Catastrophe risk models require the damage functions of each vulnerable item in inventory to estimate volcanic ash losses. The damage functions are used to represent the relation between damage factors and damage and also widely used in engineering and natural hazard studies to calculate the vulnerability. In most cases, damage functions are constructed as fragility or vulnerability curves, and researchers are confused by the similarities between them particularly when they perform interdisciplinary research. Thus, we aim to explain the similarities and differences between fragility and vulnerability curves and their relationship by providing case studies to construct them. In addition, we suggest a simple method to construct the damage functions between damage ratio and volcanic ash thickness using limited damage data. This study comes from the fact that damage functions are generally constructed using damage data. However, there is no available volcanic ash damage data in Korea, and not even enough volcanic disaster data to construct damage functions in the world, compared to other hazards. Using the method suggested in the study and the limited damage data from Japan and New Zealand, we construct Weibull-type functions or linear functions dependent of available data to calculate volcanic ash loss estimation, which we think need to be corrected to make it more suitable for inventory characteristics and environmental conditions in Korea.
Shin, Chol;Kwack, KyuBum;Cho, Nam H.;Kim, Seong Hwan;Baik, Inkyung
Nutrition Research and Practice
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v.9
no.1
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pp.79-86
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2015
BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: It is well-known that alcohol consumption is associated with stroke risk as well as with aldehyde dehydrogenase 2 gene (ALDH2) polymorphisms. However, it is unclear whether ALDH2 polymorphisms are associated with stroke risk independent of alcohol consumption and whether such association is modified by sex. We evaluated sex-specific associations of a common ALDH2 polymorphism and alcohol consumption with stroke risk in a Korean population. SUBJECTS/METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study involving 8,465 men and women, aged 40-69 years and free of stroke between June, 2001 and January, 2003, and followed for the development of stroke. We identified new cases of stroke, which were self-reported or ascertained from vital registration data. Based on genome-wide association data, we selected a single-nucleotide polymorphism (rs2074356), which shows high linkage disequilibrium with the functional polymorphism of ALDH2. We conducted Cox proportional hazards regression analysis considering potential risk factors collected from a baseline questionnaire. RESULTS: Over the median follow-up of 8 years, 121 cases of stroke were identified. Carrying the wild-type allele of the ALDH2 polymorphism increased stroke risk among men. The multivariate hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] of stroke was 2.02 [1.03-3.99] for the wild-type allele compared with the mutant alleles, but the association was attenuated after controlling for alcohol consumption. Combinations of the wild-type allele and other risk factors of stroke, such as old age, diabetes mellitus, and habitual snoring, synergistically increased the risk among men. Among women, however, the ALDH2 polymorphism was not associated with stroke risk. CONCLUSIONS: The prospective cohort study showed a significant association between a common ALDH2 polymorphism and stroke risk in Korean men, but not in Korean women, and also demonstrated that men with genetic disadvantages gain more risk when having risk factors of stroke. Thus, these men may need to make more concerted efforts to control modifiable risk factors of stroke.
Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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v.62
no.2
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pp.63-73
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2020
Drought is considered as a devastating hazard that causes serious agricultural, ecological and socio-economic impacts worldwide. Fundamentally, the drought can be defined as temporarily different levels of inadequate precipitation, soil moisture, and water supply relative to the long-term average conditions. From no unified definition of droughts, droughts have been divided into different severity level, i.e., moderate drought, severe drought, extreme drought and exceptional drought. The drought severity classification defined the ranges for each indicator for each dryness level. Because the ranges of the various indicators often don't coincide, the final drought category tends to be based on what the majority of the indicators show and on local observations. Evaporative Stress Index (ESI), a satellite-based drought index using the ratio of potential and actual evaporation, is being used as a index of the droughts occurring rapidly in a short period of time from studies showing a more sensitive and fast response to drought compared to Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). However, ESI is difficult to provide an objective drought assessment because it does not have clear drought severity classification criteria. In this study, U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), the standard for drought determination used in the United States, was applied to ESI, and the Percentile method was used to classify drought categories by severity. Regarding the actual 2017 drought event in South Korea, we compare the spatial distribution of drought area and understand the USDM-based ESI by comparing the results of Standardized Groundwater level Index (SGI) and drought impact information. These results demonstrated that the USDM-based ESI could be an effective tool to provide objective drought conditions to inform management decisions for drought policy.
Aluminium based inorganic flocculants are extensively used in this country in the removal of fine particles present in the raw water for the production of drinking water. These inorganic flocculants, however, have potential hazard of high residual aluminium ions in the treated waters, which is known to be one of the reasons of alzheimer's disease. Inorganic flocculants alone are sometimes incapable of treating water when there are excessive turbidity in the raw water sources due to flooding. A polyamine type polymeric flocculant has long been used to treat raw water in the drinking water production in the European countries and United State of America. The optimum reaction conditions such as mole ratio of epichlorohydrin(EPI) to dimethylamine(DMA), reaction temperature and time for each stage for the pilot scale preparation of polyamine from EPI-DMA was studied in this work. The variation of intrinsic viscosity and flocculating efficiency in the water treatment of the synthesized polyamines were evaluated. The residual materials after polymerization reaction were analyzed by gas chromatography to study the effect of variation of reaction conditions.
Background: High-dose methotrexate (HD-MTX) is recognized as an efficient component of therapy against pediatric osteosarcoma in combination with other drugs such as cisplatin (CDP), carboplatin (CBDCA), doxorubicin (ADM), etoposide (VP-16) and ifosfamide (IFO). Objectives: To demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the HD-MTX/CDP/DOX/VP-16/IFO [MTX(+)] protocol comparable to CDP/ADM/CBDCA/IFO [MTX(-)] for treating childhood osteosarcoma at Ramathibodi Hospital (1999-2014). Materials and Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted of osteosarcoma patients aged less than 18 years treated with two chemotherapeutic regimens between 1999 and 2014. A total of 45 patients received the MTX(-) and 21 the MTX(+) protocol. Results: Overall limb-salvage and amputation rate were 12.9% and 77.7%, respectively. Kaplan-Meier analysis results for 3-year disease free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) regardless of treatment regimens were $43.4{\pm}6.0%$ and $53.2{\pm}6.1%$ respectively. The 3-year DFS and OS were improved significantly with the MTX(+) protocol compared to MTX(-) protocol (p=0.010 and p=0.009, log rank test) [$69.8{\pm}10.5%$, $79.8{\pm}9.1%$ for MTX(+) and $31.1{\pm}6.9%$, $42.2{\pm}7.4%$ for MTX(-) protocol, respectively]. Patients with metastatic osteosarcoma treated with the MTX(+) protocol had statistically significant higher 3-year DFS and OS than those treated with the MTX(-) protocol ($66.7{\pm}13.6%$ and $15.0{\pm}8.0%$ for 3-year DFS, p=0.010, $73.3{\pm}13.2%$ and $20{\pm}8.9%$ for 3-year OS, p=0.006, respectively). The independent risk factors for having inferior 3-year DFS and OS were poor histological response (tumor necrosis <90%) and treatment with the MTX(-) protocol. The multivariate analysis identified only the treatment with the MTX(-) protocol as an independent predictor of inferior OS with a hazard ratio (HR) of 3.53 (95% confidence interval of 1.2-10.41, p=0.022). Conclusions: Our study demonstrated the tolerability, feasibility and efficacy of the HDMTX-based regimen improving the survival rate in pediatric osteosarcoma cases, in line with reports from developed countries.
Background: It is well known that peritoneal carcinomatosis (PC) from colorectal cancer (CRC) is associated with a poor prognosis. However, data on the prognostic significance of modern chemotherapy containing bevacizumab, cetuximab or panitumumab are not available. Materials and Methods: This retrospective review concerned 526 patients with metastatic CRC who were classified into two groups according to the presence or absence of PC, and were treated with systemic chemotherapy, with or without bevacizumab or anti-EGFR antibodies. The genetic background, in particular KRAS, BRAF, and PIK3CA gene mutations, and overall survival (OS) were compared between the two groups. Results: The median OS values were 23.3 and 29.1 months for PC and non-PC patients, respectively (hazard ratio [HR]=1.20; p=0.17). Among all patients, tumor location, number of metastatic sites and BRAF mutation status were significant prognostic factors, whereas the presence of PC was not. In the PC group, chemotherapy with bevacizumab resulted in a significantly longer OS than forchemotherapy without bevacizumab (HR=0.38, p<0.01), but this was not the case in the non-PC group (HR=0.80, p=0.10). Furthermore, the incidence of the BRAF V600E mutation was significantly higher in PC than in non-PC patients (27.7% versus 7.3%, p<0.01). BRAF mutations displayed a strong correlation with shorter OS in non-PC (HR=2.26), but not PC patients (HR=1.04). Conclusions: Systemic chemotherapy, especially when combined with bevacizumab, improved survival in patients with PC from CRC as well as non-PC patients. While BRAF mutation demonstrated a high frequency in PC patients, but it was not associated with prognosis.
Background: The aim of our study was to assess the practical utility of the palliative prognostic index (PPI) as a prognostic tool used by nurse specialists in a hospice consultation setting in Taiwan. Methods: In total, 623 terminal cancer patients under hospice consultation care from one medical center in northern Taiwan were enrolled between January 1 and June 30, 2011. PPI was assessed by a nurse specialist at first hospice consultation and patients categorized into groups by prognosis (good, intermediate, poor). Patient survival was analyzed retrospectively to determine significance of between-group differences. Results: By PPI sum score, 37.2% of patients were in the good prognosis group, 18% in the intermediate prognosis group and 44.8% in the poor prognosis group. The death rates were 56%, 81.2% and 89.6% and median survivals were 76, 18 and 7 days, respectively. The hazard ratio was 0.19 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.10-0.24, p<0.001) for the poor versus good prognosis group and 0.54 (95% CI 0.43-0.69, p<0.001) for the poor versus intermediate prognosis group. The sensitivity and specificity for the poor prognosis group was 66% and 71%; the positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 81% and 52%, respectively, to predict patient death within 21 days (area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic was 0.68). Conclusions: Assessment by PPI can accurately predict survival of terminal cancer patients receiving hospice consultation care. PPI is a simple tool and can be administered by nurse members of hospice consultation teams.
Although correlations between platelets and lung cancer has been recognized, effects on non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) metastasis remain to be determined in detail. In the present study, wound healing assays revealed a role of platelets in NSCLC cell migration. Thus the mean migration rate of lung adenocarcinoma A549 cells was significantly elevated after co-culture with platelets ($81.7{\pm}0.45%$ vs $41.0{\pm}3.50%$, P<0.01). Expression of GAPDH was examined by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction to study the effect of platelets on NSCLC cell proliferation. The result showed that the proliferation of A549 and SPC-A1 cells was not affected. Mouse models were established by transfusing A549 cells and SPC-A1 cells into mice lateral tail veins. We found tumor metastasis nodules in lungs to be increased significantly after co-transfusion with platelets (in A549, $4.33{\pm}0.33$ vs $0.33{\pm}0.33$, P=0.01; in SPC-A1, $2.67{\pm}0.33$ vs $0.00{\pm}0.00$, P=0.01). In addition, consecutive inoperable patients with newly diagnosed NSCLC (TNM stage III or IV) between January 2009 and December 2011 were retrospectively reviewed. Using the Kaplan-Meier method, NSCLC patients with a high platelet counts demonstrated a significantly shorter progression free survival compared with those with a low platelet count (> $200{\times}10^9/L$, 3 months versus ${\leq}200{\times}10^9/L$, 5 months, P=0.001). An elevated platelet count was also identified as an independent prognostic factor by Cox regression analysis for prgression free survival (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.69; 95% CI: 1.16, 2.46; P=0.006). This study suggested that platelets might contribute to the hematogenous metastatic process by promoting cancer cell migration, which eventually affects the prognosis of NSCLC.
Background: Solid cancers with bone marrow metastases are rare but lethal. This study aimed to identify clinical factors predictive of survival in adult patients with solid cancers and bone marrow metastases. Methods: A total of 83 patients were enrolled consecutively between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2012. Bone marrow metastases were confirmed by biopsies. Patient clinical features and laboratory data were analyzed for associations. Results: The median age of the patients was 54 years (range, 23-88 years), and 58% were male. The 3 most common primary tumor locations were the stomach (32 patients, 39%), prostate (16 patients, 19%), and lungs (12 patients, 15%). The median overall survival was 49 days (range, 3-1423 days). Patients with Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status 1, cancers of prostate origin, platelet counts over 50,000/ml, and undergoing antitumor therapies had a significantly better prognosis in the multivariate analysis. The median survival times were 173 and 33 days for patients with 2-3 more favorable parameters (n=24) and those with 0-1 (n=69), respectively (hazard ratio 0.30; 95% CI 0.17-0.52, p<0.001). Conclusions: Solid cancers with bone marrow metastases are dismal and incurable diseases. Understanding prognostic factors to these diseases helps medical personnel to provide appropriate treatments and better inform patients about outcomes. Antitumor therapies may improve outcomes in selected patient cohorts.
Background: The predictive value of the xeroderma pigmentosum group D (XPD) Lys751Gln polymorphism regarding clinical outcomes of patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) receiving oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy has been evaluated in numerous published studies, but the results remain inconclusive. Therefore, we performed a meta-analysis to determine the precise role of the XPD Lys751Gln polymorphism in this clinical situation and optimize individual chemotherapy. Materials and Methods: A multiple search strategy was used to identify eligible studies. Pooled odds ratios (ORs), generalized odds ratio (ORG) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to estimate the objective response, while hazard ratios (HRs) with 95%CIs were used for progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Results: A total of 17 studies including 2,286 patients met the inclusion criteria. Overall, the XPD 751Gln allele was associated with a non-significant reduced objective response to oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy in all patients or in the Asian and Caucasian subgroups. However, poor PFS and OS of CRC patients treated with oxaliplatin-based regimens were significantly related to the XPD 751Gln allele in the dominant model (PFS: HR=2.10, 95%CI: 1.65-2.67; OS: HR=3.18, 95%CI: 1.57-6.47). On stratified analysis by ethnicity, these relationships were more pronounced in Asians (PFS: HR=2.49, 95%CI: 1.79-3.47; OS: HR=5.25, 95%CI: 3.46-7.94) than in Caucasians (PFS: HR=1.73, 95%CI: 1.22-2.46; OS: HR=1.78, 95%CI: 1.06-2.99). Conclusions: The XPD Lys751Gln polymorphism may have prognostic value in patients with CRC undergoing oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy.
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