• 천문학회보
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• 제30권1호
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• pp.51.1-51.1
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• 2005

• 천문학회지
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• 제42권3호
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• pp.55-60
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• 2009

The properties of SOHO/LASCO CMEs are subjected to projection effects. Their dependence on the source position is important to be studied. Our main aim is to study the dependence of CME properties on helio-longitude and latitude using the CMEs associated with type IIs observed by Wind/WAVES spacecraft (Deca-hecta metric type IIs - DH type IIs). These CMEs were identified as a separate population of geo-effective CMEs. We considered the CMEs associated with the Wind/WAVE type IIs observed during the period January 1997 - December 2005. The source locations of these CMEs were identified using their associated GOES X-ray flares and listed online. Using their locations and the cataloged properties of CMEs, we carried out a study on the dependence of CME properties on source location. We studied the above for three groups of CMEs: (i) all CMEs, (ii) halo and non-halo CMEs, and (iii) limb and non-limb CMEs. Major results from this study can be summarized as follows. (i) There is a clear dependence of speed on both the longitude and latitude; while there is an increasing trend with respect to longitude, it is opposite in the case of latitude. Our investigations show that the longitudinal dependence is caused by the projection effect and the latitudinal effect by the solar cycle effect. (ii) In the case of width, the disc centered events are observed with more width than those occurred at higher longitudes, and this result seems to be the same for latitude. (iii) The dependency of speed is confirmed on the angular distance between the sun-center and source location determined using both the longitude and latitude. (iv) There is no dependency found in the case of acceleration. (v) Among all the three groups of CMEs, the speeds of halo CMEs show more dependency on longitude. The speed of non-halo and non-limb CMEs show more dependency on latitude. The above results may be taken into account in correcting the projection effects of geo-effective CMEs.

• 천문학회보
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• 제42권2호
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• pp.62.1-62.1
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• 2017

In space weather forecast, it is important to determine three-dimensional properties of CMEs. Using 29 limb CMEs, we examine which cone type is close to a CME three-dimensional structure. We find that most CMEs have near full ice-cream cone structure which is a symmetrical circular cone combined with a hemisphere. We develop a full ice-cream cone model based on a new methodology that the full ice-cream cone consists of many flat cones with different heights and angular widths. By applying this model to 12 SOHO/LASCO halo CMEs, we find that 3D parameters from our method are similar to those from other stereoscopic methods (i.e., a triangulation method and a Graduated Cylindrical Shell model). In addition, we derive CME mean density (${\bar{\rho}_{CME}}={\frac{M_{total}}{V_{cone}}}$) based on the full ice-cream cone structure. For several limb events, we determine CME mass by applying the Solarsoft procedure (e.g., cme_mass.pro) to SOHO/LASCO C3 images. CME volumes are estimated from the full ice-cream cone structure. For the first time, we derive average CME densities as a function of CME height for several CMEs, which are well fitted to power-law functions. We will compare densities (front and average) of geoeffective CMEs and their corresponding ICME ones.

• 천문학회보
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• 제39권1호
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• pp.76.1-76.1
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• 2014

We investigate the solar flare and CME occurrence rate and probability depending on sunspot class and its area change. These CMEs are front-side, partial and full halo CMEs associated with X-ray flares. For this we use the Solar Region Summary(SRS) from NOAA, NGDC flare catalog, and SOHO/LASCO CME catalog for 16 years (from January 1996 to December 2011). We classify each sunspot class into two sub-groups: "Large" and "Small". In addition, for each class, we classify it into three sub-groups according to sunspot class area change: "Decrease", "Steady", and "Increase". In terms of sunspot class area, the solar flare and CME occurrence probabilities noticeably increase at compact and large sunspot groups (e.g., 'Fkc'). In terms of sunspot area change, solar flare and CME occurrence probabilities for the "Increase" sub-groups are noticeably higher than those for the other sub-groups. For example, in case of the (M+X)-class flares of 'Dkc' class, the flare occurrence probability of the "Increase" sub-group is three times higher than that of the "Steady" sub-group. In case of the 'Eai' class, the CME occurrence probability of the "Increase" sub-groups is five time higher than that of the "Steady" sub-group. Our results demonstrate statistically that magnetic flux and its emergence enhance solar flare and CME occurrence, especially for compact and large sunspot groups.

• 천문학회보
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• 제44권1호
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• pp.50.2-50.2
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• 2019

Understanding three-dimensional structure and parameters (e.g., radial velocity, angular width, source location and density) of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is essential for space weather forecast. In this study, we determine CME mean density in solar corona and near the Earth. We select 38 halo CMEs, which have the corresponding interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs), by SOHO/LASCO from 2000 to 2014. To estimate a CME volume, we assume that a CME structure is a full ice-cream cone which is a symmetrical circular cone combined with a hemisphere. We derive CME mean density as a function of radial height, which are approximately fitted to power-law functions. The average of power-law indexes is about 2.1 in the LASCO C3 field of view. We also obtain power-law functions for both CME mean density at 21 solar radii and ICME mean density at 1AU, with the average power-law index of 2.6. We estimate a ratio of CME density to background density based on the Leblanc et al.(1998) at 21 solar radii. Interestingly, the average of the ratios is 4.0, which is the same as a default value used in the WSA-ENLIL model.

• 천문학회보
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• 제38권2호
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• pp.33-33
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• 2013

We are developing empirical space weather (solar flare, solar proton event, and geomagnetic storm) forecast models based on solar data. In this talk we will review our main results and recent progress. First, we have examined solar flare (R) occurrence probability depending on sunspot McIntosh classification, its area, and its area change. We find that sunspot area and its increase (a proxy of flux emergence) greatly enhance solar flare occurrence rates for several sunspot classes. Second, a solar proton event (S) forecast model depending on flare parameters (flare strength, duration, and longitude) as well as CME parameters (speed and angular width) has been developed. We find that solar proton event probability strongly depends on these parameters and CME speed is well correlated with solar proton flux for disk events. Third, we have developed an empirical storm (G) forecast model to predict probability and strength of a storm using halo CME - Dst storm data. For this we use storm probability maps depending on CME parameters such as speed, location, and earthward direction. We are also looking for geoeffective CME parameters such as cone model parameters and magnetic field orientation. We find that all superstorms (less than -200 nT) occurred in the western hemisphere with southward field orientations. We have a plan to set up a storm forecast method with a three-stage approach, which will make a prediction within four hours after the solar coronagraph data become available. We expect that this study will enable us to forecast the onset and strength of a geomagnetic storm a few days in advance using only CME parameters and the WSA-ENLIL model. Finally, we discuss several ongoing works for space weather applications.

• 천문학회보
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• 제35권1호
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• pp.33.2-33.2
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• 2010

We have investigated a relationship among the solar proton events (SPEs), coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar flares during the solar cycle 23 (1997-2006). Using 63 SPE dataset, we found that SPE rise time, duration time, and decrease times depend on CME speed and SPE peak intensity depends on the CME earthward direction parameter as well as CME speed and x-ray flare intensity. While inspecting the relation between SPE peak intensity and the CME earthward direction parameter, we found that there are two groups: first group consists of large 6 SPEs (> 10,000 pfu at >10 MeV proton channel of GOES satellite) and shows a very good correlation (cc=0.65) between SPE peak intensity and CME earthward direction parameter. The second group has a relatively weak SPE peak intensity and shows poor correlation between SPE peak intensity and the CME earthward direction parameter (cc=0.01). By investigating characteristics of 6 SPEs in the first group, we found that there are special common conditions of the extremely large proton events (group 1); (1) all the SPEs are associated with very fast halo CME (>1400km/s), (2) they are almost located at disk region, (3) they also accompany large flare (>M7), (4) all they are preceded by another wide CMEs, and (5) they all show helmet streamer nearby the main CME. In this presentation, we will give details of the energy spectra of the 6 SPE events from the ERNE/HED aboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), and onset time comparison among the SPE, flare, type II burst, and CME.

• 천문학회보
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• 제32권2호
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• pp.33.1-33.1
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• 2007

• 천문학회보
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• 제36권2호
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• pp.95.1-95.1
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• 2011

Halo Coronal Mass Ejections (HCMEs) are crucial for space weather, since they can produce severe geomagnetic storms when they interact with the Earth's magnetosphere. It is thus very important to infer their directions, radial velocities, and their three-dimensional structures. In this study, we apply two different models to HCMEs since 2008 : (1) an ice cream cone model by Xue et al (2005) using SOHO/LASCO data, (2) a flux rope model by Thernisien et al. (2009) using STEREO/SECCHI data. In addition, we use the flux rope model with zero separation angle of flux rope, which is morphologically similar to the ice cream cone model. The comparison shows that the CME radial velocities from three models have very good correlations (R>0.9) one another. We are extending this comparison to other partial halo CMEs observed by STEREO and SOHO.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.9-24
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• 2009

태양주기 23의 태양흑점과 코로나질량방출(Coronal Mass Ejection, CME), 지자기폭풍과의 상호 연관성을 알아보기 위해 CME의 연도별 발생빈도 분포와 북-남 비대칭 분포, 태양흑점수와 면적의 연평균 분포와 북-남 비대칭 분포, 지자기폭풍의 연도별 발생빈도 분포와의 상호 상관관계를 알아보았다. 1996년부터 2007년까지의 SOHO/LASCO 목록 CME의 위치정보를 이용하여 북쪽 반구에서 발생한 CME와 남쪽 반구에서 발생한 CME의 연도별 발생빈도 분포를 알아내었다. 태양흑점수와 면적을 북쪽 반구와 남쪽 반구를 구분하여 그 연평균 분포를 구하였고 지자기 교란정도를 알 수 있는 Ap지수, Dst지수, aa지수를 이용하여 지자기폭풍의 연도별 발생빈도 분포를 구하였다. 이렇게 구한 각각의 분포간의 상호 상관관계를 구하였다. 또한 CME를 각 너비(Angular Width)와 속도(Linear Speed)에 따라 분류하여 흑점 분포, 지자기폭풍의 발생빈도 분포와 상관관계도 알아보았다. 그 결과 CME의 전체 발생빈도는 흑점수와 면적의 전체 분포와의 상관관계가 높았고 흑점수와 면적의 북-남 비대칭 분포와는 상관관계가 낮았다. CME의 북-남 비대칭 분포는 흑점의 북-남 비대칭 분포와 상관관계가 높았다. CME와 지자기폭풍 발생빈도 분포와의 상관관계를 살펴 본 결과 CME 전체나 북-남 비대칭 분포와는 상관도가 낮게 나왔다. 그러나 CME를 규모별로 나누어 그 총 발생빈도와의 상관관계를 알아 본 결과 Ap지수와 aa지수는 속도가 빠른 경우, Dst지수는 각너비나 속도별로 나눈 모든 경우에 상관도가 높게 나왔다. 흑점과 지자기폭풍 발생빈도의 경우 흑점수와 면적의 전체 분포와 지자기폭풍 사이의 상관관계가 높게 나타났다. 이 결과를 통해 CME의 발생빈도 분포는 흑점의 분포와 연관성이 높고 이 둘의 전체 분포와 지자기폭풍의 발생빈도 분포와의 연관성이 높은 것을 알 수 있다. 그리고 CME, 흑점의 북-남 비대칭 분포와 지자기폭풍의 발생빈도 분포의 경우 연관성이 낮은 것을 알 수 있다.