• Title/Summary/Keyword: goodness of fit criteria

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A Method for Selecting Software Reliability Growth Models Using Partial Data (부분 데이터를 이용한 신뢰도 성장 모델 선택 방법)

  • Park, Yong Jun;Min, Bup-Ki;Kim, Hyeon Soo
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.9-18
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    • 2015
  • Software Reliability Growth Models (SRGMs) are useful for determining the software release date or additional testing efforts by using software failure data. It is not appropriate for a SRGM to apply to all software. And besides a large number of SRGMs have already been proposed to estimate software reliability measures. Therefore selection of an optimal SRGM for use in a particular case has been an important issue. The existing methods for selecting a SRGM use the entire collected failure data. However, initial failure data may not affect the future failure occurrence and, in some cases, it results in the distorted result when evaluating the future failure. In this paper, we suggest a method for selecting a SRGM based on the evaluation goodness-of-fit using partial data. Our approach uses partial data except for inordinately unstable failure data in the entire failure data. We will find a portion of data used to select a SRGM through the comparison between the entire failure data and the partial failure data excluded the initial failure data with respect to the predictive ability of future failures. To justify our approach this paper shows that the predictive ability of future failures using partial data is more accurate than using the entire failure data with the real collected failure data.

The Effect of the Context Awareness Value on the Smartphone Adopter' Advertising Attitude (스마트폰광고 이용자의 광고태도에 영향을 미치는 상황인지가치에 관한 연구)

  • Yang, Chang-Gyu;Lee, Eui-Bang;Huang, Yunchu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.73-91
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    • 2013
  • Advertising market has been facing new challenges due to dramatic change in advertising channels and the advent of innovative media such as mobile devices. Recent research related to mobile devices is mainly focused on the fact that mobile devices could identify users'physical location in real-time, and this sheds light on how location-based technology is utilized to achieve competitive advantage in advertising market. With the introduction of smartphone, the functionality of smartphone has become much more diverse and context awareness is one of the areas that require further study. This work analyses the influence of context awareness value resulted from the transformation of advertising channel in mobile communication market, and our research result reflects recent trend in advertising market environment which is not considered in previous studies. Many constructs has intensively been studied in the context of advertising channel in traditional marketing environment, and entertainment, irritation and information are considered to be the most widely accepted variables that has positive relationship with advertising value. Also, in smartphone advertisement, four main dimensions of context awareness value are recognized: identification, activity, timing and location. In this study, we assume that these four constructs has positive relationship with context awareness value. Finally, we propose that advertising value and context awareness value positively influence smartphone advertising attitude. Partial Least Squares (PLS) structural model is used in our theoretical research model to test proposed hypotheses. A well designed survey is conducted for college students in Korea, and reliability, convergent validity and discriminant validity of constructs and measurement indicators are carefully evaluated and the results show that reliability and validity are confirmed according to predefined statistical criteria. Goodness-of-fit of our research model is also supported. In summary, the results collectively suggest good measurement properties for the proposed research model. The research outcomes are as follows. First, information has positive impact on advertising value while entertainment and irritation have no significant impact. Information, entertainment and irritation together account for 38.8% of advertising value. Second, along with the change in advertising market due to the advent of smartphone, activity, timing and location have positive impact on context awareness value while identification has no significant impact. In addition, identification, activity, location and time together account for 46.3% of context awareness value. Third, advertising value and context awareness value both positively influence smartphone advertising attitude, and these two constructs explain 31.7% of the variability of smartphone advertising attitude. The theoretical implication of our research is as follows. First, the influence of entertainment and irritation is reduced which are known to be crucial factors according to previous studies related to advertising value, while the influence of information is increased. It indicates that smartphone users are not likely interested in entertaining effect of smartphone advertisement, and are insensitive to the inconvenience due to smartphone advertisement. Second, in today' ubiquitous computing environment, it is effective to provide differentiated advertising service by utilizing smartphone users'context awareness values such as identification, activity, timing and location in order to achieve competitive business advantage in advertising market. For practical implications, enterprises should provide valuable and useful information that might attract smartphone users by adopting differentiation strategy as smartphone users are sensitive to the information provided via smartphone. Also enterprises not only provide useful information but also recognize and utilize smarphone users' unique characteristics and behaviors by increasing context awareness values. In summary, our result implies that smartphone advertisement should be optimized by considering the needed information of smartphone users in order to maximize advertisement effect.

An Empirical Study on Statistical Optimization Model for the Portfolio Construction of Sponsored Search Advertising(SSA) (키워드검색광고 포트폴리오 구성을 위한 통계적 최적화 모델에 대한 실증분석)

  • Yang, Hognkyu;Hong, Juneseok;Kim, Wooju
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.167-194
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    • 2019
  • This research starts from the four basic concepts of incentive incompatibility, limited information, myopia and decision variable which are confronted when making decisions in keyword bidding. In order to make these concept concrete, four framework approaches are designed as follows; Strategic approach for the incentive incompatibility, Statistical approach for the limited information, Alternative optimization for myopia, and New model approach for decision variable. The purpose of this research is to propose the statistical optimization model in constructing the portfolio of Sponsored Search Advertising (SSA) in the Sponsor's perspective through empirical tests which can be used in portfolio decision making. Previous research up to date formulates the CTR estimation model using CPC, Rank, Impression, CVR, etc., individually or collectively as the independent variables. However, many of the variables are not controllable in keyword bidding. Only CPC and Rank can be used as decision variables in the bidding system. Classical SSA model is designed on the basic assumption that the CPC is the decision variable and CTR is the response variable. However, this classical model has so many huddles in the estimation of CTR. The main problem is the uncertainty between CPC and Rank. In keyword bid, CPC is continuously fluctuating even at the same Rank. This uncertainty usually raises questions about the credibility of CTR, along with the practical management problems. Sponsors make decisions in keyword bids under the limited information, and the strategic portfolio approach based on statistical models is necessary. In order to solve the problem in Classical SSA model, the New SSA model frame is designed on the basic assumption that Rank is the decision variable. Rank is proposed as the best decision variable in predicting the CTR in many papers. Further, most of the search engine platforms provide the options and algorithms to make it possible to bid with Rank. Sponsors can participate in the keyword bidding with Rank. Therefore, this paper tries to test the validity of this new SSA model and the applicability to construct the optimal portfolio in keyword bidding. Research process is as follows; In order to perform the optimization analysis in constructing the keyword portfolio under the New SSA model, this study proposes the criteria for categorizing the keywords, selects the representing keywords for each category, shows the non-linearity relationship, screens the scenarios for CTR and CPC estimation, selects the best fit model through Goodness-of-Fit (GOF) test, formulates the optimization models, confirms the Spillover effects, and suggests the modified optimization model reflecting Spillover and some strategic recommendations. Tests of Optimization models using these CTR/CPC estimation models are empirically performed with the objective functions of (1) maximizing CTR (CTR optimization model) and of (2) maximizing expected profit reflecting CVR (namely, CVR optimization model). Both of the CTR and CVR optimization test result show that the suggested SSA model confirms the significant improvements and this model is valid in constructing the keyword portfolio using the CTR/CPC estimation models suggested in this study. However, one critical problem is found in the CVR optimization model. Important keywords are excluded from the keyword portfolio due to the myopia of the immediate low profit at present. In order to solve this problem, Markov Chain analysis is carried out and the concept of Core Transit Keyword (CTK) and Expected Opportunity Profit (EOP) are introduced. The Revised CVR Optimization model is proposed and is tested and shows validity in constructing the portfolio. Strategic guidelines and insights are as follows; Brand keywords are usually dominant in almost every aspects of CTR, CVR, the expected profit, etc. Now, it is found that the Generic keywords are the CTK and have the spillover potentials which might increase consumers awareness and lead them to Brand keyword. That's why the Generic keyword should be focused in the keyword bidding. The contribution of the thesis is to propose the novel SSA model based on Rank as decision variable, to propose to manage the keyword portfolio by categories according to the characteristics of keywords, to propose the statistical modelling and managing based on the Rank in constructing the keyword portfolio, and to perform empirical tests and propose a new strategic guidelines to focus on the CTK and to propose the modified CVR optimization objective function reflecting the spillover effect in stead of the previous expected profit models.