• Title/Summary/Keyword: hazard susceptibility

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Life Risk Assessment of Landslide Disaster Using Spatial Prediction Model (공간 예측 모델을 이용한 산사태 재해의 인명 위험평가)

  • Jang, Dong-Ho;Chung, C.F.
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.373-383
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    • 2006
  • The spatial mapping of risk is very useful data in planning for disaster preparedness. This research presents a methodology for making the landslide life risk map in the Boeun area which had considerable landslide damage following heavy rain in August, 1998. We have developed a three-stage procedure in spatial data analysis not only to estimate the probability of the occurrence of the natural hazardous events but also to evaluate the uncertainty of the estimators of that probability. The three-stage procedure consists of: (i)construction of a hazard prediction map of "future" hazardous events; (ii) validation of prediction results and estimation of the probability of occurrence for each predicted hazard level; and (iii) generation of risk maps with the introduction of human life factors representing assumed or established vulnerability levels by combining the prediction map in the first stage and the estimated probabilities in the second stage with human life data. The significance of the landslide susceptibility map was evaluated by computing a prediction rate curve. It is used that the Bayesian prediction model and the case study results (the landslide susceptibility map and prediction rate curve) can be prepared for prevention of future landslide life risk map. Data from the Bayesian model-based landslide susceptibility map and prediction ratio curves were used together with human rife data to draft future landslide life risk maps. Results reveal that individual pixels had low risks, but the total risk death toll was estimated at 3.14 people. In particular, the dangerous areas involving an estimated 1/100 people were shown to have the highest risk among all research-target areas. Three people were killed in this area when landslides occurred in 1998. Thus, this risk map can deliver factual damage situation prediction to policy decision-makers, and subsequently can be used as useful data in preventing disasters. In particular, drafting of maps on landslide risk in various steps will enable one to forecast the occurrence of disasters.

Life Risk Assessment of Landslide Disaster in Jinbu Area Using Logistic Regression Model (로지스틱 회귀분석모델을 활용한 평창군 진부 지역의 산사태 재해의 인명 위험 평가)

  • Rahnuma, Bintae Rashid Urmi;Al, Mamun;Jang, Dong-Ho
    • Journal of The Geomorphological Association of Korea
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.65-80
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    • 2020
  • This paper deals with risk assessment of life in a landslide-prone area by a GIS-based modeling method. Landslide susceptibility maps can provide a probability of landslide prone areas to mitigate or proper control this problems and to take any development plan and disaster management. A landslide inventory map of the study area was prepared based on past historical information and aerial photography analysis. A total of 550 landslides have been counted at the whole study area. The extracted landslides were randomly selected and divided into two different groups, 50% of the landslides were used for model calibration and the other were used for validation purpose. Eleven causative factors (continuous and thematic) such as slope, aspect, curvature, topographic wetness index, elevation, forest type, forest crown density, geology, land-use, soil drainage, and soil texture were used in hazard analysis. The correlation between landslides and these factors, pixels were divided into several classes and frequency ratio was also extracted. Eventually, a landslide susceptibility map was constructed using a logistic regression model based on entire events. Moreover, the landslide susceptibility map was plotted with a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calculated the area under the curve (AUC) and tried to extract a success rate curve. Based on the results, logistic regression produced an 85.18% accuracy, so we believed that the model was reliable and acceptable for the landslide susceptibility analysis on the study area. In addition, for risk assessment, vulnerability scale were added for social thematic data layer. The study area predictive landslide affected pixels 2,000 and 5,000 were also calculated for making a probability table. In final calculation, the 2,000 predictive landslide affected pixels were assumed to run. The total population causalities were estimated as 7.75 person that was relatively close to the actual number published in Korean Annual Disaster Report, 2006.

PRODUCTION OF GROUND SUBSIDENCE SUSCEPTIBILITY MAP AT ABANDONED UNDERGROUND COAL MINE USING FUZZY LOGIC

  • Choi, Jong-Kuk;Kim, Ki-Dong
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • v.2
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    • pp.717-720
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    • 2006
  • In this study, we predicted locations vulnerable to ground subsidence hazard using fuzzy logic and geographic information system (GIS). Test was carried out at an abandoned underground coal mine in Samcheok City, Korea. Estimation of relative ratings of eight major factors influencing subsidence and determination of effective fuzzy operators are presented. Eight major factors causing ground subsidence were extracted and constructed as a spatial database using the spatial analysis and the probability analysis functions. The eight factors include geology, slope, landuse, depth of mined tunnel, distance from mined tunnel, RMR, permeability, and depth of ground water. A frequency ratio model was applied to calculate relative rating of each factor, and the ratings were integrated using fuzzy membership function and five different fuzzy operators to produce a ground subsidence susceptibility map. The ground subsidence susceptibility map was verified by comparing it with the existing ground subsidences. The obtained susceptibility map well agreed with the actual ground subsidence areas. Especially, ${\gamma}-operator$ and algebraic product operator were the most effective among the tested fuzzy operators.

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GIS Based Sinkhole Susceptibility Analysisin Karst Terrain: A Case Study of Samcheok-si (GIS를 활용한 카르스트 지역의 싱크홀 민감성 분석: 삼척시를 중심으로)

  • Ahn, Sejin;Sung, Hyo Hyun
    • Journal of The Geomorphological Association of Korea
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.75-89
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    • 2017
  • Sinkholes are key karst landforms that primarily evolve through the dissolution of limestone, and it posing a significant threat to roads, buildings, and other man-made structures. This study aims to analyze the area susceptible to sinkhole development using GIS and to identify potential danger area from sinkholes. Eight sinkhole related factors (slope angle, distance to caves, distance to faults, bedrock lithology, soil depth, drainage class, distance to mines, and distance to traffic routes) were constructed as spatial databases with sinkhole inventory. Based on the spatial database, sinkhole susceptibility maps were produced using nearest neighbor distance and frequency ratio models. The maps were verified with prediction rate curve and area under curve. The result indicates that the nearest neighbor distance and frequency ratio models predicted 95.3% and 94.4% of possible sinkhole locations respectively. Furthermore, to identify potential sinkhole danger area, the susceptibility map was compared with population distribution and land use map. It has been found that very highly susceptible areas are along Osipcheon and southeast southwest part of Hajang-myeon and south part of Gagok-myeon of Samcheok-si. Among those areas, it has been identified that potential sinkhole danger areas are Gyo-dong, Seongnae-dong, Jeongna-dong, Namyang-dong and Dogye-eup. These results can be useful in the aspects of land use planning and hazard prevention and management.

Current and Future Status of GIS-based Landslide Susceptibility Mapping: A Literature Review

  • Lee, Saro
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.179-193
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    • 2019
  • Landslides are one of the most damaging geological hazards worldwide, threating both humans and property. Hence, there have been many efforts to prevent landslides and mitigate the damage that they cause. Among such efforts, there have been many studies on mapping landslide susceptibility. Geographic information system (GIS)-based techniques have been developed and applied widely, and are now the main tools used to map landslide susceptibility. We reviewed the status of landslide susceptibility mapping using GIS by number of papers, year, study area, number of landslides, cause, and models applied, based on 776 articles over the last 20 years (1999-2018). The number of studies published annually increased rapidly over time. The total study area spanned 65 countries, and 47.7% of study areas were in China, India, South Korea, and Iran, where more than 500 landslides, 27.3% of all landslides, have occurred. Slope (97.6% of total articles) and geology (82.7% of total articles) were most often implicated as causes, and logistic regression (26.9% of total articles) and frequency ratio (24.7% of total article) models were the most widely used models. We analyzed trends in the causes of and models used to simulate landslides. The main causes were similar each year, but machine learning models have increased in popularity over time. In the future, more study areas should be investigated to improve the generalizability and accuracy of the results. Furthermore, more causes, especially those related to topography and soil, should be considered and more machine learning models should be applied. Finally, landslide hazard and risk maps should be studied in addition to landslide susceptibility maps.

APPLICATION OF LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL AND ITS VALIDATION FOR LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY MAPPING USING GIS AND REMOTE SENSING DATA AT PENANG, MALAYSIA

  • LEE SARO
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2004.10a
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    • pp.310-313
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    • 2004
  • The aim of this study is to evaluate the hazard of landslides at Penang, Malaysia, using a Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing. Landslide locations were identified in the study area from interpretation of aerial photographs and from field surveys. Topographical and geological data and satellite images were collected, processed, and constructed into a spatial database using GIS and image processing. The factors chosen that influence landslide occurrence were: topographic slope, topographic aspect, topographic curvature and distance from drainage, all from the topographic database; lithology and distance from lineament, taken from the geologic database; land use from TM satellite images; and the vegetation index value from SPOT satellite images. Landslide hazardous area were analysed and mapped using the landslide-occurrence factors by logistic regression model. The results of the analysis were verified using the landslide location data and compared with probabilistic model. The validation results showed that the logistic regression model is better prediction accuracy than probabilistic model.

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APPLICATION OF LIKELIHOOD RATIO MODEL FOR LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY MAPPING USING GIS AT LAI CHAU, VIETNAM

  • LEE SARO;DAN NGUYEN TU
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2004.10a
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    • pp.314-317
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    • 2004
  • The aim of this study was to evaluate the susceptibility from landslides in the Lai Chau region of Vietnam, using Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing data, focusing on the relationship between tectonic fractures and landslides. Landslide locations were identified from an interpretation of aerial photographs and field surveys. Topographic and geological data and satellite images were collected, processed, and constructed into a spatial database using GIS data and image processing techniques, and a scheme of the tectonic fracturing of the crust in the Lai Chau region was established. In this scheme, Lai Chau was identified as a region with low crustal fractures, with the grade of tectonic fracture having a close relationship with landslide occurrence. The factors found to influence landslide occurrence were: topographic slope, topographic aspect, topographic curvature, distance from drainage, lithology, distance from a tectonic fracture and land cover. Landslide prone areas were analyzed and mapped using the landslide occurrence factors employing the probability-likelihood ratio method. The results of the analysis were verified using landslide location data, and these showed a satisfactory agreement between the hazard map and existing landslide location data.

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Application of a weight-of-evidence model to landslide susceptibility analysis Boeun, Korea

  • Moung-Jin, Lee;Yu, Young-Tae
    • Proceedings of the Korean Association of Geographic Inforamtion Studies Conference
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    • 2003.04a
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    • pp.65-70
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    • 2003
  • The weight-of-evidence model one of the Bayesian probability model was applied to the task of evaluating landslide susceptibility using GIS. Using the location of the landslides and spatial database such as topography, soil, forest, geology, land use and lineament, the weight-of-evidence model was applied to calculate each factor's rating at Boun area in Korea where suffered substantial landslide damage fellowing heavy rain in 1998, The factors are slope, aspect and curvature from the topographic database, soil texture, soil material, soil drainage, soil effective thickness, and topographic type from the soil database, forest type, timber diameter, timber age and forest density from the forest map, lithology from the geological database, land use from Landsat TM satellite image and lineament from IRS satellite image. Tests of conditional independence were performed for the selection of the factors, allowing the 43 combinations of factors to be analyzed. For the analysis, the contrast value, W$\^$+/and W$\^$-/, as each factor's rating, were overlaid to map laudslide susceptibility. The results of the analysis were validated using the observed landslide locations, and among the combinations, the combination of slope, curvature, topographic, timber diameter, geology and lineament show the best results. The results can be used for hazard prevention and planning land use and construction

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Case Study on the Hazard Susceptibility Prediction of Debris Flows using Surface Water Concentration Analysis and the Distinct Element Method (수계 집중도 분석 및 개별요소법을 이용한 토석류 위험도 예측 사례 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-Hyun;Kim, Seung-Hyun;Ryu, Sang-Hoon;Koo, Ho-Bon;Kim, Sung-Wook
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.283-291
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    • 2012
  • Various studies regarding the prediction of landslides are underway internationally. Research into disaster prevention with regard to debris flows is a particular focus of research because this type of landslide can cause enormous damage over a short period. The objective of this study is to determine the hazard susceptibility of debris flow via predictions of surface water concentrations based on the concept that a debris flow is similar to a surface water flow, as it is influenced by mountain topography. This study considered urban areas affected by large debris flows or landslides. Digital mapping (including the slope and upslope contributing areas) and the wetness index were used to determine the relevant topographic factors and the hydrology of the area. We determined the hazard susceptibility of debris flow by predicting the surface water concentration based on the topography of the surrounding mountainous terrain. Results obtained using the distinct element method were used to derive a correlation equation between the weight and the impact force of the debris flow. We consider that in using a correlation equation, this method could assist in the effective installation of debris-flow-prevention structures.

Evaluation on Risk Assessment for Landslide Hazard of Soil Slope Using the Checklists as a Preliminary Investigation Method (점검표를 이용한 토질사면 산사태 예비조사 방법 평가)

  • Kim, Jae Min;Choi, Jung Chan
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.177-185
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    • 2015
  • The objective of this study is to evaluate landslide hazard susceptibility and produce the landslide hazard maps for soil slope using checklists as a preliminary investigation method. Tables, proposed by NDMI (National Disaster Management Institute), are applied for slope stability assessment, and are comprised of checklists on soil slopes. Database including engineering properties of soil is constructed through the field survey and results from previous studies for The Mt. Hwangryoeng area at center of Busan. All data related to creating the thematic maps was carried out using ArcGIS 10.0. Results from using this method indicated that soil slope are evaluated from very stable to stable. Moderate stability has been partially presented along the edge of mountain. Results from landslide hazard maps can be used to prevent damage from landslides and facilitate appropriate land use planning.