• 제목/요약/키워드: key for identification

검색결과 936건 처리시간 0.024초

임진정계시 '입지암류(入地暗流)'의 위치와 '토문강원(土門江源)'의 송화강 유입 여부 (A Reinvestigation on Key Issues Associated with the Yimjin(1712) Boundary Making and Demarcation: Location of 'Yipjiamlyu' and the Confluence of 'Tomungangweon' into the Sungari River)

  • 이강원
    • 대한지리학회지
    • /
    • 제50권6호
    • /
    • pp.571-605
    • /
    • 2015
  • 연구결과 다음과 같은 점이 확인되었다. 첫째, 목극등 지도의 '입지암류(入地暗流)'는 지리학적으로 '복류시작지점'을 의미하며, 오늘날 대각봉 북북동의 흑석구 하도, 해발고도 약 1,840m 지점이다. 둘째, 임진정계시 '토문강원(土門江源: 두만강원)'[흑석구]은 송화강에 유입되며, 목극등과 조선측 임진정계 참여자들도 1712년 5월 17~18일경 이 사실을 알았다. 이러한 두 가지 사실에 입각하여 임진정계를 재구성하면 다음과 같다. 목극등은 정계비를 압록강 송화강 최상류 분수계 부근에 세웠다. 압록강 토문강(두만강)의 최상류 분수계를 찾는다는 그의 의도대로라면, 정계비는 대연지봉에 세웠어야 한다. 5월 12일 그는 자신이 '토문강원(두만강원)'[흑석구]이라고 간주한 하도에서 '입지암류'를 발견했으며, 이곳으로부터 하도를 따라 복류하는 물이 다시 용출하여 토문강(두만강)이 된다고 생각하고, 5월 15일 정계비를 세웠다. 그러나 5월 17~18일경 이 하도가 토문강(두만강)이 아닌 '서류하천'(송화강 지류)에 연결된다는 것을 알았다. 이에 5월 19일 그는 다시 조선측이 가리킨 두만강(토문강) 용출처로 향했으며, 도중에 물이 나오는 것('수출(水出)')을 발견하고 자신이 '토문강원(두만강원)'이라고 생각한 물줄기가 다시 용출한 것이라고 지목하였다. 정계비로부터 이어지는 물줄기가 '입지암류' 지점에서 복류하기 시작하여 '수출'에서 다시 나와 토문강(두만강)이 된다고 이해한 것이다. 그는 "정계비-'토문강원(두만강원)'-'입지암류'-'수출'-토문강(두만강) 본류"로 물이 이어진다고 생각하고, 이를 조 청 국경으로 삼았으며, 그중 "정계비-'토문강원(두만강원)'-'입지암류'-'수출'"을 따라 경계표지물을 설치할 것을 조선측에 요구하였다. 그러나 목극등 귀국 후인 8월초 조선측 경계표지물 설치 실무자들은 목극등이 지목한 '수출'이 두만강(토문강) 수계가 아니라는 점을 알게 되었다. 조선측 실무자들은 "정계비-'토문강원(두만강원)'-황화송전자 부근-'수출'"을 목극등이 설정한 경계로 이해하고 경계표지물 설치작업을 하다가, 자신들이 확인한 두만강(토문강) 용출처까지 경계표지물을 연결하였다. 조선정부도 1713년 3월 이를 추인하였고, 이후 이러한 실무자들의 견해에 따라 중간의 경계표지물 미설치 구간에 대한 공사를 진행하였다. 경계표지물 설치에 대한 목극등의 요구와 조선측의 실행 사이에는 상당한 차이가 존재한다. 조선측 실무자들이 이렇게 경계표지물을 설치한 것은 황화송전자 부근을 목극등의 '입지암류' 지점으로 이해했고, 자신들이 확인한 두만강(토문강) 용출처가 진정한 두만강(토문강) 용출처라고 생각했기 때문이다. 임진정계시 조 청 모두 압록강과 두만강(토문강)을 국경으로 인식하고 정계에 임하였다. 문제는 두만강(토문강) 수계를 잘못 이해했다는 점이다. 압록강에 대한 수계 판단은 비교적 정확했으나, 두만강(토문강)에 대한 수계 판단에서 유일하게 옳았던 것은 조선측 실무자들이 발견한 두만강(토문강) 용출처였을 뿐이다.

  • PDF

Hybrid CNN-LSTM 알고리즘을 활용한 도시철도 내 피플 카운팅 연구 (A Study on People Counting in Public Metro Service using Hybrid CNN-LSTM Algorithm)

  • 최지혜;김민승;이찬호;최정환;이정희;성태응
    • 지능정보연구
    • /
    • 제26권2호
    • /
    • pp.131-145
    • /
    • 2020
  • 산업혁신의 흐름에 발맞추어 다양한 분야에서 활용되고 있는 IoT 기술은 빅데이터의 접목을 통한 새로운 비즈니스 모델의 창출 및 사용자 친화적 서비스 제공의 핵심적인 요소로 부각되고 있다. 사물인터넷이 적용된 디바이스에서 누적된 데이터는 사용자 환경 및 패턴 분석을 통해 맞춤형 지능 시스템을 제공해줄 수 있어 편의 기반 스마트 시스템 구축에 다방면으로 활용되고 있다. 최근에는 이를 공공영역 혁신에 확대 적용하여 CCTV를 활용한 교통 범죄 문제 해결 등 스마트시티, 스마트 교통 등에 활용하고 있다. 그러나 이미지 데이터를 활용하는 기존 연구에서는 개인에 대한 사생활 침해 문제 및 비(非)일반적 상황에서 객체 감지 성능이 저하되는 한계가 있다. 본 연구에 활용된 IoT 디바이스 기반의 센서 데이터는 개인에 대한 식별이 불필요해 사생활 이슈로부터 자유로운 데이터로, 불특정 다수를 위한 지능형 공공서비스 구축에 효과적으로 활용될 수 있다. 대다수의 국민들이 일상적으로 활용하는 도시철도에서의 지능형 보행자 트래킹 시스템에 IoT 기반의 적외선 센서 디바이스를 활용하고자 하였으며 센서로부터 측정된 온도 데이터를 실시간 송출하고, CNN-LSTM(Convolutional Neural Network-Long Short Term Memory) 알고리즘을 활용하여 구간 내 보행 인원의 수를 예측하고자 하였다. 실험 결과 MLP(Multi-Layer Perceptron) 및 LSTM(Long Short-Term Memory), RNN-LSTM(Recurrent Neural Network-Long Short Term Memory)에 비해 제안한 CNN-LSTM 하이브리드 모형이 가장 우수한 예측성능을 보임을 확인하였다. 본 논문에서 제안한 디바이스 및 모델을 활용하여 그간 개인정보와 관련된 법적 문제로 인해 서비스 제공이 미흡했던 대중교통 내 실시간 모니터링 및 혼잡도 기반의 위기상황 대응 서비스 등 종합적 메트로 서비스를 제공할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

Brief Introduction of Research Progresses in Control and Biocontrol of Clubroot Disease in China

  • He, Yueqiu;Wu, Yixin;He, Pengfei;Li, Xinyu
    • 한국균학회소식:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국균학회 2015년도 춘계학술대회 및 임시총회
    • /
    • pp.45-46
    • /
    • 2015
  • Clubroot disease of crucifers has occurred since 1957. It has spread to the whole China, especially in the southwest and nourtheast where it causes 30-80% loss in some fields. The disease has being expanded in the recent years as seeds are imported and the floating seedling system practices. For its effective control, the Ministry of Agriculture of China set up a program in 2010 and a research team led by Dr. Yueqiu HE, Yunnan Agricultural University. The team includes 20 main reseachers of 11 universities and 5 institutions. After 5 years, the team has made a lot of progresses in disease occurrence regulation, resources collection, resistance identification and breeding, biological agent exploration, formulation, chemicals evaluation, and control strategy. About 1200 collections of local and commercial crucifers were identified in the field and by artificiall inoculation in the laboratories, 10 resistant cultivars were breeded including 7 Chinese cabbages and 3 cabbages. More than 800 antagostic strains were isolated including bacteria, stretomyces and fungi. Around 100 chemicals were evaluated in the field and greenhouse based on its control effect, among them, 6 showed high control effect, especially fluazinam and cyazofamid could control about 80% the disease. However, fluzinam has negative effect on soil microbes. Clubroot disease could not be controlled by bioagents and chemicals once when the pathogen Plasmodiophora brassicae infected its hosts and set up the parasitic relationship. We found the earlier the pathogent infected its host, the severer the disease was. Therefore, early control was the most effective. For Chinese cabbage, all controlling measures should be taken in the early 30 days because the new infection could not cause severe symptom after 30 days of seeding. For example, a biocontrol agent, Bacillus subtilis Strain XF-1 could control the disease 70%-85% averagely when it mixed with seedling substrate and was drenching 3 times after transplanting, i.e. immediately, 7 days, 14 days. XF-1 has been deeply researched in control mechanisms, its genome, and development and application of biocontrol formulate. It could produce antagonistic protein, enzyme, antibiotics and IAA, which promoted rhizogenesis and growth. Its The genome was sequenced by Illumina/Solexa Genome Analyzer to assembled into 20 scaffolds then the gaps between scaffolds were filled by long fragment PCR amplification to obtain complet genmone with 4,061,186 bp in size. The whole genome was found to have 43.8% GC, 108 tandem repeats with an average of 2.65 copies and 84 transposons. The CDSs were predicted as 3,853 in which 112 CDSs were predicted to secondary metabolite biosynthesis, transport and catabolism. Among those, five NRPS/PKS giant gene clusters being responsible for the biosynthesis of polyketide (pksABCDEFHJLMNRS in size 72.9 kb), surfactin(srfABCD, 26.148 kb, bacilysin(bacABCDE 5.903 kb), bacillibactin(dhbABCEF, 11.774 kb) and fengycin(ppsABCDE, 37.799 kb) have high homolgous to fuction confirmed biosynthesis gene in other strain. Moreover, there are many of key regulatory genes for secondary metabolites from XF-1, such as comABPQKX Z, degQ, sfp, yczE, degU, ycxABCD and ywfG. were also predicted. Therefore, XF-1 has potential of biosynthesis for secondary metabolites surfactin, fengycin, bacillibactin, bacilysin and Bacillaene. Thirty two compounds were detected from cell extracts of XF-1 by MALDI-TOF-MS, including one Macrolactin (m/z 441.06), two fusaricidin (m/z 850.493 and 968.515), one circulocin (m/z 852.509), nine surfactin (m/z 1044.656~1102.652), five iturin (m/z 1096.631~1150.57) and forty fengycin (m/z 1449.79~1543.805). The top three compositions types (contening 56.67% of total extract) are surfactin, iturin and fengycin, in which the most abundant is the surfactin type composition 30.37% of total extract and in second place is the fengycin with 23.28% content with rich diversity of chemical structure, and the smallest one is the iturin with 3.02% content. Moreover, the same main compositions were detected in Bacillus sp.355 which is also a good effects biocontol bacterial for controlling the clubroot of crucifer. Wherefore those compounds surfactin, iturin and fengycin maybe the main active compositions of XF-1 against P. brassicae. Twenty one fengycin type compounds were evaluate by LC-ESI-MS/MS with antifungal activities, including fengycin A $C_{16{\sim}C19}$, fengycin B $C_{14{\sim}C17}$, fengycin C $C_{15{\sim}C18}$, fengycin D $C_{15{\sim}C18}$ and fengycin S $C_{15{\sim}C18}$. Furthermore, one novel compound was identified as Dehydroxyfengycin $C_{17}$ according its MS, 1D and 2D NMR spectral data, which molecular weight is 1488.8480 Da and formula $C_{75}H_{116}N_{12}O_{19}$. The fengycin type compounds (FTCPs $250{\mu}g/mL$) were used to treat the resting spores of P. brassicae ($10^7/mL$) by detecting leakage of the cytoplasm components and cell destruction. After 12 h treatment, the absorbencies at 260 nm (A260) and at 280 nm (A280) increased gradually to approaching the maximum of absorbance, accompanying the collapse of P. brassicae resting spores, and nearly no complete cells were observed at 24 h treatment. The results suggested that the cells could be lyzed by the FTCPs of XF-1, and the diversity of FTCPs was mainly attributed to a mechanism of clubroot disease biocontrol. In the five selected medium MOLP, PSA, LB, Landy and LD, the most suitable for growth of strain medium is MOLP, and the least for strains longevity is the Landy sucrose medium. However, the lipopeptide highest yield is in Landy sucrose medium. The lipopeptides in five medium were analyzed with HPLC, and the results showed that lipopeptides component were same, while their contents from B. subtilis XF-1 fermented in five medium were different. We found that it is the lipopeptides content but ingredients of XF-1 could be impacted by medium and lacking of nutrition seems promoting lipopeptides secretion from XF-1. The volatile components with inhibition fungal Cylindrocarpon spp. activity which were collect in sealed vesel were detected with metheds of HS-SPME-GC-MS in eight biocontrol Bacillus species and four positive mutant strains of XF-1 mutagenized with chemical mutagens, respectively. They have same main volatile components including pyrazine, aldehydes, oxazolidinone and sulfide which are composed of 91.62% in XF-1, in which, the most abundant is the pyrazine type composition with 47.03%, and in second place is the aldehydes with 23.84%, and the third place is oxazolidinone with 15.68%, and the smallest ones is the sulfide with 5.07%.

  • PDF

상표자산과 구매의도와의 관계에 관한 국제비교연구 - 아시아와 유럽의 의류시장을 중심으로 - (Brand Equity and Purchase Intention in Fashion Products: A Cross-Cultural Study in Asia and Europe)

  • 김경훈;고은주;;;이동해;정홍섭;전병주;문학일
    • 마케팅과학연구
    • /
    • 제18권4호
    • /
    • pp.245-276
    • /
    • 2008
  • 본 연구는 상표자산의 구성요소에 대한 선행요인을 분석하고 이를 토대로 하여 상표자산 구성요소와 상표자산 영향요인간의 관계 그리고 상표자산 구성요소와 구매의도간의 관계를 규명하고 한국과 영국을 중심으로 비교하여 상표자산관리 방안을 도출해보고자 하였다. 연구결과, 정보탐색은 제품지식에 정(+)의 영향을 미치며, 상표태도와 상표지식은 상표 충성도와 상표 가치에 정(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 상표충성도와 상표가치는 구매의도에 정(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 정보원천의 경우, 한국에서는 제품지식에 정(+)의 영향을 미치고 있는 반면, 영국에서는 영향을 미치지 않는 것으로 나타났다.

  • PDF

강릉 연곡면 유등리 '유상대(流觴臺)' 곡수로(曲水路)의 조명(照明) (A Study on the Yousang-Dae Goksuro(Curve-Waterway) in Gangneung, Yungok-Myun, Yoodung Ri)

  • 노재현;신상섭;이정한;허준;박주성
    • 한국전통조경학회지
    • /
    • 제30권1호
    • /
    • pp.14-21
    • /
    • 2012
  • 본 연구 대상인 강원도 강릉시 연곡동 유등리 뱀골 하류의 너럭바위에 새겨진 '유상대(流觴臺)' 각자와 암각바둑판은 이곳이 유상곡수 놀이와 신선 풍류 행위가 이루어졌던 풍류처임을 확인시켜 준다. 3차에 걸친 정밀답사를 통해 다음과 같은 결과를 얻었다. 통일신라 헌강왕 원년(875)에 도운(道雲)에 의해 창건되었으나 조선 중기 이후 폐허가 되었고, 1954년에 재건된, 백운사 경내에 새겨진 '만월산 백운동천(萬月山白雲洞天)'이란 암각서는 뱀골 계곡에 선도적(仙道的)풍류와 선비문화의 전통이 면면히 스며있음을 보여주는 소중한 단서이다. 최백순이 1934년 편찬한 강릉의 읍지인 동호승람 제2권에 인종원년(1545)을 전후하여 '남전현(籃田縣)의 백운사는 율곡 이이, 성제 최옥 등 명유(名儒)의 강례처(講禮處)'라고 기록되어 있는 것으로 보아 이 공간이 유서 깊은 공간임을 알 수 있다. 또한 동호승람과 완역 증보임영지에 기술된 무오년, 즉 철종9년(1858) 김윤경(金潤卿)이 창건한 백운정(白雲亭)의 존재를 통해 누정 및 동천 경영의 흔적을 추론할 수 있다. 아울러 유상대 각자 바위 계류 건너 입석에 새겨진 '백운정동천(白雲亭洞天)' 암각서는 백운정 건립 3년 뒤인 철종12년(1861)에 조성되었으며, 유상대와 매우 깊은 연관성이 있는 상징적 표식임을 알 수 있다. 이와 같은 정황과 입지성을 전제로 유상대 곡수유구 흔적을 면밀히 검토한 결과 유상대 주변 계류 및 암반에는 수량과 유속을 조절하기 위한 세분석(細分石)과, 유로와 잔을 가두기 위한 홈인 금배석(擒盃石)과 유배공(留盃孔)의 조탁 흔적 등을 발견하였다. 더불어 하단 암벽에서 '오성(午星)'이란 명기 아래 23인명의 각자를 발견하게 됨에 따라 이곳이 20C중반까지 유상곡수연의 성격을 갖는 풍류 문화경관의 거점임을 확신하게 되었다. 따라서 이 공간에서는 적어도 20세기 중반까지 유상대를 중심으로 한 선비 풍류의 문화가 전승된 것으로 추정되며, 이는 '유 불 선(儒 彿 仙)이 습합된 독특한 역사문화공간'이란 측면에서도 심도 있게 검토되어야 할 것으로 본다. 본 연구 성과를 바탕으로 앞으로 23인명의 정체와 유상대 각자 주체 파악 등 유상곡수 등 풍류행위를 기록한 자료 발굴 등을 통해 본 공간의 성격을 보다 면밀히 검토해야 할 것으로 판단된다. 또한 기록에 전해지는 암각장기판 또한 발굴되어야 할 것으로 보이는 바, 현재 콘크리트포장 도로의 파쇄를 통한 추가 유적의 발굴 및 노선 변경 등 원형경관 회복방안 또한 시급히 검토되어야 할 것이다.

한정된 O-D조사자료를 이용한 주 전체의 트럭교통예측방법 개발 (DEVELOPMENT OF STATEWIDE TRUCK TRAFFIC FORECASTING METHOD BY USING LIMITED O-D SURVEY DATA)

  • 박만배
    • 대한교통학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 대한교통학회 1995년도 제27회 학술발표회
    • /
    • pp.101-113
    • /
    • 1995
  • The objective of this research is to test the feasibility of developing a statewide truck traffic forecasting methodology for Wisconsin by using Origin-Destination surveys, traffic counts, classification counts, and other data that are routinely collected by the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT). Development of a feasible model will permit estimation of future truck traffic for every major link in the network. This will provide the basis for improved estimation of future pavement deterioration. Pavement damage rises exponentially as axle weight increases, and trucks are responsible for most of the traffic-induced damage to pavement. Consequently, forecasts of truck traffic are critical to pavement management systems. The pavement Management Decision Supporting System (PMDSS) prepared by WisDOT in May 1990 combines pavement inventory and performance data with a knowledge base consisting of rules for evaluation, problem identification and rehabilitation recommendation. Without a r.easonable truck traffic forecasting methodology, PMDSS is not able to project pavement performance trends in order to make assessment and recommendations in the future years. However, none of WisDOT's existing forecasting methodologies has been designed specifically for predicting truck movements on a statewide highway network. For this research, the Origin-Destination survey data avaiiable from WisDOT, including two stateline areas, one county, and five cities, are analyzed and the zone-to'||'&'||'not;zone truck trip tables are developed. The resulting Origin-Destination Trip Length Frequency (00 TLF) distributions by trip type are applied to the Gravity Model (GM) for comparison with comparable TLFs from the GM. The gravity model is calibrated to obtain friction factor curves for the three trip types, Internal-Internal (I-I), Internal-External (I-E), and External-External (E-E). ~oth "macro-scale" calibration and "micro-scale" calibration are performed. The comparison of the statewide GM TLF with the 00 TLF for the macro-scale calibration does not provide suitable results because the available 00 survey data do not represent an unbiased sample of statewide truck trips. For the "micro-scale" calibration, "partial" GM trip tables that correspond to the 00 survey trip tables are extracted from the full statewide GM trip table. These "partial" GM trip tables are then merged and a partial GM TLF is created. The GM friction factor curves are adjusted until the partial GM TLF matches the 00 TLF. Three friction factor curves, one for each trip type, resulting from the micro-scale calibration produce a reasonable GM truck trip model. A key methodological issue for GM. calibration involves the use of multiple friction factor curves versus a single friction factor curve for each trip type in order to estimate truck trips with reasonable accuracy. A single friction factor curve for each of the three trip types was found to reproduce the 00 TLFs from the calibration data base. Given the very limited trip generation data available for this research, additional refinement of the gravity model using multiple mction factor curves for each trip type was not warranted. In the traditional urban transportation planning studies, the zonal trip productions and attractions and region-wide OD TLFs are available. However, for this research, the information available for the development .of the GM model is limited to Ground Counts (GC) and a limited set ofOD TLFs. The GM is calibrated using the limited OD data, but the OD data are not adequate to obtain good estimates of truck trip productions and attractions .. Consequently, zonal productions and attractions are estimated using zonal population as a first approximation. Then, Selected Link based (SELINK) analyses are used to adjust the productions and attractions and possibly recalibrate the GM. The SELINK adjustment process involves identifying the origins and destinations of all truck trips that are assigned to a specified "selected link" as the result of a standard traffic assignment. A link adjustment factor is computed as the ratio of the actual volume for the link (ground count) to the total assigned volume. This link adjustment factor is then applied to all of the origin and destination zones of the trips using that "selected link". Selected link based analyses are conducted by using both 16 selected links and 32 selected links. The result of SELINK analysis by u~ing 32 selected links provides the least %RMSE in the screenline volume analysis. In addition, the stability of the GM truck estimating model is preserved by using 32 selected links with three SELINK adjustments, that is, the GM remains calibrated despite substantial changes in the input productions and attractions. The coverage of zones provided by 32 selected links is satisfactory. Increasing the number of repetitions beyond four is not reasonable because the stability of GM model in reproducing the OD TLF reaches its limits. The total volume of truck traffic captured by 32 selected links is 107% of total trip productions. But more importantly, ~ELINK adjustment factors for all of the zones can be computed. Evaluation of the travel demand model resulting from the SELINK adjustments is conducted by using screenline volume analysis, functional class and route specific volume analysis, area specific volume analysis, production and attraction analysis, and Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) analysis. Screenline volume analysis by using four screenlines with 28 check points are used for evaluation of the adequacy of the overall model. The total trucks crossing the screenlines are compared to the ground count totals. L V/GC ratios of 0.958 by using 32 selected links and 1.001 by using 16 selected links are obtained. The %RM:SE for the four screenlines is inversely proportional to the average ground count totals by screenline .. The magnitude of %RM:SE for the four screenlines resulting from the fourth and last GM run by using 32 and 16 selected links is 22% and 31 % respectively. These results are similar to the overall %RMSE achieved for the 32 and 16 selected links themselves of 19% and 33% respectively. This implies that the SELINICanalysis results are reasonable for all sections of the state.Functional class and route specific volume analysis is possible by using the available 154 classification count check points. The truck traffic crossing the Interstate highways (ISH) with 37 check points, the US highways (USH) with 50 check points, and the State highways (STH) with 67 check points is compared to the actual ground count totals. The magnitude of the overall link volume to ground count ratio by route does not provide any specific pattern of over or underestimate. However, the %R11SE for the ISH shows the least value while that for the STH shows the largest value. This pattern is consistent with the screenline analysis and the overall relationship between %RMSE and ground count volume groups. Area specific volume analysis provides another broad statewide measure of the performance of the overall model. The truck traffic in the North area with 26 check points, the West area with 36 check points, the East area with 29 check points, and the South area with 64 check points are compared to the actual ground count totals. The four areas show similar results. No specific patterns in the L V/GC ratio by area are found. In addition, the %RMSE is computed for each of the four areas. The %RMSEs for the North, West, East, and South areas are 92%, 49%, 27%, and 35% respectively, whereas, the average ground counts are 481, 1383, 1532, and 3154 respectively. As for the screenline and volume range analyses, the %RMSE is inversely related to average link volume. 'The SELINK adjustments of productions and attractions resulted in a very substantial reduction in the total in-state zonal productions and attractions. The initial in-state zonal trip generation model can now be revised with a new trip production's trip rate (total adjusted productions/total population) and a new trip attraction's trip rate. Revised zonal production and attraction adjustment factors can then be developed that only reflect the impact of the SELINK adjustments that cause mcreases or , decreases from the revised zonal estimate of productions and attractions. Analysis of the revised production adjustment factors is conducted by plotting the factors on the state map. The east area of the state including the counties of Brown, Outagamie, Shawano, Wmnebago, Fond du Lac, Marathon shows comparatively large values of the revised adjustment factors. Overall, both small and large values of the revised adjustment factors are scattered around Wisconsin. This suggests that more independent variables beyond just 226; population are needed for the development of the heavy truck trip generation model. More independent variables including zonal employment data (office employees and manufacturing employees) by industry type, zonal private trucks 226; owned and zonal income data which are not available currently should be considered. A plot of frequency distribution of the in-state zones as a function of the revised production and attraction adjustment factors shows the overall " adjustment resulting from the SELINK analysis process. Overall, the revised SELINK adjustments show that the productions for many zones are reduced by, a factor of 0.5 to 0.8 while the productions for ~ relatively few zones are increased by factors from 1.1 to 4 with most of the factors in the 3.0 range. No obvious explanation for the frequency distribution could be found. The revised SELINK adjustments overall appear to be reasonable. The heavy truck VMT analysis is conducted by comparing the 1990 heavy truck VMT that is forecasted by the GM truck forecasting model, 2.975 billions, with the WisDOT computed data. This gives an estimate that is 18.3% less than the WisDOT computation of 3.642 billions of VMT. The WisDOT estimates are based on the sampling the link volumes for USH, 8TH, and CTH. This implies potential error in sampling the average link volume. The WisDOT estimate of heavy truck VMT cannot be tabulated by the three trip types, I-I, I-E ('||'&'||'pound;-I), and E-E. In contrast, the GM forecasting model shows that the proportion ofE-E VMT out of total VMT is 21.24%. In addition, tabulation of heavy truck VMT by route functional class shows that the proportion of truck traffic traversing the freeways and expressways is 76.5%. Only 14.1% of total freeway truck traffic is I-I trips, while 80% of total collector truck traffic is I-I trips. This implies that freeways are traversed mainly by I-E and E-E truck traffic while collectors are used mainly by I-I truck traffic. Other tabulations such as average heavy truck speed by trip type, average travel distance by trip type and the VMT distribution by trip type, route functional class and travel speed are useful information for highway planners to understand the characteristics of statewide heavy truck trip patternS. Heavy truck volumes for the target year 2010 are forecasted by using the GM truck forecasting model. Four scenarios are used. Fo~ better forecasting, ground count- based segment adjustment factors are developed and applied. ISH 90 '||'&'||' 94 and USH 41 are used as example routes. The forecasting results by using the ground count-based segment adjustment factors are satisfactory for long range planning purposes, but additional ground counts would be useful for USH 41. Sensitivity analysis provides estimates of the impacts of the alternative growth rates including information about changes in the trip types using key routes. The network'||'&'||'not;based GMcan easily model scenarios with different rates of growth in rural versus . . urban areas, small versus large cities, and in-state zones versus external stations. cities, and in-state zones versus external stations.

  • PDF