae;Jung, Hong-Seob;Jeon, Byung-Joo;Moon, Hak-Il
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.245-276
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    • 2008
  • Brand equity is one of the most important concepts in business practice as well as in academic research. Successful brands can allow marketers to gain competitive advantage (Lassar et al.,1995), including the opportunity for successful extensions, resilience against competitors' promotional pressures, and the ability to create barriers to competitive entry (Farquhar, 1989). Branding plays a special role in service firms because strong brands increase trust in intangible products (Berry, 2000), enabling customers to better visualize and understand them. They reduce customers' perceived monetary, social, and safety risks in buying services, which are obstacles to evaluating a service correctly before purchase. Also, a high level of brand equity increases consumer satisfaction, repurchasing intent, and degree of loyalty. Brand equity can be considered as a mixture that includes both financial assets and relationships. Actually, brand equity can be viewed as the value added to the product (Keller, 1993), or the perceived value of the product in consumers' minds. Mahajan et al. (1990) claim that customer-based brand equity can be measured by the level of consumers' perceptions. Several researchers discuss brand equity based on two dimensions: consumer perception and consumer behavior. Aaker (1991) suggests measuring brand equity through price premium, loyalty, perceived quality, and brand associations. Viewing brand equity as the consumer's behavior toward a brand, Keller (1993) proposes similar dimensions: brand awareness and brand knowledge. Thus, past studies tend to identify brand equity as a multidimensional construct consisted of brand loyalty, brand awareness, brand knowledge, customer satisfaction, perceived equity, brand associations, and other proprietary assets (Aaker, 1991, 1996; Blackston, 1995; Cobb-Walgren et al., 1995; Na, 1995). Other studies tend to regard brand equity and other brand assets, such as brand knowledge, brand awareness, brand image, brand loyalty, perceived quality, and so on, as independent but related constructs (Keller, 1993; Kirmani and Zeithaml, 1993). Walters(1978) defined information search as, "A psychological or physical action a consumer takes in order to acquire information about a product or store." But, each consumer has different methods for informationsearch. There are two methods of information search, internal and external search. Internal search is, "Search of information already saved in the memory of the individual consumer"(Engel, Blackwell, 1982) which is, "memory of a previous purchase experience or information from a previous search."(Beales, Mazis, Salop, and Staelin, 1981). External search is "A completely voluntary decision made in order to obtain new information"(Engel & Blackwell, 1982) which is, "Actions of a consumer to acquire necessary information by such methods as intentionally exposing oneself to advertisements, taking to friends or family or visiting a store."(Beales, Mazis, Salop, and Staelin, 1981). There are many sources for consumers' information search including advertisement sources such as the internet, radio, television, newspapers and magazines, information supplied by businesses such as sales people, packaging and in-store information, consumer sources such as family, friends and colleagues, and mass media sources such as consumer protection agencies, government agencies and mass media sources. Understanding consumers' purchasing behavior is a key factor of a firm to attract and retain customers and improving the firm's prospects for survival and growth, and enhancing shareholder's value. Therefore, marketers should understand consumer as individual and market segment. One theory of consumer behavior supports the belief that individuals are rational. Individuals think and move through stages when making a purchase decision. This means that rational thinkers have led to the identification of a consumer buying decision process. This decision process with its different levels of involvement and influencing factors has been widely accepted and is fundamental to the understanding purchase intention represent to what consumers think they will buy. Brand equity is not only companies but also very important asset more than product itself. This paper studies brand equity model and influencing factors including information process such as information searching and information resources in the fashion market in Asia and Europe. Information searching and information resources are influencing brand knowledge that influences consumers purchase decision. Nine research hypotheses are drawn to test the relationships among antecedents of brand equity and purchase intention and relationships among brand knowledge, brand value, brand attitude, and brand loyalty. H1. Information searching influences brand knowledge positively. H2. Information sources influence brand knowledge positively. H3. Brand knowledge influences brand attitude. H4. Brand knowledge influences brand value. H5. Brand attitude influences brand loyalty. H6. Brand attitude influences brand value. H7. Brand loyalty influences purchase intention. H8. Brand value influence purchase intention. H9. There will be the same research model in Asia and Europe. We performed structural equation model analysis in order to test hypotheses suggested in this study. The model fitting index of the research model in Asia was $X^2$=195.19(p=0.0), NFI=0.90, NNFI=0.87, CFI=0.90, GFI=0.90, RMR=0.083, AGFI=0.85, which means the model fitting of the model is good enough. In Europe, it was $X^2$=133.25(p=0.0), NFI=0.81, NNFI=0.85, CFI=0.89, GFI=0.90, RMR=0.073, AGFI=0.85, which means the model fitting of the model is good enough. From the test results, hypotheses were accepted. All of these hypotheses except one are supported. In Europe, information search is not an antecedent of brand knowledge. This means that sales of global fashion brands like jeans in Europe are not expanding as rapidly as in Asian markets such as China, Japan, and South Korea. Young consumers in European countries are not more brand and fashion conscious than their counter partners in Asia. The results have theoretical, practical meaning and contributions. In the fashion jeans industry, relatively few studies examining the viability of cross-national brand equity has been studied. This study provides insight on building global brand equity and suggests information process elements like information search and information resources are working differently in Asia and Europe for fashion jean market.

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A Study on the Yousang-Dae Goksuro(Curve-Waterway) in Gangneung, Yungok-Myun, Yoodung Ri (강릉 연곡면 유등리 '유상대(流觴臺)' 곡수로(曲水路)의 조명(照明))

  • Rho, Jae-Hyun;Shin, Sang-Sup;Lee, Jung-Han;Huh, Jun;Park, Joo-Sung
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.14-21
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    • 2012
  • The object of the study, Yousang-Dae(流觴臺) and engraved Go broad text on the flat rock in Gangneung-si Yungok-myun Yoodung-ri Baemgol, reveals that the place was for appreciating arts like Yusang Goksu and Taoist hermit's games. three times of detail reconnaissance survey brought about the results as follows. There is a the text, Manwolsan(滿月山) Baegundongcheon(白雲洞天), engraved on the rock in Baegunsa(白雲寺) that had been built by Doun at the first year of King Hungang(in 875) of the United Shilla, became in ruins in the middle of Joseon, and then was rebuilt in 1954. The text is an invaluable evidence indicating that the tradition of Taoist hermit and Sunbee(classical scholars) culture has been generated in Baemgol Valley. According to the 2nd vol. of Donghoseungram(東湖勝覽), the chronicle of Gangneung published by Choi Baeksoon in 1934, there is a record saying that 'Baegunsa in Namjeonhyeon is the classroom where famous teachers like Yulgok Lee Yi or Seongje Choi Ok were teaching' that verifies the historic property of the place. In addition, the management of Nujeong(樓亭) and Dongcheon can be traced through Baegunjeong(白雲亭) constructed by Kim Yoonkyung(金潤卿) in Muo year, the 9th year of Cheoljong(1858) according to Donghoseungram and the completed version of Jeungboyimyoungji(增補臨瀛誌). Also, Baegundongdongcheon(白雲亭洞天), the text engraved on the standing stone across the stream from Yousang-Dae stone, was created 3 years after the Baegunjeong construction in the 12th year of Cheoljong(1861), which refers a symbolic sign closely related with Yousang-Dae. Based on this premise and circumstance, with careful studying the remains of 'Yusang-dae' Goksuro, we discovered that the Sebun-seok(細分石) controling the amount and the speed of moving water and the remains of furrows of Keumbae-soek(擒盃石) and Yubae-gong(留盃孔) containing water stream with cups through the mountain stream and rocks around Yusang-Dae. In addition, as 21 people's names engraved under the statement of 'Oh-Seong(午星)' were discovered on the bottom of the rock, this clearly confirms that the place was one of the main cultural footholds of tasting the arts which have characteristics of Yu-Sang-Gok-Su-Yeon(流觴曲水宴) until the middle of the 20th century. It implies that the arts tasting culture of Sunbees had been inherited centering on Yusang-dae in this particular place until the middle of the 20th century. It is necessary to be studied in depth because the place is a historic and unique cultural place where 'Confucianism, Buddhism, and Zen'were combined together. Based on the result of the study, the identification of 23 people as well as the writer of Yusang-Dae text should be carefully studied in depth in terms of the characteristics of the place through gathering data about appreciation of arts like Yusanggoksu. Likewise, we should make efforts to discover the chess board engraved on the rock described on the documents, thus we should consider to establish plans to recover the original shape of the place, for example, breaking the cement pavement of the road, additional excavation, changing the existing route, and so fourth.

DEVELOPMENT OF STATEWIDE TRUCK TRAFFIC FORECASTING METHOD BY USING LIMITED O-D SURVEY DATA (한정된 O-D조사자료를 이용한 주 전체의 트럭교통예측방법 개발)

  • 박만배
    • Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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    • 1995.02a
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    • pp.101-113
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    • 1995
  • The objective of this research is to test the feasibility of developing a statewide truck traffic forecasting methodology for Wisconsin by using Origin-Destination surveys, traffic counts, classification counts, and other data that are routinely collected by the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT). Development of a feasible model will permit estimation of future truck traffic for every major link in the network. This will provide the basis for improved estimation of future pavement deterioration. Pavement damage rises exponentially as axle weight increases, and trucks are responsible for most of the traffic-induced damage to pavement. Consequently, forecasts of truck traffic are critical to pavement management systems. The pavement Management Decision Supporting System (PMDSS) prepared by WisDOT in May 1990 combines pavement inventory and performance data with a knowledge base consisting of rules for evaluation, problem identification and rehabilitation recommendation. Without a r.easonable truck traffic forecasting methodology, PMDSS is not able to project pavement performance trends in order to make assessment and recommendations in the future years. However, none of WisDOT's existing forecasting methodologies has been designed specifically for predicting truck movements on a statewide highway network. For this research, the Origin-Destination survey data avaiiable from WisDOT, including two stateline areas, one county, and five cities, are analyzed and the zone-to'||'&'||'not;zone truck trip tables are developed. The resulting Origin-Destination Trip Length Frequency (00 TLF) distributions by trip type are applied to the Gravity Model (GM) for comparison with comparable TLFs from the GM. The gravity model is calibrated to obtain friction factor curves for the three trip types, Internal-Internal (I-I), Internal-External (I-E), and External-External (E-E). ~oth "macro-scale" calibration and "micro-scale" calibration are performed. The comparison of the statewide GM TLF with the 00 TLF for the macro-scale calibration does not provide suitable results because the available 00 survey data do not represent an unbiased sample of statewide truck trips. For the "micro-scale" calibration, "partial" GM trip tables that correspond to the 00 survey trip tables are extracted from the full statewide GM trip table. These "partial" GM trip tables are then merged and a partial GM TLF is created. The GM friction factor curves are adjusted until the partial GM TLF matches the 00 TLF. Three friction factor curves, one for each trip type, resulting from the micro-scale calibration produce a reasonable GM truck trip model. A key methodological issue for GM. calibration involves the use of multiple friction factor curves versus a single friction factor curve for each trip type in order to estimate truck trips with reasonable accuracy. A single friction factor curve for each of the three trip types was found to reproduce the 00 TLFs from the calibration data base. Given the very limited trip generation data available for this research, additional refinement of the gravity model using multiple mction factor curves for each trip type was not warranted. In the traditional urban transportation planning studies, the zonal trip productions and attractions and region-wide OD TLFs are available. However, for this research, the information available for the development .of the GM model is limited to Ground Counts (GC) and a limited set ofOD TLFs. The GM is calibrated using the limited OD data, but the OD data are not adequate to obtain good estimates of truck trip productions and attractions .. Consequently, zonal productions and attractions are estimated using zonal population as a first approximation. Then, Selected Link based (SELINK) analyses are used to adjust the productions and attractions and possibly recalibrate the GM. The SELINK adjustment process involves identifying the origins and destinations of all truck trips that are assigned to a specified "selected link" as the result of a standard traffic assignment. A link adjustment factor is computed as the ratio of the actual volume for the link (ground count) to the total assigned volume. This link adjustment factor is then applied to all of the origin and destination zones of the trips using that "selected link". Selected link based analyses are conducted by using both 16 selected links and 32 selected links. The result of SELINK analysis by u~ing 32 selected links provides the least %RMSE in the screenline volume analysis. In addition, the stability of the GM truck estimating model is preserved by using 32 selected links with three SELINK adjustments, that is, the GM remains calibrated despite substantial changes in the input productions and attractions. The coverage of zones provided by 32 selected links is satisfactory. Increasing the number of repetitions beyond four is not reasonable because the stability of GM model in reproducing the OD TLF reaches its limits. The total volume of truck traffic captured by 32 selected links is 107% of total trip productions. But more importantly, ~ELINK adjustment factors for all of the zones can be computed. Evaluation of the travel demand model resulting from the SELINK adjustments is conducted by using screenline volume analysis, functional class and route specific volume analysis, area specific volume analysis, production and attraction analysis, and Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) analysis. Screenline volume analysis by using four screenlines with 28 check points are used for evaluation of the adequacy of the overall model. The total trucks crossing the screenlines are compared to the ground count totals. L V/GC ratios of 0.958 by using 32 selected links and 1.001 by using 16 selected links are obtained. The %RM:SE for the four screenlines is inversely proportional to the average ground count totals by screenline .. The magnitude of %RM:SE for the four screenlines resulting from the fourth and last GM run by using 32 and 16 selected links is 22% and 31 % respectively. These results are similar to the overall %RMSE achieved for the 32 and 16 selected links themselves of 19% and 33% respectively. This implies that the SELINICanalysis results are reasonable for all sections of the state.Functional class and route specific volume analysis is possible by using the available 154 classification count check points. The truck traffic crossing the Interstate highways (ISH) with 37 check points, the US highways (USH) with 50 check points, and the State highways (STH) with 67 check points is compared to the actual ground count totals. The magnitude of the overall link volume to ground count ratio by route does not provide any specific pattern of over or underestimate. However, the %R11SE for the ISH shows the least value while that for the STH shows the largest value. This pattern is consistent with the screenline analysis and the overall relationship between %RMSE and ground count volume groups. Area specific volume analysis provides another broad statewide measure of the performance of the overall model. The truck traffic in the North area with 26 check points, the West area with 36 check points, the East area with 29 check points, and the South area with 64 check points are compared to the actual ground count totals. The four areas show similar results. No specific patterns in the L V/GC ratio by area are found. In addition, the %RMSE is computed for each of the four areas. The %RMSEs for the North, West, East, and South areas are 92%, 49%, 27%, and 35% respectively, whereas, the average ground counts are 481, 1383, 1532, and 3154 respectively. As for the screenline and volume range analyses, the %RMSE is inversely related to average link volume. 'The SELINK adjustments of productions and attractions resulted in a very substantial reduction in the total in-state zonal productions and attractions. The initial in-state zonal trip generation model can now be revised with a new trip production's trip rate (total adjusted productions/total population) and a new trip attraction's trip rate. Revised zonal production and attraction adjustment factors can then be developed that only reflect the impact of the SELINK adjustments that cause mcreases or , decreases from the revised zonal estimate of productions and attractions. Analysis of the revised production adjustment factors is conducted by plotting the factors on the state map. The east area of the state including the counties of Brown, Outagamie, Shawano, Wmnebago, Fond du Lac, Marathon shows comparatively large values of the revised adjustment factors. Overall, both small and large values of the revised adjustment factors are scattered around Wisconsin. This suggests that more independent variables beyond just 226; population are needed for the development of the heavy truck trip generation model. More independent variables including zonal employment data (office employees and manufacturing employees) by industry type, zonal private trucks 226; owned and zonal income data which are not available currently should be considered. A plot of frequency distribution of the in-state zones as a function of the revised production and attraction adjustment factors shows the overall " adjustment resulting from the SELINK analysis process. Overall, the revised SELINK adjustments show that the productions for many zones are reduced by, a factor of 0.5 to 0.8 while the productions for ~ relatively few zones are increased by factors from 1.1 to 4 with most of the factors in the 3.0 range. No obvious explanation for the frequency distribution could be found. The revised SELINK adjustments overall appear to be reasonable. The heavy truck VMT analysis is conducted by comparing the 1990 heavy truck VMT that is forecasted by the GM truck forecasting model, 2.975 billions, with the WisDOT computed data. This gives an estimate that is 18.3% less than the WisDOT computation of 3.642 billions of VMT. The WisDOT estimates are based on the sampling the link volumes for USH, 8TH, and CTH. This implies potential error in sampling the average link volume. The WisDOT estimate of heavy truck VMT cannot be tabulated by the three trip types, I-I, I-E ('||'&'||'pound;-I), and E-E. In contrast, the GM forecasting model shows that the proportion ofE-E VMT out of total VMT is 21.24%. In addition, tabulation of heavy truck VMT by route functional class shows that the proportion of truck traffic traversing the freeways and expressways is 76.5%. Only 14.1% of total freeway truck traffic is I-I trips, while 80% of total collector truck traffic is I-I trips. This implies that freeways are traversed mainly by I-E and E-E truck traffic while collectors are used mainly by I-I truck traffic. Other tabulations such as average heavy truck speed by trip type, average travel distance by trip type and the VMT distribution by trip type, route functional class and travel speed are useful information for highway planners to understand the characteristics of statewide heavy truck trip patternS. Heavy truck volumes for the target year 2010 are forecasted by using the GM truck forecasting model. Four scenarios are used. Fo~ better forecasting, ground count- based segment adjustment factors are developed and applied. ISH 90 '||'&'||' 94 and USH 41 are used as example routes. The forecasting results by using the ground count-based segment adjustment factors are satisfactory for long range planning purposes, but additional ground counts would be useful for USH 41. Sensitivity analysis provides estimates of the impacts of the alternative growth rates including information about changes in the trip types using key routes. The network'||'&'||'not;based GMcan easily model scenarios with different rates of growth in rural versus . . urban areas, small versus large cities, and in-state zones versus external stations. cities, and in-state zones versus external stations.

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