• Title/Summary/Keyword: h-likelihood

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Human Error Analysis in a Permit to Work System: A Case Study in a Chemical Plant

  • Jahangiri, Mehdi;Hoboubi, Naser;Rostamabadi, Akbar;Keshavarzi, Sareh;Hosseini, Ali Akbar
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.6-11
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    • 2016
  • Background: A permit to work (PTW) is a formal written system to control certain types of work which are identified as potentially hazardous. However, human error in PTW processes can lead to an accident. Methods: This cross-sectional, descriptive study was conducted to estimate the probability of human errors in PTWprocesses in a chemical plant in Iran. In the first stage, through interviewing the personnel and studying the procedure in the plant, the PTW process was analyzed using the hierarchical task analysis technique. In doing so, PTWwas considered as a goal and detailed tasks to achieve the goal were analyzed. In the next step, the standardized plant analysis risk-human (SPAR-H) reliability analysis method was applied for estimation of human error probability. Results: The mean probability of human error in the PTW system was estimated to be 0.11. The highest probability of human error in the PTW process was related to flammable gas testing (50.7%). Conclusion: The SPAR-H method applied in this study could analyze and quantify the potential human errors and extract the required measures for reducing the error probabilities in PTW system. Some suggestions to reduce the likelihood of errors, especially in the field of modifying the performance shaping factors and dependencies among tasks are provided.

Development of a High Resolution SPECT Detector with Depth-encoding Capability for Multi-energy Imaging: Monte Carlo Simulation (다중에너지 영상 획득을 위한 Depth-Encoding 고분해능 단일광자단층촬영 검출기 개발: 몬테칼로 시뮬레이션 연구)

  • Beak, Cheol-Ha;Hwang, Ji-Yeon;Lee, Seung-Jae;Chung, Yong-Hyun
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.93-98
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    • 2010
  • The aim of this work was to establish the methodology for event positioning by measuring depth of interaction (DOI) information and to evaluate the system sensitivity and spatial resolution of the new detector for I-125 and Tc-99m imaging. For this purpose, a Monte Carlo simulation tool, DETECT2000 and GATE were used to model the energy deposition and light distribution in the detector and to validate this approach. Our proposed detector module consists of a monolithic CsI(Tl) crystal with dimensions of $50.0{\times}50.0{\times}3.0\;mm^3$. The results of simulation demonstrated that the resolution is less than 1.5 mm for both I-125 and Tc-99m. The main advantage of the proposed detector module is that by using 3 mm thick CsI(Tl) with maximum-likelihood position-estimation (MLPE) method, high resolution I-125 imaging and high sensitivity Tc-99m imaging are possible. In this paper, we proved that our new detector to be a reliable design as a detector for a multi-energy SPECT.

Relationship between Resumption of Postpartum Ovarian Cyclicity and Plasma Urea Nitrogen (PUN) in Holstein Cows (젖소의 분만 후 난소 주기의 재개와 혈장 요소태 질소(PUN)와의 관계)

  • Park, S.B.;Son, J.K.;Park, S.J.;Baek, K.S.;Jeon, B.S.;Ahn, B.S.;Kim, H.S.;Park, C.K.
    • Journal of Embryo Transfer
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.199-205
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    • 2006
  • The objective of this study was to investigate the resumption of postpartum ovarian cyclicity, and to determine the relationship between concentrations of plasma urea nitrogen (PUN) and resumption of ovarian cyclicity in Holstein cows. The cows were considered to have resumed ovarian cyclicity on the day of ovulation, if followed by regular ovarian cycles. 58.8 percentage of the cows (114/194) had normal resumption of ovarian cyclicity (resumption within 40days after calving), and 41.2% (80/194) had delayed resumption (resumption did not occur until> 40days after calving). Delayed resumption Type I (one or more ovarian cycles with luteal phase> 20days, i.e. prolonged luteal phase; 17.5%) and delayed resumption Type II (first ovulation did not occur until ${\ge}40days$ after calving, i.e. delayed first ovulation 22.7%) were the most common types of delayed resumption. 18 percentage of the cows (35/194) did not resume their ovarian cyclicity until 60days postpartum. Prolonged luteal phase and delayed first ovulation were two important ovarian dysfunctions that delayed postpartum resumption of cyclicity in dairy cows. Cows with PUN of <15, $15{\sim}19.9\;and\;{\ge}20mg/dl$ had the likelihood ratios of normal ovarian cyclicity of 0.9, 1.14 and 0.55, respectively. Thus, PUN concentration of $15{\sim}19.9mg/dl$ had a favorable association with postpartum resumption of cyclicity, whereas lower or higher PUN had a negative association with postpartum resumption of cyclicity.

Sedimentary type Non-Metallic Mineral Potential Analysis using GIS and Weight of Evidence Model in the Gangreung Area (지리정보시스템(GIS) 및 Weight of Evidence 기법을 이용한 강릉지역의 퇴적기원의 비금속 광상부존가능성 분석)

  • Lee Sa-Ro;Oh Hyun-Joo;Min Kyung-Duck
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.14 no.1 s.36
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    • pp.129-150
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    • 2006
  • Mineral potential mapping is an important procedure in mineral resource assessment. The purpose of this study is to analyze mineral potential using weight of evidence model and a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment to identify areas that have not been subjected to the same degree of exploration. For this, a variety of spatial geological data were compiled, evaluated and integrated to produce a map of potential mineral in the Gangreung area, Korea. for this, a spatial database considering mineral deposit, topographic, geologic, geophysical and geochemical data was constructed for the study area using a GIS. The used mineral deposits were non-metallic(Kaolin, Porcelainstone, Silicastone, Mica, Nephrite, Limestone and Pyrophyllite) deposits of sedimentary type. The factors relating to mineral deposits were the geological data such as lithology and fault structure, geochemical data, including the abundance of Al, As, Ba, Ca, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, K, Li, Mg, Mn, Mo, Na, Ni, Pb, Si, Sr, V, Zn, $Cl^-,\;F^-,\;{PO_4}^{3-},\;{NO_2}^-,\;{NO_3}^-,\;SO_{42-}$, Eh, PH and conductivity and geophysical data, including the Bouguer and magnetic anomalies. These factors were used with weight of evidence model to analyze mineral potential. Probability models using the weight of evidence were applied to extract the relationship between mineral deposits and related factors, and the ratio were calculated. Then the potential indices were calculated by summation of the likelihood ratio and mineral potential maps were constructed from Geographic Information System (GIS). The mineral potential maps were then verified by comparison with the known mineral deposit areas. The result showed the 85.66% in prediction accuracy.

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Biomechanical Analysis of a Combined Interspinous Spacer with a Posterior Lumbar Fusion with Pedicle Screws (척추경나사못을 이용한 유합술과 동반 시술된 극돌기간 삽입기구의 생체역학적 연구)

  • Kim, Y.H.;Park, E.Y.;Lee, S.J.
    • Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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    • v.36 no.6
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    • pp.276-282
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    • 2015
  • Recently, during the multi-level fusion with pedicle screws, interspinous spacer are sometimes substituted for the most superior level of the fusion in an attempt to reduce the number of fusion level and likelihood of degeneration process at the adjacent level. In this study, a finite element (FE) study was performed to assess biomechanical efficacies of the interspinous spacer combined with posterior lumbar fusion with a previously-validated 3-dimensional FE model of the intact lumbar spine (L1-S1). The post-operative models were made by modifying the intact model to simulate the implantation of interspinous spacer and pedicle screws at the L3-4 and L4-5. Four different configurations of the post-op model were considered: (1) a normal spinal model; (2) Type 1, one-level fusion using posterior pedicle screws at the L4-5; (3) Type 2, two-level (L3-5) fusion; (4) Type 3, Type 1 plus Coflex$^{TM}$ at the L3-4. hybrid protocol (intact: 10 Nm) with a compressive follower load of 400N were used to flex, extend, axially rotate and laterally bend the FE model. As compared to the intact model, Type 2 showed the greatest increase in Range of motion (ROM) at the adjacent level (L2-3), followed Type 3, and Type 1 depending on the loading type. At L3-4, ROM of Type 2 was reduced by 34~56% regardless of loading mode, as compared to decrease of 55% in Type 3 only in extension. In case of normal bone strength model (Type 3_Normal), PVMS at the process and the pedicle remained less than 20% of their yield strengths regardless of loading, except in extension (about 35%). However, for the osteoporotic model (Type 3_Osteoporotic), it reached up to 56% in extension indicating increased susceptibility to fracture. This study suggested that substitution of the superior level fusion with the interspinous spacer in multi-level fusion may be able to offer similar biomechanical outcome and stability while reducing likelihood of adjacent level degeneration.

COPD Patients with Hypercapnic Respiratory Failure : Response to Therapy and Determinant of Intubation (만성폐쇄성폐질환 환자의 고탄산혈증성 호흡부전 : 치료 반응 및 기도삽관의 결정인자)

  • Song, So-Hyang;Kim, Chi-Hong;Kim, Young-Kyoon;Kim, Kwan-Hyoung;Moon, Hwa-Sik;Song, Jeong-Sup;Park, Sung-Hak
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.50 no.4
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    • pp.462-472
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    • 2001
  • Background : The determinants of intubation and the response to therapy in COPD patients with hypercapnic respiratory failure were retrospectively reviewed. Methods : This study involved a review of 132 episodes of hypercapnic respiratory failure($PaCO_2\;{\geq}\;50\;mmHg$ and $pH\;{\leq}\;7.35$). The time frame for resolution or the time to intubation of patients who were admitted between 1996 and 1999 was analyzed. Results : Out of 132 hypercapnic episodes, 49(37%) required intubation. A comparison was made with the 83 cases that responded to treatment. Patients requiring intubation had a greater severity of illness, which included a higher APACHE II (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II) score ($20{\pm}5$ vs $14{\pm}4$ ; p<0.01), a higher WBC, a higher serum BUN, and greater acidosis (pH, $7.23{\pm}0.11$ vs $7.32{\pm}0.04$ ; p<0.01). Those with the most severe acidosis(pH<7.20) had the highest intubation rate(87%) and shortest time to intubation($2{\pm}3\;h$). Conversely, those with an initial pH 7.31 to 7.35 were less likely to be intubated(20%), and had a longer time to intubation($97{\pm}121\;h$). The patients with a pH 7.21 to 7.25($4.1{\pm}2.9$ day) required longer period of time to respond to medical treatment than patients with a pH of 7.31 to 7.35($2.2{\pm}3.1$ day). Of those patients requiring intubation, half(55%) were intubated within 8 h of admission, and most (75%) within 24 h. Of those patients responding to treatment medical therapy, half(52%) recovered within 24 h and most (78%) recovered within 48 h. Conclusion: Respiratory acidosis at the initial presentation is associated with an increased likelihood of intubation. This should assist in deciding help with the decision whether to treat patients medically, institute noninvasive ventilation, or proceed to intubation.

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Density Effect and Diversity of Fish in Water System at Both Reservoirs in the Youngsan-ri, Goseong-gun (고성군 용산리의 두 저수 수계에서 어류의 다양성과 밀도 효과)

  • Huh, Man Kyu;Choi, Byoung-Ki
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.533-538
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    • 2015
  • Four sites and one site were used to analyze fish diversity at the water systems of the Sineun reservoir and the Jeonchon reservoir, respectively. The field experiments were conducted to test the density dependence that could lead to population regulation by artificial inferences and environmental changes. We examined the effects of environmental factors on fish densities using SMATR freeware. It was estimated to be reduced to the density effect at four sites in 2012. Shannon-Weaver indices of the diversity (H’) of the Sineun reservoir were similar to those of the Jeonchon reservoir. Species diversity was in a range of 0.645 to 2.105. The H’ value of the upper region was higher than those of middle and low regions were, and values of richness were lower in downstream than upstream. Using the maximum likelihood solution for the removal estimators of two low regions of the river stations, the estimated migration probabilities from the resident fish to the migrated fish for five species (Cyprinus cuvieri, Carassius auratus, Pseudorasbora parva, Misgurnus mizolepis, and Oryzias latipes) had a mean of 0.623. Especially, migration probabilities from the Jeonchon reservoir to the Sineun reservoir for five species were high (a mean of 0.681). The period of migration was suggested to be about one month because of short geographical distances (50 m). We found no significant difference between the three categories in the distribution of the other four species, indicating the species probability was similar among stations.

Variance Components and Genetic Parameters for Milk Production and Lactation Pattern in an Ethiopian Multibreed Dairy Cattle Population

  • Gebreyohannes, Gebregziabher;Koonawootrittriron, Skorn;Elzo, Mauricio A.;Suwanasopee, Thanathip
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.26 no.9
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    • pp.1237-1246
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    • 2013
  • The objective of this study was to estimate variance components and genetic parameters for lactation milk yield (LY), lactation length (LL), average milk yield per day (YD), initial milk yield (IY), peak milk yield (PY), days to peak (DP) and parameters (ln(a) and c) of the modified incomplete gamma function (MIG) in an Ethiopian multibreed dairy cattle population. The dataset was composed of 5,507 lactation records collected from 1,639 cows in three locations (Bako, Debre Zeit and Holetta) in Ethiopia from 1977 to 2010. Parameters for MIG were obtained from regression analysis of monthly test-day milk data on days in milk. The cows were purebred (Bos indicus) Boran (B) and Horro (H) and their crosses with different fractions of Friesian (F), Jersey (J) and Simmental (S). There were 23 breed groups (B, H, and their crossbreds with F, J, and S) in the population. Fixed and mixed models were used to analyse the data. The fixed model considered herd-year-season, parity and breed group as fixed effects, and residual as random. The single and two-traits mixed animal repeatability models, considered the fixed effects of herd-year-season and parity subclasses, breed as a function of cow H, F, J, and S breed fractions and general heterosis as a function of heterozygosity, and the random additive animal, permanent environment, and residual effects. For the analysis of LY, LL was added as a fixed covariate to all models. Variance components and genetic parameters were estimated using average information restricted maximum likelihood procedures. The results indicated that all traits were affected (p<0.001) by the considered fixed effects. High grade $B{\times}F$ cows (3/16B 13/16F) had the highest least squares means (LSM) for LY ($2,490{\pm}178.9kg$), IY ($10.5{\pm}0.8kg$), PY ($12.7{\pm}0.9kg$), YD ($7.6{\pm}0.55kg$) and LL ($361.4{\pm}31.2d$), while B cows had the lowest LSM values for these traits. The LSM of LY, IY, YD, and PY tended to increase from the first to the fifth parity. Single-trait analyses yielded low heritability ($0.03{\pm}0.03$ and $0.08{\pm}0.02$) and repeatability ($0.14{\pm}0.01$ to $0.24{\pm}0.02$) estimates for LL, DP and parameter c. Medium heritability ($0.21{\pm}0.03$ to $0.33{\pm}0.04$) and repeatability ($0.27{\pm}0.02$ to $0.53{\pm}0.01$) estimates were obtained for LY, IY, PY, YD and ln(a). Genetic correlations between LY, IY, PY, YD, ln(a), and LL ranged from 0.59 to 0.99. Spearman's rank correlations between sire estimated breeding values for LY, LL, IY, PY, YD, ln(a) and c were positive (0.67 to 0.99, p<0.001). These results suggested that selection for IY, PY, YD, or LY would genetically improve lactation milk yield in this Ethiopian dairy cattle population.

A Study on the Ordered Subsets Expectation Maximization Reconstruction Method Using Gibbs Priors for Emission Computed Tomography (Gibbs 선행치를 사용한 배열된부분집합 기대값최대화 방출단층영상 재구성방법에 관한 연구)

  • Im, K. C.;Choi, Y.;Kim, J. H.;Lee, S. J.;Woo, S. K.;Seo, H. K.;Lee, K. H.;Kim, S. E.;Choe, Y. S.;Park, C. C;Kim, B. T.
    • Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.441-448
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    • 2000
  • 방출단층영상 재구성을 위한 최대우도 기대값최대화(maximum likelihood expectation maximization, MLEM) 방법은 영상 획득과정을 통계학적으로 모델링하여 영상을 재구성한다. MLEM은 일반적으로 사용하여 여과후역투사(filtered backprojection)방법에 비해 많은 장점을 가지고 있으나 반복횟수 증가에 따른 발산과 재구성 시간이 오래 걸리는 단점을 가지고 있다. 이 논문에서는 이러한 단점을 보완하기 위해 계산시간을 현저히 단축시킨 배열된부분집합 기대값최대화(ordered subsets expectation maximization. OSEM)에 Gibbs 선행치인 membrance (MM) 또는 thin plate(TP)을 첨가한 OSEM-MAP (maximum a posteriori)을 구현함으로써 알고리즘의 안정성 및 재구성된 영상의 질을 향상시키고자 g나다. 실험에서 알고리즘의 수렴시간을 가속화하기 위해 투사 데이터를 16개의 부분집합으로 분할하여 반복연산을 수행하였으며, 알고리즘의 성능을 비교하기 위해 소프트웨어 모형(원숭이 뇌 자가방사선, 수학적심장흉부)을 사용한 영상재구성 결과를 제곱오차로 비교하였다. 또한 알고리즘의 사용 가능성을 평가하기 위해 물리모형을 사용하여 PET 기기로부터 획득한 실제 투사 데이터를 사용하였다.

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The Effects of Family Structure and Socialization Influences on Compulsive Buying: A Life Course Study in Thailand (가족구조와 사회화가 강박구매에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구: 태국의 인생행로연구를 중심으로)

  • Nguyen, Hung Vu;Moschis, George P.;Shannon, Randall;Gotthelf, Kristian
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.27-39
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    • 2009
  • Compulsive consumption is regarded as a global phenomenon that can adversely affect consumer well-being. Although the topic has been studied in different cultural settings, we have seen relatively little theory development and explanations of compulsive behavior Nearly all previous empirical studies attempt to explain this behavior by correlating measures of compulsive behavior with independent variables taken within the same time frame. However, recent developments in social sciences suggest that such a phenomenon may best understood in the context of the person's earlier-in-life experiences. Using the life course paradigm as an overarching framework, the present research extends previous work on this topic. Following hypotheses were drawn from literature review: H1: The earlier in childhood and adolescence a person experiences family dislocation, the greater his or her likelihood of exhibiting compulsive behaviors in adulthood. H2: The earlier in life the young person experienced family dislocation, the greater the number of family disruption events the young person experienced prior entering adulthood years. H3: Family dislocation leads to (a) increased frequency of socio.oriented family communications and (b) decreased frequency of concept-oriented family communication. H4: Young adults who were raised in families characterized by a strong socio-oriented communication structure are more likely to exhibit compulsive consumption tendencies than those who were raised in families characterized by a weak socio-oriented family communication structure. H5: Young adults who were raised in families characterized by a strong concept-oriented communication structure are less likely to exhibit compulsive consumption tendencies than those who were raised in families characterized by a week concept-oriented family communication structure. H6: The relationship between family disruption events experienced during adolescence and perceived stressfulness of these events is moderated by (a) global family support, (b) emotional family support, and (c) material family support. Those reporting higher levels of family support as teenagers are less likely to report experiencing stress due to family disruption events. H7: Perceived stressfulness of family disruption events experienced during adolescent years are associated with compulsive consumption tendencies in early adulthood. H8: The greater the number of family disruption events young adults experienced during their adolescent years the more frequent was their communication about consumption with their peers. H9: The more frequent was the young persons' communication with their peers about consumption during their adolescent years, the more likely they are to report compulsive buying tendencies as young adults. We use a sample of 120 Thai undergraduate students attending classes taught in English as part of a four-year international program. Product-moment correlations, hierarchical regression analysis and partial correlation were used to analyze data. Results of testing hypotheses showed that hypothesis 2, 4, 7 and 9 were supported and hypothesis 1, 3, 5, 6 and 8 were not supported. Our study did not find a significant relationship between the age when a person experienced family dislocation and their compulsive behavior tendencies expressed as young adults. We did not find a significant relationship between family dislocation and family communication structures. But we found a significant positive relationship between socio-oriented communication structure and compulsive buying and a significant relationship between our peer communication and compulsive buying measures. Also we found perceived stressfulness due to the disruptive events to have a significant positive relationship between the perceived stressfulness and compulsive buying. Implications from these findings, limitations of this research and future research suggestions were discussed.

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