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The Association between Patient Characteristics of Chungnam-do and External Medical Service Use Using Health Insurance Cohort DB 2.0 (건강보험 코호트 자료를 활용한 충청남도 지역 환자의 특성에 따른 관외 의료이용과의 연관성)

  • Yeong Jun Lee;Se Hyeon Myeong;Hyun Woo Moon;Seo Hyun Woo;Sun Jung Kim
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.48-58
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    • 2024
  • Background: The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between external medical service use and the characteristics of Chungcheongnam-do patients. We aimed to provide evidence of external medical service use enhance the healthcare delivery system in Chungcheongnam-do. Methods: We used the Health Insurance Cohort DB 2.0 of 2016-2019, and 2,570,439 patients were included in the study. Multivariate logistic regression and multinomial logistic regression were used to identify the association between external medical service use and each patient characteristic. Generalized linear model was used to identify the association between medical costs and external medical service use area. Results: During the study period, 32.2% of inpatients and 12.5% of outpatients had external medical service use in Chungcheongnam-do. In comparison to patients living in Cheonan and Asan, the odds ratio (OR) for external medical services use was higher across all regions. Specifically, hospitalized patients from Gyeryong, Nonsan, and Geumsan (OR, 116.817) and Gongju, Buyeo, and Cheongyang (OR, 72.931) demonstrated extremely high likelihood of external medical service use in the Daejeon area. Furthermore, compared to medical expenses incurred within Chungcheongnam-do, patients with external medical service use in the capitol area (outpatient=17.01%, inpatients=22.11%) and Daejeon area (outpatient=16.63%, inpatients=15.41%) spent more on healthcare services. Conclusion: This study found the evidence of external medical service use among Chungcheongnam-do patients. Further study should be conducted taking into account variables including satisfaction of local medical services, different types of patient diseases, and others. The study's findings may serve as a foundation for policy proposals aimed at ensuring the financial stability of our health insurance system, ensuring the efficient delivery of medical care, and localization of medical care.

Role of CopA to Regulate repABC Gene Expression on the Transcriptional Level (전사 수준에서 repABC 유전자 발현을 조절하는 CopA 단백질의 역할)

  • Sam Woong Kim;Sang Wan Gal;Won-Jae Chi;Woo Young Bang;Tae Wan Kim;In Gyu Baek;Kyu Ho Bang
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.86-93
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    • 2024
  • Since replication of plasmids must be strictly controlled, plasmids that generally perform rolling circle replication generally maintain a constant copy number by strictly controlling the replication initiator Rep at the transcriptional and translational levels. Plasmid pJB01 contains three orfs (copA, repB, repC or repABC) consisting of a single operon. From analysis of amino acid sequence, pJB01 CopA was homologous to the Cops, as a copy number control protein, of other plasmids. When compared with a CopG of pMV158, CopA seems to form the RHH (ribbon-helix-helix) known as a motif of generalized repressor of plasmids. The result of gel mobility shift assay (EMSA) revealed that the purified fusion CopA protein binds to the operator region of the repABC operon. To examine the functional role of CopA on transcriptional level, 3 point mutants were constructed in coding frame of copA such as CopA R16M, K26R and E50V. The repABC mRNA levels of CopA R16M, K26R and E50V mutants increased 1.84, 1.78 and 2.86 folds more than that of CopA wt, respectively. Furthermore, copy numbers owing to mutations in three copA genes also increased 1.86, 1.68 and 2.89 folds more than that of copA wt, respectively. These results suggest that CopA is the transcriptional repressor, and lowers the copy number of pJB01 by reducing repABC mRNA and then RepB, as a replication initiator.

The Relationship between Financial Constraints and Investment Activities : Evidenced from Korean Logistics Firms (우리나라 물류기업의 재무제약 수준과 투자활동과의 관련성에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Sung-Yhun
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.65-78
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    • 2024
  • This study investigates the correlation between financial constraints and investment activities in Korean logistics firms. A sample of 340 companies engaged in the transportation sector, as per the 2021 KSIC, was selected for analysis. Financial data obtained from the DART were used to compile a panel dataset spanning from 1996 to 2021, totaling 6,155 observations. The research model was validated, and tests for heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation in the error terms were conducted considering the panel data structure. The relationship between investment activities in the previous period and current investment activities was analyzed using panel Generalized Method of Moments(GMM). The validation results of the research indicate that Korean logistics firms tend to increase investment activities as their level of financial constraints improves. Specifically, a positive relationship between the level of financial constraints and investment activities was consistently observed across all models. These findings suggest that investment decision-making varies based on the financial constraints faced by companies, aligning with previous research indicating that investment activities of constrained firms are subdued. Moreover, while the results from the model examining whether investment activities in the previous period affect current investment activities indicated an influence of investment activities from the previous period on current investment activities, the investment activities from two periods ago did not show a significant relationship with current investment activities. Among the control variables, firm size and cash flow variables exhibited positive relationships, while debt size and asset diversification variables showed negative relationships. Thus, larger firm size and smoother cash flows were associated with more proactive investment activities, while high debt levels and extensive asset diversification appeared to constrain investment activities in logistics companies. These results interpret that under financial constraints, internal funding sources such as cash flows exhibit positive relationships, whereas external capital sources such as debt demonstrate negative relationships, consistent with empirical findings from previous research.

A Study of 'Emotion Trigger' by Text Mining Techniques (텍스트 마이닝을 이용한 감정 유발 요인 'Emotion Trigger'에 관한 연구)

  • An, Juyoung;Bae, Junghwan;Han, Namgi;Song, Min
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.69-92
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    • 2015
  • The explosion of social media data has led to apply text-mining techniques to analyze big social media data in a more rigorous manner. Even if social media text analysis algorithms were improved, previous approaches to social media text analysis have some limitations. In the field of sentiment analysis of social media written in Korean, there are two typical approaches. One is the linguistic approach using machine learning, which is the most common approach. Some studies have been conducted by adding grammatical factors to feature sets for training classification model. The other approach adopts the semantic analysis method to sentiment analysis, but this approach is mainly applied to English texts. To overcome these limitations, this study applies the Word2Vec algorithm which is an extension of the neural network algorithms to deal with more extensive semantic features that were underestimated in existing sentiment analysis. The result from adopting the Word2Vec algorithm is compared to the result from co-occurrence analysis to identify the difference between two approaches. The results show that the distribution related word extracted by Word2Vec algorithm in that the words represent some emotion about the keyword used are three times more than extracted by co-occurrence analysis. The reason of the difference between two results comes from Word2Vec's semantic features vectorization. Therefore, it is possible to say that Word2Vec algorithm is able to catch the hidden related words which have not been found in traditional analysis. In addition, Part Of Speech (POS) tagging for Korean is used to detect adjective as "emotional word" in Korean. In addition, the emotion words extracted from the text are converted into word vector by the Word2Vec algorithm to find related words. Among these related words, noun words are selected because each word of them would have causal relationship with "emotional word" in the sentence. The process of extracting these trigger factor of emotional word is named "Emotion Trigger" in this study. As a case study, the datasets used in the study are collected by searching using three keywords: professor, prosecutor, and doctor in that these keywords contain rich public emotion and opinion. Advanced data collecting was conducted to select secondary keywords for data gathering. The secondary keywords for each keyword used to gather the data to be used in actual analysis are followed: Professor (sexual assault, misappropriation of research money, recruitment irregularities, polifessor), Doctor (Shin hae-chul sky hospital, drinking and plastic surgery, rebate) Prosecutor (lewd behavior, sponsor). The size of the text data is about to 100,000(Professor: 25720, Doctor: 35110, Prosecutor: 43225) and the data are gathered from news, blog, and twitter to reflect various level of public emotion into text data analysis. As a visualization method, Gephi (http://gephi.github.io) was used and every program used in text processing and analysis are java coding. The contributions of this study are as follows: First, different approaches for sentiment analysis are integrated to overcome the limitations of existing approaches. Secondly, finding Emotion Trigger can detect the hidden connections to public emotion which existing method cannot detect. Finally, the approach used in this study could be generalized regardless of types of text data. The limitation of this study is that it is hard to say the word extracted by Emotion Trigger processing has significantly causal relationship with emotional word in a sentence. The future study will be conducted to clarify the causal relationship between emotional words and the words extracted by Emotion Trigger by comparing with the relationships manually tagged. Furthermore, the text data used in Emotion Trigger are twitter, so the data have a number of distinct features which we did not deal with in this study. These features will be considered in further study.

The way to make training data for deep learning model to recognize keywords in product catalog image at E-commerce (온라인 쇼핑몰에서 상품 설명 이미지 내의 키워드 인식을 위한 딥러닝 훈련 데이터 자동 생성 방안)

  • Kim, Kitae;Oh, Wonseok;Lim, Geunwon;Cha, Eunwoo;Shin, Minyoung;Kim, Jongwoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2018
  • From the 21st century, various high-quality services have come up with the growth of the internet or 'Information and Communication Technologies'. Especially, the scale of E-commerce industry in which Amazon and E-bay are standing out is exploding in a large way. As E-commerce grows, Customers could get what they want to buy easily while comparing various products because more products have been registered at online shopping malls. However, a problem has arisen with the growth of E-commerce. As too many products have been registered, it has become difficult for customers to search what they really need in the flood of products. When customers search for desired products with a generalized keyword, too many products have come out as a result. On the contrary, few products have been searched if customers type in details of products because concrete product-attributes have been registered rarely. In this situation, recognizing texts in images automatically with a machine can be a solution. Because bulk of product details are written in catalogs as image format, most of product information are not searched with text inputs in the current text-based searching system. It means if information in images can be converted to text format, customers can search products with product-details, which make them shop more conveniently. There are various existing OCR(Optical Character Recognition) programs which can recognize texts in images. But existing OCR programs are hard to be applied to catalog because they have problems in recognizing texts in certain circumstances, like texts are not big enough or fonts are not consistent. Therefore, this research suggests the way to recognize keywords in catalog with the Deep Learning algorithm which is state of the art in image-recognition area from 2010s. Single Shot Multibox Detector(SSD), which is a credited model for object-detection performance, can be used with structures re-designed to take into account the difference of text from object. But there is an issue that SSD model needs a lot of labeled-train data to be trained, because of the characteristic of deep learning algorithms, that it should be trained by supervised-learning. To collect data, we can try labelling location and classification information to texts in catalog manually. But if data are collected manually, many problems would come up. Some keywords would be missed because human can make mistakes while labelling train data. And it becomes too time-consuming to collect train data considering the scale of data needed or costly if a lot of workers are hired to shorten the time. Furthermore, if some specific keywords are needed to be trained, searching images that have the words would be difficult, as well. To solve the data issue, this research developed a program which create train data automatically. This program can make images which have various keywords and pictures like catalog and save location-information of keywords at the same time. With this program, not only data can be collected efficiently, but also the performance of SSD model becomes better. The SSD model recorded 81.99% of recognition rate with 20,000 data created by the program. Moreover, this research had an efficiency test of SSD model according to data differences to analyze what feature of data exert influence upon the performance of recognizing texts in images. As a result, it is figured out that the number of labeled keywords, the addition of overlapped keyword label, the existence of keywords that is not labeled, the spaces among keywords and the differences of background images are related to the performance of SSD model. This test can lead performance improvement of SSD model or other text-recognizing machine based on deep learning algorithm with high-quality data. SSD model which is re-designed to recognize texts in images and the program developed for creating train data are expected to contribute to improvement of searching system in E-commerce. Suppliers can put less time to register keywords for products and customers can search products with product-details which is written on the catalog.

Clinicopathologic features of Acute Interstitial Pneumonia (급성 간질성 폐렴의 임상적 고찰)

  • Shim, Jae-Jeong;Park, Sang-Muyn;Lee, Sang-Hwa;Lee, Jin-Gu;Cho, Jae-Yun;Song, Gwan-Gyu;In, Kwang-Ho;Yoo, Se-Hwa;Kang, Kyung-Ho
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.58-66
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    • 1995
  • Background: Acute interstitial pneumonia is a relatively rare form of interstitial pneumonia, since the vast majority of interstitial pneumonia have a more chronic course. It corresponds to the lesion described by Hamman and Rich, as Hamman-Rich disease in 1944. Another name in the clinical literature is accelerated interstitial pneumonia, idiopathic acute respiratory distress syndrome (idiopathic ARDS), and the organizing stage of diffuse alveolar damage. Acute interstitial pneumonia differs from chronic interstitial pneumonia by clinical and pathologic features. Clinically, this disease is characterized by a sudden onset and a rapid course, and reversible disease. Method and Purpose: Five cases of pathologically proven acute interstitial pneumonia were retrospectively studied to define the clinical, radiologic, and pathologic features. Results: 1) The five cases ranged in age from 31 to 77 years old. The onset of illness was acute in all patients, it began with viral-like prodrome 6~40 days prior to shortness of breath, and respiratory failure eventually developed in all patients. In 2 cases, generalized skin rash was accompanied with flu-like symptoms. Etiologic agent could not be identified in any case. 2) All patients had leukocytosis and severe hypoxemia. Pulmonary function test of 3 available cases shows restrictive ventilatory defect, and one survived patient(case 5) has a complete improvement of pulmonary function after dismissal. 3) Diffuse bilateral chest infiltrates were present radiologically. Theses were the ground-glass, consolidation, and reticular densities without honeycomb fibrosis in all patients. The pathologic abnormalities were the presence of increased numbers of macrophages and the formation of hyaline membranes within alveolar spaces. There was also interstitial thickening with edema, proliferation of immature fibroblast, and hyperplasia of type II pneumocyte. In the survived patient(case5), pathologic findings were relatively early stage of acute interstitial pneumonia, such as hyaline membrane with mild interstitial fibrosis. 4) Of the 5 patients, four patients died of respiratory failure 14~90 days after onset of first symptom, and one survived and recovered in symptoms, chest X ray, and pulmonary function test Conclusion: These results emphasize that acute interstitial pneumonia is clinically, radiologically, and pathologically distinct form of interstitial pneumonia and should be separated from the group of chronic interstitial pneumonia. Further studies will be needed to evaluate the pathogenesis and the treatment of acute interstitial pneumonia.

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The Relationship Between DEA Model-based Eco-Efficiency and Economic Performance (DEA 모형 기반의 에코효율성과 경제적 성과의 연관성)

  • Kim, Myoung-Jong
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.3-49
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    • 2014
  • Growing interest of stakeholders on corporate responsibilities for environment and tightening environmental regulations are highlighting the importance of environmental management more than ever. However, companies' awareness of the importance of environment is still falling behind, and related academic works have not shown consistent conclusions on the relationship between environmental performance and economic performance. One of the reasons is different ways of measuring these two performances. The evaluation scope of economic performance is relatively narrow and the performance can be measured by a unified unit such as price, while the scope of environmental performance is diverse and a wide range of units are used for measuring environmental performances instead of using a single unified unit. Therefore, the results of works can be different depending on the performance indicators selected. In order to resolve this problem, generalized and standardized performance indicators should be developed. In particular, the performance indicators should be able to cover the concepts of both environmental and economic performances because the recent idea of environmental management has expanded to encompass the concept of sustainability. Another reason is that most of the current researches tend to focus on the motive of environmental investments and environmental performance, and do not offer a guideline for an effective implementation strategy for environmental management. For example, a process improvement strategy or a market discrimination strategy can be deployed through comparing the environment competitiveness among the companies in the same or similar industries, so that a virtuous cyclical relationship between environmental and economic performances can be secured. A novel method for measuring eco-efficiency by utilizing Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), which is able to combine multiple environmental and economic performances, is proposed in this report. Based on the eco-efficiencies, the environmental competitiveness is analyzed and the optimal combination of inputs and outputs are recommended for improving the eco-efficiencies of inefficient firms. Furthermore, the panel analysis is applied to the causal relationship between eco-efficiency and economic performance, and the pooled regression model is used to investigate the relationship between eco-efficiency and economic performance. The four-year eco-efficiencies between 2010 and 2013 of 23 companies are obtained from the DEA analysis; a comparison of efficiencies among 23 companies is carried out in terms of technical efficiency(TE), pure technical efficiency(PTE) and scale efficiency(SE), and then a set of recommendations for optimal combination of inputs and outputs are suggested for the inefficient companies. Furthermore, the experimental results with the panel analysis have demonstrated the causality from eco-efficiency to economic performance. The results of the pooled regression have shown that eco-efficiency positively affect financial perform ances(ROA and ROS) of the companies, as well as firm values(Tobin Q, stock price, and stock returns). This report proposes a novel approach for generating standardized performance indicators obtained from multiple environmental and economic performances, so that it is able to enhance the generality of relevant researches and provide a deep insight into the sustainability of environmental management. Furthermore, using efficiency indicators obtained from the DEA model, the cause of change in eco-efficiency can be investigated and an effective strategy for environmental management can be suggested. Finally, this report can be a motive for environmental management by providing empirical evidence that environmental investments can improve economic performance.

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An Analysis on Factors Affecting Local Control and Survival in Nasopharvngeal Carcinoma (비인두암의 국소 종양 치유와 생존율에 관한 예후 인자 분석)

  • Chung Woong-Ki;Cho Jae-Shik;Park Seung Jin;Lee Jae-Hong;Ahn Sung Ja;Nam Taek Keun;Choi Chan;Noh Young Hee;Nah Byung Sik
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.91-99
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    • 1999
  • Propose : This study was performed to find out the prognostic factors affecting local control, survival and disease free survival rate in nasopharyngeal carcinomas treated with chemotherapy and radiation therapy. Materials and Methods : We analysed 47 patients of nasopharyngeal carcinomas, histologically confirmed and treated at Chonnam University Hospital between July 1986 and June 1996, retrospectively. Range of patients' age were from 16 to 80 years (median; 52 years). Thirty three (70$\%$) patients was male. Histological types were composed of 3 (6$\%$) keratinizing, 30 (64$\%$) nonkeratinizing squamous cell carcinoma and 13 (28$\%$) undifferentiated carcinoma. Histoiogicai type was not known in 1 patient (2$\%$). We restaged according to the staging system of 1997 American Joint Committee on Cancer Forty seven patients were recorded as follows: 71: 11 (23$\%$), T2a; 6 (13$\%$), T2b; 9 (19$\%$), 73; 7 (15$\%$), 74: 14 (30$\%$), and NO; 7 (15$\%$), Nl: 14 (30$\%$), N2; 21 (45%), N3: 5 (10%). Clinical staging was grouped as follows: Stage 1; 2 (4$\%$), IIA: 2 (4$\%$), IIB; 10 (21$\%$), III; 14 (30$\%$), IVA; 14 (30$\%$) and IVB; 5 (11$\%$). Radiation therapy was done using 6 MV and 10 MV X- ray of linear accelerator. Electron beam was used for the Iymph nodes of posterior neck after 4500 cGy. The range of total radiation dose delivered to the primary tumor was from 6120 to 7920 cGy (median; 7020 cGy). Neoadjuvant chemotherapy was performed with cisplatin +5-fluorouracil (25 patients) or cisplatin+pepleomycin (17 patients) with one to three cycles. Five patients did not received chemotherapy. Local control rate, survival and disease free suwival rate were calculated by Kaplan-Meier method. Generalized Wilcoxon test was used to evaluate the difference of survival rates between groups. multivariate analysis using Cox proportional hazard model was done for finding prognostic factors. Results: Local control rate was 81$\%$ in 5 year. Five year survival rate was 60$\%$ (median survival; 100 months). We included age, sex, cranial nerve deflicit, histologic type, stage group, chemotherapy, elapsed days between chemotherapy and radiotherapy, total radiation dose, period of radiotherapy as potential prognostic factors in multivariate analysis. As a result, cranial none deficit (P=0.004) had statistical significance in local control rate. Stage group and total radiation dose were significant prognostic factors in survival (P=0.000, P=0.012), and in disease free survival rates (P=0.003, P=0.008), respectively. Common complications were xerostomia, tooth and ear problems. Hypothyroidism was developed in 2 patients. Conclusion : In our study, cranial none deficit was a significant prognostic factor in local control rate, and stage group and total radiation dose were significant factors in both survival and disease free survival of nasopharyngeal carcinoma. We have concluded that chemotherapy and radiotherapy used in our patients were effective without any serious complication.

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The Effects of Evaluation Attributes of Cultural Tourism Festivals on Satisfaction and Behavioral Intention (문화관광축제 방문객의 평가속성 만족과 행동의도에 관한 연구 - 2006 광주김치대축제를 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Jung-Hoon
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.55-73
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    • 2007
  • Festivals are an indispensable feature of cultural tourism(Formica & Uysal, 1998). Cultural tourism festivals are increasingly being used as instruments promoting tourism and boosting the regional economy. So much research related to festivals is undertaken from a variety of perspectives. Plans to revisit a particular festival have been viewed as an important research topic both in academia and the tourism industry. Therefore festivals have frequently been leveled as cultural events. Cultural tourism festivals have become a crucial component in constituting the attractiveness of tourism destinations(Prentice, 2001). As a result, a considerable number of tourist studies have been carried out in diverse cultural tourism festivals(Backman et al., 1995; Crompton & Mckay, 1997; Park, 1998; Clawson & Knetch, 1996). Much of previous literature empirically shows the close linkage between tourist satisfaction and behavioral intention in festivals. The main objective of this study is to investigate the effects of evaluation attributes of cultural tourism festivals on satisfaction and behavioral intention. accomplish the research objective, to find out evaluation items of cultural tourism festivals through the literature study an empirical study. Using a varimax rotation with Kaiser normalization, the research obtained four factors in the 18 evaluation attributes of cultural tourism festivals. Some empirical studies have examined the relationship between behavioral intention and actual behavior. To understand between tourist satisfaction and behavioral intention, this study suggests five hypotheses and hypothesized model. In this study, the analysis is based on primary data collected from visitors who participated in '2006 Gwangju Kimchi Festival'. In total, 700 self-administered questionnaires were distributed and 561 usable questionnaires were obtained. Respondents were presented with the 18 satisfactions item on a scale from 1(strongly disagree) to 7(strongly agree). Dimensionality and stability of the scale were evaluated by a factor analysis with varimax rotation. Four factors emerged with eigenvalues greater than 1, which explained 66.40% of the total variance and Cronbach' alpha raging from 0.876 to 0.774. And four factors named: advertisement and guides, programs, food and souvenirs, and convenient facilities. To test and estimate the hypothesized model, a two-step approach with an initial measurement model and a subsequent structural model for Structural Equation Modeling was used. The AMOS 4.0 analysis package was used to conduct the analysis. In estimating the model, the maximum likelihood procedure was used.In this study Chi-square test is used, which is the most common model goodness-of-fit test. In addition, considering the literature about the Structural Equation Modeling, this study used, besides Chi-square test, more model fit indexes to determine the tangibility of the suggested model: goodness-of-fit index(GFI) and root mean square error of approximation(RMSEA) as absolute fit indexes; normed-fit index(NFI) and non-normed-fit index(NNFI) as incremental fit indexes. The results of T-test and ANOVAs revealed significant differences(0.05 level), therefore H1(Tourist Satisfaction level should be different from Demographic traits) are supported. According to the multiple Regressions analysis and AMOS, H2(Tourist Satisfaction positively influences on revisit intention), H3(Tourist Satisfaction positively influences on word of mouth), H4(Evaluation Attributes of cultural tourism festivals influences on Tourist Satisfaction), and H5(Tourist Satisfaction positively influences on Behavioral Intention) are also supported. As the conclusion of this study are as following: First, there were differences in satisfaction levels in accordance with the demographic information of visitors. Not all visitors had the same degree of satisfaction with their cultural tourism festival experience. Therefore it is necessary to understand the satisfaction of tourists if the experiences that are provided are to meet their expectations. So, in making festival plans, the organizer should consider the demographic variables in explaining and segmenting visitors to cultural tourism festival. Second, satisfaction with attributes of evaluation cultural tourism festivals had a significant direct impact on visitors' intention to revisit such festivals and the word of mouth publicity they shared. The results indicated that visitor satisfaction is a significant antecedent of their intention to revisit such festivals. Festival organizers should strive to forge long-term relationships with the visitors. In addition, it is also necessary to understand how the intention to revisit a festival changes over time and identify the critical satisfaction factors. Third, it is confirmed that behavioral intention was enhanced by satisfaction. The strong link between satisfaction and behavioral intentions of visitors areensured by high quality advertisement and guides, programs, food and souvenirs, and convenient facilities. Thus, examining revisit intention from a time viewpoint may be of a great significance for both practical and theoretical reasons. Additionally, festival organizers should give special attention to visitor satisfaction, as satisfied visitors are more likely to return sooner. The findings of this research have several practical implications for the festivals managers. The promotion of cultural festivals should be based on the understanding of tourist satisfaction for the long- term success of tourism. And this study can help managers carry out this task in a more informed and strategic manner by examining the effects of demographic traits on the level of tourist satisfaction and the behavioral intention. In other words, differentiated marketing strategies should be stressed and executed by relevant parties. The limitations of this study are as follows; the results of this study cannot be generalized to other cultural tourism festivals because we have not explored the many different kinds of festivals. A future study should be a comparative analysis of other festivals of different visitor segments. Also, further efforts should be directed toward developing more comprehensive temporal models that can explain behavioral intentions of tourists.

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A Study on Developing a VKOSPI Forecasting Model via GARCH Class Models for Intelligent Volatility Trading Systems (지능형 변동성트레이딩시스템개발을 위한 GARCH 모형을 통한 VKOSPI 예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sun-Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2010
  • Volatility plays a central role in both academic and practical applications, especially in pricing financial derivative products and trading volatility strategies. This study presents a novel mechanism based on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models that is able to enhance the performance of intelligent volatility trading systems by predicting Korean stock market volatility more accurately. In particular, we embedded the concept of the volatility asymmetry documented widely in the literature into our model. The newly developed Korean stock market volatility index of KOSPI 200, VKOSPI, is used as a volatility proxy. It is the price of a linear portfolio of the KOSPI 200 index options and measures the effect of the expectations of dealers and option traders on stock market volatility for 30 calendar days. The KOSPI 200 index options market started in 1997 and has become the most actively traded market in the world. Its trading volume is more than 10 million contracts a day and records the highest of all the stock index option markets. Therefore, analyzing the VKOSPI has great importance in understanding volatility inherent in option prices and can afford some trading ideas for futures and option dealers. Use of the VKOSPI as volatility proxy avoids statistical estimation problems associated with other measures of volatility since the VKOSPI is model-free expected volatility of market participants calculated directly from the transacted option prices. This study estimates the symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models for the KOSPI 200 index from January 2003 to December 2006 by the maximum likelihood procedure. Asymmetric GARCH models include GJR-GARCH model of Glosten, Jagannathan and Runke, exponential GARCH model of Nelson and power autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) of Ding, Granger and Engle. Symmetric GARCH model indicates basic GARCH (1, 1). Tomorrow's forecasted value and change direction of stock market volatility are obtained by recursive GARCH specifications from January 2007 to December 2009 and are compared with the VKOSPI. Empirical results indicate that negative unanticipated returns increase volatility more than positive return shocks of equal magnitude decrease volatility, indicating the existence of volatility asymmetry in the Korean stock market. The point value and change direction of tomorrow VKOSPI are estimated and forecasted by GARCH models. Volatility trading system is developed using the forecasted change direction of the VKOSPI, that is, if tomorrow VKOSPI is expected to rise, a long straddle or strangle position is established. A short straddle or strangle position is taken if VKOSPI is expected to fall tomorrow. Total profit is calculated as the cumulative sum of the VKOSPI percentage change. If forecasted direction is correct, the absolute value of the VKOSPI percentage changes is added to trading profit. It is subtracted from the trading profit if forecasted direction is not correct. For the in-sample period, the power ARCH model best fits in a statistical metric, Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE), and the exponential GARCH model shows the highest Mean Correct Prediction (MCP). The power ARCH model best fits also for the out-of-sample period and provides the highest probability for the VKOSPI change direction tomorrow. Generally, the power ARCH model shows the best fit for the VKOSPI. All the GARCH models provide trading profits for volatility trading system and the exponential GARCH model shows the best performance, annual profit of 197.56%, during the in-sample period. The GARCH models present trading profits during the out-of-sample period except for the exponential GARCH model. During the out-of-sample period, the power ARCH model shows the largest annual trading profit of 38%. The volatility clustering and asymmetry found in this research are the reflection of volatility non-linearity. This further suggests that combining the asymmetric GARCH models and artificial neural networks can significantly enhance the performance of the suggested volatility trading system, since artificial neural networks have been shown to effectively model nonlinear relationships.