• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.66 no.1
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• pp.75-84
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• 2018

This study presents the reliability-based analysis of nonlinear structures using the analytical fragility curves excited by random earthquake loads. The stochastic method of ground motion simulation is combined with the random vibration theory to compute structural failure probability. The formulation of structural failure probability using random vibration theory, based on only the frequency information of the excitation, provides an important basis for structural analysis in places where there is a lack of sufficient recorded ground motions. The importance of frequency content of ground motions on probability of structural failure is studied for different levels of the nonlinear behavior of structures. The set of simulated ground motion for this study is based on the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. It is demonstrated that the scenario events identified by the seismic risk differ from those obtained by the disaggregation of seismic hazard. The validity of the presented procedure is evaluated by Monte-Carlo simulation.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.23-30
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• 2013

A dynamic analysis of random vibration processes is concerned with the first excursion probability based on first passage time during some specified lifetime or duration of the excitation. This study is concerned with the estimation of first-passage probability for hazard fluctuate wind velocity in the major cities reflecting the recent meteorological with largest data samples (yearly 2003-2012). The basic wind speeds were standardized homogeneously to the surface roughness category C, and to 10m above the ground surface. In this paper, the hazard fluctuate wind velocities are treated as a time-independent (stationary) random process and Gaussian random processes. The first excursion probability were calculated from Poisson model based on the independent event of level crossing & two-state Markov model based on the envelopes of level crossing.

• Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.67-74
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• 2013

In this study, the prediction of slope hazard probability was performed to the study area located in Hadae-ri, Woochun-myeon, Hoengsung-gun, Gangwon Province around Youngdong express way using the computer program SHAPP ver 1.0 developed by a decision tree model. The soil samples were collected at total 10 points, and soil tests were performed to measure soil properties. The thematic maps of soil properties such as coefficient of permeability and void ratio were made on the basis of soil test results. The slope angle analysis of topography was performed using a digital map. As the prediction result of slope hazard probability, 2,120 cells among total 27,776 cells were predicted to be in the event of slope hazards. Therefore, the predicted area of occurring slope hazards may be $53,000m^2$ because the analyzed cell size was $5m{\times}5m$.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.303-316
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• 2023

Rapid post-earthquake damage estimation of subway stations is particularly necessary to improve short-term crisis management and safety measures of urban subway systems after a destructive earthquake. The conventional Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE) framework with constant earthquake occurrence rate is invalid to estimate the aftershock risk because of the time-varying rate of aftershocks and the uncertainty of mainshock-damaged state before the occurrence of aftershocks. This study presents a time-varying probabilistic seismic risk assessment framework for underground structures considering mainshock and aftershock hazards. A discrete non-omogeneous Markov process is adopted to quantify the time-varying nature of aftershock hazard and the uncertainties of structural damage states following mainshock. The time-varying seismic risk of a typical rectangular frame subway station is assessed under mainshock-only (MS) hazard and mainshock-aftershock (MSAS) hazard. The results show that the probabilities of exceeding same limit states over the service life under MSAS hazard are larger than the values under MS hazard. For the same probability of exceedance, the higher response demands are found when aftershocks are considered. As the severity of damage state for the station structure increases, the difference of the probability of exceedance increases when aftershocks are considered. PSDR=1.0% is used as the collapse prevention performance criteria for the subway station is reasonable for both the MS hazard and MSAS hazard. However, if the effect of aftershock hazard is neglected, it can significantly underestimate the response demands and the uncertainties of potential damage states for the subway station over the service life.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.79-90
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• 2020

4- and 8-storey reinforced-concrete frame buildings are analyzed under the suites of the near-fault pulse-like, and the corresponding spectrally equivalent far-fault ground-motion records. Seismic fragility curves for the slight, moderate, extensive, and complete damage states are developed, and the damage probability matrices, and the mean loss ratios corresponding to the Design Basis Earthquake and the Maximum Considered Earthquake hazard levels are compared, for the investigated buildings and sets of ground-motion records. It is observed that the spectrally equivalent far-fault ground-motion records result in comparable estimates of the fragility curve parameters, as that of the near-fault pulse-like ground-motion records. As a result, the derived damage probability matrices and mean loss ratios using two suites of ground-motion records differ only marginally (of the order of ~10%) for the investigated levels of seismic hazard, thus, implying the potential for application of the spectrally equivalent ground-motion records, for seismic fragility and risk assessment at the near-fault sites.

• Korea Journal of Hospital Management
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.42-53
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• 2018

Purpose: this study investigates the effect of private health insurance on healthcare utilization. Methodology: For the analysis, we employed the three level nested two part model. Findings: the private health insurance adoption was associated with higher health care utilization. In particular, indemnity and fixed insurances adoption was associated with higher probability of outpatient visit, the number of outpatient visit and outpatient cost. While indemnity insurance adoption was associated with higher inpatient admission probability and inpatient days, fixed insurance adoption was associated only with higher inpatient admission probability. Practical Implications: indemnity and fixed insurance adoption were related with the adverse selection as well as moral hazard.

• Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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• v.22 no.11
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• pp.5-13
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• 2021

The interest of expecting the liquefaction damage is increasing due to the liquefaction in Pohang in 2017. Liquefaction is defined as a phenomenon that the ground can not support the superstructure due to loss of the strength of the ground. As an alternative against this, many studies are being conducted to increase the precision and to compose a liquefaction hazard map for the purpose of identifying the scale of liquefaction damage using the liquefaction potential index (LPI). In this research, in order to analyze the degree of precision with regard to spatial interpolation objects such as LPI value and geotechnical information for LPI determination, liquefaction hazard map were made for the target area. Furthermore, based on the trend of precision, probability value was analyzed using probability maps prepared through qualitative characteristics. Based on the analysis results, the precision of the liquefaction hazard map setting the spatial interpolation object as geotechnical information is higher than that as LPI value. Furthermore, the precision of the liquefaction hazard map does not affect the distribution of the probability value.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.223-231
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• 2020

Due to the fact that Bingöl province is at the intersection of the North Anatolian Fault and the Eastern Anatolian Fault, the seismicity of the region is important. In this study, probabilistic seismic hazard analyzes (PSHA) were conducted to cover the boundaries of Bingöl province. It occurred since 1900, the seismicity of the region was obtained statistically by considering the earthquake records with a magnitude greater than 4 and the Gutenberg-Richter correlation. In the study, magnitude-frequency relationship, seismic hazard and repetition periods were obtained for certain time periods (10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 75 and 100 years). Once a project area determined in this study, which may affect the peak ground acceleration according to various attenuation relationships are calculated and using the Turkey Earthquake Hazard Map, average acceleration value for Bingöl province were determined. As a result of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, the project earthquakes with a probability of exceeding 50 years indicate that the magnitude of the project earthquake is 7.4 and that the province is in a risky area in terms of seismicity. The repetition periods of earthquakes of 6.0, 6.5, 7.0 and 7.5 are 42, 105, 266 and 670 years respectively. Within the province of Bingöl; the probability of exceeding 50 years is 2%, 10% and 50%, while the peak ground acceleration values are 1.03 g, 0.58 g and 0.24 g. As a result, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis shows that the seismicity of the region is high and the importance of considering the earthquake effect during construction is emphasized for this region.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.19 no.5
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• pp.379-393
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• 2020

The purpose of this study is to first evaluate the seismic behavior of ageing arch bridges by using the Intensity Measure - based demand and DCFD format, which is referred to as the fragility-hazard format. Then, an investigation is performed for their seismic vulnerability. Analytical models are created for bridges concerning different features and these models are subjected to Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) analysis using a set of 22 earthquake records. The hazard curve and results of IDA analysis are employed to evaluate the return period of exceeding the limit states in the IM-based probabilistic performance-based context. Subsequently, the fragility-hazard format is used to assess factored demand, factored capacity, and the ratio of the factored demand to the factored capacity of the models with respect to different performance objectives. Finally, the vulnerability curves are obtained for the investigated bridges in terms of the loss ratio. The results revealed that decreasing the span length of the unreinforced arch bridges leads to the increase in the return period of exceeding various limit states and factored capacity and decrease in the displacement demand, the probability of failure, the factored demand, as well as the factored demand to factored capacity ratios, loss ratio, and seismic vulnerability. Finally, it is derived that the probability of the need for rehabilitation increases by an increase in the span length of the models.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.8 no.6 s.40
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• pp.23-29
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• 2004

The design earthquake used for the seismic analysis and design of NPP (Nuclear Power Plant) is determined by the deterministic or probabilistic methods. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis(PSHA) for the nuclear power plant sites was performed for the probabilistic seismic risk assessment. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the nuclear power plant site had been completed as a part of the probabilistic seismic risk assessment. The probabilistic method become a resonable method to determine the design earthquakes for NPPs. In this study, the defining method of the probability based scenario earthquake was established, and as a sample calculation, the probability based scenario earthquakes were estimated by the de-aggregation of the probabilistic seismic hazard. By using this method, it is possible to define the probability based scenario earthquakes for the seismic design and seismic safety evaluation of structures. It is necessary to develop the rational seismic source map and the attenuation equations for the development of reasonable scenario earthquakes.