• 제목/요약/키워드: heavy snowfall

검색결과 139건 처리시간 0.024초

영동대설 사례에 대한 MM5 강수량 모의의 통계적 검증 (Statistical Verification of Precipitation Forecasts from MM5 for Heavy Snowfall Events in Yeongdong Region)

  • 이정순;권태영;김덕래
    • 대기
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    • 제16권2호
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    • pp.125-139
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    • 2006
  • Precipitation forecasts from MM5 have been verified for the period 1989-2001 over Yeongdong region to show a tendency of model forecast. We select 57 events which are related with the heavy snowfall in Yeongdong region. They are classified into three precipitation types; mountain type, cold-coastal type, and warm type. The threat score (TS), the probability of detection (POD), and the false-alarm rate (FAR) are computed for categorical verification and the mean squared error (MSE) is also computed for scalar accuracy measures. In the case of POD, warm, mountain, and cold-coastal precipitation type are 0.71, 0.69, and 0.55 in turn, respectively. In aspect of quantitative verification, mountain and cold-coastal type are relatively well matched between forecasts and observations, while for warm type MM5 tends to overestimate precipitation. There are 12 events for the POD below 0.2, mountain, cold-coastal, warm type are 2, 7, 3 events, respectively. Most of their precipitation are distributed over the East Sea nearby Yeongdong region. These events are also shown when there are no or very weak easterlies in the lower troposphere. Even in the case that we use high resolution sea surface temperature (about 18 km) for the boundary condition, there are not much changes in the wind direction to compare that with low resolution sea surface temperature (about 100 km).

2016년 1월 23일 제주도에 일어난 국지규모 폭설의 원인과 특징에 관한 사례 연구 (A Case Study on Causes and Characteristics of the Local Snowstorm in Jeju Island During 23 January 2016)

  • 여지혜;하경자
    • 대기
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    • 제27권2호
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    • pp.177-188
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    • 2017
  • The development mechanisms of an unusual heavy snowfall event, which occurred in the coast of Jeju Island on 23 January 2016 were investigated through a thermodynamic approach. The formation of heavy snowfall was attributed to the enhanced thermal convection in two ways. First, the convection was enhanced by the air-sea temperature difference between the cold air advection in low-troposphere associated with the strengthening of the Siberian High and abnormal warm sea surface temperature, which is $1{\sim}2^{\circ}C$ higher than normal year over the Yellow Sea (YS). Second, the convective instability was increased by the vertical temperature gradient between the 7 days-sustained cold air advection in low-troposphere and the abrupt cold air intrusion in mid-troposphere induced by the southward shift of a cold cut-off vortex ($-45^{\circ}C$) at the formation stage. Compared to the twelve hours prior to the formation, the low-level moisture increased by 5% through the moisture supply from the YS, and the air-sea temperature difference increased from $18.5^{\circ}C$ to $28.5^{\circ}C$. Furthermore, the upward sensible (latent) heat flux increased 1.5 (1.2) times over the YS before the twelve hours prior to the formation. Thereafter, the sustained moisture supply and upward turbulent heat flux helped to maintain the snowstorm.

북한 지역의 산맥군이 영동 지역의 겨울철 강설 분포에 미치는 영향에 관한 수치 연구 (A Numerical Case Study Examining the Orographic Effect of the Northern Mountain Complex on Snowfall Distribution over the Yeongdong Region)

  • 이재규;김유진
    • 대기
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    • 제19권4호
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    • pp.345-370
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    • 2009
  • Numerical experiments using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were done to identify the role of the mountain ranges in the northern part of the Peninsula (referred as "the northern mountain complex"), in the occurrence of two heavy snowfall events over the Yeongdong region on 7-8 December 2002 and 20-21 January 2008. To this end, control simulations with the topography of the northern mountain complex and other simulations without the topography of the mountain complex were performed. It was revealed that the amount of snowfall over the Yeongdong region from the control simulation much more exceeded that of the simulation without the topography of the mountain complex. This increase of the snowfall amount over the Yeongdong region can be explained as follows: As the upstream flow approached the northern mountain complex, it deflected around the northern mountain complex due to the blocking effect of the mountains with a low Froude number less than ~0.16. This lead to the strengthening of northeasterly over the East Sea and over the Yeongdong region. The strong northeasterly is accompanied with much more snowfall over the Yeongdong region by intensifying air-mass modification over the sea and the orographic effect of the Taeback mountains. Thus, it was concluded that the topography of the northern mountain complex is one of the main factors in determining the distribution and amount of precipitation in the Yeongdong region when there is an expansion of the Siberian High toward the East Sea.

영동 지역에서 강설 특성 관측 및 이해 (Observation and Understanding of Snowfall Characteristics in the Yeongdong Region)

  • 김병곤;김미경;권태영;박균명;한윤덕;김승범;장기호
    • 대기
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    • 제31권4호
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    • pp.461-472
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    • 2021
  • Yeongdong has frequently suffered from severe snowstorms, which generally give rise to societal and economic damages to the region in winter. In order to understand its mechanism, there has been a long-term measurement campaign, based on the rawinsonde measurements for every snowfall event at Gangneung since 2014. The previous observations showed that a typical heavy snowfall is generally accompanied with northerly or northeasterly flow below the snow clouds, generated by cold air outbreak over the relatively warmer East Sea. An intensive and multi-institutional measurement campaign has been launched in 2019 mainly in collaboration with Gangwon Regional Office of Meteorology and National Institute of Meteorological Studies of Korean Meteorological Administration, with a special emphasis on winter snowfall and spring windstorm altogether. The experiment spanned largely from February to April with comprehensive measurements of frequent rawinsonde measurements at a super site (Gangneung) with continuous remote sensings of wind profiler, microwave radiometers and weather radar etc. Additional measurements were added to the campaign, such as aircraft dropsonde measurements and shipboard rawinsonde soundings. One of the fruitful outcomes is, so far, to identify a couple of cold air damming occurrences, featuring lowest temperature below 1 km, which hamper the convergence zone and snow clouds from penetrating inland, and eventually make it harder to forecast snowfall in terms of its location and timing. This kind of comprehensive observation campaign with continuous remote sensings and intensive additional measurement platforms should be conducted to understand various orographic precipitation in the complex terrain like Yeongdong.

기상상황에 따른 서울시 대중교통 이용 변화 분석: 폭설을 중심으로 (Analysis of Public Transport Ridership during a Heavy Snowfall in Seoul)

  • 원민수;천승훈;신성일;이선영
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제39권6호
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    • pp.859-867
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    • 2019
  • 기상상황(폭염, 폭우, 한파, 폭설)은 대중교통 통행 및 이용 패턴에 영향을 미치는 중요한 변수 중의 하나이며, 시스템의 예측가능성과 안정성을 중시하는 교통분야에서 이러한 기상의 영향을 이해하는 것은 매우 중요한 요소중의 하나이다. 그러므로 본 연구에서는, 서울시를 대상으로 기상상황에 따른 대중교통 이용 변화를 분석하고 해석하고자 하였다. 먼저, 기상, 모바일폰통신, 대중교통카드 자료를 이용하여 각 기상 상황별 서울시 대중교통 이용 변화를 살펴보고, 가장 영향이 큰 폭설 상황을 기준으로 대중교통 이용패턴을 지역별로 분석하였다. 또한, 의사결정모델(Decision-tree Model)를 활용하여 각 영향 변수들 간의 복잡한 관계를 밝히고자 하였다. 분석결과, 폭설 시, 전체 통행에 대한 잠재수요는 감소하고, 대중교통으로의 수단 전환이 일어나는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 또한, 강동 및 송파 지역과 강서, 구로, 양천, 영등포 지역은 대중교통 이용이 증가하였으며, 관악, 금천, 동작 지역은 상대적으로 큰 변화가 없는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 마지막으로, 폭설 시 대중교통 출발량의 변화는 도보접근통행시간, 정류장 근처 주차 가용성 등이 중요한 역할을 하며, 도착량의 변화는 해당 도착지의 종사자 및 사업체 밀도와 밀접한 연관이 있다는 것을 알 수 있었다.

지형에 따른 강원지역의 강설입자 크기 분포 특성 분석 (Characteristics Analysis of Snow Particle Size Distribution in Gangwon Region according to Topography)

  • 방원배;김권일;염대진;조수정;이청룡;이대형;예보영;이규원
    • 한국지구과학회지
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    • 제40권3호
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    • pp.227-239
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    • 2019
  • 강원지역은 우리나라의 다설지로서 복잡한 지형 때문에 강설량의 공간변동성이 크다. 특히 동풍조건에서 강설이 발생할 시 강설량의 공간적 변동을 예측하기 어렵다. 동풍조건에서는 강원지역 내 위치에 따라 대기환경조건이 다르며 이는 강설의 특성에도 영향을 줄 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 동풍 조건에서 태백산맥의 풍상측과 풍하측에서 강설의 미세물리적 특성을 서로 비교 분석하였다. 강원지역 내 4개 관측지점을 선정하여 파시벨 수적계로 입자크기분포를 관측하였다. 얻어진 강설입자 크기 분포의 특성을 풍상측과 풍하측간 비교한 결과, 풍상측의 강설입자 크기 분포는 풍하측에 비해 넓은 분포를 가졌고 작은 강설입자의 수도 많았다. 강설입자의 수농도에 비례하는 보편특성수농도와 강설입자의 직경에 비례하는 보편특성직경 둘 다 풍상측에서 상대적으로 큰 값을 보였다. 또한, 얼음수함량과 강설강도 비교에서도 풍상측 지점에서 큰 평균값을 가졌다. 이 결과가 나타난 원인은 태백산맥 산사면에서 공기덩어리의 강제적 상승효과로 풍상측 지점 상공에 새로운 강설입자의 생성이 활발했기 때문으로 추정된다. 또한, 풍상측은 따뜻하고 습한 동풍이 불어오므로 이로 인해 지상기온이 $0^{\circ}C$ 근처에 머무르며 강한 부착과정이 일어나기 좋은 조건이다.

2014년 대설관측실험(Experiment on Snow Storms At Yeongdong: ESSAY)기간 강설 및 눈결정 특성분석 (Study on Characteristics of Snowfall and Snow Crystal Habits in the ESSAY (Experiment on Snow Storms At Yeongdong) Campaign in 2014)

  • 서원석;은승희;김병곤;고아름;성대경;이규민;전혜림;한상옥;박영산
    • 대기
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    • 제25권2호
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    • pp.261-270
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    • 2015
  • Characteristics of snowfall and snow crystal habits have been investigated in the campaign of Experiment on Snow Storms At Yeongdong (ESSAY) using radiosonde soundings, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), and a digital camera with a magnifier for taking a photograph of snowfall crystals. The analysis period is 6 to 14 February 2014, when the accumulated snowfall amount is 192.8 cm with the longest snowfall duration of 9 days. The synoptic situations are similar to those of the previous studies such as the Low pressure system passing by the far South of the Korean peninsula along with the Siberian High extending to northern Japan, which eventually results in the northeasterly or easterly flows and the long-lasting snowfall episodes in the Yeongdong region. In general, the ice clouds tended to exist below around 2~3 km with the consistent easterly flows, and the winds shifted to northerly~northwesterly above the clouds layer. The snow crystal habits observed in the ESSAY campaign were mainly dendrite, consisting of 70% of the entire habits. The rimed habits were frequently captured when two-layered clouds were observed, probably through the process of freezing of super-cooled droplets on the ice particles. The homogeneous habit such as dendrite was shown in case of shallow clouds with its thickness of below 500 m whereas various habits were captured such as dendrites, rimed dendrites, aggregates of dendrites, plates, rimed plates, etc in the thick cloud with its thickness greater than 1.5 km. The dendrites appeared to be dominant in the condition of cloud top temperature specifically ranging $-12{\sim}-16^{\circ}C$. However, the association of snow crystal habits with temperature and super-saturation in the cloud could not be examined in the current study. Better understandings of characteristics of snow crystal habits would contribute to preventing breakdown accidents such as a greenhouse destruction and collapse of a temporary building due to heavy snowfall, and traffic accidents due to snow-slippery road condition, providing a higher-level weather information of snow quality for skiers participating in the winter sports, and estimating more accurate snowfall amount, location, and duration with the fallspeed of solid precipitation.

'07. 12. 29$\sim$'08. 1. 1 대설 피해 특성과 시설물 안전관리방안 (On the Spot Inspection of Heavy Snow Damage in the Honam District (Dec. 29, 2007$\sim$Jan. 1, 2008))

  • 박병철;이정한;박민규
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국방재학회 2008년도 정기총회 및 학술발표대회
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    • pp.509-512
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    • 2008
  • The objectives of the on-the-spot inspection in Honam district are to find out the situation of the damages on facilities and the reason of the damages caused by heavy snow, and to suggest the preventive plan for reducing the damages from the future heavy snow. From the results of the on-the-spot inspection, plastic houses, barns and ginseng cultivation facilities are mainly damaged by heavy snow in the Honam district, and the importance of the future heavy snow preparedness measures is highly recognized in an agricultural district. In this research, 4 kinds of alternative proposals for the heavy snow are suggested.

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극저기압에 의한 한반도 강설 발달기구 분석 (Analysis of Snowfall Development Mechanism over the Korean Peninsula due to Polar Low)

  • 김진연;민기홍
    • 한국지구과학회지
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    • 제34권7호
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    • pp.645-661
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    • 2013
  • 본 연구에서는 2010년 12월 27일부터 28일까지 서울을 포함한 수도권 지역에 많은 강설을 일으킨 사례의 종관적, 열역학적 및 역학적 특징을 조사하였다. 이 사례는 극저기압으로 분류할 수 있는 특성을 지녔다. 분석에 사용된 자료는 지상 및 상층 일기도, 강설량, 해수면온도, 위성사진, 연직프로파일 및 미국 국립환경예측센터의 전구 $1^{\circ}{\times}1^{\circ}$ 재분석자료 등이다. 극저기압은 대기 하층에서 양의 경압성이 강하게 나타나며 925 hPa에 온난이류가, 700 hPa에 한랭이류가 있어 조건부 불안정층이 뚜렷하게 보이는 곳에서 형성되는 것으로 사료된다. 극저기압의 발달기구는 대류권계면 접힘에 의한 성층권 공기의 유입과 그에 따른 위치 소용돌이도의 증가로 하층에 수렴과 저기압성 순환의 유발에 기인한다. 이는 눈구름의 발달로 이어져 서울 지역에는 10 cm, 남부지방에는 최고 20 cm까지 적설을 보였다. 강설의 발달기간동안 상층 500 hPa에는 $-45^{\circ}C$의 한랭핵이 존재하였고 단파골과 지상 기압골간의 위상차도 $3-5^{\circ}$를 이루어 극저기압이 온난역의 저기압성 소용돌이도 이류 지역에서 발달할 수 있었다. 발달의 최성기에는 역학적 대류권계면이 700 hpa까지 하강하였고 위치소용돌이도의 증가로 상승기류도 강화되었다. 전반적으로 강설의 발생과 대류권계면의 파상운동과는 깊은 관련을 보였다. 극저기압이 한반도를 통과하는 동안 대류권계면이 하강하는 지점의 동쪽에 소용돌이도와 상승기류가 강화되었고 동시에 많은 습기가 이류되는 곳에서 강설량도 최대로 나타났다.