• 대기
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.123-130
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• 2014

계절예측시스템의 배경 지식이 부족한 사용자가 시스템을 효율적으로 구동하고 조절할 수 있도록 자동화에 최적화된 시스템을 기상청 국가태풍센터에 구축하였다. 기존 예측시스템에서 사용자의 주관이 포함되어 자동화 구축에 제약을 주는 군집분류와 예측인자 선정 과정은 미리 수행되고, 그 출력자료는 입력자료로서 제공된다. 시스템을 이해하고 운용하는데 도움을 주기 위해 기상청 규격에 따라 디렉토리 구조를 재구성하고, 해당 디렉토리에 포함되어 있는 입력자료와 소스코드를 이용해 산출되는 출력자료를 정리하였다. 또한 기존 예측시스템에서 고정되어 있거나 수동으로 설정해야 하는 구동조건을 효과적으로 조절하기 위해 네임리스트를 이용한 사용자인터페이스를 추가하여 자동화 시스템을 최적화하였다. 이러한 자동화 시스템에 의해 기술적으로 가능해진 조기예측의 성능을 검증한 결과, 예측시점을 5월에서 1월까지 앞당겨도 모든 진로유형에서 높은 예측성능이 유지되었다. 이처럼, 조기예측이 가능해진 태풍진로 계절예측시스템은 국가태풍센터의 현업예보뿐만 아니라 태풍계절예측 분야의 연구자에게도 매우 유익할 것으로 기대되고, 본 기술노트는 효율적인 예측시스템 운영을 위한 기술적 지침서로 활용될 것이다.

• 상하수도학회지
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• 제14권3호
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• pp.281-290
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• 2000

This study investigates the prediction of daily water supply, which is a necessary for the efficient management of water distribution system. ANFIS, namely artificial intelligence, is a neural network into which fuzzy information is inputted and then processed. In this study, daily water supply was predicted through an application of network-based fuzzy inference system(ANFIS) for daily water supply prediction. This study was investigated methods for predicting water supply based on data about the amount of water which supplied in Kwangju city. For variables choice, four analyses of input data were conducted: correlation analysis, autocorrelation analysis, partial autocorrelation analysis, and cross-correlation analysis. Input variables were (a) the amount of water supply, (b) the mean temperature, and (c) the population of the area supplied with water. Variables were combined in an integrated model. Data of the amount of daily water supply only was modelled and its validity was verified in the case that the meteorological office of weather forecast is not always reliable. Proposed models include accidental cases such as a suspension of water supply. The maximum error rate between the estimation of the model and the actual measurement was 18.46% and the average error was lower than 2.36%. The model is expected to be a real-time estimation of the operational control of water works and water/drain pipes.

• 대기
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• 제31권1호
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• pp.73-83
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• 2021

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models play an essential role in predicting weather factors, but using them is challenging due to various factors. To overcome the difficulties of NWP models, deep learning models have been deployed in weather forecasting by several recent studies. This study adapts long short-term memory (LSTM), which demonstrates remarkable performance in time-series prediction. The combination of LSTM model input of meteorological features and activation functions have a significant impact on the performance therefore, the results from 5 combinations of input features and 4 activation functions are analyzed in 9 Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) stations corresponding to cities/islands/mountains. The optimized LSTM model produces better performance within eight forecast hours than Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System (LDAPS) operated by Korean meteorological administration. Therefore, this study illustrates that this LSTM model can be usefully applied to very short-term weather forecasting, and further studies about CNN-LSTM model with 2-D spatial convolution neural network (CNN) coupled in LSTM are required for improvement.

• 한국해양공학회지
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• 제36권5호
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• pp.295-302
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• 2022

The initial response to a marine accident can play a key role to minimize the accident. Therefore, various decision support systems have been developed using sensors, simulations, and active response equipment. In this study, we developed an algorithm to predict damage locations using ship motion data with bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM), a type of recurrent neural network. To reflect the low frequency ship motion characteristics, 200 time-series data collected for 100 s were considered as input values. Heave, roll, and pitch were used as features for the prediction model. The F1-score of the BiLSTM model was 0.92; this was an improvement over the F1-score of 0.90 of a prior model. Furthermore, 53 of 75 locations of damage had an F1-score above 0.90. The model predicted the damage location with high accuracy, allowing for a quick initial response even if the ship did not have flood sensors. The model can be used as input data with high accuracy for a real-time progressive flooding simulator on board.

• 한국지능정보시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지능정보시스템학회 1999년도 추계학술대회-지능형 정보기술과 미래조직 Information Technology and Future Organization
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• pp.365-373
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• 1999

Recently, numerous studies have demonstrated that artificial intelligence such as neural networks can be an alternative methodology for classification problems to which traditional statistical methods have long been applied. In building neural network model, the selection of independent and dependent variables should be approached with great care and should be treated as a model construction process. Irrespective of the efficiency of a learning procedure in terms of convergence, generalization and stability, the ultimate performance of the estimator will depend on the relevance of the selected input variables and the quality of the data used. Approaches developed in statistical methods such as correlation analysis and stepwise selection method are often very useful. These methods, however, may not be the optimal ones for the development of neural network models. In this paper, we propose a genetic algorithms approach to find an optimal or near optimal input variables for neural network modeling. The proposed approach is demonstrated by applications to bankruptcy prediction modeling. Our experimental results show that this approach increases overall classification accuracy rate significantly.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제54권2호
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• pp.608-616
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• 2022

Power peaking factors (PPF) is an important parameter for safe and efficient reactor operation. There are several methods to calculate the PPF at TRIGA research reactors such as MCNP and TRIGLAV codes. However, these methods are time-consuming and required high specifications of a computer system. To overcome these limitations, artificial intelligence was introduced for parameter prediction. Previous studies applied the neural network method to predict the PPF, but the publications using the ANFIS method are not well developed yet. In this paper, the prediction of PPF using the ANFIS was conducted. Two input variables, control rod position, and neutron flux were collected while the PPF was calculated using TRIGLAV code as the data output. These input-output datasets were used for ANFIS model generation, training, and testing. In this study, four ANFIS model with two types of input space partitioning methods shows good predictive performances with R² values in the range of 96%-97%, reveals the strong relationship between the predicted and actual PPF values. The RMSE calculated also near zero. From this statistical analysis, it is proven that the ANFIS could predict the PPF accurately and can be used as an alternative method to develop a real-time monitoring system at TRIGA research reactors.

• 한국지능정보시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지능정보시스템학회 2001년도 The Pacific Aisan Confrence On Intelligent Systems 2001
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• pp.122-127
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• 2001

This study investigates the effectiveness of time delay neural networks(TDNN) for the time dependent prediction domain. Although it is well-known fact that the back-propagation neural network(BPN) performs well in pattern recognition tasks, the method has some limitations in that it can only learn an input mapping of static (or spatial) patterns that are independent of time of sequences. The preliminary results show that the accuracy of TDNN is higher than the standard BPN with time lag. Our proposed approaches are demonstrated by the stork market prediction domain.

• 한국멀티미디어학회논문지
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• 제12권9호
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• pp.1242-1251
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• 2009

유비쿼터스 환경에서 데이터 스트림 관리 시스템(Data Stream Management System: DSMS)은 수많은 센서로부터 생성되는 대량의 데이터 스트림을 처리한다. 기존의 시스템은 처리 능력 이상의 데이터 스트림이 입력되면 데이터의 일부를 제거하여 적정 부하를 유지하는 부하 제한 기법(Load Shedding)을 사용한다. 부하 제한 기법은 입력되는 데이터의 일부를 의도적으로 손실하여 데이터 완전도(Data Completeness)가 감소하기 때문에 처리 결과의 신뢰도 또한 감소한다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 시스템 처리 능력 이상의 데이터 스트림 입력 시 데이터 완전도 보장을 위한 과부하 예측 부하 분산 기법을 제안한다. 제안 기법은 데이터 손실이 예상되는 부하 시점을 미리 예측하고 예측된 부하 시점에 도달 시 부하를 분산하여 데이터 손실을 감소시킨다. 본 논문에서는 기존의 부하 제한 기법과의 비교 실험을 통해 제안 기법의 성능을 평가한다.

• 디지털융복합연구
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• 제18권11호
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• pp.241-246
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• 2020

본 논문에서는 해양 전기추진 시스템과 딥러닝 알고리즘을 융합하여 전기추진 리제너레이션 시스템에서 DC/DC 컨버터 출력 전류 예측 및 리제너레이션 수행 시 배터리 충전량을 예측하기 위해 신경망 모델을 제안한다. 제안 된 신경망을 실험하기 위해 PCM의 입력 전압과 전류를 측정하고 시제품 PCM 보드의 출력 결과를 통해 데이터 세트를 구성하였다. 또한 불충분 한 데이터 세트에서 학습 결과를 향상시키기 위해 기존 데이터 세트를 데이터 피팅하여 학습을 진행하였다. 학습 후 신경망 모델의 데이터 예측 결과와 실제 측정 데이터의 차이를 그래프를 통해 확인하였다. 제안한 신경망 모델은 입력 전압과 전류 변화에 따른 배터리 충전량 예측을 효율적으로 보여주었다. 또한, DC/DC 컨버터를 구성하는 아날로그 회로의 특성변화를 신경망을 통하여 예측함으로써, 리제너레이션 시스템의 설계 시, 아날로그 회로의 특성을 고려해야 할 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국CDE학회논문집
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• 제2권2호
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• pp.77-84
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• 1997

This paper is concerning the development of multiple neural networks system of problem domains where the complete input space can be decomposed into several different regions, and these are known prior to training neural networks. We will adopt oblique decision tree to represent the divided input space and sel ect an appropriate subnetworks, each of which is trained over a different region of input space. The overall architecture of multiple neural networks system, called the federated architecture, consists of a facilitator, normal subnetworks, and tile networks. The role of a facilitator is to choose the subnetwork that is suitable for the given input data using information obtained from decision tree. However, if input data is close enough to the boundaries of regions, there is a large possibility of selecting the invalid subnetwork due to the incorrect prediction of decision tree. When such a situation is encountered, the facilitator selects a tile network that is trained closely to the boundaries of partitioned input space, instead of a normal subnetwork. In this way, it is possible to reduce the large error of neural networks at zones close to borders of regions. The validation of our approach is examined and verified by applying the federated neural networks system to the configuration design of a midship structure.