• Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.703-713
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• 2015

A Linear Approximated Inverse Almost Ideal Demand System, suggested by Eales and Unnevehr, is estimated with monthly data set of Korean fruits consumption. LA/IAIDS consists of 6 demand equations which correspond to domestically produced Hanrabong, overwintering mandarin, strawberry, melon and tomato with imported orange. The results indicate that price and scale flexibilities are negative, as expected. And the significance is that a 10% increase in imported orange quantity is associated with 5.5% declines in the price of Korean Hanrabong while the price of other fruits is minimally affected. In addition, the estimate of scale flexibility of Hanrabong (-2.96) is much smaller than any other fruit. Hanrabong farmer might be in the face of deficit operation as a consequence of the substitution effect if orange would be imported in accordance with the Korea-U.S. free trade agreement.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.725-731
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• 2020

This study analyzed the impact of increasing orange imports on the domestic fruit markets, focusing on the period January to May when oranges were imported and sold intensively after implementation of the Korea-US FTA. In this study, only citrus fruits that compete with U.S. oranges were limited to domestic fruits; of these, Hallabong, which is consistent with consumption of U.S. oranges, was selected as an analysis target. A dynamic recursive simulation model was established to evaluate the ex-post effects of the Korea-U.S. FTA, and to conduct mid and long-term forecasts for the Hallabong market. In addition, major policy simulations were performed on the Hallabong market to assess the effect of each scenario. The ex-post impact evaluation reveals that between December and February, Hallabong had no effect on the seasonal tariff of oranges. However, from 2012 to 2017, the actual import decreased by 21.9 billion won annually due to the TRQ, with the accumulated 6-year decrease being 131.5 billion won. Major policy simulation analysis shows that the change in the unit cost of import due to the U.S orange crop and the increase of Hallabong export will help in expanding the market, and thus effectively increase income.