• Title/Summary/Keyword: growth projection

Search Result 72, Processing Time 0.019 seconds

Sensitivity Analysis for Reliability Growth Projection Model based on NHPP (NHPP 기반의 신뢰성 성장 예측 모델에 대한 민감도 분석)

  • Cho, K.H.;Lee, H.C.;Jang, J.S.;Park, S.C.
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
    • /
    • v.16 no.4
    • /
    • pp.305-312
    • /
    • 2016
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to provide a sensitivity analysis of system reliability for recognizing effectiveness of changing of BD mode failures using reliability growth projection model based on NHPP. Methods: Crow extended reliability projection model (CERPM) is used to analyze the changing of two factors 1) the number of BD mode failures, 2) fix effectiveness factor (FEF) values. Results: The system reliability has increased in accordance with the number of BD mode failures and FEF values have increased. Conclusion: It is necessary to design failure modes and FEF values to supervise the reliability.

Crack growth life model for fatigue susceptible structural components in aging aircraft

  • Chou, Karen C.;Cox, Glenn C.;Lockwood, Allison M.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
    • /
    • v.17 no.1
    • /
    • pp.29-50
    • /
    • 2004
  • A total life model was developed to assess the service life of aging aircraft. The primary focus of this paper is the development of crack growth life projection using the response surface method. Crack growth life projection is a necessary component of the total life model. The study showed that the number of load cycles N needed for a crack to propagate to a specified size can be linearly related to the geometric parameter, material, and stress level of the component considered when all the variables are transformed to logarithmic values. By the Central Limit theorem, the ln N was approximated by Gaussian distribution. This Gaussian model compared well with the histograms of the number of load cycles generated from simulated crack growth curves. The outcome of this study will aid engineers in designing their crack growth experiments to develop the stochastic crack growth models for service life assessments.

A Comparison of Reliability Growth Assessment Models Centered on MIL-HDBK-189C (MIL-HDBK-189C의 신뢰성성장 평가 모델의 비교)

  • Kim, Myung Soo;Chung, Jae Woo;Lee, Jong Sin
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
    • /
    • v.13 no.3
    • /
    • pp.217-227
    • /
    • 2013
  • Reliability growth is defined as the positive improvement in a reliability parameter over a period of time due to implementation of corrective actions to system design, operation or maintenance procedures, or the associated manufacturing process. In recent, the importance of reliability growth management has emerged in the military authority and industries. For effective application of reliability growth models, it is necessary to understand their characteristics and differences. This paper presents the concepts of reliability growth management and compares the features of reliability tracking and projection models centered on MIL-HDBK-189C for selecting the appropriate model for an one-shot system under development.

Selection of Growth projection Intervals for Improving Parameter Estimation of Stand Growth Model (임분(林分) 생장(生長) 모델의 모수(母數) 추정(推定) 능력(能力) 향상(向上)을 위(爲)한 생장(生長) 측정간격(測定間隔)의 선택(選擇))

  • Lee, Sang Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
    • /
    • v.87 no.1
    • /
    • pp.40-49
    • /
    • 1998
  • This study aimed to provide a strategy for selecting an adequate combination of growth intervals(i.e. times between age $T_1$ and age $T_2$) to be used to improve the reality of the growth equation through obtaining better precision of parameter estimates. Variety of growth functions were fitted to the data and one equation which best fitted the data was chosen for the analysis. A modified Schumacher projection equation, selected as a best equation, that included dummy variables representing locality as a predictor variable was fitted for basal area and height equations with nonoverlapping growth interval and all possible growth interval data sets of Douglas-fir(Pseudotsuga menziesii Mirb.Franco). The data were measured in all parts of the South Island of New Zealand. It was found that the precision of parameter estimates was increased in both basal area and height equations by using data set which contained a range of measurement intervals from short to long term.

  • PDF

Analysis on the Drivers of Growth in Forestry Sector and Growth Projection through Growth Accounting Analysis (성장회계분석을 통한 임산업의 성장요인분석과 전망)

  • Lee, Yohan;Jung, Jaeho;Min, KyungTaek
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
    • /
    • v.104 no.4
    • /
    • pp.677-684
    • /
    • 2015
  • This study analyzed a long-run growth trend of the forestry sector in the Republic of Korea, and forecasted the potential growth in the future after investigating main drivers of growth in the forestry sector through growth accounting analysis. Based on results, we finally suggested a direction to go forward in order to achieve a sustainable growth in the field. After Asia financial crisis, the growth rate of the forestry sector was getting stable with the fast recovery of Korean economy. While the main drivers of growth in the field was labor and capital accumulation in 1980s and 1990s, the main driver of growth has been the increment of capital accumulation since 2000. As the result of our analysis for forecasting the potential growth in the field, the contribution of labor, capital, TFP in total growth is expected as 0.09%, 1.58%, and -0.01%, respectively. The potential growth rate of the forestry sector during 2012-2020 is predicted to be 1.65% and the total production will become 36.25 trillion won.

Development of a Demand Model for Physician Workforce Projection on Regional Inequity Problem in Korea Using System Dynamics (시스템 다이내믹스를 활용한 지역별 국내 의사인력 수요에 대한 추계모델 개발)

  • Lee, Gyeong Min;Yoo, Ki-Bong
    • Health Policy and Management
    • /
    • v.32 no.1
    • /
    • pp.73-93
    • /
    • 2022
  • Background: Appropriate physician workforce projection through reasonable discussions and decisions with a broad view on supply and demand of the workforce, thus, is very important for high-quality healthcare services. The study expects to provide preliminary research data on the workforce diagnosis standard model for Korean physician workforce policy decision through more flexible and objective physician workforce projection in reflection of diverse changes in healthcare policy and sociodemographic environments. Methods: A low flow rate through the causal map was developed, and an objective workforce demand projection from 2019 to 2040 was conducted. In addition, projections by scenarios under various situations were conducted with the low flow rate developed in the study. Lastly, the demand projection of the physician workforce by region of 17 cities and provinces was conducted. Results: First, demand of physicians in 2019 was 110,665, 113,450 in 2020, 129,496 in 2025, 146,837 in 2030, 163,719 in 2035, and 179,288 in 2040. Second, the scenario for the retirement of baby boomers led to a decrease in the growth rate due to time delay. Third, Seoul and Gyeonggi-do account for a high percentage of demand, a very high upward trend was identified in Gyeonggi-do, and as a result, the projection showed that the demand of the physician workforce in Gyeonggi-do would worsen over time. Conclusion: This study is meaningful in that rational and collective physician workforce supply and demand and its imbalance in workforce distribution were verified through various projections by scenarios and regions of Korea with System Dynamics.

MEASURING CROWN PROJECTION AREA AND TREE HEIGHT USINGLIDAR

  • Kwak Doo-Ahn;Lee Woo-Kyun;Son Min-Ho
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
    • /
    • 2005.10a
    • /
    • pp.515-518
    • /
    • 2005
  • LiDAR(Light Detection and Ranging) with digital aerial photograph can be used to measure tree growth factors like total height, height of clear-length, dbh(diameter at breast height) and crown projection area. Delineating crown is an important process for identifying and numbering individual trees. Crown delineation can be done by watershed method to segment basin according to elevation values of DSMmax produced by LiDAR. Digital aerial photograph can be used to validate the crown projection area using LiDAR. And tree height can be acquired by image processing using window filter$(3cell\times3cell\;or\;5cell\times5cell)$ that compares grid elevation values of individual crown segmented by watershed.

  • PDF

Study on surface etching and projection formation to control the glare of display glass (디스플레이용 유리의 눈부심 현상 억제를 위한 표면 에칭 및 돌기 형성에 관한 연구)

  • Woo, Heesu;Kang, Seung-Gu
    • Journal of the Korean Crystal Growth and Crystal Technology
    • /
    • v.30 no.6
    • /
    • pp.251-257
    • /
    • 2020
  • In order to quickly and clearly recognize characters or images through display glass, glare of the glass must be suppressed. In this study, we tried to reduce glare by analyzing changes in glass surface shape and optical properties through etching process. The etching process was performed as a function of concentrations of the etching solutions, BOE and HF. During the etching process, a compound containing F ion was generated on the surface of the glass, forming an irregular pattern in the form of a projection, and thus various optical properties of the glass were changed; reflectance of 2.5~4.6 %, haze of 4.5~6.6 %, transmittance of 77~92 %, and gloss of 82~107 GU. As a result, optimum etching condition was obtained to minimize the loss of other optical properties while suppressing glare of the glass.

A STUDY OF CONDYLAR POSITIONAL CHANCES BEFORE & AFTER STABILIZATION SPLINT THERAPY (교합안정장치 사용 전, 후의 하악과두 위치 변화에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Suk-Kyung;Yoon, Young-Jooh;Kim, Kwang-Won
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
    • /
    • v.28 no.1 s.66
    • /
    • pp.113-122
    • /
    • 1998
  • Stabilization splint therapy Precedes orthodontic intervention to enable the operator to find a 'true' centric(which is stable and comfortable), to test the patient's response to a change in the occlusion, prior to embarking upon a complex course of occlusal therapy : and finally, to see if the centric relation position can be stabilized. For this study, 47 malocclusion Patients enrolled for orthodontic treatment at the Department of Orthodontics, College of Dentistry, Chosun University comprised the malocclusion group, little variation of growth factor by the second molar eruption. They had Cr-Co discrepancy beyond normal range. For each patients the stabilization splint with mutually protected type of occlusal scheme was applied for 3 months. Condylar positions in CR and CO were measured using Penadent articulators, Panadent condylar position indicator(CPI), and transcranial projection before & after stabilization splint therapy. On the basis of this study, the results of this study were as follows 1. In all samples using CPI, there were statistical significances in CR-CO discrepancy(p<0.001) both before 8t after stabilization splint therapy. 2. In Rt and Lt+Rt/2 of superior joint space using transcranial projection, there were statistical significances in CR-CO discrepancy({<0.05) before & after stabilization splint therapy. 3. In supero-inferior components using CPI, there were statistical significances in CR-CO discrepancy(p<0.01) before & after stabilization splint therapy. 4. In all components except Rt using transcranial projection, there were no statistical significances in CR-CO discrepancy(p>0.05) before & after stabilization splint therapy. To sum up, CPI might be more effective than transcranial projection to reveal the changes between CR-CO discrepancies and stabilization splint might be more useful appliance for displaying the vertical changes, than the antero-posterior changes, of condylar position.

  • PDF

Reliability growth management for the delayed fixes and development cost in the reliability growth development phase (신뢰성 성장 개발단계에서 지연수정과 개발시험비용을 고려한 신뢰성 성장관리)

  • Kim, Jun-Hong;Jung, Won
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
    • /
    • v.5 no.3
    • /
    • pp.381-391
    • /
    • 2005
  • The level of reliability attained largely depends upon the investment in reliability growth programs during development phase. In order to find the relationship between reliability growth test time and BRTE(basic reliability tasks effectiveness) in a reliability improvement program that minimizes LCC in which contains the reliability growth cost, repair and replacement costs, and spare parts ordering costs in service with given service rate in management policy, the growth rate has been suggested proper LCC versus growth rate. This model employs the reliability growth projection with delayed fixes in avionic equipment based on AMSAA.

  • PDF