• Title/Summary/Keyword: historical simulation

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Starategy for Advanced Decision Supprot System Development for Integrated Management of Water Resources and Quality (수자원 수질 종합관리를 위한 ADSS 개발 전략)

  • 심순보
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 1992.07a
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    • pp.443-447
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    • 1992
  • This study describes the strategy for advanced decision support system (ADSS) development for integrated management of water resources and quality in reservoir systems. The developed ADSS consists of database that contain hydrologic data, observed operational data, and data to support specific reservoir operations simulation, optimization models, and water quality models. The optimization model, mass balance simulation model and water quality models are used in a general prototype ADSS, menu driven controlling framework that assists the user to specify and evaluate the alternative operational scenarios at one time. These alternative scenarios are evaluated by the models and the results are compared through the use of a graphical based display system. This graphical based system uses an icon based schematic representation of the system to organize the presentation of the results. The ADSS includes the ability to use monthly or weekly time periods of analysis for the models and it can use monthly historical or stochastically generated inflows.

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Seismic Protection of Cable-stayed Bridges Using LRB and MR Damper (납-고무받침과 자기유변유체 감쇠기를 이용한 사장교의 내진제어)

  • 정형조;박규식;이인원
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.241-245
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    • 2003
  • This paper presents the LRB-based hybrid base isolation system employing additional semiactive control devices for seismic protection of cable-stayed bridges by examining the ASCE first generation benchmark problem for a cable-stayed bridge. In this study, ideal magnetorheological dampers (MRDs) are considered as additional semiactive control devices. Numerical simulation results show that the hybrid base isolation system is effective in reducing the structural responses of the benchmark cable-stayed bridge under the historical earthquakes considered. The simulation results also demonstrate that the hybrid base Isolation system employing semiactive MRDs is robust to the stiffness uncertainty of the structure. Therefore, the LRB-based hybrid base isolation system employing MRDs could be appropriate in real applications for full-scale civil infrastructures.

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Performance Evaluation of Conflict Detection Schemes for Concurrent Temporal Tranactions (시간지원 크랙잭션을 위한 충돌 검출 기법의 성능평가)

  • 구경이;하봉옥;김유성
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.80-80
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    • 1999
  • As Temporal DataBase Systems(TDBSs) manages both the historical versions and the current version of each data item, a temporal transaction may access more data records than atransaction in traditional database systems. Hence, the concurrency control subsystem of temporaldatabase management system should be able to correctly and efficiently detect actual conflicts amongconcurrent temporal transactions while the cost of detecting conflicts is maintained in low levelwithout detecting false conflicts which cause severe degradation of system throughput.In this paper, Two-Level Conflict Detection(TLCD) scheme is proposed for efficient conflictdetection between concurrent temporal transactions in TDBs. In the proposed TLCD scheme, sincechecking conflict between concurrent temporal transactions is performed at two levels, i, e., logicallevel and physical level, conflicts between concurrent temporal transactions are efficiently and correctlydetected,Furthermore, we also evaluate the performance of the proposed TLCD scheme with those oftraditional conflict detection schemes, logical-level conflict detection scheme and physical-level conflictdetection scheme by simulation approach, The result of the simulation study shows that the proposedTLCD scheme outperforms the previous conflict detection schemes with respect to the averageresponse time.

LRB-based Hybrid Base Isolation Systems for Seismically Excited Cable-Stayed Bridges (지진하중을 받는 사장교를 위한 LRB-기반 복합 기초격리 시스템)

  • 정형조;박규식;이헌재;이인원
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 2003.10a
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    • pp.527-534
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    • 2003
  • This paper presents the LRB-based hybrid base isolation systems employing additional active/semiactive control devices for seismic protection of cable-stayed bridges by examining the ASCE first generation benchmark problem for a cable-stayed bridge. In this study, ideal hydraulic actuators (HAs) and ideal magnetorheological dampers (MRDs) are considered as additional active and semiactive control devices, respectively. Numerical simulation results show that all the hybrid base isolation systems are effective in reducing the structural responses of the benchmark cable-stayed bridge under the historical earthquakes considered. The simulation results also demonstrate that the hybrid base isolation system employing semiactive MRBs is robust to the stiffness uncertainty of the structure, while the hybrid system with active HAs is not. Therefore, the LRB-based hybrid base isolation system employing MRDs could be more appropriate in real applications for full-scale civil infrastructures.

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Analysis of Farm Management Stabilization Effects Using Weather Derivatives for Apple Farmers in Kyeongpuk District (날씨파생상품을 이용한 경북지역 사과농가 경영안정 효과 분석)

  • Yun, Sung-Wuk;Choi, Jang-Hoon;Chung, Won-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.459-475
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    • 2020
  • This study analyzes weather derivatives as an alternative risk management tool to stabilize farm revenue to complement the existing crop insurance program which suffers from asymmetric information problems such as adverse selection, moral hazard, and verifiability. We estimated apple yield functions to observe the relationship between yields and weather indices such as temperature and precipitation. Based on the estimated yield functions we designed weather futures and options products underlying temperature and precipitation, and calculated the prices of futures and options by two different approaches, historical distribution and Monte Carlo simulation. We found that weather futures and options stabilize farm revenue based on the estimated four risk indicators: Coefficient of Variation, Value at Risk, Certainty Equivalence, and Risk Premium. As a result, weather derivatives could be considered as a potential farm risk management tool through studying more in legal and institutional strategies and developing various derivatives products.

Machine Learning Based Neighbor Path Selection Model in a Communication Network

  • Lee, Yong-Jin
    • International journal of advanced smart convergence
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.56-61
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    • 2021
  • Neighbor path selection is to pre-select alternate routes in case geographically correlated failures occur simultaneously on the communication network. Conventional heuristic-based algorithms no longer improve solutions because they cannot sufficiently utilize historical failure information. We present a novel solution model for neighbor path selection by using machine learning technique. Our proposed machine learning neighbor path selection (ML-NPS) model is composed of five modules- random graph generation, data set creation, machine learning modeling, neighbor path prediction, and path information acquisition. It is implemented by Python with Keras on Tensorflow and executed on the tiny computer, Raspberry PI 4B. Performance evaluations via numerical simulation show that the neighbor path communication success probability of our model is better than that of the conventional heuristic by 26% on the average.

Suitability of stochastic models for mortality projection in Korea: a follow-up discussion

  • Le, Thu Thi Ngoc;Kwon, Hyuk-Sung
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.171-188
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    • 2021
  • Due to an increased demand for longevity risk analysis, various stochastic models have been suggested to evaluate uncertainly in estimated life expectancy and the associated value of future annuity payments. Recently updated data allow us to analyze mortality for a longer historical period and extended age ranges. This study followed up previous case studies using up-to-date empirical data on Korean mortality and the recently developed R package StMoMo for stochastic mortality models analysis. The suitability of stochastic mortality models, focusing on retirement ages, was investigated with goodness-of-fit, validity of models, and ability of generating reasonable sets of simulation paths of future mortality. Comparisons were made across various types of models. Based on the selected models, the variability of important estimated measures associated with pension, annuity, and reverse mortgage were quantified using simulations.

DATA MINING-BASED MULTIDIMENSIONAL EXTRACTION METHOD FOR INDICATORS OF SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM FOR PEOPLE WITH DISABILITIES

  • BATYHA, RADWAN M.
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.40 no.1_2
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    • pp.289-303
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    • 2022
  • This article examines the multidimensional index extraction method of the disability social security system based on data mining. While creating the data warehouse of the social security system for the disabled, we need to know the elements of the social security indicators for the disabled. In this context, a clustering algorithm was used to extract the indicators of the social security system for the disabled by investigating the historical dimension of social security for the disabled. The simulation results show that the index extraction method has high coverage, sensitivity and reliability. In this paper, a multidimensional extraction method is introduced to extract the indicators of the social security system for the disabled based on data mining. The simulation experiments show that the method presented in this paper is more reliable, and the indicators of social security system for the disabled extracted are more effective in practical application.

Development of Operating Guidelines of a Multi-reservoir System Using an Artificial Neural Network Model (인공 신경망 모형을 활용한 저수지 군의 연계운영 기준 수립)

  • Na, Mi-Suk;Kim, Jae-Hee;Kim, Sheung-Kown
    • IE interfaces
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.311-318
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    • 2010
  • In the daily multi-reservoir operating problem, monthly storage targets can be used as principal operational guidelines. In this study, we tested the use of a simple back-propagation Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model to derive monthly storage guideline for daily Coordinated Multi-reservoir Operating Model (CoMOM) of the Han-River basin. This approach is based on the belief that the optimum solution of the daily CoMOM has a good performance, and the ANN model trained with the results of daily CoMOM would produce effective monthly operating guidelines. The optimum results of daily CoMOM is used as the training set for the back-propagation ANN model, which is designed to derive monthly reservoir storage targets in the basin. For the input patterns of the ANN model, we adopted the ratios of initial storage of each dam to the storage of Paldang dam, ratios of monthly expected inflow of each dam to the total inflow of the whole basin, ratios of monthly demand at each dam to the total demand of the whole basin, ratio of total storage of the whole basin to the active storage of Paldang dam, and the ratio of total inflow of the whole basin to the active storage of the whole basin. And the output pattern of ANN model is the optimal final storages that are generated by the daily CoMOM. Then, we analyzed the performance of the ANN model by using a real-time simulation procedure for the multi-reservoir system of the Han-river basin, assuming that historical inflows from October 1st, 2004 to June 30th, 2007 (except July, August, September) were occurred. The simulation results showed that by utilizing the monthly storage target provided by the ANN model, we could reduce the spillages, increase hydropower generation, and secure more water at the end of the planning horizon compared to the historical records.

Spatio-temporal Graph for Representing Historical Situations in Virtual Reality (가상현실 속의 상황 표현을 위한 시공간 그래프)

  • Park, Jong-Hee;Cho, Kyu-Myoung
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.12 no.8
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2012
  • We develop the Spatio-Temporal Graph to imbue the historical context to the situations in a virtual world, and an ontology to enable a structural description of their elements such as the objects, relationships, and activities. In the time dimension the graph models all the temporal phases of the future besides the past and present in a comprehensive manner, and all the spatial aspects in an intuitive but efficient fashion. The overall architecture composing the Physical Layer, Logical Layer and Conceptual Layer which are integrated according to their interrelations allows events occurring in their corresponding worlds to be simulated in historical context. The S-T Graph could be used both to simulate the situations in the virtual world and to realize the knowledge systems of the virtual inhabitants to be used in judging and evaluating those situations. By adding temporal changes to the multi-layered architecture of our virtual world, this model lays a foundation for maximizing the diversity of situations in the simulation of a virtual world.