• Title/Summary/Keyword: hybrid prediction algorithms

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Using Bayesian tree-based model integrated with genetic algorithm for streamflow forecasting in an urban basin

  • Nguyen, Duc Hai;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.140-140
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    • 2021
  • Urban flood management is a crucial and challenging task, particularly in developed cities. Therefore, accurate prediction of urban flooding under heavy precipitation is critically important to address such a challenge. In recent years, machine learning techniques have received considerable attention for their strong learning ability and suitability for modeling complex and nonlinear hydrological processes. Moreover, a survey of the published literature finds that hybrid computational intelligent methods using nature-inspired algorithms have been increasingly employed to predict or simulate the streamflow with high reliability. The present study is aimed to propose a novel approach, an ensemble tree, Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) model incorporating a nature-inspired algorithm to predict hourly multi-step ahead streamflow. For this reason, a hybrid intelligent model was developed, namely GA-BART, containing BART model integrating with Genetic algorithm (GA). The Jungrang urban basin located in Seoul, South Korea, was selected as a case study for the purpose. A database was established based on 39 heavy rainfall events during 2003 and 2020 that collected from the rain gauges and monitoring stations system in the basin. For the goal of this study, the different step ahead models will be developed based in the methods, including 1-hour, 2-hour, 3-hour, 4-hour, 5-hour, and 6-hour step ahead streamflow predictions. In addition, the comparison of the hybrid BART model with a baseline model such as super vector regression models is examined in this study. It is expected that the hybrid BART model has a robust performance and can be an optional choice in streamflow forecasting for urban basins.

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A Hybrid Multi-Level Feature Selection Framework for prediction of Chronic Disease

  • G.S. Raghavendra;Shanthi Mahesh;M.V.P. Chandrasekhara Rao
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.23 no.12
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    • pp.101-106
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    • 2023
  • Chronic illnesses are among the most common serious problems affecting human health. Early diagnosis of chronic diseases can assist to avoid or mitigate their consequences, potentially decreasing mortality rates. Using machine learning algorithms to identify risk factors is an exciting strategy. The issue with existing feature selection approaches is that each method provides a distinct set of properties that affect model correctness, and present methods cannot perform well on huge multidimensional datasets. We would like to introduce a novel model that contains a feature selection approach that selects optimal characteristics from big multidimensional data sets to provide reliable predictions of chronic illnesses without sacrificing data uniqueness.[1] To ensure the success of our proposed model, we employed balanced classes by employing hybrid balanced class sampling methods on the original dataset, as well as methods for data pre-processing and data transformation, to provide credible data for the training model. We ran and assessed our model on datasets with binary and multivalued classifications. We have used multiple datasets (Parkinson, arrythmia, breast cancer, kidney, diabetes). Suitable features are selected by using the Hybrid feature model consists of Lassocv, decision tree, random forest, gradient boosting,Adaboost, stochastic gradient descent and done voting of attributes which are common output from these methods.Accuracy of original dataset before applying framework is recorded and evaluated against reduced data set of attributes accuracy. The results are shown separately to provide comparisons. Based on the result analysis, we can conclude that our proposed model produced the highest accuracy on multi valued class datasets than on binary class attributes.[1]

The Hybrid Systems for Credit Rating

  • Goo, Han-In;Jo, Hong-Kyuo;Shin, Kyung-Shik
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.163-173
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    • 1997
  • Although numerous studies demonstrate that one technique outperforms the others for a given data set, it is hard to tell a priori which of these techniques will be the most effective to solve a specific problem. It has been suggested that the better approach to classification problem might be to integrate several different forecasting techniques by combining their results. The issues of interest are how to integrate different modeling techniques to increase the predictive performance. This paper proposes the post-model integration method, which tries to find the best combination of the results provided by individual techniques. To get the optimal or near optimal combination of different prediction techniques, Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are applied, which are particularly suitable for multi-parameter optimization problems with an object function subject to numerous hard and soft constraints. This study applies three individual classification techniques (Discriminant analysis, Logit model and Neural Networks) as base models for the corporate failure prediction. The results of composite predictions are compared with the individual models. Preliminary results suggests that the use of integrated methods improve the performance of business classification.

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An insight into the prediction of mechanical properties of concrete using machine learning techniques

  • Neeraj Kumar Shukla;Aman Garg;Javed Bhutto;Mona Aggarwal;M.Ramkumar Raja;Hany S. Hussein;T.M. Yunus Khan;Pooja Sabherwal
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.263-286
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    • 2023
  • Experimenting with concrete to determine its compressive and tensile strengths is a laborious and time-consuming operation that requires a lot of attention to detail. Researchers from all around the world have spent the better part of the last several decades attempting to use machine learning algorithms to make accurate predictions about the technical qualities of various kinds of concrete. The research that is currently available on estimating the strength of concrete draws attention to the applicability and precision of the various machine learning techniques. This article provides a summary of the research that has previously been conducted on estimating the strength of concrete by making use of a variety of different machine learning methods. In this work, a classification of the existing body of research literature is presented, with the classification being based on the machine learning technique used by the researchers. The present review work will open the horizon for the researchers working on the machine learning based prediction of the compressive strength of concrete by providing the recommendations and benefits and drawbacks associated with each model as determining the compressive strength of concrete practically is a laborious and time-consuming task.

Slime mold and four other nature-inspired optimization algorithms in analyzing the concrete compressive strength

  • Yinghao Zhao;Hossein Moayedi;Loke Kok Foong;Quynh T. Thi
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.65-91
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    • 2024
  • The use of five optimization techniques for the prediction of a strength-based concrete mixture's best-fit model is examined in this work. Five optimization techniques are utilized for this purpose: Slime Mold Algorithm (SMA), Black Hole Algorithm (BHA), Multi-Verse Optimizer (MVO), Vortex Search (VS), and Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA). MATLAB employs a hybrid learning strategy to train an artificial neural network that combines least square estimation with backpropagation. Thus, 72 samples are utilized as training datasets and 31 as testing datasets, totaling 103. The multi-layer perceptron (MLP) is used to analyze all data, and results are verified by comparison. For training datasets in the best-fit models of SMA-MLP, BHA-MLP, MVO-MLP, VS-MLP, and WOA-MLP, the statistical indices of coefficient of determination (R2) in training phase are 0.9603, 0.9679, 0.9827, 0.9841 and 0.9770, and in testing phase are 0.9567, 0.9552, 0.9594, 0.9888 and 0.9695 respectively. In addition, the best-fit structures for training for SMA, BHA, MVO, VS, and WOA (all combined with multilayer perceptron, MLP) are achieved when the term population size was modified to 450, 500, 250, 150, and 500, respectively. Among all the suggested options, VS could offer a stronger prediction network for training MLP.

Ensembles of neural network with stochastic optimization algorithms in predicting concrete tensile strength

  • Hu, Juan;Dong, Fenghui;Qiu, Yiqi;Xi, Lei;Majdi, Ali;Ali, H. Elhosiny
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.45 no.2
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    • pp.205-218
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    • 2022
  • Proper calculation of splitting tensile strength (STS) of concrete has been a crucial task, due to the wide use of concrete in the construction sector. Following many recent studies that have proposed various predictive models for this aim, this study suggests and tests the functionality of three hybrid models in predicting the STS from the characteristics of the mixture components including cement compressive strength, cement tensile strength, curing age, the maximum size of the crushed stone, stone powder content, sand fine modulus, water to binder ratio, and the ratio of sand. A multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural network incorporates invasive weed optimization (IWO), cuttlefish optimization algorithm (CFOA), and electrostatic discharge algorithm (ESDA) which are among the newest optimization techniques. A dataset from the earlier literature is used for exploring and extrapolating the STS behavior. The results acquired from several accuracy criteria demonstrated a nice learning capability for all three hybrid models viz. IWO-MLP, CFOA-MLP, and ESDA-MLP. Also in the prediction phase, the prediction products were in a promising agreement (above 88%) with experimental results. However, a comparative look revealed the ESDA-MLP as the most accurate predictor. Considering mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) index, the error of ESDA-MLP was 9.05%, while the corresponding value for IWO-MLP and CFOA-MLP was 9.17 and 13.97%, respectively. Since the combination of MLP and ESDA can be an effective tool for optimizing the concrete mixture toward a desirable STS, the last part of this study is dedicated to extracting a predictive formula from this model.

Development of Real Coded Genetic Algorithm for Multiperiod Optimization

  • Chang, Young-Jung;Song, Sang-Ok;Song, Ji-Ho;Dongil Shin;S. Ando
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2000.10a
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    • pp.396-396
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    • 2000
  • Multiperiod optimization is the key step to tackle the supply chain optimization problems. Taking supply and demand uncertainty or prediction into consideration during the process synthesis phase leads to the maximization of the profit for the long range time horizon. In this study, new algorithm based on the Genetic Algorithms is proposed for multiperiod optimization formulated in MINLP, GDP and hybrid MINLP/GDP. In this study, the focus is given especially on the design of the Genetic Algorithm suitable to handle disjunctive programming with the same level of MINLP handling capability. Hybridization with the Simulated Annealing is tried. and many heuristics are adopted for this purpose.

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Compressive strength estimation of eco-friendly geopolymer concrete: Application of hybrid machine learning techniques

  • Xiang, Yang;Jiang, Daibo;Hateo, Gou
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.45 no.6
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    • pp.877-894
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    • 2022
  • Geopolymer concrete (GPC) has emerged as a feasible choice for construction materials as a result of the environmental issues associated with the production of cement. The findings of this study contribute to the development of machine learning methods for estimating the properties of eco-friendly concrete to help reduce CO2 emissions in the construction industry. The compressive strength (fc) of GPC is predicted using artificial intelligence approaches in the present study when ground granulated blast-furnace slag (GGBS) is substituted with natural zeolite (NZ), silica fume (SF), and varying NaOH concentrations. For this purpose, two machine learning methods multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and radial basis function (RBF) were considered and hybridized with arithmetic optimization algorithm (AOA), and grey wolf optimization algorithm (GWO). According to the results, all methods performed very well in predicting the fc of GPC. The proposed AOA - MLP might be identified as the outperformed framework, although other methodologies (AOA - RBF, GWO - RBF, and GWO - MLP) were also reliable in the fc of GPC forecasting process.

A novel liquefaction prediction framework for seismically-excited tunnel lining

  • Shafiei, Payam;Azadi, Mohammad;Razzaghi, Mehran Seyed
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.401-419
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    • 2022
  • A novel hybrid extreme machine learning-multiverse optimizer (ELM-MVO) framework is proposed to predict the liquefaction phenomenon in seismically excited tunnel lining inside the sand lens. The MVO is applied to optimize the input weights and biases of the ELM algorithm to improve its efficiency. The tunnel located inside the liquefied sand lens is also evaluated under various near- and far-field earthquakes. The results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method to predict the liquefaction event against the conventional extreme machine learning (ELM) and artificial neural network (ANN) algorithms. The outcomes also indicate that the possibility of liquefaction in sand lenses under far-field seismic excitations is much less than the near-field excitations, even with a small magnitude. Hence, tunnels designed in geographical areas where seismic excitations are more likely to be generated in the near area should be specially prepared. The sand lens around the tunnel also has larger settlements due to liquefaction.

Developing an Ensemble Classifier for Bankruptcy Prediction (부도 예측을 위한 앙상블 분류기 개발)

  • Min, Sung-Hwan
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.7
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    • pp.139-148
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    • 2012
  • An ensemble of classifiers is to employ a set of individually trained classifiers and combine their predictions. It has been found that in most cases the ensembles produce more accurate predictions than the base classifiers. Combining outputs from multiple classifiers, known as ensemble learning, is one of the standard and most important techniques for improving classification accuracy in machine learning. An ensemble of classifiers is efficient only if the individual classifiers make decisions as diverse as possible. Bagging is the most popular method of ensemble learning to generate a diverse set of classifiers. Diversity in bagging is obtained by using different training sets. The different training data subsets are randomly drawn with replacement from the entire training dataset. The random subspace method is an ensemble construction technique using different attribute subsets. In the random subspace, the training dataset is also modified as in bagging. However, this modification is performed in the feature space. Bagging and random subspace are quite well known and popular ensemble algorithms. However, few studies have dealt with the integration of bagging and random subspace using SVM Classifiers, though there is a great potential for useful applications in this area. The focus of this paper is to propose methods for improving SVM performance using hybrid ensemble strategy for bankruptcy prediction. This paper applies the proposed ensemble model to the bankruptcy prediction problem using a real data set from Korean companies.