• 제목/요약/키워드: hazard-rate

검색결과 739건 처리시간 0.028초

채소류 중 발암성 농약의 위해성 평가 (Risk Assessment on Carcinogenic Pesticides of Vegetables in Korea)

  • 윤재홍;정용;신동천;이종태
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • 제32권2호
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    • pp.155-161
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    • 1999
  • Objectio ostinato the carcinogenic risks from the ingestion of some carcinogenic pesticides (CPs) in vegetables sampled at a local agricultural product market in Seoul. Methods: After applying a hazard identification step, we selected four pesticides, such as DDT, dieldrin, folpet, and heptachlor epoxide, for this risk assessment. Concentrations of each pesticide were measured from randomly sampled vegetables. In order to estimate the human exposure levels, we combined the concentration of pesticides in the vegetables with consumption rate of those vegetables. Three scenarios were hypothesized for human exposure assessment. Scenario I was the most conservative which supposed the undetected CPs would be the detection limit values. Scenario II was assumed that the undetected CPs would be a half of the detection limit values, and finally scenario III merely considered only values greater than the detection limit values. We finally presented the estimated carcinogenic risks on the basis of the traditional risk assessment procedure suggested by U.S. EPA. Results: Pesticides including DDT, dieldrin, folpet and heptachlor epoxide were detected in 9 samples (6%) in the range of $0.0006\sim0.09ppm$. The daily intake levels of carcinogenic pesticides were estimated in the range of $0.0009\sim0.0079{\mu}g/day$. As we expected, excess cancer risks based on scenario I was also the highest $(1.1\times10^{-8}\sim5.5\times10^{-5})$. Conclusions: We found that the estimated risks from the pesticides we investigated were not serious. We, however, propose that a continuos monitoring is needed to make sure for the protection of public health.

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한국 서해안 상괭이 (Neophocaena phocaenoides)의 분포와 풍도 (Distribution and Abundance of Finless Porpoise (Neophocaena phocaenoides) in the West Coast of Korea)

  • 장창익;박겸준;김장근;손호선
    • 한국수산과학회지
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    • 제37권2호
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    • pp.129-136
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    • 2004
  • Visual line-transect surveys for the finless porpoise (Neophocaena phocaenoides) were conducted in the offshore of the west coast of Korea (WCOK) from 18 April to 17 May 2001 $(34^{\circ}18'\;to\;37^{\circ}18'N,\;123^{\circ}00'\;to\;126^{\circ}00'E),$ and in the inshore of the west coast of Korea (WCIK) from 29 July to 2 August 2003 $(35^{\circ}17'\;to\;36^{\circ}17'N,\;126^{\circ}00'\;to\;126^{\circ}25'E).$ A total of transect survey efforts were 810.27 n.m. in 2001 and 216.09 n.m. in 2003, which cover a survey areas of $23,012\;n.m^2\;and\;1,550\;n.m^2,$ respectively. There were 76 and 24 sightings for the finless porpoise during the surveys in the WCOK (2001) and the WCIK (2003), respectively. More than $80\%$ of the finless porpoise occurred near the coast within 15 n.m. from the land. Porpoise were observed mainly in a depth range from 20 to 50 m $(78\%).$ Few porpoise were observed in a depth shallower than 10 m or deeper than 60 m. The hazard-rate model, truncated at the largest $5\%$ distance, showed the best fitting from the frequency distribution of perpendicular distance of the finless porpoise sighted from the trackline in the WCOK (2001), while the uniform model showed the best fitting from in the WCIK (2003). Abundance of finless porpoises were estimated to be 58,650 individuals ($95\%$ CI=34,961-98,389) in the WCOK (2001) and 1,571 individuals ($95\%$ CI=881-2,800) in the WCIK (2003), respectively.

한국 동해 밍크고래 Balaenoptera acutorostrata의 자원개체수 추정 (Abundance Estimates of the Minke Whale, Balaenoptera acutorostrata, in the East Sea, Korea)

  • 박겸준;안용락;김장근;최석관;문대연;박지은
    • 한국수산과학회지
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    • 제42권6호
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    • pp.642-649
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    • 2009
  • Line transect data from sighting surveys conducted in the East Sea, Korea in 2000, 2002, 2003, 2005 and 2006 were analysed to estimate densities and numbers of minke whale. The half-normal model was fit to the survey in 2000 and the uniform model was the most fitable to the survey in 2002 and 2006, and the surveys in 2003 and 2005 were fit by the hazard-rate model. The estimated density of minke whale in the survey in 2000 was estimated as 0.026 individuals/$km^2$ (CV=0.409; 95% CI 0.011-0.065) and was higher than the survey in 2002 estimated as 0.018 individuals/$km^2$ (CV=0.329; 95% CI: 0.009-0.034). The estimated density of minke whale in the survey in 2003 was estimated as 0.033 individuals/$km^2$ (95% CI: 0.008-0.139) with the highest CV 0.760. The highest density was estimated in the survey in 2005 with 0.053 individuals/$km^2$ (95% CI: 0.020-0.141). The Lowest CV (0.306) was estimated in the survey in 2006 with 0.025 individuals/$km^2$ (95% CI: 0.014-0.046). A total of 500 bootstrap samples were generated within each stratum. Density, CV and 95% CI of each surveys were increased than analytic results except the survey in 2003. There were no increasing or decreasing annual trends in the density of minke whales observed during the study period. A long-term monitor and survey is needed to assess project minke whale abundance in the East Sea.

Simultaneous Comparison of Efficacy and Adverse Events of Interventions for Patients with Esophageal Cancer: Protocol for a Systematic Review and Bayesian Network Meta-analysis

  • Doosti-Irani, Amin;Mansournia, Mohammad Ali;Rahimi-Foroushani, Abbas;Cheraghi, Zahra;Holakouie-Naieni, Kourosh
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제17권2호
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    • pp.867-872
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    • 2016
  • Background: Esophageal cancer is one of the most serious malignancies. Due to the aggressive nature of this cancer, the prognosis is poor. A network meta-analysis with simultaneous comparison of multiple treatments can help determine better treatment options that have higher effects on overall survival of patients with lower adverse events. The aim of this review is to simultaneously compare efficacy and adverse events of treatment interventions for esophageal cancer. Materials and Methods: In this review, only randomized control trials (RCT) will be considered for network meta-analysis. All international electronic databases including Medline, Web of Sciences, Scopus, Cochran's library, EMBASE and Cancerlit will be searched to find randomized control trials which compared two or more treatment interventions for esophageal cancer. A network plot will be drawn for visual representation of all available treatment interventions. Bayesian approach will be used to combine the direct and indirect evidence. Treatment effects (e.g. hazard ratio for time to event outcomes, risk ratio for binary outcomes, and rate ratio for count outcomes with 95% credible interval) will be reported. Moreover, cumulative probability of the treatment ranks will be reported using the surface under the cumulative ranking (SUCRA) graphs. Consistency assumption will be assessed by the loop-specific and design-by-treatment interaction approaches. Conclusions: The results of this study may be helpful for the patients, clinicians and health policy makers in selecting treatments that have the best effect on survival and lowest adverse events.

Prognostic Factors and the Role of Adjuvant Chemotherapy in Post-curative Surgery for Dukes B and C Colon Cancers and Survival Outcomes: a Malaysian Experience

  • Hassan, Astrid Sinarti;Naicker, Manimalar;Yusof, Khairul Hazdi;Ishak, Wan Zamaniah Wan
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제16권6호
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    • pp.2237-2243
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    • 2015
  • Background: Adjuvant chemotherapy improves survival in Dukes C colon cancers post-curative resection. However, the evidence for a role with Dukes B lesions remains unproven despite frequent use for disease characterized by poor prognostic features. In view of limited Asia-specific data, this study aimed to determine survival outcomes and identify prognostic factors in a tertiary teaching hospital in Malaysia. Materials and Methods: A total of 116 subjects who underwent curative surgery with and without adjuvant chemotherapy for Duke B and C primary colon adenocarcinomas diagnosed from 2004-2009 were recruited and data were collected retrospectively. Five-year overall survival (OS) and disease free survival (DFS) were analysed using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and log-rank (Mantel-Cox) test. Prognostic factors were determined using Cox proportional hazards regression with both univariate and multivariate analyses. Results: The survival analysis demonstrated a 5-year OS of 74.0% for all patients, with 74.9% for Dukes C subjects receiving chemotherapy compared to 28.6% in those not receiving chemotherapy (p=0.001). For Dukes B disease, the 5-year survival rate was 82.6% compared to 75.0% for subjects receiving and not receiving chemotherapy, respectively (p=0.17). Independent prognostic factors identified included a CEA level more than 3.5 ng/ml (hazard ratio (HR)=4.78; p=0.008), serosal involvement (HR=3.75; p=0.028) and completion of chemotherapy (HR= 0.20; p=0.007). Conclusions: In a regional context, this study supports current evidence from the West that adjuvant chemotherapy improves survival in Dukes C colon cancers post curative surgery. However, although a clear benefit has yet to be proven for Dukes B disease, our results suggest survival improvement in selected cases.

Elevated PIVKA-II is Associated with Early Recurrence and Poor Prognosis in BCLC 0-A Hepatocellular Carcinomas

  • Wang, Bei-Li;Tan, Qi-Wen;Gao, Xing-Hui;Wu, Jiong;Guo, Wei
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제15권16호
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    • pp.6673-6678
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    • 2014
  • Background: To investigate the prognostic value of serum PIVKA-II (prothrombin induced by the absence of vitamin K or antagonist-II) in BCLC (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer) 0-A hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients after curative resection. Materials and Methods: Preoperative sera were collected from 140 patients with BCLC 0-A HCCs undergoing curative resection during 2011-2012 in Zhongshan Hospital. Follow-up ended on November 2013. ELISA was used to detect the serum concentrations of preoperative PIVKA-II. The prognostic value of PIVKA-II and other clinicopathological factors was analyzed by the Kaplan-Meier method and the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. Results: During follow-up, 39 of 140 patients suffered recurrence and the 1-year recurrence rate was 27.9%. The high-PIVKA-II expression group had lower 1-year time to progression (TTP) compared with the low-expression group (54.8% vs 20.2%, p<0.001). Patients with high preoperative PIVKA-II expression showed a relatively higher risk of developing postoperative recurrence than those with low expression in the low-recurrence-risk subgroups, including ${\alpha}$-fetoprotein ${\leq}400ng/mL$ (45.4% vs 16.7%; p=0.006), tumor size ${\leq}5cm$ (54.2% vs 18.1%; p<0.001), single tumor (56.0% vs 19.1%; p<0.001), absence of satellite lesions (53.3% vs 19.8%; p=0.001), absence of vascular invasion (52.6% vs 14.9%; p=0.002), and Edmondson stage I/II (60.9% vs 20.3%; p<0.001). PIVKA-II was the strongest independent prognostic factor for TTP (hazard ratio, 2.877; 95% CI 1.524-5.429; p=0.001). Conclusions: Elevated PIVKA-II is associated with early recurrence of BCLC 0-A HCC after curative resection and can be considered a novel prognostic predictor.

Five Year Survival of Women with Breast Cancer in Yazd

  • Fallahzadeh, Hossein;Momayyezi, Mahdieh;Akhundzardeini, Razie;Zarezardeini, Sadegh
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제15권16호
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    • pp.6597-6601
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    • 2014
  • Background: Cancer is a non-communicable disease that is considered deadly in many cases. In recent years, the mortality rates from breast cancer have increased with increasing incidences. The present study was conducted to determine five year survival of women with breast cancer in Yazd, in the central region of Iran. Materials and Methods: In a prospective study, data were obtained from the patient's medical records with breast cancer that were referred to the Shahid Sadoughi hospital and radiotherapy center from 2002-2007 and followed up for 5 years. The data collected were analyzed by SPSS/16 and Kaplan-Meyer test and log-rank test and Cox proportional hazard model was used. Results: The mean age of breast cancer diagnosis was $48.3{\pm}11.7$ years. The 1-, 2-, 3-, 4- and 5-year cumulative survivals for breast cancer patients were 95%, 86%, 82%, 76% and 70%, respectively. There were significant differences with age distribution (p=0.006). A significant decrease in the 5-year survival in patients with involvement of lymph nodes was lso observed. Conclusions: Education for early diagnosis in women must be considered and these findings support the need for breast cancer screening programs.

밀폐계 가연성 목재분진의 폭발에너지와 산소소모율에 관한 연구 - Part I: 폭발에너지의 정량화 및 폭발효율 (A Study on the Oxygen Consumption Rate and Explosion Energy of Combustible Wood Dust in Confined System - Part I: Quantification of Explosion Energy and Explosive Efficiency)

  • 김윤석;이민철;이근원;이동호
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제31권4호
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    • pp.55-63
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    • 2016
  • A dust explosion is a phenomenon of strong blast wave propagation involving destruction which results from dust pyrolysis and rapid oxidation in a confined space. There has been some research done to find individual explosion characteristics and common physical laws for various dust types. However, there has been insufficient number of studies related to the heat of combustion of materials and the oxygen consumption energy about materials in respect of dust explosion characteristics. The present study focuses on the relationship between dust explosion characteristics of wood dust samples and oxygen consumption energy. Since it is difficult to estimate the weight of suspended dust participating in explosions in dust explosion and mixtures are in fuel-rich conditions concentrations with equivalent ratios exceeding 1, methods for estimating explosion overpressure by applying oxygen consumption energy based on unit volume air at standard atmospheric pressure and temperature are proposed. In this study an oxygen consumption energy model for dust explosion is developed, and by applying this model to TNT equivalent model, initial explosion efficiency was calculated by comparing the results of standardized dust explosion experiments.

Risk Assessment of Exposure to Silica Dust in Building Demolition Sites

  • Normohammadi, Mohammad;Kakooei, Hossein;Omidi, Leila;Yari, Saeed;Alimi, Rasul
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • 제7권3호
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    • pp.251-255
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    • 2016
  • Background: Building demolition can lead to emission of dust into the environment. Exposure to silica dust may be considered as an important hazard in these sites. The objectives of this research were to determine the amount of workers' exposure to crystalline silica dust and assess the relative risk of silicosis and the excess lifetime risk of mortality from lung cancer in demolition workers. Methods: Four sites in the Tehran megacity region were selected. Silica dust was collected using the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health method 7601 and determined spectrophotometrically. The Mannetje et al and Rice et al models were chosen to examine the rate of silicosis-related mortality and the excess lifetime risk of mortality from lung cancer, respectively. Results: The amount of demolition workers' exposure was in the range of $0.085-0.185mg/m^3$. The range of relative risk of silicosis related mortality was increased from 1 in the workers with the lowest exposure level to 22.64/1,000 in the employees with high exposure level. The range of the excess lifetime risk of mortality from lung cancer was in the range of 32-60/1,000 exposed workers. Conclusion: Geometric and arithmetic mean of exposure was higher than threshold limit value for silica dust in all demolition sites. The risk of silicosis mortality for many demolition workers was higher than 1/1,000 (unacceptable level of risk). Estimating the lifetime lung cancer mortality showed a higher risk of mortality from lung cancer in building demolition workers.

재정사업과 민간투자사업의 하수처리장 하수유입률 특성분석 (Comparing the Inflow Rate of Sewage Treatment Plants Invested by the Public Funds or Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Projects)

  • 이원석;조은주;손영규;김지형
    • 한국물환경학회지
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    • 제25권5호
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    • pp.778-784
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this study is to figure out the differences of the inflow rates of Sewage Treatment Plants (STP), invested by public fund or public-private partnership (PPP). This paper finds that the average ratio of sewage inflow according to facility capacities (medium and small scale STP) was either nearly below 30% or above 100% in the first year. As the size of STP increased, there was decrease in the accuracy of demand assumption. This was because the operation time when the ratio of sewage inflow was uniform was different according to the size of STP, whereby the time was short when the STP were small. The design average ratio of sewage inflow was 10% larger than the real average ratio; this was considered overdesigned. In the case of a plant built by the PPP scheme, the average ratio of inflow of the STP before an abolition of MRG was larger than after the abolition of MRG. This may be explained by moral hazard from too much reliance on MRG. After the abolition of MRG, the demand risk of PPP was shifted from a PPP project to a conventional project.