• 제목/요약/키워드: incidence estimation

검색결과 123건 처리시간 0.024초

Lifetime Risk Assessment of Lung Cancer Incidence for Nonsmokers in Japan Considering the Joint Effect of Radiation and Smoking Based on the Life Span Study of Atomic Bomb Survivors

  • Shimada, Kazumasa;Kai, Michiaki
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • 제46권3호
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    • pp.83-97
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    • 2021
  • Background: The lifetime risk of lung cancer incidence due to radiation for nonsmokers is overestimated because of the use of the average cancer baseline risk among a mixed population, including smokers. In recent years, the generalized multiplicative (GM)-excess relative risk (ERR) model has been developed in the life span study of atomic bomb survivors to consider the joint effect of radiation and smoking. Based on this background, this paper discusses the issues of radiation risk assessment considering smoking in two parts. Materials and Methods: In Part 1, we proposed a simple method of estimating the baseline risk for nonsmokers using current smoking data. We performed sensitivity analysis on baseline risk estimation to discuss the birth cohort effects. In Part 2, we applied the GM-ERR model for Japanese smokers to calculate lifetime attributable risk (LAR). We also performed a sensitivity analysis using other ERR models (e.g., simple additive (SA)-ERR model). Results and Discussion: In Part 1, the lifetime baseline risk from mixed population including smokers to nonsmokers decreased by 54% (44%-60%) for males and 24% (18%-29%) for females. In Part 2, comparison of LAR between SA- and GM-ERR models showed that if the radiation dose was ≤200 mGy or less, the difference between these ERR models was within the standard deviation of LAR due to the uncertainty of smoking information. Conclusion: The use of mixed population for baseline risk assessment overestimates the risk for lung cancer due to low-dose radiation exposure in Japanese males.

기후변화 시나리오에 따른 미래 참다래 궤양병 피해 예측 (Impact of Climate Change on Yield Loss Caused by Bacterial Canker on Kiwifruit in Korea)

  • 도기석;정봉남;최경산;안정준;좌재호
    • 한국농림기상학회지
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    • 제18권2호
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    • pp.65-73
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    • 2016
  • RCP4.5와 RCP8.5 미래 기후 변화 시나리오자료와 참다래 궤양병 피해 예측 모형인 D-PSA-K, 미래 참다래 재배적지 지도를 활용하여 궤양병의 미래 피해를 예측하고 참다래 궤양병의 발생 변화의 경향성을 찾아 보았다. 병원 세균에 의한 감염이 충분히 있다는 가정 아래에서 RCP4.5와 RCP8.5 시나리오의 2020년대와 2050년대에서 궤양병의 최대이병주율은 제주도와 남해안 일부 지역을 제외한 대부분의 지역에서 75% 이상으로 나타날 것으로 예측되었다. 두 시나리오들 모두에서 월동기 저온 환경이 없다는 가정 아래에서의 참다래 궤양병에 의한 가지 피해량은 거의 모든 재배가능지에서 증가될 것으로 예측된 반면에 월동기 저온에 의한 가지 피해량 증가율은 거의 모든 재배가능지에서 감소할 것으로 예측되었다. 지역 및 시나리오별로 궤양병 피해의 증가 및 감소의 경향은 다르게 나타날 것으로 예측되었다. RCP4.5 시나리오에서 2050년대에 2020년대에 비하여 10% 이상 최대 이병주율의 증가가 일어날 것으로 예측된 참다래 재배 가능지는 전체 재배 가능지의 3.14%, RCP8.5 시나리오에서는 25.41%였다.

RADARSAT SAR 자료를 이용한 제주도 선구조 연구 및 용천 특성 연구 (RADARSAT SAR Investigations of Lineament and Spring Water in Cheju Island)

  • 원중선;류주형;지광훈
    • 대한원격탐사학회지
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    • 제14권4호
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    • pp.325-342
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    • 1998
  • 제주도 지질학적 선구조 및 용천연구를 위한 RADARSAT SAR의 활용 타당성 검토 연구가 Candain space agency의 도움으로 얻어진 2종류 다른 모드를 갖는 SAR 자료를 이용하여 수행되었다. 제주도는 현무암이 우세한 화산섬으로 지질학적 선구조의 발달이 매우 미약하나, 본 연구결과 기존에 Landat TM 만을 이용하여 얻어진 선구조보다 많은 선구조를 추출할 수 있었다. 이는 특히 TM 과 다른 관측방향과 입사각을 갖는 RADARSAT SAR 영상자료를 함께 사용함으로서, 보다 다양한 파장과 관측형태를 활용할 수 있는 장점을 극대화 할 수 있는 것으로 사료된다. 본 지역에서 연안에 발달한 용천의 분포와 선구조 혹은 수계망과의 연관은 거의 없는 것으로 사료되나, 중산간 지역에 발달한 일부 용천은 선구조와 연관되어 발달한 것으로 사료된다. SAR 및 광학원격탐사 자료를 이용한 용천의 위치파악을 위한 연구결과는 계상보다 힘든 것으로 나타났다. 이를 위해 열적외선 관측자료를 이용한 연안의 온도분포와 관측된 SAR 자료로부터 정규화된 레이더단면을 이용한 분석이 실시되었다. 해수의 온도는 소규모의 온도 이상분포가 방사상으로 나타나는 경우 가장 용천의 위치와 연관성이 높은 것으로 판단되나 해상도가 충분하지 못하며, SAR 의 경우 해상의 상태와 speckle 잡음의 영향으로 육지에 어느 정도 대규모의 저수지가 발달하지 않은 경우를 제외하고는 용천의 위치를 파악하는 데는 효과적이지 못한 것으로 나타났다. 본 지역에 얻어지는 SAR 자료의 speckle 및 영상특성은 입사각에 매우 민감하며, 특히 작은 입사각을 갖는 ERS-1의 경우가 비교적 큰 입사각을 갖는 RADARSAT SAR 영상보다 낮은 speckle 잡음비와 구조적 특징을 잘 반영하였다. 따라서 향후 제주도 지역에 대한 RADARSAT SAR 영상 획득을 위해서는 약 30$^{\circ}$이하의 낮은 입사각을 갖는 모드를 이용하는 것이 바람직할 것으로 판단된다.

경쟁 위험 회귀 모형의 이해와 추정 방법 (Estimation methods and interpretation of competing risk regression models)

  • 김미정
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제29권7호
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    • pp.1231-1246
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    • 2016
  • 경쟁위험에 대한 연구 중 주로 쓰이는 방법은 Cause-specific 위험 모형과 subdistribution을 이용한 비례 위험 모형 방법이다. 그 이후에도 많은 모형이 제시되었지만, 추정 방법 면에서 설명력이 부족하거나 알고리즘으로 구현하기 어려운 단점을 가지고 있어서 잘 활용되고 있지 않다. 이 논문에서는 Cause-specific 위험 모형, subdistribution을 이용한 비례 위험 모형과 비교적 최근에 제시된 이항 회귀 모형(direct binomial model), 절대 위험 회귀 모형(absolute risk regression model), Eriksson 등 (2015)의 비례 오즈 모형(proportional odds model)을 소개하고 추정 방법을 간단히 설명하고자 한다. 각 모형에 대하여 SAS와 R을 이용한 활용 방법을 제시하고, 두 가지 경쟁위험이 존재하는 데이터를 R을 이용하여 분석하였다.

Assessment of Midwifery Student Preparation for Performing the Role of Breast Cancer Educator

  • Bien, Agnieszka Maria;Korzynska-Pietas, Magdalena;Iwanowicz-Palus, Grazyna Jolanta
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제15권14호
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    • pp.5633-5638
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: Our research project aimed at presenting midwifery student self-assessment of performing the role of breast cancer prevention educator. Materials and Methods: Investigations were carried out in 2011 at the Medical University of Lublin in Poland, and Katolieke Hogeschool of Kortrijk in Belgium, after obtaining approval of the ethical committee of Polish Midwives Association (III/EC/2011/PMA). The project involved a total of 155 midwifery students, made up of 95 from Poland, and 60 from Belgium. Relations between opposing characteristics were tested with Chi-square ($x^2$) test for independent traits. To assess the dependence relation between the examined variables Pearson's corrected coefficient was used. Data base and statistics were carried out with computer software STATISTICA 9.0 (StatSoftPoland). Conclusions: Student knowledge on prevention against breast cancer was unsatisfactory. The students place of residence determined their self-estimation of personal knowledge of breast cancer prevention and diagnosing methods to assess the incidence of the disease, this knowledge being better with the students of Lublin. Better self-estimation in the students of Lublin of their personal knowledge on factors rising the risk of breast cancer, such as alimentation method, application of oral contraceptives and breast feeding was found than in Belgian students.

Immunological Monitoring of Urinary Aflatoxins and Estimation of Liver Cancer Incidence in Koreans

  • Choi, Mun-Jung;You, Young-Chan;Kim, Hyung-Sik;Lee, Byung-Mu
    • BMB Reports
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    • 제29권2호
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    • pp.105-110
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    • 1996
  • Polyclonal antiserum R101 against aflatoxin $B_1$ ($AFB_1$) was raised in New Zealand white rabbits after injection of bovine serum albumin-$AFB_1$ conjugate. Competitive ELISA (enzyme linked immuno-sorbent assay) demonstrated that antiserum R101 has the highest binding for $AFB_1$ (50% inhibition at 170 fmol) and aflatoxicol II (50% inhibition at 112 fmol). It also reacts with other aflatoxins such as $AFB_2$, $AFG_1$, $AFG_2$, and aflatoxin metabolites ($AFM_1$, $AFM_2$, $AFP_1$, and $AFQ_1$), but it does not cross-react with $AFG_2a$. Using this antiserum, aflatoxins were quantitated in 100 urine samples of undergraduate students at the College of Pharmacy, Sung Kyun Kwan University, Republic of Korea. By ELISA, $AFB_1$ and its metabolites were detected in human urine samples (N=100, male=89, female=11, ages=20~31 yrs) with a range of 1.4~200.6 ng/kg/day (mean$\pm$SD=$18.11{\pm}33.01\;ng\;AFB_1/kg/day$ in males, $3.82{\pm}2.65\;ng/kg/day$ in females). Assuming that urinary excretion is about 7.6% of $AFB_1$ intake (Groopman et al., 1992), we estimated that Koreans were daily exposed to a total dietary $AFB_1$ of $240.20{\pm}438.67\;ng/kg/day$ in males and $50.35{\pm}29.88\;ng/kg/day$ in females, respectively. When the human monitoring data was applied to a linear regression model of Y=21.67X-10.04 {Y=liver cancer incidence per 100,000, X=Log $AFB_1$ intake (ng/kg/day), r=0.99} developed from previously reported epidemiological data, calculated liver cancer incidences attributed to $AFB_1$ exposure were 41.56/100,000 in males and 26.84/100,000 in females. The incidences were similarly correlated with liver cancer mortality rates of 43.43/100,000 in males and 11.23/100,000 in females in Korea. These results suggest that aflatoxin exposure may be an important risk factor for the high incidence of liver cancer in Korea.

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시간 지연 추정 기법을 이용한 권취기의 장력 제어 알고리즘 (Tension Control of a Winding Machine using Time-delay Estimation)

  • 허정헌;유병용;김진욱
    • 드라이브 ㆍ 컨트롤
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    • 제15권3호
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    • pp.21-28
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    • 2018
  • We propose a tension controller based on a time-delay estimation (TDE) technique for a winding machine. Firstly, we perform the necessary calculations to derive a mathematical model of the winding machine. In this sense, it is revealed that the roll radius of the winding machine is characteristically seen to be increasing or decreasing during the winding process. That being said, it is noted that the parameters of the winding machine are coupled and constantly changing during this process. Understandably then, it is noted that the model is shown to be nonlinear and time-varying. Secondly, we propose the way to apply the TDE based controller which is the so-called Time-delay Control (TDC). The TDC utilizes the time-delayed information intentionally to compensate the nonlinear and time-varying characteristics. As we have seen, the proposed controller consists of two parts: one is a TDE component, and the other is an error dynamics component which is defined by a user. In a computer simulation based on the Matlab/Simulink program, the proposed controller is compared with a conventional PID controller, which is widely used in the tension control of the winding machine. The proposed controller reduces the incidence of overshoot and steady-state error in the tension control, as compared to the conventional PID controller.

2차원 평면상에서 이동하는 물체의 위치측정 (A Position Measurements of Moving Object in 2D Plane)

  • 노재희;이용중;최재하;노형식;이양범
    • 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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    • 제48권12호
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    • pp.1537-1543
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    • 1999
  • In this paper, PSD(Position Sensitive Detector) sensor system that estimates position for moving objects in 2D plane is developed. PSD sensor is used to measure the position of an incidence light in real-time. To get the position of light source of moving target, a new parameter calibration algorithm and neural network technique are proposed and applied. Real-time position measurements of the mobile robot with light source is examined to validate the proposed method. It is shown that the proposed technique provides accurate position estimation of the moving object.

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확률분포에 의한 리스크 빈도수와 손실규모 추정 프로세스 연구 (A Research on Process of Estimation about Frequency and Loss of Risk by distribution of Probability)

  • 이영재;이성일
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • 제15권2호
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    • pp.67-82
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    • 2008
  • Risk that breed large size disaster is happening variously for cause at social. natural a management. Incidence and damage scale are trend that increase rapidly than past. In these circumstance, to keep operational continuity of organization, area, society, risk management action that establish systematic counter measure estimating and analyze occurrence possibility and expectation damage of risk is essential indispensable issue and the best countermeasure. Risk management action does by main purpose establish optimum disaster reduction countermeasure. To deduce various countermeasure, process that estimate and analyze occurrence possibility and expectation damage of risk is essential indispensable issue. Therefore, this paper studies process design that can presume risk occurrence frequency and damage scale through distribution of probability.

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