• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제26권5호
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• pp.473-495
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• 2019

In this paper, a new extension of Lindley distribution has been introduced. Certain characterizations based on truncated moments, hazard and reverse hazard function, conditional expectation of the proposed distribution are presented. Besides, these characterizations, other statistical/mathematical properties of the proposed model are also discussed. The estimation of the parameters is performed through different classical methods of estimation. Bayes estimation is computed under gamma informative prior under the squared error loss function. The performances of all estimation methods are studied via Monte Carlo simulations in mean square error sense. The potential of the proposed model is analyzed through two data sets. A modified goodness-of-fit test using the Nikulin-Rao-Robson statistic test is investigated via two examples and is observed that the new extension might be used as an alternative lifetime model.

• 한국재난정보학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국재난정보학회 2022년 정기학술대회 논문집
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• pp.227-228
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• 2022

전통적인 HRA(Human Reliability Analysis)방법은 특정 애플리케이션 또는 산업을 염두에 두고 있으며. 또한 이러한 방법은 종종 복잡하며, 시간이 많이 걸리고 적용하는 데 비용이 많이 들며 직접 비교하기에는 적합하지 않다. 제안된 HFHM(Human Factors Hazard Model: 인적 요인 위험 모델)은 기검증되고 시간 테스트를 거친 FTA(Fault Tree Analysis:결함 트리 분석)및 ETA(Event Tree Analysis:이벤트 트리 분석)의 확률 분석 도구 및 새로 개발된 HEP(Human Error Probability:인적 오류 확률)예측 도구와 통합되고, 인간과 관련된 PSF(Performance Shaping Factors:성능 형성 요인)를 중심으로 새로운 접근 방식으로 개발되었다. 인간-시스템은 상호작용으로 인한 재난사고 가능성을 모델링하는 위험분석 접근법 HFHM은 다음과 같은 상용 소프트웨어 도구 내에서 예시되고 자동화된다. HFHM에서 생성된 데이터는 SE 분석가 및 설계에 대한 표준화된 가이드로 사용될 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 인적 위험을 예측하는 이 새로운 접근 방식을 통해, 전체 시스템에 대한 포괄적인 재난안전 분석을 가능하게 한다.

• 한국지반환경공학회 논문집
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.17-27
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• 2015

최근 우리 정부는 안전한 대한민국이라는 슬로건 아래 지진재해를 포함한 자연재해피해를 최소화하는데 많은 노력을 집중하고 있으며, 이를 위해 산사태 위험도와 액상화 위험도와 같은 지진 시 지반피해 GIS 시스템 데이터가 구축되고 있는 실정이다. 우리나라 전역을 포함하는 지진 시 액상화 위험도를 작성하기 위해서는 수많은 지반시추정보에 대한 적용성 검토가 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 액상화 위험도 작성을 위해 인구밀도가 높은 광역지역의 지반증폭계수를 검토하였으며 이를 위해 S시 522개 시추공지반 정보를 수집하여 지반응답해석을 수행하였다. 이때 지반분류는 지반정보의 불확실성을 고려하고자 현행 내진 설계기준에서 제안하고 있는 시추종료 깊이 이후의 지반 정보를 30m로 가정하는 경우와 지반정보의 오리지널 데이터 값만을 이용하는 경우로 나누어 비교하였으며, 타당성 검토 시에는 지반응답해석 결과에 대한 확률분포와 통계분석을 이용하여 수행하였다. 최종적으로 정규분포를 통한 신뢰도 50%, 70%, 90%에 대한 지반증폭계수를 도출하여 액상화 위험도를 도시하였으며, 이를 지반응답해석을 통해 도시한 LPI 액상화 위험도와 비교하여 가장 유사한 값을 추천하였다. 연구결과 제안된 지반증폭계수가 향후 국내 액상화에 대한 연구와 중진지역의 광역지역 액상화 위험도 작성에 큰 도움이 될 수 있을 것으로 기대한다.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제6권7호
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• pp.773-784
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• 1998

To assess the collapse risk of transmission line structures subject to natural hazards, it is important to identify what hazard may cause the structural collapse. In Australia and many other countries, a large proportion of failures of transmission line structures are caused by severe thunderstorms. Because the wind loads generated by thunderstorms are not only random but time-variant as well, a time-dependent structural reliability approach for the risk assessment of transmission line structures is essential. However, a lack of appropriate stochastic models for thunderstorm winds usually makes this kind of analysis impossible. The intention of the paper is to propose a stochastic model that could realistically and accurately simulate wind loading due to severe thunderstorms. With the proposed thunderstorm model, the collapse risk of transmission line structures under severe thunderstorms is assessed numerically based on the computed failure probability of the structure.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.155-160
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• 1997

The conventional fault tree and reliability analysis gives in many cases insufficient information concerning the relative frequencies of hazard events. This stems from that the basic events are not stationary and ergodic, and therefore the tolerances of the induced and top events cannot be calculated reliably based on the classical probability theory. To overcome this difficulty, the paper considers the relative frequencies of the basic events as fuzzy numbers and uses instead of probability, possible considerations for evaluating the mean values and tolerances of the top events. The possibility distribution of the basic events can be approximated based on heuristic considerations. This paper shows the use of these operators for constructing fault trees. The use of the method for numerical calculation is demonstrated on a field safety problem.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제5권5호
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• pp.607-624
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• 2013

In this study the seismic risk assessments of six- and twelve-story staggered wall system structures with three different structural variations were performed. The performances of staggered wall structures with added columns along the central corridor and the structures with their first story walls replaced by beams and columns were compared with those of the regular staggered wall structures. To this end incremental dynamic analyses were carried out using twenty two pairs of earthquake records to obtain the failure probabilities for various intensity of seismic load. The seismic risk for each damage state was computed based on the fragility analysis results and the probability of occurrence of earthquake ground motions. According to the analysis results, it was observed that the structures with added columns along the central corridor showed lowest probability of failure and seismic risk. The structures with their first story walls replaced by beams and columns showed lowest margin for safety.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국방재학회 2010년도 정기 학술발표대회
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• pp.16-24
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• 2010

This paper introduces the applications of Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System (TELES), which is developed by the National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering (NCREE). Seismic disaster simulation technology (SDST) integrates geographical information system to assess the distribution of ground shaking intensity, ground failure probability, building damages, casualties, post-quake fires, debris, lifeline interruptions, economic losses, etc. given any set of seismic source parameters. The SDST may integrate with Taiwan Rapid Earthquake Information Release System (TREIRS) developed by Central Weather Bureau (CWB) to obtain valuable information soon after large earthquakes and to assist in decision-making processes to dispatch rescue and medical resources more efficiently. The SDST may also integrate with probabilistic seismic source model to evaluate various kinds of risk estimates, such as average annual loss, probable maximum loss in one event, and exceeding probability curves of various kinds of losses, to help proposing feasible countermeasures and risk management strategies.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제22권50호
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• pp.373-380
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• 1999

This paper summerizes the former 5 papers that studied computer programming for the estimation of the Weibull, Extreme value, Hazard, Normal and Log-normal parameters which have a close relation with the reliability of the various kinds of industrial products. Probability paper is very commonly used in estimating the parameters, however, it is very hard to neglect the errors in plotting the data, and especially in drawing the regression line. The main purpose of this paper is to reduce these errors and to help the engineers to use the parameters in improving the reliability of their prod- ucts. The following parts are included in the computer programming with the em- phases on significant digits and rounding of numerical values : $\bullet$ data input part for various cases $\bullet$ parameter estimation part $\bullet$ printing part for input data $\bullet$ printing part for the results $\bullet$ printing part for the graphic(probability paper). And the running results(monitor displays) of the program for a fictitious example of Weibull distribution is given for the interested ones.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• 제4권4호
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• pp.183-190
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• 2003

Rail breaks and derailments can cause a huge loss to rail players due to loss of service, revenue, property or even life. Maintenance has huge impact on reliability and safety of railroads. It is important to identify factors behind rail degradation and their risks associated with rail breaks and derailments. Development of mathematical models is essential for prediction and prevention of risks due to rail and wheel set damages, rail breaks and derailments. This paper addresses identification of hazard modes, estimation of probability of those hazards under operating, curve and environmental condition, probability of detection of potential hazards before happening and severity of those hazards for informed strategic decisions. Emphasis is put on optimal maintenance and operational decisions. Real life data is used for illustration.

• 한국조명전기설비학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국조명전기설비학회 2002년도 학술대회논문집
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• pp.375-378
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• 2002

An arc/spark detector (ASD) was developed is to early detect wire failures and insecure connections that may lead to fire in residents and commercial and industrial facilities. A detailed circuit design for ASD implementation along with prototype product is reported. The tests of ASD, which were successful in phase identification, in many different arc/spark locations under different loadings, and in false alarm probability, showed the ability and capability of the state-of-the-art detector in the electric fire hazard prevention.