• Title/Summary/Keyword: general equilibrium model

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Economic Impact of the Tariff Reform : A General Equilibrium Approach (관세율(關稅率) 조정(調整) 경제적(經濟的) 효과분석(效果分析) : 일반균형적(一般均衡的) 접근(接近))

  • Lee, Won-yong
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.69-91
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    • 1990
  • A major change in tariff rates was made in January 1989 in Korea. The benchmark tariff rate, which applies to about two thirds of all commodity items, was lowered to 15 percent from 20 percent. In addition, the variation in tariff rates among different types of commodities was reduced. This paper examines the economic impact of the tariff reform using a multisectoral general equilibrium model of the Korean economy which was introduced by Lee and Chang(1988), and by Lee(1988). More specifically, this paper attempts to find the changes in imports, exports, domestic production, consumption, prices, and employment in 31 different sectors of the economy induced by the reform in tariff rates. The policy simulations are made according to three different methods. First, tariff changes in industries are calculated strictly according to the change in legal tariff rates, which tend to over-estimate the size of the tariff reduction given the tariff-drawback system and tariff exemption applied to various import items. Second, tariff changes in industries are obtained by dividing the estimated tariff revenues of each industry by the estimated imports for that industry, which are often called actual tariff rates. According to the first method, the import-weighted average tariff rate is lowered from 15.2% to 10.2%, while the second method changes the average tariff rate from 6.2% to 4.2%. In the third method, the tariff-drawback system is internalized in the model. This paper reports the results of the policy simulation according to all three methods, comparing them with one another. It is argued that the second method yields the most realistic estimate of the changes in macro-economic variables, while the third method is useful in delineating the differences in impact across industries. The findings, according to the second method, show that the tariff reform induces more imports in most sectors. Garments, leather products, and wood products are those industries in which imports increase by more than 5 percent. On the other hand, imports in agricultural, mining and service sectors are least affected. Domestic production increases in all sectors except the following: leather products, non-metalic products, chemicals, paper and paper products, and wood-product industries. The increase in production and employment is largest in export industries, followed by service industries. An impact on macroeconomic variables is also simulated. The tariff reform increases nominal GNP by 0.26 percent, lowers the consumer price index by 0.49 percent, increases employment by 0.24 percent, and worsens the trade balance by 480 million US dollars, through a rise in exports of 540 million US dollars and a rise in imports of 1.02 billion US dollars.

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Analysis of Color Characteristics of the Apartment Model House -Sale in lots Apartment in Busan, $2001{\sim}2004$- (아파트 모델하우스 인테리어 색채특성에 관한 조사연구 -$2001{\sim}2004$년 부산지역 분양 아파트를 중심으로-)

  • Chung, Yoo-Kyung;Kim, Jin-Ok
    • Archives of design research
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    • v.18 no.4 s.62
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    • pp.15-24
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    • 2005
  • The demand against the house space of the style which is various increases with to join in and the importance which the color does hold gradually is magnified and color meaning from house space is embossed, diversification the necessity of the color plan which hits to the social change which is turning out is recognized. From the research which it sees the importance recognition against the color plan which is must become accomplished variousfrom house space. It analyzes the color tendency of the apartment model house and it presents it does the guide line of house space color design $2001{\sim}2004$ It was sold in lots from the year Busan area in center, the acreage and the space(the wall/the ceiling, the furniture type, the window and door type and the floor type) it used 'The hue&tone 120 color system' and it grasped to the sincere analysis method and the color use present condition which leads a frequency analysis. When it sees the color analysis result of the research which it sees space especially the color plan period for a discrimination compared to the organic enemy the unity which considers a relationship the crisis which will the plan is become accomplished with the direction for, Magnification feeling or high class of the area it is that it shows the color tendency which is discriminated it was with equilibrium general classification.

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A Study on Economic Effects of Liberalization of Services Industry in a Korea-U.S. FTA: A Dynamic CGE Model (동태CGE모형을 이용한 한-미 FTA 서비스분야 협상 타결의 경제적 영향분석)

  • Ko, Jong-Hwan
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.695-728
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    • 2009
  • This study aims to conduct a quantitative assessment of potential economic impacts on the Korean economy of the concessions of the Korea-U.S. FTA (KORUS FTA) which was signed on April 1, 2007 using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, with all sectors, including agriculture, manufacturing sectors and services industry, considered for simulations. In addition, the timing of trade liberalization based on the concessions agreed on in the KORUS FTA talks for all sectors is explicitly considered. Major findings of this study are that Korea' real GDP would rise by 4.67%~4.99% by 2023 and the contribution of liberalization of services trade to Korea's economic growth would be 0.3%~0.62% points. Trade liberalization in service sectors would lead to lowered import prices and an increase in FDI, which are to contribute to an higher output and exports of sectors which make an intensive use of imported inputs and finally a higher economic growth of the Korean economy as a whole. For that to happen, a ratification of the KORUS FTA by the National Assembly of Korea and the U.S. Congress is required.

Economic Impacts of Initial Allocation and Banking in CO2 Emissions Trading (초기할당방식과 예대(預貸) 가능 여부에 따른 CO2 배출권거래제의 경제적 효과)

  • Cho, Gyeong Lyeob;Kim, Young Duk;Kim, Hyosun
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.591-642
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    • 2006
  • This paper intends to analyze economic impacts of commitment period and initial allocation in emissions trading using computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling. The fully dynamic CGE model with perfect foresight assumption is employed to illustrate (i) how a model displays economic impact of $CO_2$ regulation upon different commitment periods: one-year budget clearing vs. 5-year commitment period, (ii) how major 8 energy-intensive industries respond to different ways to allocate initial allowances. According to the results of the analysis, it IS found that market players are motivated to bank the permits and tend to sell permits in earlier stage and to buy permits in later stage of commitment period. This implies that banking allows permit trading within a commitment period, which supports the conclusions of Kling and Rubin (1997). Other findings are related to efficiency. That is, emissions trading surpasses command and control, in terms of economic efficiency and longer terms of commitment period converge on lower permit price, In long term, initial allocation based on value-added performs the lowest GDP loss among different initial allocations.

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Land Prices, Exchange Rates and Bubbles (지가(地價), 환율(換率)과 거품)

  • Park, Won-am
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.27-49
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    • 1992
  • This paper stresses the role of market fundamentals rather than bubbles in explaining Korea's recent experience of large fluctuations of stock and real estate prices. The bubble story that emphasizes the self-fulfilling prophecies of investors seems to be inappropriate to explain the recent changes of assets prices in Korea. Those who argue for bubble phenomenon in Korea tend to interpret the volatile movements of assets prices as some form of bubbles, but without implementing a rigorous test on the presence of bubbles. Even when some bubble tests are carried out, such studies exhibit various econometric problems in testing. More seriously, they suffer from the misspecification problems in setting up a market model. This paper has shown that Korea's recent changes in assets prices could be explained by changes in market fundamentals according to the emergence and the subsequent fading of 'three lows'. First, it tried to explain changes in assets prices by changes in such market fundamentals as real interest rates and economic growth. Second, it showed that the real estate prices overshoot when the liquidity and exchange rates change, using the two-sector general equilibrium portfolio balance model. It is argued that the rapid rise in real estate prices during 1986-89 stems from Yen's and Won's appreciation $vis-{\grave{a}}-vis$ the U.S. dollar and liquidity expansion (or decreases in real interest rates), while the downturn in real estate prices since 1990 is associated with Yen's and Won's depreciation $vis-{\grave{a}}-vis$ the U.S. dollar and rises in real interest rates in reflection of the excess demand for liquidity.

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Potential Welfare Loss from Using Imperfect Environmental Taxes (불완전한 환경세 사용에 따른 잠재적 후생 손실)

  • Hong, Inkee
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.1-53
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    • 2015
  • In environmental policy areas, a greater use of economic instruments (EIs) has recently been observed in many countries. However, EIs are heterogeneous policy tools. The textbook case of a Pigouvian tax is far from widely used, mainly due to the information requirements and other structural and institutional constraints. The successful implementation of EIs might heavily depend on pre-existing structural and institutional conditions. Moreover, these institutional conditions are particularly unfavorable in developing countries. Using a simple analytical general equilibrium model, this paper examines how these constraints affect the welfare gain from the introduction of environmental taxes in developing countries. First, this paper solves for the second-best optimal Pigouvian tax and output tax in the presence of a distortionary tax on market use of labor. The result confirms that an environmental output tax achieves a socially-efficient level of emissions in the least-cost manner only if the nature of the linkage between the tax base and the environmental damage is fixed. Second, incorporating structural and institutional constraints into the model through a set of parameter values from China and the US, this paper calculates the net welfare effects of either using the ideal Pigouvian tax or instead using an output tax. The numerical simulation results show that the net welfare gain from the use of an ideal Pigouvian tax could be more than six times larger than that of an output tax in developing countries. On the other hand, the welfare gain is only 50 percent in developed countries. This means that the potential welfare disadvantage from using output taxes instead emissions tax for environmental purposes could be much greater in the case of developing countries.

Production of Activated Carbon from Waste Walnut Shell Using Phosphoric Acid and Its Adsorption Characteristics for Heavy Metal Ion (인산활성화제에 의한 폐호도껍질을 원료로 한 활성탄제조 및 이의 중금속 이온 흡착특성)

  • Lee Go-Eun;Ahn Ju-Hyun;Kim Dong-Su
    • Resources Recycling
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.13-24
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    • 2003
  • The production characteristics of activated carbon from waste walnut shell have been investigated by taking activation temperature, activation time, amount of activating agent, and kind of activating agent as the major influential factors. The adsorption capacity of the activated carbon which was produced using phosphoric acid as the activating agent increased with activation temperature and showed its greatest value at about $550^{\circ}C$. Yield for activated carbon was observed to decrease continuously as the activation temperature was raised. The optimal activation time for the highest adsorption capacity was found to be about 2 hr, and as the activation time increased the yield for activated carbon was showed to decrease continuously. The increase in the amount of activating agent resulted in the increase of the yield for activated carbon, however, excessive amount of activating agent deteriorated its adsorption capacity reversely. The variations of the microstructure of activated carbon observed by SEM with several influential factors, correlated very well with its changes in the adsorbability with the same factors and the kind of activating agent was found to play an important role in the determination of the adsorption capacity of activated carbon. To investigate the adsorption characteristics of the produced activated carbon, the adsorption reactions of $Cu^{2+}$ ion were examined using the produced activated carbon as the adsorbent. In general, the kinetics of the adsorption of $Cu^{2+}$ ion was observed to follow a 2nd-order reaction and the rate constant for adsorption reaction increased as the initial concentration of adsorbate was diminished. The equilibrium adsorption of $Cu^{2+}$ was explained well with Freundlich model and its adsorption reaction was found to be endothermic. The activation energy for adsorption was calculated to be 13.07 kcal/mol, which implied that the adsorption reaction was very irreversible, and several thermodynamic parameters of adsorption reaction were estimated using van't. Hoff equation and thermodynamic relationships.

Economic Effects of Agreement on Trade in Services under the Korea-ASEAN FTA - A CGE Approach - (CGE모형을 이용한 한-아세안 FTA 서비스무역협정의 경제적 효과분석)

  • Ko, Jong-Hwan
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.419-448
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    • 2008
  • The objective of this study is to conduct a quantitative assessment of potential impacts on the Korean economy of Agreement on Trade in Services Under the Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Among the Governments of the Republic of Korea and the Member Countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations which was signed on 21 November 2007 using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Tariff equivalents of services were calculated on the basis of concessions made in the Agreement between Korea and ASEAN member countries. The empirical analysis shows that Korea is to get an additional gain in real GDP of 0.04 percent and in welfare of US$106 million, with an increase in per capita utility of 0.03 percent. Total exports and imports of Korea are to rise by US$179 million and $191 million, respectively, causing a trade deficit of $12 million. Korea's exports to ASEAN member countries will increase by $108 million and Korea's imports from them will rise by $278 million, giving rise to a trade deficit of $170 million.

A Study on Economic Effects of NAMA Negotiations in the WTO on Automotive Industry of the World (WTO 비농산물협상이 전세계 자동차산업에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Ko, Jong-Hwan
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.95-126
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    • 2011
  • The objective of this study is to quantify the potential economic effects of Non-Agricultural Market Access (NAMA) negotiations of the WTO on automotive industry of the world using a multi-region, multi-sector Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with 21 countries/regions and 22 sectors. According to the December 2008 NAMA modalities text, issued by the chair of the negotiation on NAMA, three different scenarios of tariff liberalization of NAMA are conducted on the basis of the Swiss formula with a coefficient of 8 for developed members and 20 for developing (scenario 1), with a coefficient of 8 for developed members and 22 for developing (scenario 2) and with a coefficient of 8 for developed members and 25 for developing (scenario 3). Simulation results show potential economic effects at the macroeconomic and microeconomic level of 21 countries concerned. In particular, Korea is to be one of the winners of tariff liberalization of NAMA in the WTO and Korean automotive industry is to benefit from it to a large extent in terms of its output, domestic sales, exports and trade balance, which implies that Korea needs to actively engage in NAMA negotiations of the WTO.

Risk of Carbon Leakage and Border Carbon Adjustments under the Korean Emissions Trading Scheme

  • Oh, Kyungsoo
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.45-64
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    • 2022
  • Purpose - This paper examines South Korea's potential status as a carbon leakage country, and the level of risk posed by the Korean emissions trading scheme (ETS) for Korean industries. The economic effects of border carbon adjustments (BCAs) to protect energy-intensive Korean industries in the process of achieving the carbon reduction target by 2030 through the Korean ETS are also analyzed. Design/methodology - First, using the Korean Input-Output (IO) table, this paper calculates the balance of emissions embodied in trade (BEET) and the pollution terms of trade (PTT) to determine Korean industries' carbon leakage status. Analyses of the risk level posed by carbon reduction policy implementation in international trade are conducted for some sectors by applying the EU criteria. Second, using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, three BCA scenarios, exemption regulations (EXE), reimbursement (REB), and tariff reduction (TAR) to protect the energy-intensive industries under the Korean ETS are addressed. Compared to the baseline scenario of achieving carbon reduction targets by 2030, the effects of BCAs on welfare, carbon leakage, outputs, and trading are analyzed. Findings - As Korea's industrial structure has been transitioning from a carbon importing to a carbon leaking country. The results indicate that some industrial sectors could face the risk of losing international competitiveness due to the Korean ETS. South Korea's industries are basically exposed to risk of carbon leakage because most industries have a trade intensity higher than 30%. This could be interpreted as disproving vulnerability to carbon leakage. Although the petroleum and coal sector is not in carbon leakage, according to BEET and PTT, the Korean ETS exposes this sector to a high risk of carbon leakage. Non-metallic minerals and iron and steel sectors are also exposed to a high risk of carbon leakage due to the increased burden of carbon reduction costs embodied in the Korean ETS, despite relatively low levels of trade intensity. BCAs are demonstrated to have an influential role in protecting energy-intensive industries while achieving the carbon reduction target by 2030. The EXE scenario has the greatest impact on mitigation of welfare losses and carbon leakage, and the TAF scenario causes a disturbance in the international trade market because of the pricing adjustment system. In reality, the EXE scenario, which implies completely exempting energy-intensive industries, could be difficult to implement due to various practical constraints, such as equity and reduction targets and other industries; therefore, the REB scenario presents the most realistic approach and appears to have an effect that could compensate for the burden of economic activities and emissions regulations in these industries. Originality/value - This paper confirms the vulnerability of the Korean industrial the risk of carbon leakage, demonstrating that some industrial sectors could be exposed to losing international competitiveness by implementing carbon reduction policies such as the Korean ETS. The contribution of this paper is the identification of proposed approaches to protect Korean industries in the process of achieving the 2030 reduction target by analyzing the effects of BCA scenarios using a CGE model.