• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.52-61
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• 2016

The purpose of the study was to create a probabilistic seismic hazard map using the input data that reflected the seismo-tectonic characteristics of the Korean Peninsula by applying USGS program (Harmsen (2008). The program was partly modified for the purpose of this study. The uncertainty of input parameters given by specialists was reflected in calculating the seismic hazard values by logic tree method. The general pattern of PGA was quite sensitive and similar to the shape of areal source. The probabilistic seismic hazard map showed the contour distribution of peak acceleration (%g) with 10% probability of exceedance in 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 250, and 500 years. The result showed that the peak ground acceleration (PGA) values of the northern peninsula were almost half values of the southern peninsula except Hwanghae province. The general trend of the hazard map extended in the direction of NW-SE from Whanghae province to south-eastern regions of the peninsula. The values in northern part of Kangwon province were relatively lower than other areas in the southern peninsula. The maps produced through this study are considered valuable in regulating the seismic safety of the major facilities in the Korean Peninsula.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.40 no.3 s.184
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• pp.295-306
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• 2007

In this study, we predicted areas vulnerable to ground subsidence near abandoned underground coal mine at Sam-cheok City in Korea using a probability (frequency ratio) model with Geographic Information System (GIS). To extract the factors related to ground subsidence, a spatial database was constructed from a topographical map, geo-logical map, mining tunnel map, land characteristic map, and borehole data on the study area including subsidence sites surveyed in 2000. Eight major factors were extracted from the spatial analysis and the probability analysis of the surveyed ground subsidence sites. We have calculated the decision coefficient ($R^2$) to find out the relationship between eight factors and the occurrence of ground subsidence. The frequency ratio model was applied to deter-mine each factor's relative rating, then the ratings were overlaid for ground subsidence hazard mapping. The ground subsidence hazard map was then verified and compared with the surveyed ground subsidence sites. The results of verification showed high accuracy of 96.05% between the predicted hazard map and the actual ground subsidence sites. Therefore, the quantitative analysis of ground subsidence near abandoned underground coal mine would be possible with a frequency ratio model and a GIS.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.57 no.2
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• pp.155-163
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• 2008

This paper presents a novel framework for analysis of power system wide-area blackout based on so called fault cascading scenarios. For a given power system operating state, "triggering" faults or a "seed faults" are chosen based on the probabilities estimated from the hazard rates. The fault probabilities reflect both the load and the weather conditions. Effects of hidden failures in protection systems are also reflected in establishing the fault propagation scenarios since they are one of the major causes for the wide-area blackouts. A tree type data structure called a PS-BEST(Power System Blackout Event Scenario Tree) is proposed for construction of the fault cascading scenarios, in which nodes represent various power system operating states and the arcs are the events causing transitions between the states. Arcs can be either probabilistic or deterministic. For a given initial fault, the total probability of leading to wide-area blackout is estimated by aggregating the individual probability of each fault sequence route leading to wide-area blackout. A case study is performed on the IEEE RTS-79(24 bus) system based on the fault data presented by the North American Electrical Reliability Council(NERC). Test results demonstrate the potentials and the effectiveness of the proposed technique for the future wide-area blackout analysis.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.46 no.5
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• pp.699-706
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• 2014

The probabilistic seismic performance of a standard Korean nuclear power plant (NPP) with an idealized isolation is investigated in the present work. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of the Wolsong site on the Korean peninsula is performed by considering peak ground acceleration (PGA) as an earthquake intensity measure. A procedure is reported on the categorization and selection of two sets of ground motions of the Tohoku earthquake, i.e. long-period and common as Set A and Set B respectively, for the nonlinear time history response analysis of the base-isolated NPP. Limit state values as multiples of the displacement responses of the NPP base isolation are considered for the fragility estimation. The seismic risk of the NPP is further assessed by incorporation of the rate of frequency exceedance and conditional failure probability curves. Furthermore, this framework attempts to show the unacceptable performance of the isolated NPP in terms of the probabilistic distribution and annual probability of limit states. The comparative results for long and common ground motions are discussed to contribute to the future safety of nuclear facilities against drastic events like Tohoku.

• Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.150-158
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• 2019

Soil contaminated with heavy metals from artisanal gold mining in Anka Local Government Area in Northwestern Nigeria was investigated to evaluate the human health risk as a result of heavy metals. Measured concentration of heavy metals and exposure parameters were used to estimate human carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk. GIS-based Kriging method was utilized to create a prediction maps of human health risks and probability maps of heavy metals concentrations exceeding their threshold limits. Hazard index calculation showed that 21 out of 23 locations are posing non-cancer risk for children. Adults and children are at high cancer risk in all locations as the total cancer risk exceeded $1{\times}10^{-6}$ (the lower limit CTR value). Kriging model showed that only a very small area in Anka has a hazard index of less than unity and cumulative target risk of less than $1{\times}10^{-4}$, indicating a significant carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks for children. The probability of heavy metals to exceed their threshold concentrations around the study area was also found to be high.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2008.02a
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• pp.679-682
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• 2008

Probability precipitation is one of the most important factor for designing the hydrology structures. Probability precipitation is calculated based on the frequency analysis on each durations of annual maximum rainfall data. For frequency analysis we need a conversion factor between the rain data per random-time interval and fixed-time-interval. In this study, the minutely precipitation data on observatory of the Meteorological Administration are used for 37 stations. Therefore, we should conversion factors between the rain data per minute and fixed-time-interval.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.187-201
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• 2008

Earthquake induced hysteretic energy demand for a structure can be used as a limiting value of a certain performance level in seismic design of structures. In cases where it is larger than the hysteretic energy dissipation capacity of the structure, failure will occur. To be able to select the limiting value of hysteretic energy for a particular earthquake hazard level, it is required to define the variation of hysteretic energy in terms of probabilistic terms. This study focuses on the probabilistic evaluation of earthquake induced worst failure probability and approximate confidence intervals for inelastic single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) systems with a typical steel moment connection based on hysteretic energy. For this purpose, hysteretic energy demand is predicted for a set of SDOF systems subject to an ensemble of moderate and severe EQGMs, while the hysteretic energy dissipation capacity is evaluated through the previously published cyclic test data on full-scale steel beam-to-column connections. The failure probability corresponding to the worst possible case is determined based on the hysteretic energy demand and dissipation capacity. The results show that as the capacity to demand ratio increases, the failure probability decreases dramatically. If this ratio is too small, then the failure is inevitable.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.161-168
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• 2021

Existing old reinforced concrete buildings could be vulnerable to earthquakes because they were constructed without satisfying seismic design and detail requirements. In current seismic design standards, the target collapse probability for a given Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCE) ground-shaking hazard is defined as 10% for ordinary buildings. This study aims to estimate the collapse probabilities of a three-story, old, reinforced concrete building designed by only considering gravity loads. Four different seismic design categories (SDC), A, B, C, and D, are considered. This study reveals that the RC building located in the SDC A region satisfies the target collapse probability. However, buildings located in SDC B, C, and D regions do not meet the target collapse probability. Since the degree of exceedance of the target probability increases with an increase in the SDC level, it is imminent to retrofit non-ductile RC buildings similar to the model building. It can be confirmed that repair and reinforcement of old reinforced concrete buildings are required.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.9 no.1 s.26
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• pp.9-15
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• 2005

Hydrogen is considered to be the most important future energy carrier in many applications reducing significantly greenhouse gas emissions, but the safety issues associated with hydrogen applications need to be investigated and fully understood to be applicable as the carrier. Therefore, there is a considerable demand for further research concerning the dispersion of hydrogen/air mixture clouds and the possible consequences of their ignition. In this study, the dispersion of hydrogen gas in atmosphere has been analysed with atmospheric condition by concerning the buoyancy of hydrogen. The hazard ranges to wind direction increase with wind speed and the stability of atmosphere. The concentration of hydrogen at just above ground is nearly zero due to buoyancy of hydrogen gas. Therefore, the ignition probability of hydrogen gas cloud is low and the hazard of explosion or fire associated with hydrogen gas is relatively low comparing with the other fuel gas such as propane or butane.

• Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.285-291
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• 2016

Safety assessment is an essential activity for developing a system in the CNS/ATM domain. Up to now, there are many reference materials, but there is nothing that definitely specifies what to do and how to apply in the CNS/ATM. Another problem is that software assurance level has to be determined for a software under development. But there is nothing that defines a determination scheme of software assurance level. To solve these problems, this paper proposes a method to conduct a hazard assessment based on target level of safety defined in ICAO Doc 9689. To be applied generally in CNS/ATM domain, it mathematically defines procedures of hazard assessment. And it defines severity classification, probability, and safety objective of a system, which are necessary for hazard assessment, and it describes a method to apply event tree analysis process in order to conduct a hazard assessment.