• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.5-37
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• 2011

This article aims to clarify what is the best investment behavior in Capital Intensive Industries(hereinafter CIIs) which show repeated business cycles. In CIIs, investments is centered in the period of upturns and goes beyond the adequate level because of the time that takes to completion of facilities. This over-investment causes oversupply and downturn, and in period of downturn, investments shrinks under the adequate level. The repeated change of over-investment and under-investment is the reason for the business cycles. In this article, a simulation model replicating the business cycles in CIIs was constructed and the effects of various investment strategies was tested. The results are as follows. First, the investment behavior following market condition causes the ongoing fluctuation of profits. Second, strategic increase in flexibility such as adjustment of facility utilization and shortening of facility construction time contributes to the increase in profit and stabilization of income. Third, in relation to market condition, the constant investment is more profitable in stagnated market and the counter-market investment is more profitable in growing market. In sum, it is desirable not to synchronize their investment with those of competitors.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.29-50
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• 2005

Real options provide a new and productive way to view corporate r&d investment decisions. DCF approach is well established and beloved of financial executives, but is known to systematically underestimate investment value under significant uncertainty. Though real options are not inherent in a r&d investment, they can be used to compute the investment value including managerial flexibility like option value. In this paper, we explain how the interval of option value in black-scholes model can be estimated using simulation. We also present a process framework for interval estimation of volatility and efficient of period of investment value. In such a setting, we can obtain the appropriate interval estimation of the expanded investment value.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 1995.09a
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• pp.156-169
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• 1995

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of government in innovation. That is, how much should government invest in R&D activity for social welfare enhancement. An optimal control problem is proposed to answer the above question. Because of difficulties in solving the problem, simulation utilized to find an approximate solution. All results obtained from the simulation are very similar. The investment in R&D activity increases and reaches its maximum and then decreases continuously. If the importance of technology grows the investment in R&D activity should be expanded.

• Proceedings of the Korean System Dynamics Society
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• 2004.02a
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• pp.19-52
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• 2004

This study aims to grasp invisible yet dynamic systemic structure that influences the general procedure of national R＆D investment system in Korea using "system dynamic methods and to suggest policy lever. Various conflicting situations, 'R＆D investment paradoxes' in myopia investment and principal-agent problems etc, arise when the government decides R＆D investment area and makes indispensable choice. Difficulty in the decision can be amplified due to misalignments among decision on adequate amount of R＆D investment ("strategic loop"), R＆D system ("structural loop") and acceptance and realization by R＆D laboratories and theirs researcher ("efficacy loop"). Results of modeling and simulation of korea national R＆D investment system with consideration of three causal loops show the switching pattern dynamically, in which form of technologies shifts from one to another stage like paradigm shift, when the R＆D investment reaches a certain stork. R＆D investment increases are directly not liked to R＆D productivities because of delays and side effects during transition periods between different stages of technology development. Thus, It is necessary to develope strategies in order to enhance efficiency of technological development process by perceiving the switching pattern.

• KIEAE Journal
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• v.15 no.6
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• pp.57-62
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• 2015

Purpose: This study, which is based on the investment payback periods, aims to suggest the proper insulation level which can be adapted to the Defense Military Facility Criteria regarding the military residential condominiums. For the energy performance simulation, it is required to collect the residential data regarding the military condominiums and climatic data concerning the regions they belongs to. The estimates through energy performance simulation are the regional heating loads and the heating transmission coefficients of building components. Method: With the heating loads, the annual heating cost saving per square meters is assessed. With the heating transmission coefficients of building components, the additional insulation installment cost per square meters is evaluated. With two outcomes, one as an annual value and the other as a present value, the investment payback period is calculated. Result: In result, it could be concluded that 55~70% insulation ratio can lead a superior residental environments as well as be contributed to the national policy associated with zero-energy buildings because the estimated investment payback period is shorter than the life span of the military residental condominiums. This upshot can be used as a foundation to enactment the Defense Military Facility Criteria associated with military residential condominiums.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 1997.10a
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• pp.138-141
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• 1997

In this study, a simulation model is developed to analyze the effects of routing and scale-economy of transmission facilities on the traffic network topology and investment cost changes in a metropolitan telephone network. Computational experiments showed that the wide deployment of bifurcated routing in a dual-homing configuration reduces significantly the traffic network connectivity and the investment cost. Its enhanced version, when combined with the subscriber network cost model, can be used as a prototype cost proxy model for figuring out the access charges in a multi-operator environment.

• 연구논문집
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• s.29
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• pp.173-183
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• 1999

The vacuum investment casting process for a large gas turbine component, Inner Preswirl Support (IPS), was simulated by using commercial FEM package ProCAST(TM) with view factor radiation method. The solid fraction in mushy zone was directly measured by Differential thermal analysis(DTA-DSC mode). Three types gating design. considering liquid flow and heat release through it. were proposed. Solidification had begun at the ribs or thin sections of the IPS casting and advanced further through the upper and lower gates. The computed temperature gradient G and G/R values at 70% solidified temperature were used for prediction of microshrinkage formation during casting. The effect of mold preheat on the thermal history of the casting displayed minute effect on the microshrinkage formation.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.9 no.5
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• pp.925-945
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• 2000

This paper analyses the impact of energy-saving investment on Greenhouse gas emissions using a model of energy demand in Korea. SUR method was employed to estimate the demand equation. The econometric estimates provide information about the energy price divisia index, sector income, and energy saving-investment elasticities of energy demand. Except for energy price divisia, the elasticities of each variable are statistically significant. Also, the price and substitution elasticities of each energy price are similar to the results reported by the previous studies. The energy-saving investment is statistically significant and elasticities of each sector is inelastic. Using the coefficient of energy-saving investment and carbon transmission coefficient, the amount of reduction of energy demand and the reduction of carbon emissions can be estimated. The simulation is performed with the scenario that the energy-saving investment increase by 10~50%, keeping up with Equipment Investment Plan of 30% increase in energy-saving investment by 2000. The results show that the reduction of energy demand measured as 11.2% based upon 1995's level of the energy demand, in industrial sector. Accordingly, the carbon emissions will be reduced by 11.3% based upon 1995's level of the carbon emissions in industrial sector.

• 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2007.11a
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• pp.357-360
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• 2007

Any investment analysis has to deal with the uncertainty that arises over the course of operating the invested project. When it comes to an wind power, such analysis gets even more complicated, as the wind resource or the current is inherently unstable and unpredictable. Different from predecessors in the field of analyzing wind power economics, this paper proposes a stochastic methodology of analyzing the economic efficiency of an investment in wind power to explicitly address those uncertainties or risks. A probability distribution is assigned to each variable to generate a probability distribution of the economic value of an investment through a Monte-Carlo simulation

• Journal of Korea Foundry Society
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• v.12 no.5
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• pp.378-389
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• 1992

A numerical model based on the SOLA-VOF method, which can calculate the transient free-surface configuration of the melt, has been developed in order to analyze melt flow in the investment mold. The computational results were compared with experimental results obtained from pure aluminum investment casting. Heat transfer analysis, with and without consideration of melt flow effect has been performed. It can be concluded that analysis of melt flow in the investment mold, provides the optimum conditions for gating design. It also enables more precise solidification simulation, since heat loss, while filling the thin and complex investment mold, plays an important role in determining the solidification sequence.