• 제목/요약/키워드: interannual variation

검색결과 61건 처리시간 0.027초

Hadley Circulation Strength Change in Response to Global Warming: Statistics of Good Models

  • Son, Jun-Hyeok;Seo, Kyong-Hwan
    • 대기
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    • 제26권4호
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    • pp.665-672
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    • 2016
  • In this study, we examine future changes in the Hadley cell (HC) strength using CMIP5 climate change simulations. The current study is an extension of a previous study by Seo et al. that used all 30 available models. Here, we select 18-23 well-performing models based on their significant internal sensitivity of the interannual HC strength variation to the latitudinal temperature gradient variation. The model projections along with simple scaling analysis show that the inter-model variability in the HC strength change is a result of the inter-model spread in the meridional temperature gradient across the subtropics for both DJF and JJA, not by the tropopause height or gross static stability change. The HC strength is expected to weaken significantly during DJF, while little change is expected in the JJA HC strength. Compared to the calculations with all model members, selected model statistics increase the linear correlation between the changes in HC strength and meridional temperature gradient by 13~23%, confirming the robust sensitivity of the HC strength to the meridional temperature gradient. Two scaling equations for the selected models predict changes in HC strength better than all-member predictions. In particular, the prediction improvement in DJF is as high as 30%. The simple scaling relations successfully predict both the ensemble-mean changes and model-to-model variations in the HC strength for both seasons.

MJO의 다중스케일 분석을 통한 수십년 변동성 (A multi-scale analysis of the interdecadal change in the Madden-Julian Oscillation)

  • 이상헌;서경환
    • 대기
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    • 제21권2호
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    • pp.143-149
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    • 2011
  • A new multi-timescale analysis method, Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), is used to diagnose the variation of the MJO activity determined by 850hPa and 200hPa zonal winds from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Reanalysis data for the 56-yr period from 1950 to 2005. The results show that MJO activity can be decomposed into 9 quasi-periodic oscillations and a trend. With each level of contribution of the quasi-periodic oscillation discussed, the bi-seasonal oscillation, the interannual oscillation and the trend of the MJO activity are the most prominent features. The trend increases almost linearly, so that prior to around 1978 the activity of the MJO is lower than that during the latter part. This may be related to the tropical sea surface temperature(SST). It is speculated that the interdecadal change in the MJO activity appeared in around 1978 is related to the warmer SST in the equatorial warm pool, especially over the Indian Ocean.

Volume Transport through the La-Perouse (Soya) Strait between the East Sea (Sea of Japan) and the Sea of Okhotsk

  • Saveliev Aleksandr Vladimirovich;Danchenkov Mikhail Alekseevich;Hong Gi-Hoon
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • 제24권2호
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    • pp.147-152
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    • 2002
  • Seasonal and interannual variation of volume transport through the La-Perouse Strait were estimated using the difference of sea level observed at Krillion of Sakhalin, Russia, and Wakkanai of Hokkaido, Japan, during the period of 1975-1988. Historical sea level measurements between Russian and Japanese tide gauge data were normalized using an independent direct volume transport measurement. Volume transport from the East Sea (Sea of Japan) to the Sea of Okhotsk varied from -0.01 to 1.18 Sv with an annual mean value of 0.61 Sv. Monthly water transport rates showed a unimodal distribution with its maximum occurring in summer (August) and minimum in winter (December-February). The annual mean volume transport varied from 0.2 to 0.8 Sv during the period of 1975-1988 with the maximum variance of 0.6 Sv.

부산 기장 연안에서 저인망으로 어획된 어류 군집의 계절 변화 (Seasonal Variation of Species Composition of fish by Otter Trawl in the Coastal Waters off Gijang, Busan, Korea)

  • 황철희;박윤정
    • 한국수산과학회지
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    • 제50권4호
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    • pp.429-436
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    • 2017
  • The seasonal and interannual variations in fish assemblages in the coastal waters off Gijang were examined with an otter trawl from 2015 to 2016. A total of 59 fish species was collected during the study period. The dominant species were Caelorinchus multispinulosus, Clupea pallasii pallasii and Chelidonichthys spinosus. Seasonal changes in fish assemblages appeared to be distinct in the study area. The fish assemblages in summer and autumn were clearly distinguishable from those in other seasons, and the largest numbers of species and individuals were captured in winter and summer, respectively. Because fish assemblages are closely related to changes in water temperature, long-term changes in water temperature can have a significant impact on the productivity of offshore fisheries by changing fish species composition, habitat migration, and growth rate of fish.

대청호에서 장기간 수질변동 및 인위적 Enclosure 영양염 투여실험에 따른 제한 영양염류 평가 (Long-term Water Quality Fluctuations in Daechung Reservoir and the Limiting Nutrient Evaluations Using In Situ Enclosure Nutrient Enrichment Bioassays (NEBs))

  • 박향미;안광국
    • 한국물환경학회지
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    • 제28권4호
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    • pp.551-560
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    • 2012
  • The objectives of this study were to elucidate spatio-temporal heterogeneity of water chemistry and develop empirical models using trophic variables in Daechung Reservoir during 2005-2010 along with in situ tests of nutrient enrichment bioassays (NEB). The relations of water quality parameters in regard to precipitation showed that seasonal and interannual fluctuations of biological oxygen demand (BOD), total nitrogen (TN) and pH were minor, whereas conductivity, suspended solids (SS), and total phosphorus (TP) were largely varied in response to the magnitude of rainfall. The CHL maxima occurred immediately after the spate of TP during the high flow, indicating that phytoplankton growth was directly controlled by phosphorus. Empirical linear models of CHL-TP indicated that the variation of CHL in premonsoon was accounted 60% ($R^2$ = 0.60, p < 0.05, n = 54) by TP. In the mean time, empirical models of annual CHL-TN showed that the variation of CHL was weakly accounted ($R^2$ = 0.16, p < 0.001) by TN and more strongly ($R^2$ = 0.44, p < 0.001) by TP. Thus, the variation of CHL was more explained by the variation of TP than TN. In situ tests of Nutrient Enrichment Bioassays (NEBs) showed that the growth of CHL was greater in the P-treatments (as $PO_4-P$) than the control and N-treatment (as $NO_3-P$). Overall, our results suggest that phosphorus was aprimary limiting nutrient controlling the seasonal phytoplankton growth, based on the in situ experiments of NEBs.

중왕산 천연활엽수림에서 고로쇠나무 낙하종자량 및 종자활력의 연년변이 연구 (A Study on the Interannual Variation of Seedfall and Seed Viability of Acer pictum subsp. mono in Natural Broadleaved Forests at Mt. Jungwang)

  • 김회진;김갑태
    • 한국환경생태학회지
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    • 제29권4호
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    • pp.503-507
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    • 2015
  • 고로쇠나무의 낙하종자량과 종자활력의 연년변이와 그 원인을 밝혀보고자, 평창군 소재의 중왕산 천연활엽수림에서 종자트랩을 설치하여 낙하종자량과, 낙하종자의 활력을 6년(2009~2014)간 조사하였다. 2009년부터 2014년까지의 낙하종자량은 각각 55,700, 4,060, 60,900, 45,670, 403,450 ea/ha였으며, 2014년에는 310ea/ha로 평년에 비하여 매우 적은 양이었다. 2013년은 고로쇠나무 종자풍년(masting year)이었다고 판단된다. 종자활력 간 낙하종자량은 통계적 유의차가 인정되었다. 가장 많은 낙하종자는 피해 또는 부후된 종자이며 평균 47.88%였고, 다음으로 쭉정이 종자, 미발육 종자, 건전종자 순으로 낮아졌다. 건전종자는 6.7~31.0% 범위, 평균은 16.74%로 가장 낮았다. 종자풍년인 2013년에 건전종자는 평년(320~17,840ea/ha)보다 월등히 많은 125,070ea/ha이 숲바닥에 떨어졌다. 한편 피해 또는 부후종자의 비율이 38%로 가장 낮았으나, 종자립수는 153,310립/ha로 가장 많았다. 이러한 결과는 종자풍년에 천연갱신을 위한 충분한 건전종자가 공급됨을 암시하고, 포식자물림 가설(seed predator satiation hypothesis)을 지지한다고 사료된다. 연구가 미흡한 활엽수종의 종자생산에 대한 장기연구가 필요하다고 사료된다.

복합위성자료(Topex/Poseidon, Jason-1, ERS, Envisat)를 이용한 한반도 주변해역에서의 해수면 고도 변화와 해수면 온도의 상관성 연구 (Variation of the Sea Surface Height around the Korean Peninsula with the Use of Multi-satellite Data (Topex/Poseidon, Jason-1, ERS, Envisat) and its Association with Sea Surface Temperature)

  • 하경자;정기용;장새롬;김기영
    • 대한원격탐사학회지
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    • 제22권6호
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    • pp.519-531
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    • 2006
  • 한반도 주변해역에서의 해수면 고도는 1993년부터 2005년까지의 기간 동안 연평균 $3.89mm\;yr^{-1}$상승하였으며, 이는 전세계 해수면 상승률의 1.3배에 해당한다. 본 연구에서는 AVISO(Archiving, Validation and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic data)에서 제공하는 복합위성자료 (Topex/Poseidon, Jason-1, BRS, Envisat)인 DT-MSLA(Delayed Time-Maps of Sea Level Anomalies)를 이용하여 동해와 황해, 남해, 한국해협에서의 해수면 고도 변화를 연구하였다. 해수면 고도의 평균적인 변화는 증가하는 경향을 보임과 동시에, 여름에는 $4\sim5$년, 겨울에는 3년의 주기성을 가지고 진동하였다. 조화분석을 통하여 해수면 고도와 해수면 온도의 연주기 모드와 반년주기 모드의 진폭과 위상을 나타내었다. 해수면 고도의 연주기 진폭은 한반도 주변해역에서 남동쪽이 높게, 북서쪽이 낮게 나타나는 반면, 해수면 온도는 이와는 반대의 분포를 보였다. 월별 해수면 고도와 해수면 온도의 상관을 구한 결과, $6\sim8$월에 동해와 남해에서 1/2달 시간지연 일 때, 상관계수가 0.7정도로 높게 나타났다. 이러한 결과를 통해 여름철 동해와 남해가 쿠로시오 해류의 영향을 크게 받고 있음을 짐작할 수 있다.

지난 반세기 동안 남한에서 관측된 1월 최저기온의 연차변이 (The Observed Change in Interannual Variations of January Minimum Temperature between 1951-1980 and 1971-2000 in South Korea)

  • 정재은;정유란;윤진일;최동근
    • 한국농림기상학회지
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    • 제6권4호
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    • pp.235-241
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    • 2004
  • 1월의 최저기온을 대상으로 1951년부터 2000년까지 14개 지점의 관측자료를 분석한 결과 11개 지점에서 전반기(1951-1980)에 비해 후반기(1971-2000)의 연차 변이가 오히려 감소한 것으로 나타났다 표준편차로 표현할 경우 제주, 전주, 울릉도를 제외한 나머지 11개 지점에서 많게는 0.35(서울)에서 적게는 0.03(강릉)까지 고르게 연차변이가 감소하였다. 이는 최근의 난동화 경향과 함께 겨울철 최저기온의 연차변이가 더 심해지고 있다는 당초의 예상과 다른 결과이다 연차변이의 공간분포양상은 최저기온의 절대값과 정의 상관을, 관측점의 해발고도와는 부의 상관을 보였다. 이 관계를 이용하여 남한전역의 1월 최저기온 30년 표준 편차 분포도를 작성하였으며, 이를 토대로 재현기간별로 기대되는 전국의 극최저기온 분포도를 제작하여 지역별 동해위험 평가에 이용토록 하였다.

Study on effective band of advanced microwave scanning radiometer (AMSR) for observing first year sea ice in the Okhotsk Sea by airborne microwave radiometer (AMR)

  • Nakayama, Masashige;Nishio, Fumihiko;Tanikawa, Tomonori;Cho, Kohei;Shimoda, Haruhisa
    • 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한원격탐사학회 1999년도 Proceedings of International Symposium on Remote Sensing
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    • pp.456-461
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    • 1999
  • It is very important for monitoring the interannual variability of sea ice extents in the Okhotsk Sea because the global warming has firstly appeared around the Okhotsk Sea, locating around the southernmost region of sea ice cover in the Northern Hemisphere. In order to develop the sea ice concentration algorithm by microwave sensors onboard satellite, electromagnetic properties of sea ice in the Okhotsk Sea, therefore, were observed by airborne microwave radiometer (AMR), which has the same frequencies as AMSR (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer), ADEOS-II, launching on November, 2000. On this study, it is discussed how to make the image of AMR-EFOV and the video image with nadir angle under flight at the same time, and superimpose the brightness temperature data by AMR-EFOV on the video mosaiced images. For comparing SPOT image, it is clearly that the variation of brightness temperature is small in 89GHz V-pol without the sea ice types and increase at the lower frequency-band.

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