• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.95.2-95.2
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• 2012

We have compared the geoeffective parameters of halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) to predict geomagnetic storms. For this we consider 50 front-side full halo CMEs whose asymmetric cone model parameters and earthward direction parameter were available. For each CME we use its projected velocity (Vp), radial velocity (Vr), angle between cone axis and sky plane (${\gamma}$) from the cone model, earthward direction parameter (D), source longitude (L), and magnetic field orientation (M) of the CME source region. We make a simple and multiple linear regression analysis to find out the relationship between CME parameters and Dst index. Major results are as follows. (1) $Vr{\times}{\gamma}$ has a higher correlation coefficient (cc = 0.70) with the Dst index than the others. When we make a multiple regression of Dst and two parameters ($Vr{\times}{\gamma}$, D), the correlation coefficient increases from 0.70 to 0.77. (2) Correlation coefficients between Dst index and $Vr{\times}{\gamma}$ have different values depending on M and L. (3) Super geomagnetic storms (Dst ${\leq}$ -200 nT) only appear in the western and southward events. Our results demonstrate that not only the cone model parameters together with the earthward direction parameter improve the relationship between CME parameters and Dst index but also the source longitude and its magnetic field orientation play a significant role in predicting geomagnetic storms.

• Bulletin of the Korean Space Science Society
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• 2010.04a
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• pp.30.2-30.2
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• 2010

It is a mistaken impression that the midlatitude ionosphere was a very stable region with well-known morphology and physical mechanism. However, the large disturbances of midlatitude ionospheric contents in response to global thermospheric changes during geomagnetic storms are reported in recent studies using global GPS TEC map and space-born thermospheric UV images, and its importance get higher with the increasing application areas of space navigation systems and radio communication which are mostly used in the midlatitudes. Positive and negative storm phases are used to describe increase and decrease of ionospheric electron density. Negative storms result generally from the enhanced loss rate of electron density according to the neutral composition changes which are initiated by Joule heating in high-latitudes during geomagnetic storms. In contrast, positive ionospheric storms have not been well understood because of rare measurements to explain the mechanisms. The large enhancements of ground-based GPS TEC in Korea were observed on 8 and 10 November 2004. The positive ionospheric storm was continued except for dawn on 8 November, and its maximum value is ~65 TECU of ~3 times compared with the monthly mean TEC values. The other positive phase on 10 November begin to occur in day sector and lasted for more than 6 hours. The O/N2 ratios from GUVI/TIMED satellite show ~1.2 in northern hemisphere and ~0.3 in southern hemisphere of the northeast Asian sector on 8 and 10 November. We suggest the asymmetric features of O/N2 ratios in the Northeast Asian sector may play an important role in the measured GPS TEC enhancements in Korea because global thermospheric wind circulation can globally change the chemical composition during geomagnetic storms.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.297-304
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• 2015

In this study, we documented the midlatitude F2-layer response to five strong geomagnetic storms with minimum Dst < -150 nT that occurred in solar minimum years using hourly values of the F2-layer critical frequency (foF2) from four ionosondes located in different hemispheres. The results were very limited, but they illustrated some peculiarities in the behavior of the F2-layer storm. During equinox, the characteristic ionospheric disturbance patterns over the Japanese station Wakkanai in the Northern Hemisphere and the Australian station Mundaring in the Southern Hemisphere were consistent with the well-known scenario by $Pr{\ddot{o}}lss$ (1993); however, during a December solstice magnetic storm, both stations did not observe any noticeable positive ionospheric disturbances. Over the "near-pole" European ionosonde, clear positive ionospheric storms were not observed during the events, but the "far-from-pole" Southern Hemisphere station Port Stanley showed prominent enhancements in F2-layer peak electron density in all magnetic storms except one. No event produced noticeable nighttime enhancements in foF2 over all four ionosondes.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.149-157
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• 2014

As the prediction of geomagnetic storms is becoming an important and practical problem, conditions in the Earth's magnetosphere have been studied rigorously in terms of those in the interplanetary space. Another approach to space weather forecast is to deal with it as a probabilistic geomagnetic storm forecasting problem. In this study, we carry out detailed statistical analysis of solar wind parameters and geomagnetic indices examining the dependence of the distribution on the solar cycle and annual variations. Our main findings are as follows: (1) The distribution of parameters obtained via the superimposed epoch method follows the Gaussian distribution. (2) When solar activity is at its maximum the mean value of the distribution is shifted to the direction indicating the intense environment. Furthermore, the width of the distribution becomes wider at its maximum than at its minimum so that more extreme case can be expected. (3) The distribution of some certain heliospheric parameters is less sensitive to the phase of the solar cycle and annual variations. (4) The distribution of the eastward component of the interplanetary electric field BV and the solar wind driving function BV2, however, appears to be all dependent on the solar maximum/minimum, the descending/ascending phases of the solar cycle and the equinoxes/solstices. (5) The distribution of the AE index and the Dst index shares statistical features closely with BV and $BV^2$ compared with other heliospheric parameters. In this sense, BV and $BV^2$ are more robust proxies of the geomagnetic storm. We conclude by pointing out that our results allow us to step forward in providing the occurrence probability of geomagnetic storms for space weather and physical modeling.

• KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.1-9
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• 2019

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.157-166
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• 2008

We have investigated a statistical relationship between sawtooth oscillations and geomagnetic storms during 2000-2004. First of all we selected a total of 154 geomagnetic storms based on the Dst index, and distinguished between different drivers such as Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) and Co-rotating Interaction Region (CIR). Also, we identified a total of 48 sawtooth oscillation events based on geosynchronous energetic particle data for the same 2000-2004 period. We found that out of the 154 storms identified, 47 storms indicated the presence of sawtooth oscillations. Also, all but one sawtooth event identified occurred during a geomagnetic storm interval. It was also found that sawtooth oscillation events occur more frequently for storms driven by CME $({\sim}62%)$ than for storms driven by CIR $({\sim}30%)$. In addition, sawtooth oscillations occurred mainly $({\sim}82%)$ in the main phase of storms for CME-driven storms while they occurred mostly $({\sim}78%)$ during the storm recovery phase for CIR-driven storms. Next we have examined the average characteristics of the Bz component of IMF, and solar wind speed, which were the main components for driving geomagnetic storm. We found that for most of the sawtooth events, the IMF Bz corresponds to -15 to 0 nT and the solar wind speed was in the range of $400{\sim}700km/s$. We found that there was a weak tendency that the number of teeth for a given sawtooth event interval was proportional to the southward IMF Bz magnitude.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.153.2-153.2
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• 2009

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.82.2-82.2
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• 2009

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.51.2-51.2
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• 2010

We have investigated 63 intense geomagnetic storms (Dst $\leq$ -100 nT) that occurred from 1998 to 2006. Using these events, we compared Dst forecast models: Burton et al. (1975), Fenrich and Luhmann (1998), O'Brien and McPherron (2000a), Wang et al. (2003), and Temerin and Li (2002, 2006) models. For comparison, we examined a linear correlation coefficient, RMS error, the difference of Dst minimum value (${\Delta}$peak), and the difference of Dst minimum time (${\Delta}$peak_time) between the observed and the predicted during geomagnetic storm period. As a result, we found that Temerin and Li model is mostly much better than other models. The model produces a linear correlation coefficient of 0.94, a RMS (Root Mean Square) error of 14.89 nT, a MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) of ${\Delta}$peak of 12.54 nT, and a MAD of ${\Delta}$peak_time of 1.44 hour. Also, we classified storm events as five groups according to their interplanetary origin structures: 17 sMC events (IP shock and MC), 18 SH events (sheath field), 10 SH+MC events (Sheath field and MC), 8 CIR events, and 10 nonMC events (non-MC type ICME). We found that Temerin and Li model is also best for all structures. The RMS error and MAD of ${\Delta}$peak of their model depend on their associated interplanetary structures like; 19.1 nT and 16.7 nT for sMC, 12.5 nT and 7.8 nT for SH, 17.6 nT and 15.8 nT for SH+MC, 11.8 nT and 8.6 nT for CIR, and 11.9 nT and 10.5 nT for nonMC. One interesting thing is that MC-associated storms produce larger errors than the other-associated ones. Especially, the values of RMS error and MAD of ${\Delta}$peak of SH structure of Temerin and Li model are very lower than those of other models.

• Bulletin of the Korean Space Science Society
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• 2011.04a
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• pp.27.2-27.2
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• 2011

The Total Electron Content (TEC) measured from Global Positioning System (GPS) can be continuously or peculiarly increased (positive ionospheric storm) or decreased (negative ionospheric storm) with solar and geomagnetic activities as well as the chemical and dynamic processes with thermosphere in the mid-latitudes. The ionospheric storm is not easy to predict owing to its difficult mechanism, and the real-time GPS TEC monitoring may be useful to follow ionospheric response to solar and geomagnetic storms. Korea Astronomy & Space Science Institute has continuously monitor GPS TEC over Korea Peninsula in near real-time of 10 minutes to watch activities. In this presentation, we will report the variation of GPS TEC over Daejeon and JeJu in Korea during the period of solar flare eruption and geomagnetic storm events in 2011. These events in 2011 will be compared with the event in October 2003 and November 2004.