• Title/Summary/Keyword: inflation

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A Study on Foreign Exchange Rate Prediction Based on KTB, IRS and CCS Rates: Empirical Evidence from the Use of Artificial Intelligence (국고채, 금리 스왑 그리고 통화 스왑 가격에 기반한 외환시장 환율예측 연구: 인공지능 활용의 실증적 증거)

  • Lim, Hyun Wook;Jeong, Seung Hwan;Lee, Hee Soo;Oh, Kyong Joo
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.71-85
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to find out which artificial intelligence methodology is most suitable for creating a foreign exchange rate prediction model using the indicators of bond market and interest rate market. KTBs and MSBs, which are representative products of the Korea bond market, are sold on a large scale when a risk aversion occurs, and in such cases, the USD/KRW exchange rate often rises. When USD liquidity problems occur in the onshore Korean market, the KRW Cross-Currency Swap price in the interest rate market falls, then it plays as a signal to buy USD/KRW in the foreign exchange market. Considering that the price and movement of products traded in the bond market and interest rate market directly or indirectly affect the foreign exchange market, it may be regarded that there is a close and complementary relationship among the three markets. There have been studies that reveal the relationship and correlation between the bond market, interest rate market, and foreign exchange market, but many exchange rate prediction studies in the past have mainly focused on studies based on macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, current account surplus/deficit, and inflation while active research to predict the exchange rate of the foreign exchange market using artificial intelligence based on the bond market and interest rate market indicators has not been conducted yet. This study uses the bond market and interest rate market indicator, runs artificial neural network suitable for nonlinear data analysis, logistic regression suitable for linear data analysis, and decision tree suitable for nonlinear & linear data analysis, and proves that the artificial neural network is the most suitable methodology for predicting the foreign exchange rates which are nonlinear and times series data. Beyond revealing the simple correlation between the bond market, interest rate market, and foreign exchange market, capturing the trading signals between the three markets to reveal the active correlation and prove the mutual organic movement is not only to provide foreign exchange market traders with a new trading model but also to be expected to contribute to increasing the efficiency and the knowledge management of the entire financial market.

The Interpretaion of the Fairy Tale <The Frog King or Iron Heinrich> in Light of Jungian Psychology : The Unification of Opposites in the Fairytale (민담 <개구리 왕 혹은 충직한 하인리히>의 융심리학적 해석 : 민담에 나타난 대극의 합일)

  • Boseop Lee
    • Sim-seong Yeon-gu
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.55-86
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    • 2021
  • The initial situation in our tale shows that the earth-mother-feminine principle disappeared from the center of the collective consciousness into the collective unconscious. Therefore the heaven-father-masculine principle is dominant, which is represented by the king. And in the king's daughter, who is living without mother, the positive father complex is working. She stays in the heaven-spirit world playing with the golden ball, which can be seen as the state of inflation. She is disconnected from the earth-mother-feminine principle, which is important for a woman to find her genuine feminine identity. This demanded principle approaches her through the frog, a bewitched prince. Psychologically it means that a man is under the power of the negative mother complex. The disgusting, ugly frog is a symbol for the shadow, the earthly animal instincts of the princess. Only with his help she can find her golden ball again, which has fallen into the deep well. Their talk about the rewards to him for his help shows us very well the opposites. The frog wants the feminine value such as relation, earthly eros, but the princess offers the masculine value such as heavenly logos. After the frog brought her the lost ball, i.e. she regained her libido, she completely forgot her promise. Like this the content, which is becoming conscious, here the shadow, is easy to fall back into the unconscious and to be repressed. The frog cannot be with the princess without the help of the king, a father figure, a firm protector of the collective oder. At first unwillingly the princess obeys Logos of her father. But her authentic instinctual urge grows stronger and it causes that her ego is released from the power of her father complex. At just this moment the frog turns into a prince, i.e. he is liberated from the mother complex. The marriage of princess and frog-prince symbolize the unification of the opposites: heaven becomes earthly and earth becomes heavenly. Three iron bands, wrapped around the heart of Heinrich, a young king's servant, are snapped, while he brings the prince and princess back to his kingdom. The heart, the place of earth-mother-feminine consciousness, is now liberated. This principle, which disappeared into the unconscious, emerged into the collective consciousness and the wholeness is recovered. The Self is now leading the collective consciousness, which includes not only the principle of Logos but also Eros.

A Study on Effect of Psychological Capital on Turnover Intention & Mediating Effect of Organizational Commitment: Focusing on Construction Industry Workers (심리적 자본이 이직의도에 미치는 영향과 조직몰입의 매개효과에 대한 연구 : 건설업 종사자를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Su-jin
    • Journal of Venture Innovation
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.151-166
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    • 2024
  • The global economic growth rate has been slowed due to changes in the economic and social environment related to the recent trends in the construction market and construction industry, prolonged inflation, intense tensions among countries, and increased interest rates. Since the workers in the construction industry, due to the nature of the industry, move to another site after the completion of an awarded project rather than staying for a long time while performing work at one workplace, various issues are brought out such as poor working environment resulting from unfairness in construction contracts, aging of workers, their anxiety, and job instability. The previous studies on the turnover intention of construction industry workers mainly dealt with external aspects such as leadership, job embeddedness, and organizational citizenship behavior, while the psychological impact was overlooked. The purpose of this study was to develop a measure to reduce or alleviate turnover intention of construction industry workers by verifying empirically the relationship among psychological capital, organizational commitment, and turnover intention among them. For the purpose, whether psychological capital influences organizational commitment and turnover intention, the impact of organizational commitment on turnover intention, and whether organizational commitment has a mediating effect in the relationship between psychological capital and turnover intention, among 310 construction industry workers in the metropolitan area. The results are as follows: First, hope and self-efficacy were found to have a negative (-) effect on turnover intention, while resilience and optimism from psychological capital did not have a significant effect. Second, hope, resilience, and optimism from psychological capital were found to have a positive (+) effect on organizational commitment, while self-efficacy from psychological capital had no significant effect. Third, organizational commitment was found to have a significant mediating effect on the relationship between hope from psychological capital and turnover intention. The results of this study showed that, in construction industry workers, psychological capital affects turnover intention through the mediating effect of organizational commitment. While previous studies mainly considered external influences on the turnover intention of construction industry workers, this study has academic implications in that it sought to strengthen organizational commitment and alleviate turnover intention by approaching psychological aspects. As a practical implication, it was found that higher self-efficacy and hope for work in the organization, from psychological capital, in the construction industry workers were found to lower turnover intention through job performance in a psychologically stable state. It is considered, therefore, that various systems, including job autonomy and flexible work, should be established to improve self-efficacy and hope.

The Relations between Financial Constraints and Dividend Smoothing of Innovative Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (혁신형 중소기업의 재무적 제약과 배당스무딩간의 관계)

  • Shin, Min-Shik;Kim, Soo-Eun
    • Korean small business review
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.67-93
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this paper is to explore the relations between financial constraints and dividend smoothing of innovative small and medium sized enterprises(SMEs) listed on Korea Securities Market and Kosdaq Market of Korea Exchange. The innovative SMEs is defined as the firms with high level of R&D intensity which is measured by (R&D investment/total sales) ratio, according to Chauvin and Hirschey (1993). The R&D investment plays an important role as the innovative driver that can increase the future growth opportunity and profitability of the firms. Therefore, the R&D investment have large, positive, and consistent influences on the market value of the firm. In this point of view, we expect that the innovative SMEs can adjust dividend payment faster than the noninnovative SMEs, on the ground of their future growth opportunity and profitability. And also, we expect that the financial unconstrained firms can adjust dividend payment faster than the financial constrained firms, on the ground of their financing ability of investment funds through the market accessibility. Aivazian et al.(2006) exert that the financial unconstrained firms with the high accessibility to capital market can adjust dividend payment faster than the financial constrained firms. We collect the sample firms among the total SMEs listed on Korea Securities Market and Kosdaq Market of Korea Exchange during the periods from January 1999 to December 2007 from the KIS Value Library database. The total number of firm-year observations of the total sample firms throughout the entire period is 5,544, the number of firm-year observations of the dividend firms is 2,919, and the number of firm-year observations of the non-dividend firms is 2,625. About 53%(or 2,919) of these total 5,544 observations involve firms that make a dividend payment. The dividend firms are divided into two groups according to the R&D intensity, such as the innovative SMEs with larger than median of R&D intensity and the noninnovative SMEs with smaller than median of R&D intensity. The number of firm-year observations of the innovative SMEs is 1,506, and the number of firm-year observations of the noninnovative SMEs is 1,413. Furthermore, the innovative SMEs are divided into two groups according to level of financial constraints, such as the financial unconstrained firms and the financial constrained firms. The number of firm-year observations of the former is 894, and the number of firm-year observations of the latter is 612. Although all available firm-year observations of the dividend firms are collected, deletions are made in the case of financial industries such as banks, securities company, insurance company, and other financial services company, because their capital structure and business style are widely different from the general manufacturing firms. The stock repurchase was involved in dividend payment because Grullon and Michaely (2002) examined the substitution hypothesis between dividends and stock repurchases. However, our data structure is an unbalanced panel data since there is no requirement that the firm-year observations data are all available for each firms during the entire periods from January 1999 to December 2007 from the KIS Value Library database. We firstly estimate the classic Lintner(1956) dividend adjustment model, where the decision to smooth dividend or to adopt a residual dividend policy depends on financial constraints measured by market accessibility. Lintner model indicates that firms maintain stable and long run target payout ratio, and that firms adjust partially the gap between current payout rato and target payout ratio each year. In the Lintner model, dependent variable is the current dividend per share(DPSt), and independent variables are the past dividend per share(DPSt-1) and the current earnings per share(EPSt). We hypothesized that firms adjust partially the gap between the current dividend per share(DPSt) and the target payout ratio(Ω) each year, when the past dividend per share(DPSt-1) deviate from the target payout ratio(Ω). We secondly estimate the expansion model that extend the Lintner model by including the determinants suggested by the major theories of dividend, namely, residual dividend theory, dividend signaling theory, agency theory, catering theory, and transactions cost theory. In the expansion model, dependent variable is the current dividend per share(DPSt), explanatory variables are the past dividend per share(DPSt-1) and the current earnings per share(EPSt), and control variables are the current capital expenditure ratio(CEAt), the current leverage ratio(LEVt), the current operating return on assets(ROAt), the current business risk(RISKt), the current trading volume turnover ratio(TURNt), and the current dividend premium(DPREMt). In these control variables, CEAt, LEVt, and ROAt are the determinants suggested by the residual dividend theory and the agency theory, ROAt and RISKt are the determinants suggested by the dividend signaling theory, TURNt is the determinant suggested by the transactions cost theory, and DPREMt is the determinant suggested by the catering theory. Furthermore, we thirdly estimate the Lintner model and the expansion model by using the panel data of the financial unconstrained firms and the financial constrained firms, that are divided into two groups according to level of financial constraints. We expect that the financial unconstrained firms can adjust dividend payment faster than the financial constrained firms, because the former can finance more easily the investment funds through the market accessibility than the latter. We analyzed descriptive statistics such as mean, standard deviation, and median to delete the outliers from the panel data, conducted one way analysis of variance to check up the industry-specfic effects, and conducted difference test of firms characteristic variables between innovative SMEs and noninnovative SMEs as well as difference test of firms characteristic variables between financial unconstrained firms and financial constrained firms. We also conducted the correlation analysis and the variance inflation factors analysis to detect any multicollinearity among the independent variables. Both of the correlation coefficients and the variance inflation factors are roughly low to the extent that may be ignored the multicollinearity among the independent variables. Furthermore, we estimate both of the Lintner model and the expansion model using the panel regression analysis. We firstly test the time-specific effects and the firm-specific effects may be involved in our panel data through the Lagrange multiplier test that was proposed by Breusch and Pagan(1980), and secondly conduct Hausman test to prove that fixed effect model is fitter with our panel data than the random effect model. The main results of this study can be summarized as follows. The determinants suggested by the major theories of dividend, namely, residual dividend theory, dividend signaling theory, agency theory, catering theory, and transactions cost theory explain significantly the dividend policy of the innovative SMEs. Lintner model indicates that firms maintain stable and long run target payout ratio, and that firms adjust partially the gap between the current payout ratio and the target payout ratio each year. In the core variables of Lintner model, the past dividend per share has more effects to dividend smoothing than the current earnings per share. These results suggest that the innovative SMEs maintain stable and long run dividend policy which sustains the past dividend per share level without corporate special reasons. The main results show that dividend adjustment speed of the innovative SMEs is faster than that of the noninnovative SMEs. This means that the innovative SMEs with high level of R&D intensity can adjust dividend payment faster than the noninnovative SMEs, on the ground of their future growth opportunity and profitability. The other main results show that dividend adjustment speed of the financial unconstrained SMEs is faster than that of the financial constrained SMEs. This means that the financial unconstrained firms with high accessibility to capital market can adjust dividend payment faster than the financial constrained firms, on the ground of their financing ability of investment funds through the market accessibility. Futhermore, the other additional results show that dividend adjustment speed of the innovative SMEs classified by the Small and Medium Business Administration is faster than that of the unclassified SMEs. They are linked with various financial policies and services such as credit guaranteed service, policy fund for SMEs, venture investment fund, insurance program, and so on. In conclusion, the past dividend per share and the current earnings per share suggested by the Lintner model explain mainly dividend adjustment speed of the innovative SMEs, and also the financial constraints explain partially. Therefore, if managers can properly understand of the relations between financial constraints and dividend smoothing of innovative SMEs, they can maintain stable and long run dividend policy of the innovative SMEs through dividend smoothing. These are encouraging results for Korea government, that is, the Small and Medium Business Administration as it has implemented many policies to commit to the innovative SMEs. This paper may have a few limitations because it may be only early study about the relations between financial constraints and dividend smoothing of the innovative SMEs. Specifically, this paper may not adequately capture all of the subtle features of the innovative SMEs and the financial unconstrained SMEs. Therefore, we think that it is necessary to expand sample firms and control variables, and use more elaborate analysis methods in the future studies.

Difference of Short Term Survival in Patients with ARDS According to Responsiveness to Alveolar Recruitment (급성호흡곤란증후군 환자에서 폐포모집술의 반응에 따른 초기 예후의 차이)

  • Kim, Ho Cheol;Cho, Dae Hyun;Kang, Gyoung Woo;Park, Dong Jun;Lee, Jong Deok;Hwang, Young Sil
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.56 no.3
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    • pp.280-288
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    • 2004
  • Background : Lung protective strategies, using low tidal volume in ARDS, improve survival rate in ARDS. However, low tidal volume ventilation may promote alveolar de-recruitment. Therefore, alveolar recruitment is necessary to maintain arterial oxygenation and to prevent repetitive opening and closure of collapsed alveoli in lung protective strategies. There has been a recent report describing improvement in arterial oxygenation with use of recruitment maneuver. However, impact of recruitment on outcome of ARDS is unknown. We evaluated whether short-term survival difference existed in patients with ARDS, who were performed alveolar recruitment maneuver(ARM) and prone position, according to response of alveolar recruitment or not. Methods : All patients who were diagnosed with ADRS and received mechanical ventilation were included. ARM were sustained inflation($35-45cmH_2O$ CPAP for 30-40 sec.) or increasing level of PEEP. If these methods were ineffective, alveolar recruitment with prone position was done for at least 10 hours. $P_aO_2/FiO_2$(P/F) ratio was determined before and at 0.5 and 2 hours after ARM. We defined a responder if the P/F ratio was increased over 50% of baseline value. We compared 10-days and 30-days survival rate between responders and non-responders. Results : 20 patients(M:F=12:8, $63{\pm}14age$) were included. Among them, 12 patients were responders and 8 patients were non-responders. In responders, P/F ratio was increased from $92{\pm}25mmHg$ to $244{\pm}85mmHg$. In non-responders, P/F ratio increased from $138{\pm}37mmHg$ to $163{\pm}60mmHg$. Among non-responders, P/F ratio was improved over 50% in 2 patients after prone position. Overall, 14 patients were responders after ARM and prone position. The 10-days and 30-days survival rate in responders was significantly higher than in non-responders(86%, 57% in responders and 33%, 0% in non-responders)(p<0.05). There was no significant difference between responders and non-responders in age($71{\pm}11$, $60{\pm}14$), lung injury score($2.8{\pm}0.2$, $2.9{\pm}0.45$), simplified acute physiology score(SAPS) II ($35{\pm}4.6$, $34{\pm}5.7$), positive end-positive pressure level($15.6{\pm}1.9cmH_2O$, $14.5{\pm}2.1cmH_2O$). Conclusion : ARM may improve arterial oxygenation in some patients with ARDS. These responders in patients with ARDS showed significant higher 10-days and 30-days survival rate than non-responders patients with alveolar recruitment.

Dreams of Admiral Yi Sun-sin (1545-1598) in Nanjung Ilgi (Diary in War Time) and Some Aspects of His Personality: From Jungian Viewpoint (≪난중일기≫에서 본 이순신의 꿈과 인격의 몇 가지 측면: 분석심리학적 입장에서)

  • Bou-Yong Rhi
    • Sim-seong Yeon-gu
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.99-148
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    • 2022
  • This study aims at the psychological elucidation of some conscious aspects of the personality of Yi Sun-sin (1545-1598), the Korean national hero, and the unconscious teleologic meanings of his dreams mentioned in Nanjung Ilgi (Diary in War Time) from the viewpoint of analytical psychology of C.G. Jung. Yi Sun-sin was a man of discipline, incorporated with the spirit of Confucian filial piety, hyo (hsiao) and royalty, chung. He was a stern man but with a warm heart. In his diary, Yi Sun-sin poured forth his feelings of suffering, despair, and extreme solicitude caused by slanders of his political opponents, his grief for the loss of mother and son, and his worries about the fate of his country, which the Japanese invaders now plundered. The moon night offered him the opportunity to touch with his inner soul, by reciting poems, playing Korean string, 'Keomungo', and flute. Further, he widened his scope by asking for the answers from the 'Heaven' through divination and dream. Yi Sun-sin's attitude toward his mother who raised the future hero and maternal principles were considered in concern with the Jungian term 'mother complex'. Won Gyun, Yi Sun-sin's rival admiral, who persistently accused Yi Sun-sin of 'slanders,' certainly represents the unconscious shadow image of Yi Sun-sin. The reciprocal 'shadow' projection has intervened in the conflicting relationship between Yi and Won. In concern to the argument for the suicidal death of Yi Sun-sin, the author found no evidence supporting such an argument, No trace of latent suicidal wish was found in his dreams. For Yi Sun-sin, the determination of the life and death depends on Heaven. 32 dreams from the diary and 3 from other historical references were reviewed and analyzed in the Jungian way. Symbols of anima, Self, and individuation process were found. His dream repeatedly suggests that Yi Sun-sin is an extraordinary man chosen by the divine man (神人). In the dream, Yi Sun-sin was a disciple of the divine man receiving instructions on various strategies, and he alone could see the great thing or events. The dream of a beautiful blue and red dragon, whom he was friendly touching, indicates Yi Sun-sin's eligibility for the kingship. Yi Sun-sin seemingly did not aware of this message of the unconscious. Perhaps he sensed something special but did not identify with 'the disciple of gods' and 'royal dragon' in his dream. His modest attitude toward the dream has prevented him from falling into ego inflation. There were warning signals in two dreams that suggested disorders in the dreamer's instinctive feminine drive. Spirits of the dead father and brothers appear in the dream, giving advice or mourning for the death of Sun-sin's mother. Though Yi Sun-sin was a genuine Confucian gentleman, a dream revealed his unconscious drive to destroy the Confucian authoritative 'Persona' by trampling down the cylindrical traditional Korean hat. To the dreams of synchronicity phenomena Yi Sun-sin immediately solves the problem in concrete reality. He understood dreams as valuable messages from the superior entity, for example, the Confucian Heaven (天) or Heaven's Decree (天命). Furthermore, the 'Heaven' presumably arranged for him the way to the national hero and imposed necessary trials upon him. Both his persecutors and advocates of him guided him in the way of a hero. Yi Sun-sin followed his destiny and completed the living myth of the hero. His mother, King Seon-jo, and prime minister Liu Seong Yong, all have contributed to embodying the myth of the hero. Yi Sun-sin died and became god, the divine healer of the nation.

A study on the improvement of distribution system by overseas agricultural investment (해외농업투자에 따른 유통체계 개선방안에 관한 연구)

  • Sun, Il-Suck;Lee, Dong-Ok
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.17-26
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    • 2010
  • Recently concerns have been raised due to the unbalanced supply of crops: the price of crops has been unstable and at one point the price went up so high that the word Agflation(agriculture+ inflation) was coined. Korea, in particular, is a small-sized country and needs to secure the stable supply of crops by investing in the produce importation at a national level. Investment in foreign produce importation is becoming more important as a measure for sufficient supply of crops, limited supply of domestic crops, weakened farming conditions worldwide, as well as recent changes in the use of crops due to the development of bio-fuels, influence of carbon emission on crops, the price increase in crops, and influx of foreign hot money. However, there are many problems with investing in foreign produce importation: lack of support from the government; lack of farming information and technology; difficulty in securing the capital; no immediate pay-off from the investment and insufficient management. Although foreign produce is originally more price-competitive than domestic produce, it loses its competiveness in the process of importation (due to high tariffs) and poor distribution system, which makes it difficult to sell in Korea. Therefore, investment in foreign produce importation is being questioned for feasibility; to make it possible, foreign produce must maintain the price-competitiveness. Especially, harvest of agricultural products depends on natural and geographical conditions of each country and those products have indigenous properties, so distribution system according to import and export of agricultural products should be treated more carefully than that of other industries. Distribution costs are differentiated into each item and include cost of sorting and wrapping, cost of wrapping materials, cost of domestic transport, cost of international transport and cost of clearing customs for import and export. So transporting and storing agricultural products generates considerable costs compared with other products. Also, due to upgrade of dietary life, needs for stability, taste and visible quality toward food including agricultural products are being raised and wrong way of storage causes decomposition of food and loss of freshness, making the storage more difficult than that in room temperature, so storage and transport in distribution of agricultural products needs specialty. In addition, because lack of specialty in distribution and circulation such as storage and wrapping does not solve limit factors in distance, the distribution and circulation has been limited to a form of import and export within short-distant region. Therefore, need for distribution out-sourcing which can satisfy specialty in managing distribution and circulation and it is needed to establish more effective distribution system. However, existing distribution system of agricultural products is exposed to various problems including problems in distribution channel, making distribution and strategy for distribution and those problems are as follows. First, in case of investment in overseas agricultural industry, stable supply of the products is difficult because areas of production are dispersed widely and influenced by outer factors due to including overseas distribution channels. Also, at the aspect of quality, standardization of products is difficult, distribution system is quite complicated and unreasonable due to long distribution channels according to international trade and financial and institutional support is not enough. Especially, there are quite a lot of ineffective factors including multi level distribution process, dramatic gap between production cost and customer's cost, lack of physical distribution facilities and difficulties in storage and transport due to lack of wrapping containers. Besides, because import and export of agricultural products has been manages under the company's own distribution according to transaction contract between manufacturers and exporting company, efficiency is low due to excessive investment in fixed costs and lack of specialty in dealing with agricultural products causes fall of value of products, showing the limit to lose price-competitiveness. Especially, because lack of specialty in distribution and circulation such as storage and wrapping does not solve limit factors in distance, the distribution and circulation has been limited to a form of import and export within short-distant region. Therefore, need for distribution out-sourcing which can satisfy specialty in managing distribution and circulation and it is needed to establish more effective distribution system. Second, among tangible and intangible services which promote the efficiency of the whole distribution, a function building distribution environment which includes distribution information, system for standard and inspection, distribution finance, system for diversification of risks, education and training, distribution administration and tax system is wanted. In general, such a function building distribution environment is difficult to be changed and supplement innovatively because its effect compared with investment does not appear immediately despite of its necessity. Especially, in case of distribution of agricultural products, as a function of collecting and distributing is performed individually through various channels, the importance of distribution information and standardization is getting more focus due to the problem of repetition of work and lack of specialty. Also, efficient management of distribution is quite difficult due to lack of professionals in distribution, so support to professional education is needed. Third, though effort to keep self-sufficiency ratio of staple food, rice is regarded as important at the government level, level of dependency on overseas of others crops is high. Therefore, plan for stable securing food resources aside from staple food is also necessary. Especially, governmental organizations of agricultural products distribution in Korea are production-centered and have unreasonable structure whose function at the aspect of distribution and consumption is quite insufficient. And development of new distribution channels which can deal with changes in distribution environment and they do not achieve actual results of strategy for distribution due to non-positive strategy for price distribution. That is, it implies the possibility that base for supply will become vulnerable because it does not mediate appropriate interests on total distribution channels such as manufacturers, wholesale dealers and vendors by emphasizing consumer protection excessively in the distribution of agricultural products. Therefore, this study examined fundamental concept and actual situation for our investment to overseas agriculture, drew necessities, considerations, problems, etc. of overseas agricultural investment and suggested improvements at the level of distribution for price competitiveness of agricultural products cultivated in overseas under five aspects; government's indirect support, distribution's modernization and distribution information function's strengthening, government's political support for distribution facility, transportation route, load and unloading works' improvement, price competitiveness' securing, professional manpower's cultivation by education and training, etc. Here are some suggestions for foreign produce importation. First, the government should conduct a survey on the current distribution channels and analyze the situation to establish a measure for long-term development plans. By providing each agricultural area with a guideline for planning appropriate production of crops, the government can help farmers be ready for importation, and prevent them from producing same crops all at the same time. Government can sign an MOU with the foreign government and promote the importation so that the development of agricultural resources can be stable and steady. Second, the government can establish a strategy for an effective distribution system by providing farmers and agriculture-related workers with the distribution information such as price, production, demand, market structure and location, feature of each crop, and etc. In order for such distribution system to become feasible, the government needs to reconstruct the current distribution system, designate a public organization for providing distribution information and set the criteria for level of produce quality, trade units, and package units. Third, the government should provide financial support and a policy to seek an efficient distribution channel for foreign produce to be delivered fresh: the government should expand distribution facilities (for selecting, packaging, storing, and processing) and transportation vehicles while modernizing old facilities. There should be another policy to improve the efficiency of unloading, and to lower the cost of distribution. Fourth, it is necessary to enact a new law covering exceptional cases for importing produce in order to maintain the price competitiveness; currently the high tariffs is keeping the imported produce from being distributed domestically. However, the new adjustment should be made carefully within the WTO regulations since it can create a problem from giving preferential tariffs. The government can also simplify the distribution channels in order to reduce the cost in the distribution process. Fifth, the government should educate distributors to raise the efficiency and to modernize the distribution system. It is necessary to develop human resources by educating people regarding the foreign agricultural environment, the produce quality, management skills, and by introducing some successful cases in advanced countries.

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Territorial Expansion the King Võ (Võ Vương, 1738-1765) in the Mekong Delta: Variation of Tám Thực Chi Kế (strategy of silkworm nibbling) and Dĩ Man Công Man (to strike barbarians by barbarians) in the Way to Build a New World Order (무왕(武王, 1738-1765) 시기 메콩 델타에서의 영토 확장 추이: 제국으로 가는 길, '잠식지계(蠶食之計)'와 '이만공만(以蠻攻蠻)'의 변주)

  • CHOI, Byung Wook
    • The Southeast Asian review
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.37-76
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    • 2017
  • $Nguy{\tilde{\hat{e}}}n$ Cư Trinh has two faces in the history of territorial expansion of Vietnam into the Mekong delta. One is his heroic contribution to the $Nguy{\tilde{\hat{e}}}n$ family gaining control over the large part of the Mekong delta. The other is his role to make the eyes of readers of Vietnamese history be fixed only to the present territory of Vietnam. To the readers, $Nguy{\tilde{\hat{e}}}n$ Cư Trinh's achievement of territorial expansion was the final stage of the nam $ti{\acute{\hat{e}}n$ of Vietnam. In fact, however, his achievement was partial. This study pays attention to the King $V{\tilde{o}}$ instead of $Nguy{\tilde{\hat{e}}}n$ Cư Trinh in the history of the territorial expansion in the Mekong delta. King's goal was more ambitious. And the ambition was propelled by his dream to build a new world, and its order, in which his new capital, $Ph{\acute{u}}$ $Xu{\hat{a}}n$ was to be the center with his status as an emperor. To improve my assertion, three elements were examined in this article. First is the nature of $V{\tilde{o}}$ Vương's new kingship. Second is the preparation and the background of the military operation in the Mekong Delta. The nature of the new territory is the third element of the discussion. In 1744, six years after this ascending to the throne, $V{\tilde{o}}$ Vương declared he was a king. Author points out this event as the departure of the southern kingdom from the traditional dynasties based on the Red River delta. Besides, the government system, northern custom and way of dressings were abandoned and new southern modes were adopted. $V{\tilde{o}}$ Vương had enough tributary kingdoms such as Cambodia, Champa, Thủy $X{\tilde{a}}$, Hoả $X{\tilde{a}}$, Vạn Tượng, and Nam Chưởng. Compared with the $L{\hat{e}}$ empire, the number of the tributary kingdoms was higher and the number was equivalent to that of the Đại Nam empire of the 19th century. In reality, author claims, the King $V{\tilde{o}}^{\prime}s$ real intention was to become an emperor. Though he failed in using the title of emperor, he distinguished himself by claiming himself as the Heaven King, $Thi{\hat{e}}n$ Vương. Cambodian king's attack on the thousands of Cham ethnics in Cambodian territory was an enough reason to the King $V{\tilde{o}}^{\prime}s$ military intervention. He considered these Cham men and women as his amicable subjects, and he saw them a branch of the Cham communities in his realm. He declared war against Cambodia in 1750. At the same time he sent a lengthy letter to the Siamese king claiming that the Cambodia was his exclusive tributary kingdom. Before he launched a fatal strike on the Mekong delta which had been the southern part of Cambodia, $V{\tilde{o}}$ Vương renovated his capital $Ph{\acute{u}}$ $Xu{\hat{a}}n$ to the level of the new center of power equivalent to that of empire for his sake. Inflation, famine, economic distortion were also the features of this time. But this study pays attention more to the active policy of the King $V{\tilde{o}}$ as an empire builder than to the economic situation that has been told as the main reason for King $V{\tilde{o}}^{\prime}s$ annexation of the large part of the Mekong delta. From the year of 1754, by the initiative of $Nguy{\tilde{\hat{e}}}n$ Cư Trinh, almost whole region of the Mekong delta within the current border line was incorporated into the territory of $V{\tilde{o}}$ Vương within three years, though the intention of the king was to extend his land to the right side of the Mekong Basin beyond the current border such as Kampong Cham, Prey Vieng, and Svai Rieng. The main reason was $V{\tilde{o}}$ Vương's need to expand his territory to be matched with that of his potential empire with the large number of the tributary kingdoms. King $V{\tilde{o}}^{\prime}s$ strategy was the variation of 'silkworm nibbling' and 'to strike barbarians by barbarians.' He ate the land of Lower Cambodia, the region of the Mekong delta step by step as silkworm nibbles mulberry leave(general meaning of $t{\acute{a}}m$ thực), but his final goal was to eat all(another meaning of $t{\acute{a}}m$ thực) the part of the Mekong delta including the three provinces of Cambodia mentioned above. He used Cham to strike Cambodian in the process of getting land from Long An area to $Ch{\hat{a}}u$ Đốc. This is a faithful application of the Dĩ Man $C{\hat{o}}ng$ Man (to strike barbarians by barbarians). In addition he used Chinese refugees led by the Mạc family or their quasi kingdom to gain land in the region of $H{\grave{a}}$ $Ti{\hat{e}}n$ and its environs from the hand of Cambodian king. This is another application of Dĩ Man $C{\hat{o}}ng$ Man. In sum, author claims a new way of looking at the origin of the imperial world order which emerged during the first half of the 19th century. It was not the result of the long history of Đại Việt empires based on the Red River delta, but the succession of the King $V{\tilde{o}}^{\prime}s$ new world based on $Ph{\acute{u}}$ $Xu{\hat{a}}n$. The same ways of Dĩ Man $C{\hat{o}}ng$ Man and $T{\acute{a}}m$ Thực Chi $K{\acute{\hat{e}}}$ were still used by $V{\tilde{o}}^{\prime}s$ descendents. His grandson Gia Long used man such as Thai, Khmer, Lao, Chinese, and European to win another man the '$T{\hat{a}}y$ Sơn bandits' that included many of Chinese pirates, Cham, and other mountain peoples. His great grand son Minh Mạng constructed a splendid empire. At the same time, however, Minh Mạng kept expanding the size of his empire by eating all the part of Cambodia and Cham territories.