• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.39 no.2
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• pp.73-84
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• 2017

The probability distribution of ichthyoplankton is important for enhancing the precision of sampling while reducing unnecessary surveys. To estimate the ichthyoplankton detection proportion (IDP) and its margin of error (ME), the monitoring information of the chub mackerel's (Scomber japonicus) ichthyoplankton presence-absence sampling data has been were collected over approximately 30 years (from 1982 to 2011) in the Korean coastal seas. Based on the computed spatial distributions of the mackerel's IDP and ME, the confidence interval (CI) range, defined as 2 ME, decreases from approximately 80% to 40% as the sample size n increases from 4 to 24 and the ME is approximately 40% in the typical (seasonal survey) case n = 4 per year. The IDP and ME off Jeju Island are relatively high at the 0.5-degree smoothing level. After increasing the spatial smoothing level to 1.0-degree, the ME decreased, and the spatial distribution pattern also changed due to the over-smoothing effects. In this study, the 0.5-degree smoothing is more suitable for the distribution pattern than the 1.0-degree smoothing level. The area of the high IDP and the low ME on the mackerel's ichthyoplankton was similar to the estimated spawning ground in the Korean peninsula. This information could contribute to enhancing for the spawning ecology surveys.