• 제목/요약/키워드: generating index

Search Result 163, Processing Time 0.026 seconds

A hidden Markov model for long term drought forecasting in South Korea

  • Chen, Si;Shin, Ji-Yae;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2015.05a
    • /
    • pp.225-225
    • /
    • 2015
  • Drought events usually evolve slowly in time and their impacts generally span a long period of time. This indicates that the sequence of drought is not completely random. The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a probabilistic model used to represent dependences between invisible hidden states which finally result in observations. Drought characteristics are dependent on the underlying generating mechanism, which can be well modelled by the HMM. This study employed a HMM with Gaussian emissions to fit the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) series and make multi-step prediction to check the drought characteristics in the future. To estimate the parameters of the HMM, we employed a Bayesian model computed via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Since the true number of hidden states is unknown, we fit the model with varying number of hidden states and used reversible jump to allow for transdimensional moves between models with different numbers of states. We applied the HMM to several stations SPI data in South Korea. The monthly SPI data from January 1973 to December 2012 was divided into two parts, the first 30-year SPI data (January 1973 to December 2002) was used for model calibration and the last 10-year SPI data (January 2003 to December 2012) for model validation. All the SPI data was preprocessed through the wavelet denoising and applied as the visible output in the HMM. Different lead time (T= 1, 3, 6, 12 months) forecasting performances were compared with conventional forecasting techniques (e.g., ANN and ARMA). Based on statistical evaluation performance, the HMM exhibited significant preferable results compared to conventional models with much larger forecasting skill score (about 0.3-0.6) and lower Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values (about 0.5-0.9).

  • PDF

Generation of monthly averaged horizontal Radiation based on a regional clearness estimating model (우리나라 지역별 청명도 예측 모델을 이용한 월평균 수평면 일사량 산출)

  • Kim, Jin-Hyo;Kim, Min-Hwi;Kwon, Oh-Hyun;Seok, Yoon-Jin;Jeong, Jae-Weon
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
    • /
    • v.30 no.2
    • /
    • pp.72-80
    • /
    • 2010
  • The main thrust of this paper is to investigate a practical way of generating the monthly averaged daily horizontal solar radiation in Korea. For estimating the horizontal solar radiation, the clearness index($K_T$) and the clearness number($C_N$) which are required for the use of Liu and Jordan's model and ASHRAE Clear Sky model were derived based on the measured weather data. Third-order polynomials returning $K_T$ and��$C_N$ for a given location were derived as a function of cloud amount, month, date, latitude and longitude. The predicted monthly averaged daily horizontal solar radiation values were compared with those acquired from the established design weather data. The MBE(Mean Bias Error) and RMSE (Root Mean Squares for Error) between the predicted values and the measured data were near zero. It means that the suggested third-order polynomials for $K_T$ and $C_N$ have good applicability to Liu and Jordan's model and ASHRAE Clear Sky model.

Human Capital as a Development Factor for Cultural and Creative Industries

  • Horban, Yurii;Dolbenko, Tetiana;Yaroshenko, Tetiana;Sokol, Oleksandr;Miatenko, Nataliia
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
    • /
    • v.21 no.12spc
    • /
    • pp.604-610
    • /
    • 2021
  • Human capital is the defining value of the national economy under market conditions. The manifestation of human capital is realized as an intellectual and creative capital, theoretically grounded and proven. The realization of intellectual capital is realized through the research creativity of scientists and researchers, and creative capital is manifested through artists and thinkers. Accordingly, creativity in market conditions forms a separate source of income and is an essential article in the formation of the GDP of the national economy. This research aims to analyze human capital from the perspective of cultural and creative industries. Research methods: systematization; comparative analysis of individual indicators of advanced countries of the world on the training system; statistical, taking into account macroeconomic indicators to assess the level of national creativity potential; system and logical analysis; method of information synthesis. Research results. The structural and quantitative composition of the factors of intellectual and creative capital formation has been systematized. The article proves that the unique properties of human capital, knowledge, creativity, experience and professional skills are the push factors of creativity development of the national economy and provide the priority development of creative and cultural industry that allows generating the added value on the national scale. The functions of creativity in the sphere of cultural industries are highlighted. It is noted that education and creativity of both intellectual and creative capital are the forming basis. The research of the world's advanced countries on the creativity index has pointed out the Netherlands as the leading country in the quantitative measurement of creativity. The economic development factors of the Netherlands were analyzed from the position of economic creativity, which allowed the formation of a two-factor model providing priority development of creativity in the cultural and creative industries.

Predicting rock brittleness indices from simple laboratory test results using some machine learning methods

  • Davood Fereidooni;Zohre Karimi
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
    • /
    • v.34 no.6
    • /
    • pp.697-726
    • /
    • 2023
  • Brittleness as an important property of rock plays a crucial role both in the failure process of intact rock and rock mass response to excavation in engineering geological and geotechnical projects. Generally, rock brittleness indices are calculated from the mechanical properties of rocks such as uniaxial compressive strength, tensile strength and modulus of elasticity. These properties are generally determined from complicated, expensive and time-consuming tests in laboratory. For this reason, in the present research, an attempt has been made to predict the rock brittleness indices from simple, inexpensive, and quick laboratory test results namely dry unit weight, porosity, slake-durability index, P-wave velocity, Schmidt rebound hardness, and point load strength index using multiple linear regression, exponential regression, support vector machine (SVM) with various kernels, generating fuzzy inference system, and regression tree ensemble (RTE) with boosting framework. So, this could be considered as an innovation for the present research. For this purpose, the number of 39 rock samples including five igneous, twenty-six sedimentary, and eight metamorphic were collected from different regions of Iran. Mineralogical, physical and mechanical properties as well as five well known rock brittleness indices (i.e., B1, B2, B3, B4, and B5) were measured for the selected rock samples before application of the above-mentioned machine learning techniques. The performance of the developed models was evaluated based on several statistical metrics such as mean square error, relative absolute error, root relative absolute error, determination coefficients, variance account for, mean absolute percentage error and standard deviation of the error. The comparison of the obtained results revealed that among the studied methods, SVM is the most suitable one for predicting B1, B2 and B5, while RTE predicts B3 and B4 better than other methods.

Comparing Physicochemical Properties, Fatty Acid Profiles, Amino Acid Composition, and Volatile Compounds in Dry-Cured Loin: The Impact of Different Levels of Proteolysis and Lipid Oxidation

  • Jin-Kyu Seo;Youn Su Lee;Jeong-Uk Eom;Han-Sul Yang
    • Food Science of Animal Resources
    • /
    • v.44 no.1
    • /
    • pp.103-118
    • /
    • 2024
  • The aim of this study is to compare the quality characteristics of dry-cured loins with different levels of proteolysis and lipid oxidation and to investigate the relationship between these factors on quality characteristics. The dry-cured loins were divided into four groups [proteolytic index (PI) and 2-thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) of high levels (HH), PI of high level and TBARS of low level (HL), PI of low level and TBARS of high level (LH), and PI and TBARS of low levels (LL)] based on the proteolysis index and TBARS. Moisture, protein, and fat content were all significantly influenced by proteolysis and lipid oxidation (p<0.05). The total fatty acid content in the high proteolysis groups (HH and HL) was significantly lower than that in the low proteolysis groups (LH and LL; p<0.05). For total free amino acid content, HH was the highest, and LL was the lowest (p<0.05). On the other hand, there was no significant difference between HL and LH (p>0.05). In the amount of total volatile compounds, there was no significant difference between HH and HL (p>0.05), but LH and LL significantly differed (p<0.05). In conclusion, proteolysis and lipid oxidation can influence the quality characteristics of dry-cured loin. Additionally, proteolysis might be as influential in generating volatile compounds as lipid oxidation.

A Literature Review of Performance Determinants of Business Incubator Based on Foreign English Literatures (창업보육 인큐베이터의 성과결정 요인에 관한 문헌연구: 외국 문헌을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Kyoung-Joo;Choi, Jong-In
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
    • /
    • v.19 no.3
    • /
    • pp.115-140
    • /
    • 2011
  • The fact that innovation activities of venture firms and start-ups play crucial role in driving industrial development and economic growth has significantly increased the importance of business incubator and techno-park which promote new businesses creations. This review paper aims at not only generating performance measurement index of business incubators but also categorizing performance determinants in accordance with three different theoretical perspectives of resource-based view, strategy patterns, and social networks. Futhermore, as future direction of research, this paper emphasizes structured research efforts on the critical effects of incubator's governance patterns, external and regional contexts, and analysis of government incubator policy.

  • PDF

A Study on Properties of Charge & Discharge Current by Degrade in EPR (EPR의 열화에 의한 충.방전 전류 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Sung-Ill
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers
    • /
    • v.21 no.7
    • /
    • pp.679-685
    • /
    • 2008
  • This paper describes the degraded properties of between the charge and discharge current for ${\gamma}$-ray irradiated in electric power cable rubbers using in nuclear power generating station. The charge and discharge current of degradation in EPR(Ethylene Propylene Rubber), which were irradiated with the radiant capacity of 0.033 Mrad/h, have been measured in order to investigate the influence of the atmosphere(in amount of reinforcing agent, moisture absorption and heat treatment) on electrical properties. When ${\gamma}$-ray were irradiated on the EPR with more reinforcing agent from 4 to 40 Phr, charge and discharge currents was increase due to the amount of reinforcing agent. It was verified that the discharging and charging currents irradiated by ${\gamma}$-ray were higher than those that was not irradiated. The amount of the degraded current was more after moisture absorption than before moisture absorption. The charge and discharge current after heat treatment was similar to that of before heat treatment and it was decreased with the time elapsed. As these properties related with ${\gamma}$-ray irradiation dose, it is suggested that these properties can be utilized as a index of irradiation degradation.

Frequency Tracking Error Analysis of LQG Based Vector Tracking Loop for Robust Signal Tracking

  • Park, Minhuck;Kee, Changdon
    • Journal of Positioning, Navigation, and Timing
    • /
    • v.9 no.3
    • /
    • pp.207-214
    • /
    • 2020
  • In this paper, we implement linear-quadratic-Gaussian based vector tracking loop (LQG-VTL) instead of conventional extended Kalman filter based vector tracking loop (EKF-VTL). The LQG-VTL can improve the performance compared to the EKF-VTL by generating optimal control input at a specific performance index. Performance analysis is conducted through two factors, frequency thermal noise and frequency dynamic stress error, which determine total frequency tracking error. We derive the thermal noise and the dynamic stress error formula in the LQG-VTL. From frequency tracking error analysis, we can determine control gain matrix in the LQG controller and show that the frequency tracking error of the LQG-VTL is lower than that of the EKF-VTL in all C/N0 ranges. The simulation results show that the LQG-VTL improves performance by 30% in Doppler tracking, so the LQG-VTL can extend pre-integration time longer and track weaker signals than the EKF-VTL. Therefore, the LQG-VTL algorithm is more robust than the EKF-VTL in weak signal environments.

Life Cycle Assessment for the Business Activities of Green Company -1. Analysis of Process Flow and Basic Unit (녹색기업의 사업활동 전 과정에 대한 환경성 평가 -1. 공정 흐름 및 원단위 분석)

  • Shin, Choon-Hwan;Park, Do-Hyun
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
    • /
    • v.22 no.3
    • /
    • pp.269-279
    • /
    • 2013
  • In this paper, an environmental assessment was carried out on the whole process of industrial business activities to establish a basic plan for climate change mitigation and energy independency. The whole process was divided into each discharge process in terms of water, air, solid waste, green house gases and refractory organic compounds. The flowcharts and basic unit of process were analysed for three years (2008-2010), being utilized as basic information for the life cycle assessment. It was found that the unit loading for the whole process significantly depends on changes in the operation rate change and highly concentrated wastewater inflow. About 35% of solid waste production was reduced by improving the incineration method with co-combustion in coal boiler, generating about 57% of electricity used for the whole process, and consequently reducing the energy costs. As the eco-efficiency index was found to be more than 1, compared to the previous years, it can be said that improvement in general has taken place.

Band Gap and Defect Sites of Silicon Nitride for Crystalline Silicon Solar Cells (단결정 실리콘 태양전지를 위한 실리콘 질화막의 밴드갭과 결함사이트)

  • Jung, Sung-Wook;Yi, Jun-Sin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers Conference
    • /
    • 2010.06a
    • /
    • pp.365-365
    • /
    • 2010
  • In this paper, silicon nitride thin films with different silane and ammonia gas ratios were deposited and characterized for the antireflection and passivation layer of high efficiency single crystalline silicon solar cells. As the flow rate of the ammonia gas increased, the refractive index decreased and the band gap increased. Consequently, the transmittance increased due to the higher band gap and the decrease of the defect states which existed for the 1.68 and 1.80 eV in the SiNx films. The reduction in the carrier lifetime of the SiNx films deposited by using a higher $NH_3/SiH_4$ flow ratio was caused by the increase of the interface traps and the defect states in/on the interface between the SiNx and the silicon wafer. The silicon and nitrogen rich films are not suitable for generating both higher carrier lifetimes and transmittance. These results indicate that the band gap and the defect states of the SiNx films should be carefully controlled in order to obtain the maximum efficiency for c-Si solar cells.

  • PDF