• Title/Summary/Keyword: global climate model

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A study on the derivation and evaluation of flow duration curve (FDC) using deep learning with a long short-term memory (LSTM) networks and soil water assessment tool (SWAT) (LSTM Networks 딥러닝 기법과 SWAT을 이용한 유량지속곡선 도출 및 평가)

  • Choi, Jung-Ryel;An, Sung-Wook;Choi, Jin-Young;Kim, Byung-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.spc1
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    • pp.1107-1118
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    • 2021
  • Climate change brought on by global warming increased the frequency of flood and drought on the Korean Peninsula, along with the casualties and physical damage resulting therefrom. Preparation and response to these water disasters requires national-level planning for water resource management. In addition, watershed-level management of water resources requires flow duration curves (FDC) derived from continuous data based on long-term observations. Traditionally, in water resource studies, physical rainfall-runoff models are widely used to generate duration curves. However, a number of recent studies explored the use of data-based deep learning techniques for runoff prediction. Physical models produce hydraulically and hydrologically reliable results. However, these models require a high level of understanding and may also take longer to operate. On the other hand, data-based deep-learning techniques offer the benefit if less input data requirement and shorter operation time. However, the relationship between input and output data is processed in a black box, making it impossible to consider hydraulic and hydrological characteristics. This study chose one from each category. For the physical model, this study calculated long-term data without missing data using parameter calibration of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a physical model tested for its applicability in Korea and other countries. The data was used as training data for the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) data-based deep learning technique. An anlysis of the time-series data fond that, during the calibration period (2017-18), the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and the determinanation coefficient for fit comparison were high at 0.04 and 0.03, respectively, indicating that the SWAT results are superior to the LSTM results. In addition, the annual time-series data from the models were sorted in the descending order, and the resulting flow duration curves were compared with the duration curves based on the observed flow, and the NSE for the SWAT and the LSTM models were 0.95 and 0.91, respectively, and the determination coefficients were 0.96 and 0.92, respectively. The findings indicate that both models yield good performance. Even though the LSTM requires improved simulation accuracy in the low flow sections, the LSTM appears to be widely applicable to calculating flow duration curves for large basins that require longer time for model development and operation due to vast data input, and non-measured basins with insufficient input data.

Long-term Predictability for El Nino/La Nina using PNU/CME CGCM (PNU/CME CGCM을 이용한 엘니뇨/라니냐 장기 예측성 연구)

  • Jeong, Hye-In;Ahn, Joong-Bae
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.170-177
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    • 2007
  • In this study, the long-term predictability of El Nino and La Nina events of Pusan National University Coupled General Circulation Model(PNU/CME CGCM) developed from a Research and Development Grant funded by Korea Meteorology Administration(KMA) was examined in terms of the correlation coefficients of the sea surface temperature between the model and observation and skill scores at the tropical Pacific. For the purpose, long-term global climate was hindcasted using PNU/CME CGCM for 12 months starting from April, July, October and January(APR RUN, JUL RUN, OCT RUN and JAN RUN, respectively) of each and every years between 1979 and 2004. Each 12-month hindcast consisted of 5 ensemble members. Relatively high correlation was maintained throughout the 12-month lead hindcasts at the equatorial Pacific for the four RUNs starting at different months. It is found that the predictability of our CGCM in forecasting equatorial SST anomalies is more pronounced within 6-month of lead time, in particular. For the assessment of model capability in predicting El Nino and La Nina, various skill scores such as Hit rates and False Alarm rate are calculated. According to the results, PNU/CME CGCM has a good predictability in forecasting warm and cold events, in spite of relatively poor capability in predicting normal state of equatorial Pacific. The predictability of our CGCM was also compared with those of other CGCMs participating DEMETER project. The comparative analysis also illustrated that our CGCM has reasonable long-term predictability comparable to the DEMETER participating CGCMs. As a conclusion, PNU/CME CGCM can predict El Nino and La Nina events at least 12 months ahead in terms of NIino 3.4 SST anomaly, showing much better predictability within 6-month of leading time.

Estimation of Precipitable Water from the GMS-5 Split Window Data (GMS-5 Split Window 자료를 이용한 가강수량 산출)

  • 손승희;정효상;김금란;이정환
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.53-68
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    • 1998
  • Observation of hydrometeors' behavior in the atmosphere is important to understand weather and climate. By conventional observations, we can get the distribution of water vapor at limited number of points on the earth. In this study, the precipitable water has been estimated from the split window channel data on GMS-5 based upon the technique developed by Chesters et al.(1983). To retrieve the precipitable water, water vapor absorption parameter depending on filter function of sensor has been derived using the regression analysis between the split window channel data and the radiosonde data observed at Osan, Pohang, Kwangiu and Cheju staions for 4 months. The air temperature of 700 hPa from the Global Spectral Model of Korea Meteorological Administration (GSM/KMA) has been used as mean air temperature for single layer radiation model. The retrieved precipitable water for the period from August 1996 through December 1996 are compared to radiosonde data. It is shown that the root mean square differences between radiosonde observations and the GMS-5 retrievals range from 0.65 g/$cm^2$ to 1.09 g/$cm^2$ with correlation coefficient of 0.46 on hourly basis. The monthly distribution of precipitable water from GMS-5 shows almost good representation in large scale. Precipitable water is produced 4 times a day at Korea Meteorological Administration in the form of grid point data with 0.5 degree lat./lon. resolution. The data can be used in the objective analysis for numerical weather prediction and to increase the accuracy of humidity analysis especially under clear sky condition. And also, the data is a useful complement to existing data set for climatological research. But it is necessary to get higher correlation between radiosonde observations and the GMS-5 retrievals for operational applications.

Effects of High Temperature and Drought on Yield and Quality of Soybean (고온과 한발이 콩의 수량 및 품질에 미치는 영향)

  • Shin, Pyeong;Sang, Wan-Gyu;Kim, Jun-Hwan;Lee, Yun-ho;Baek, Jae-Kyeong;Kwon, Dong-Won;Cho, Jung-Il;Seo, Myung-Chul
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.65 no.4
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    • pp.346-352
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    • 2020
  • Currently, many studies are being conducted to cope with climate changes due to global warming and abnormal weather. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of weather on the growth, yield components, and quality of soybeans using weather data from 2017 and 2018. The average temperature in 2018 was higher than that in 2017 from R1 to R5 of the growth stage for all cultivars. On the other hand, precipitation in 2018 was reduced compared to that in 2017 for Daewon and Daepung-2ho. It was observed that the flowering date in 2018 was earlier than that in 2017 for Daewon and Daepung-2ho, but the flowering date for Pungsannamul in 2018 was similar to that in 2017. Simulating soil water content with the estimation model (AFKAE0.5) determined that there were fewer drought dates in 2017 than those in 2018, and drought lasted from R1 to early R5 of the growth stage in 2018. Soybean growth in 2017 was better than that in 2018, and seed yield and 100-seed weight of soybean were higher in 2017 than those in 2018 for all cultivars. The seed size in 2017 was larger than that in 2018 for all cultivars. Oil content in 2017 was higher than that in 2018; in particular, the difference between both years was observed for Daewon and Daepung-2ho. Protein content was higher in 2018 than that in 2017; however, there were different levels for each cultivar. Thus, these results indicate that the yield component and quality of soybeans are affected by high temperature and drought.

A Study on the Effects of Meterological Factors on the Distribution of Agricultural Products: Focused on the Distribution of Chinese Cabbages (기상요인이 농산물 유통에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구: 배추 유통 사례를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Hyunjoung;Hong, Jinhwan
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.59-83
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    • 2012
  • Agriculture is a primary industry that influenced by the weather or meterological factors more than other industry. Global warming and worldwide climate changes, and unusual weather phenomena are fatal in agricultural industry and human life. Therefore, many previous studies have been made to find the relationship between weather and the productivity of agriculture. Meterological factors also influence on the distribution of agricultural product. For example, price of agricultural product is determined in the market, and also influenced by the weather of the market. However, there is only a few study was made to find this link. The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of meterological factors on the distribution of agricultural products, focusing on the distribution of chinese cabbages. Chinese cabbage is a main ingredient of Kimchi, and basic essential vegetable in Korean dinner table. However, the production of chinese cabbages is influenced by weather and very fluctuating so that the variation of its price is so unstable. Therefore, both consumers and farmers do not feel comfortable at the unstable price of chinese cabbages. In this study, we analyze the real transaction data of chinese cabbage in wholesale markets and meterological factors depending on the variety and geography. We collect and analyze data of meterological factors such as temperatures, humidity, cloudiness, rainfall, snowfall, wind speed, insolation, sunshine duration in producing and consuming region of chinese cabbages. The result of this study shows that the meterological factors such as temperature and humidity significantly influence on the volume and price of chinese cabbage transaction in wholesale market. Especially, the weather of consuming region has greater correlation effects on transaction than that of producing region in all types of chinese cabbages. Among the whole agricultural lifecycle of chinese cabbages, 'seeding - harvest - shipment - wholesale', meterological factors such as temperature and rainfall in shipment and wholesale period are significantly correlated with transaction volume and price of crops. Based on the result of correlation analysis, we make a regression analysis to verify the meterological factors' effects on the volume and price of chines cabbage transaction in wholesale market. The results of stepwise regression analysis are shown in

    and
    . The type of chinese cabbages are categorized by 5 types, i.e. alpine, gimjang for winter, spring, summer, and winter crop, and all of the regression models are shown significant relationship. In addition, meterological factors in shipment and wholesale period are entered more in regression model than those in seeding and harvest period. This result implies that weather in consuming region is also important in the distribution of chinese cabbages. Based on the result of this study, we find several implications and recommendations for policy makers of agricultural product distribution. The goal of agricultural product distribution policy is to insure proper price and production cost for farmers and provide proper price and quality, and stable supply for consumers. Therefore, coping with the uncertainty of weather is very essential to make a fruitful effect of the policy. In reality, very big part of consumer price of chinese cabbage is made up of the margin of intermediaries, because they take the risk. In addition, policy makers make efforts for farmers to utilize AWIS (Agricultural Weather Information System). In order to do that, it should integrate the relevant information including distribution and marketing as well as production. Offering a consulting service to farmers about weather management is also expected to be a good option in agriculture and weather industry. Reflecting on the result of this study, the distribution authorities can offer the guideline for the timing and volume of harvest, and it is expected to contribute to the stable equilibrium of supply and demand of agricultural products.

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  • Differential Susceptibility to High Temperature and Variation of Seasonal Occurrence between Spodoptera exigua and Plutella xylostella (파밤나방과 배추좀나방의 고온 감수성 차이와 연중 발생 변이)

    • Kim, Minhyun;Lee, Seunghee;Kim, Yonggyun
      • Korean journal of applied entomology
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      • v.55 no.1
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      • pp.17-26
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      • 2016
    • Climate change has been regarded as one of main factors to change Korean insect pest fauna. Especially, a global warming model predicts to expand habitat for insect pests originated from tropical or subtropical regions. Two insect pests, the beet armyworm (Spodoptera exigua) and the diamondback moth (Plutella xylostella), are known to overwinter in some greenhouse conditions without diapause induction in Korea. There was a clear difference between these two insects in seasonal occurrence. P. xylostella occurred only at early spring and fall seasons, but did not occur during summer. In contrast, S. exigua maintained their occurrence from late spring to fall seasons. This study set up a hypothesis that the difference in the seasonal occurrence may be resulted from variation in susceptibility to high temperature. To test the hypothesis, heat tolerance was compared between these two insects. Exposure to $42^{\circ}C$ for 40 min killed 100% individuals of P. xylostella larvae. However, most larvae of S. exigua survived in response to $42^{\circ}C$ even for 80 min. Heat tolerance varied among developmental stages in both insects. Highest tolerant stages were $4^{th}$ instar larvae and adults for P. xylostella, but $1^{st}$ instar larvae for S. exigua. Pre-exposure to $37^{\circ}C$ for 30 min significantly increased heat tolerance in both insects. Induction of heat tolerance accompanied with significant increase of glycerol contents in the hemolymph in both insects and up-regulation of three heat shock protein expressions in S. exigua. These results suggest that the differential susceptibility to high temperature explains the disappearance of P. xylostella during summer, at which S. exigua maintains its occurrence.

    Evaluation of Disaster Resilience Scorecard for the UN International Safety City Certification of Incheon Metropolitan City (인천시 UN 국제안전도시 인증을 위한 재난 복원력 스코어카드 평가)

    • Kim, Yong-Moon;Lee, Tae-Shik
      • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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      • v.13 no.1
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      • pp.59-75
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      • 2020
    • This study is a case study that applied 'UNDRR's Urban Disaster Resilience Scorecard', an evaluation tool necessary for Incheon Metropolitan City to be certified as an international safe city. I would like to present an example that the results derived from this scorecard contributed to the Incheon Metropolitan City Disaster Reduction Plan. Of course, the Disaster Resilience Scorecard can't provide a way to improve the resilience of every disaster facing the city. However, it is to find the weakness of the resilience that the city faces, and to propose a solution to reduce the city's disaster risk. This is to help practitioners to recognize the disaster risks that Incheon Metropolitan City faces. In addition, the solution recommended by UNDRR was suggested to provide resilience in areas vulnerable to disasters. It was confirmed that this process can contribute to improving the disaster resilience of Incheon Metropolitan City. UNDRR has been spreading 'Climate Change, Disaster-resistant City Creation Campaign', aka MCR (Making Cities Resilient) Campaign, to cities all over the world since 2010 to reduce global cities' disasters. By applying the disaster relief guidelines adopted by UNDRR, governments, local governments, and neighboring cities are encouraged to collaborate. As a result of this study, Incheon Metropolitan city's UN Urban Resilience Scorecard was evaluated as a strong resilience field by obtaining scores of 4 or more (4.3~5.0) in 5 of 10 essentials; 1. Prepare organization for disaster resilience and prepare for implementation, 4. Strong resilience Urban development and design pursuit, 5. Preservation of natural cushions to enhance the protection provided by natural ecosystems, 9. Ensure effective disaster preparedness and response, 10. Rapid restoration and better reconstruction. On the other hand, in the other five fields, scores of less than 4 (3.20~3.85) were obtained and evaluated as weak resilience field; 2. Analyze, understand and utilize current and future risk scenarios, 3. Strengthen financial capacity for resilience, 6. Strengthen institutional capacity for resilience, 7. Understanding and strengthening social competence for resilience, 8. Strengthen resilience of infrastructure. In addition, through this study, the risk factors faced by Incheon Metropolitan City could be identified by priority, resilience improvement measures to minimize disaster risks, urban safety-based urban development plans, available disaster reduction resources, and integrated disasters. Measures were prepared.

    The Standard of Judgement on Plagiarism in Research Ethics and the Guideline of Global Journals for KODISA (KODISA 연구윤리의 표절 판단기준과 글로벌 학술지 가이드라인)

    • Hwang, Hee-Joong;Kim, Dong-Ho;Youn, Myoung-Kil;Lee, Jung-Wan;Lee, Jong-Ho
      • Journal of Distribution Science
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      • v.12 no.6
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      • pp.15-20
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      • 2014
    • Purpose - In general, researchers try to abide by the code of research ethics, but many of them are not fully aware of plagiarism, unintentionally committing the research misconduct when they write a research paper. This research aims to introduce researchers a clear and easy guideline at a conference, which helps researchers avoid accidental plagiarism by addressing the issue. This research is expected to contribute building a climate and encouraging creative research among scholars. Research design, data, methodology & Results - Plagiarism is considered a sort of research misconduct along with fabrication and falsification. It is defined as an improper usage of another author's ideas, language, process, or results without giving appropriate credit. Plagiarism has nothing to do with examining the truth or accessing value of research data, process, or results. Plagiarism is determined based on whether a research corresponds to widely-used research ethics, containing proper citations. Within academia, plagiarism goes beyond the legal boundary, encompassing any kind of intentional wrongful appropriation of a research, which was created by another researchers. In summary, the definition of plagiarism is to steal other people's creative idea, research model, hypotheses, methods, definition, variables, images, tables and graphs, and use them without reasonable attribution to their true sources. There are various types of plagiarism. Some people assort plagiarism into idea plagiarism, text plagiarism, mosaic plagiarism, and idea distortion. Others view that plagiarism includes uncredited usage of another person's work without appropriate citations, self-plagiarism (using a part of a researcher's own previous research without proper citations), duplicate publication (publishing a researcher's own previous work with a different title), unethical citation (using quoted parts of another person's research without proper citations as if the parts are being cited by the current author). When an author wants to cite a part that was previously drawn from another source the author is supposed to reveal that the part is re-cited. If it is hard to state all the sources the author is allowed to mention the original source only. Today, various disciplines are developing their own measures to address these plagiarism issues, especially duplicate publications, by requiring researchers to clearly reveal true sources when they refer to any other research. Conclusions - Research misconducts including plagiarism have broad and unclear boundaries which allow ambiguous definitions and diverse interpretations. It seems difficult for researchers to have clear understandings of ways to avoid plagiarism and how to cite other's works properly. However, if guidelines are developed to detect and avoid plagiarism considering characteristics of each discipline (For example, social science and natural sciences might be able to have different standards on plagiarism.) and shared among researchers they will likely have a consensus and understanding regarding the issue. Particularly, since duplicate publications has frequently appeared more than plagiarism, academic institutions will need to provide pre-warning and screening in evaluation processes in order to reduce mistakes of researchers and to prevent duplicate publications. What is critical for researchers is to clearly reveal the true sources based on the common citation rules and to only borrow necessary amounts of others' research.

    Recent Progress in Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Research : A Review of Papers Published in the Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering in 2012 (설비공학 분야의 최근 연구 동향 : 2012년 학회지 논문에 대한 종합적 고찰)

    • Han, Hwataik;Lee, Dae-Young;Kim, Sa Ryang;Kim, Hyun-Jung;Choi, Jong Min;Park, Jun-Seok;Kim, Sumin
      • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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      • v.25 no.6
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      • pp.346-361
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      • 2013
    • This article reviews the papers published in the Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering during 2012. It is intended to understand the status of current research in the areas of heating, cooling, ventilation, sanitation, and indoor environments of buildings and plant facilities. The conclusions are as follows : (1) The research works on thermal and fluid engineering have been reviewed as groups of fluid machinery, pipes and valves, fuel cells and power plants, ground-coupled heat pumps, and general heat and mass transfer systems. Research issues are mainly focused on new and renewable energy systems, such as fuel cells, ocean thermal energy conversion power plants, and ground-coupled heat pump systems. (2) Research works on the heat transfer area have been reviewed in the categories of heat transfer characteristics, pool boiling and condensing heat transfer, and industrial heat exchangers. Researches on heat transfer characteristics included the results for natural convection in a square enclosure with two hot circular cylinders, non-uniform grooved tube considering tube expansion, single-tube annular baffle system, broadcasting LED light with ion wind generator, mechanical property and microstructure of SA213 P92 boiler pipe steel, and flat plate using multiple tripping wires. In the area of pool boiling and condensing heat transfer, researches on the design of a micro-channel heat exchanger for a heat pump, numerical simulation of a heat pump evaporator considering the pressure drop in the distributor and capillary tubes, critical heat flux on a thermoexcel-E enhanced surface, and the performance of a fin-and-tube condenser with non-uniform air distribution and different tube types were actively carried out. In the area of industrial heat exchangers, researches on a plate heat exchanger type dehumidifier, fin-tube heat exchanger, an electric circuit transient analogy model in a vertical closed loop ground heat exchanger, heat transfer characteristics of a double skin window for plant factory, a regenerative heat exchanger depending on its porous structure, and various types of plate heat exchangers were performed. (3) In the field of refrigeration, various studies were executed to improve refrigeration system performance, and to evaluate the applicability of alternative refrigerants and new components. Various topics were presented in the area of refrigeration cycle. Research issues mainly focused on the enhancement of the system performance. In the alternative refrigerant area, studies on CO2, R32/R152a mixture, and R1234yf were performed. Studies on the design and performance analysis of various compressors and evaporator were executed. (4) In building mechanical system research fields, twenty-nine studies were conducted to achieve effective design of mechanical systems, and also to maximize the energy efficiency of buildings. The topics of the studies included heating and cooling, HVAC system, ventilation, renewable energy systems, and lighting systems in buildings. New designs and performance tests using numerical methods and experiments provide useful information and key data, which can improve the energy efficiency of buildings. (5) In the fields of the architectural environment, studies for various purposes, such as indoor environment, building energy, and renewable energy were performed. In particular, building energy-related researches and renewable energy systems have been mainly studied, reflecting interests in global climate change, and efforts to reduce building energy consumption by government and architectural specialists. In addition, many researches have been conducted regarding indoor environments.

    Misconception on the Yellow Sea Warm Current in Secondary-School Textbooks and Development of Teaching Materials for Ocean Current Data Visualization (중등학교 교과서 황해난류 오개념 분석 및 해류 데이터 시각화 수업자료 개발)

    • Su-Ran Kim;Kyung-Ae Park;Do-Seong Byun;Kwang-Young Jeong;Byoung-Ju Choi
      • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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      • v.44 no.1
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      • pp.13-35
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      • 2023
    • Ocean currents play the most important role in causing and controlling global climate change. The water depth of the Yellow Sea is very shallow compared to the East Sea, and the circulation and currents of seawater are quite complicated owing to the influence of various wind fields, ocean currents, and river discharge with low-salinity seawater. The Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC) is one of the most representative currents of the Yellow Sea in winter and is closely related to the weather of the southwest coast of the Korean Peninsula, so it needs to be treated as important in secondary-school textbooks. Based on the 2015 revised national educational curriculum, secondary-school science and earth science textbooks were analyzed for content related to the YSWC. In addition, a questionnaire survey of secondary-school science teachers was conducted to investigate their perceptions of the temporal variability of ocean currents. Most teachers appeared to have the incorrect knowledge that the YSWC moves north all year round to the west coast of the Korean Peninsula and is strong in the summer like a general warm current. The YSWC does not have strong seasonal variability in current strength, unlike the North Korean Cold Current (NKCC), but does not exist all year round and appears only in winter. These errors in teachers' subject knowledge had a background similar to why they had a misconception that the NKCC was strong in winter. Therefore, errors in textbook contents on the YSWC were analyzed and presented. In addition, to develop students' and teachers' data literacy, class materials on the YSWC that can be used in inquiry activities were developed. A graphical user interface (GUI) program that can visualize the sea surface temperature of the Yellow Sea was introduced, and a program displaying the spatial distribution of water temperature and salinity was developed using World Ocean Atlas (WOA) 2018 oceanic in-situ measurements of water temperature and salinity data and ocean numerical model reanalysis field data. This data visualization materials using oceanic data is expected to improve teachers' misunderstandings and serve as an opportunity to cultivate both students and teachers' ocean and data literacy.


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