• Title/Summary/Keyword: innovation estimates

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An Estimation on Demand of Telephone Service in Major Cities of Korea (우리나라 지역별 전화서비스 수요의 추정 - 주택용 전화서비스 수요를 중심으로 -)

  • 최동수
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.1 no.3
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    • pp.374-385
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    • 1998
  • This study is estimates telephone service demand based on empirical studies of telecommunication service demand model. First, the telephone charge(call price index) by each location and subscription fee bring about a negative effect to telephone distribution rate: while the other explanatory variables bring about a positive effect. Second, the flexibility of telephone charge in A location(relevant location) and the flexibility between the distance of A location and B location are negative values, while the flexibility of other explanatory variables is represented in a positive value. This means that the long distance call numbers from A location to B location are in inverse proportion against the phone charge(call price index) of A location and against the distance between A location and the distance of other locations except A location, while they are in direct proportion with an average call number per minute from A location to other locations except A location, and also with subscription numbers of A location, other subscribers in locations other than A location, and the total expenditures of A location.

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Identification of Noise Covariance by using Innovation Correlation Test (이노베이션 상관관계 테스트를 이용한 잡음인식)

  • Park, Seong-Wook
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1992.07a
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    • pp.305-307
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    • 1992
  • This paper presents a technique, which identifies both process noise covariance and sensor noise covariance by using innovation correlation test. A correlation test, which checks whether the square root Kalman filter is workingly optimal or not, is given. The system is stochastic autoregressive moving-average model with auxiliary white noise Input. The linear quadratic Gaussian control is used for minimizing stochastic cost function. This paper indentifies Q, R, and estimates parametric matrics $A(q^{-1}),B(q^{-1}),C(q^{-1})$ by means of extended recursive least squares and model reference control. And The proposed technique has been validated in simulation results on the fourth order system.

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R&D Intensity and Market Structure (R&D집약도와 시장구조)

  • Kim, Byung-Woo
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.97-109
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    • 2004
  • According to "structure-conduct-performance" paradigm in IO, market structure (concentration) determines conduct (R&D investments), and conduct yields market performance (ratio of price to marginal cost). Previous empirical studies on Schumpeter Mark I, II assumed that the explanatory variable (market structure) and the disturbance are uncorrelated in the R&D equation. In this situation, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimates of the structural parameters are inconsistent, because the endogeneous variables (R&D and market structure) can be determined simultaneously. So, in this study, full information (or system methods) estimation is used to test Schumpeter hypothesis since joint estimation can as well bring efficiency gains in the seemingly uncorrelated regressions (SUR) setting.

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Forecasting the Diffusion of Innovative Products Using the Bass Model at the Takeoff Stage: A Review of Literature from Subsistence Markets

  • Mitra, Suddhachit
    • Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.141-161
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    • 2019
  • A considerable amount of research has been directed at subsistence markets in the recent past with the belief that these markets can be tapped profitably by marketers. Consequently, such markets have seen the launch of a number of innovative products. However, marketers of such forecasts need timely and accurate forecasts regarding the diffusion of their products. The Bass model has been widely used in marketing management to forecast diffusion of innovative products. Given the idiosyncrasies of subsistence markets, such forecasting requires an understanding of effective estimation techniques of the Bass model and their use in subsistence markets. This article reviews the literature to achieve this objective and find out gaps in research. A finding is that there is a lack of timely estimates of Bass model parameters for marketers to act on. Consequently, this article sets a research agenda that calls for timely forecasts at the takeoff stage using appropriate estimation techniques for the Bass model in the context of subsistence markets.

Mobile Robot Navigation in an Indoor Environment

  • Choi, Sung-Yug;Lee, Jang-Myung
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2005.06a
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    • pp.1456-1459
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    • 2005
  • To compensate the drawbacks, a new localization method that estimates the global position of the mobile robot by using a camera set on ceiling in the corridor is proposed. This scheme is not a relative localization, which decreases the position error through algorithms with noisy sensor data. The effectiveness of the proposed localization scheme is demonstrated by the experiments.

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INNOVATION ALGORITHM IN ARMA PROCESS

  • Sreenivasan, M.;Sumathi, K.
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.373-382
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    • 1998
  • Most of the works in Time Series Analysis are based on the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models presented by Box and Jeckins(1976). If the data exhibits no ap-parent deviation from stationarity and if it has rapidly decreasing autocorrelation function then a suitable ARIMA(p,q) model is fit to the given data. Selection of the orders of p and q is one of the crucial steps in Time Series Analysis. Most of the methods to determine p and q are based on the autocorrelation function and partial autocor-relation function as suggested by Box and Jenkins (1976). many new techniques have emerged in the literature and it is found that most of them are over very little use in determining the orders of p and q when both of them are non-zero. The Durbin-Levinson algorithm and Innovation algorithm (Brockwell and Davis 1987) are used as recur-sive methods for computing best linear predictors in an ARMA(p,q)model. These algorithms are modified to yield an effective method for ARMA model identification so that the values of order p and q can be determined from them. The new method is developed and its validity and usefulness is illustrated by many theoretical examples. This method can also be applied to an real world data.

사업 포트폴리오의 기술시너지 효과 : 50대 재벌의 패널자료분석

  • 김태유;박경민
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.15-43
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    • 1997
  • This paper investigates empirically the relationship between various business portfolio properties (particularly technological properties) and chaebol's performance using data on the 50largest chaebols in Korea. In addition to the traditional indexes to measure diversification such as entropy index, we calculated inter-industry technological similarity using R'||'&'||'D expenditure data by industry and 1990 Input-output Table in korea, and obtained chaebol-level technological relatedness and internal transaction proportion from chaebols' business profile, inter-inustry technological similarity and 1990 input-output table. We applied factor analysis on 13 business portfolio property indexes and showed that they could be grouped into 3 dimensions. diversification scope, inter-business relatedness and degree of vertical integration. In this paper, using 50 largest chaebols' financial data (1989-1994), we analyzed empirically the effect of business portfolio properties on ROS(Return On Sales) which is conventional index for firm performance and on TFP(Total Factor Productivity) growth which is a pure measure of firm performance. To utilize the advantage of panel data, FEM(Fixed Effect Model) and REM(Random Effect Model) were used. The empirical result shows that the entropy index as a measurement of inter-business relatedness in not significant but technological relatedness index is significant. OLS estimates on pooled data were considerably different from FEM or REM estimates on panel data. By introducing interaction effect among the three variables for business portfolio properties, we obtained three findings. First, only VI(Vertical integration) has a significant positive correlation with ROS. Second, when using TFP growth as an dependent variable, both TR(Technological Relatedness) and VI are significant and positively related to the dependent variable. Third, the interaction term between TR and VI is significant and negatively affects TFP growth, meaning that TR and VI are substitutes. These results suggest strategic directions on restructuring business portfolio. As VI is increased, chaebols will get more profit. A higher level of either TR or VI will increase TFP growth rate, but increase in both TR and VI will have a negative effect on TFP growth. To summarize, certain business portfolio properties such as VI and TR can be considered "resources" themselves since they can affect profit rate and productivity growth. VI and TR have a synergy effect of change in profit rate and productivity growth. VI increases ROS and productivity growth, while TR increases productivity growth representing a technological synergy effect.t.

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Attack-Resistant Received Signal Strength based Compressive Sensing Wireless Localization

  • Yan, Jun;Yu, Kegen;Cao, Yangqin;Chen, Liang
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.11 no.9
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    • pp.4418-4437
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    • 2017
  • In this paper a three-phase secure compressive sensing (CS) and received signal strength (RSS) based target localization approach is proposed to mitigate the effect of malicious node attack. RSS measurements are first arranged into a group of subsets where the same measurement can be included in multiple subsets. Intermediate target position estimates are then produced using individual subsets of RSS measurements and the CS technique. From the intermediate position estimates, the residual error vector and residual error square vector are formed. The least median of residual error square is utilized to define a verifier parameter. The selected residual error vector is utilized along with a threshold to determine whether a node or measurement is under attack. The final target positions are estimated by using only the attack-free measurements and the CS technique. Further, theoretical analysis is performed for parameter selection and computational complexity evaluation. Extensive simulation studies are carried out to demonstrate the advantage of the proposed CS-based secure localization approach over the existing algorithms.

A Hybrid Technological Forecasting Model by Identifying the Efficient DMUs: An Application to the Main Battle Tank (효율적 DMU 선별을 통한 개선된 기술수준예측 방법: 주력전차 적용을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Jae-Oh;Kim, Jae-Hee;Kim, Sheung-Kown
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.83-102
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    • 2007
  • This study extends the existing method of Technology Forecasting with Data Envelopment Analysis (TFDEA) by incorporating a ranking method into the model so that we can reduce the required number of DMUs (Decision Making Units). TFDEA estimates technological rate of change with the set of observations identified by DEA(Data Envelopment Analysis) model. It uses an excessive number of efficient DMUs(Decision Making Units), when the number of inputs and outputs is large compare to the number of observations. Hence, we investigated the possibility of incorporating CCCA(Constrained Canonical Correlation Analysis) into TFDEA so that the ranking of DMUs can be made. Using the ranks developed by CCCA(Constrained Canonical Correlation Analysis), we could limit the number of efficient DMUs that are to be used in the technology forecasting process. The proposed hybrid model could establish technology frontiers with the efficient DMUs for each generation of technology with the help of CCCA that uses the common weights. We applied our hybrid model to forecast the technological progress of main battle tank in order to demonstrate its forecasting capability with practical application. It was found that our hybrid model generated statistically more reliable forecasting results than both TFDEA and the regression model.

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The Effect of Drug Vintage on Mortality : Economic Effect of New Drug (약의 허가시점분포가 사망률에 매치는 영향 : 신약의 거시경제적 효과)

  • Jung, Kee-Taig;Kim, Jeong-Yoon;Lichtenberg, Frank
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.147-168
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    • 2006
  • Technological innovation has been regarded as the core competence for the economic growth of individual, as well as organization and country. Pharmaceutical innovation, what we call new medicines, influence people's longevity and productivity by increasing output per hour worked. Therefore, using claims data on virtually all the drugs and diseases of over 550,000 people enrolled in National Health Insurance Program in Korea, we examined the impact of the vintage (original FDA and KFDA approval year) of drugs used to treat a patients from July 1st to December 31st in 2002 on the patient's mortality at the end of 2004, controlling for demographic characteristics(age and sex), utilization of medical services, and the nature and complexity of illness. We found that people using newer drugs are less likely to die at the end of 2004, conditional on covariates. The estimated mortality rates were declining with respect to drug vintage for 1970s, 1980s and 1990s and highly significant. In addition to estimating the model for the entire sample, we estimated the model separately for several disease categories classified by Korean Classification of Disease. Estimates of three drug vintage variables for subgroups of people with (1)neoplasms, (2)endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases, and (3)the diseases of circulatory system displayed similar patterns.