• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제16권3호
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• pp.261-267
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• 2007

In this study, the Slab Ocean Model (SOM) is coupled with an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) which developed in University of Kangnung based on the land surface model of Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). The purposes of this study are to understand radiative role of clouds considering of the atmospheric feedback, and to compare the Clouds Radiative Forcing (CRF) come from the analyses using the clear-cloud sky method and CGCM. The new CGCM was integrated by using two sets of the clouds with radiative role (EXP-A) and without radiative role (EXP-B). Clouds in this two cases show the negative effect $-26.0\;Wm^{-2}$ of difference of radiation budget at top of atmosphere (TOA). The annual global means radiation budget of this simulation at TOA is larger than the estimations ($-17.0 Wm^{-2}$) came from Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE). The work showed the surface negative effect with $-18.6 Wm^{-2}$ in the two different simulations of CRF. Otherwise, sensible heat flux in the simulation shows a great contribution with positive forcing of $+24.4 Wm^{-2}$. It is found that cooling effect to the surface temperature due to radiative role of clouds is about $7.5^{\circ}C$. From this study it could make an accurate of the different CRF estimation considering either feedback of EXP-B or not EXP-A under clear-sky and cloud-sky conditions respectively at TOA. This result clearly shows its difference of CRF $-11.1 Wm^{-2}$.

• 한국실내디자인학회논문집
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.3-10
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• 2012

Vilhelm Wohlert is the Danish architect who designed Louisiana Museum of Modern Art near Copenhagen. Because of Louisiana Museum's popularity, Vilhelm Wohlert's name was started to be aware since 1990s. Although he is a well-known architect in Denmark, unfortunately his name is unknown in other countries. He designed various design projects from small scale furniture design to large scale museum and public projects. There are three programmatic categories in his architecture: exhibition programs including Louisiana Museum, residential program including private houses, and public programs including churches and schools. This thesis focuses on his residential design projects. Even though he designed a multi-family houses, Wohlert's house design consists of mainly one-off large private houses located in a nice natural environment. In chapter 3, the general history of his house projects was studied. Among them, the first exhibition house for Forum was explained more deeply to show Wohlert's early house design philosophy. In chapter 4, three built house projects were analyzed in detail. Analytical diagrams were used to show the key elements in the residential space. They are program composition, circulation, spatialization elements, final construction. His buildings have been compared with Alvar Aalto, Frank Lloyd Wright, and other Scandinavian architects. But there are some major differences that make Wohlert's design unique. In chapter 5, the case analysis results were summarized together to highlight the specific design characteristics found in Wohlert's residential design process. The universal spatial quality found in his residential projects can be applied in contemporary spatial designs.

• 한국환경복원기술학회지
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• 제5권5호
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• pp.1-10
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• 2002

우리나라의 기후변화연구에서 삼림생태계의 영향과 적응은 가장 중요한 관심사중 하나이다. 지리적 위치와 통일문제 등을 고려할 때, 한반도는 역동적인 개발이 이루어질 지역이며 인구와 경제적 상황의 변화로 삼림 생태계에 급격한 변화가 예상된다. 기후변화의 영향은 이러한 상황을 더욱 복잡하게 만들게 될 것이다. 본 연구에서는 이런 영향을 평가하기 위해, IS92a 시나리오의 GCMs(General Circulation Models)결과들을 이용하여 가능한 기온 증가 범위내에서 삼림생태계의 변화를 예측하였다. 변화를 추정하기 위해 AIM/Impact[Korea](the Asian-Pacific Integrated Model) 모형을 이용하여 시기별 Holdridge 생물기후대를 예측하고 목본식물의 이동속도를 고려한 지역삼림의 영향 및 적응 패턴을 분석하여 생태계 변화로 인한 경제적 가치 손실액을 추정하였다. 분석 결과는 다음과 같이 요약된다. 1) 목본식물의 추정 평균이동속도 0.25km/년의 경우, 한반도에서 삼림소실지역은 발생하지 않는 것으로 예측되었다. 그러나 인위적 개입이 없는 경우 고사의 위험이 높은 지역은 남한의 경우 남한 총면적의 14%를 차지하였고, 북한은 18%정도의 면적이 고사 위험이 있는 것으로 나타났다. 남한 고사위험지역의 80%는 난온대림 지역으로 주로 남해일원과 전라도 서해안에서 발생하며, 북한은 고사위험지역의 대부분이 냉온대림지역으로 주로 평안도 내륙지역과 중국 접경지경, 함경남도의 영흥만 북부에서 나타났다. 2) 목본식물의 이동속도 변화에 따라 남한은 매년 0~976백만불, 북한은 0~2,492백만불 범위의 경제적 가치손실이 발생하는 것으로 예측되었다. 또한 목본식물의 추정 평균이동속도가 0.25km/년일 경우, 한반도 전체의 가치손실액은 매년 3,471백만불에 달했으며, 남한의 경우 목본식물의 이동속도가 0.5km/년 이상인 경우 삼림의 경제적 가치 손실은 발생하지 않았다.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제55권4호
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• pp.55-63
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• 2013

This study investigates the trends and uncertainty of the impacts of climate change on paddy rice production in the Geumho river basin. The Long Ashton Research Station stochastic Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was used to derive future climate data for the Geumho river basin from 15 General Circulation models (GCMs) for 3 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (A2, A1B and B1) included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th assessment report. The Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) AquaCrop, a water-driven crop model, was statistically calibrated for the 1982 to 2010 climate. The index of agreement (IoA), prediction efficiency ($R^2$), percent bias (PBIAS), root mean square error (RMSE) and a visual technique were used to evaluate the adjusted AquaCrop simulated yield values. The adjusted simulated yields showed RMSE, NSE, IoA and PBIAS of 0.40, 0.26, 0.76 and 0.59 respectively. The 5, 9 and 15 year central moving averages showed $R^2$ of 0.78, 0.90 and 0.96 respectively after adjustment. AquaCrop was run for the 2020s (2011-2030), 2050s (2046-2065) and 2090s (2080-2099). Climate change projections for Geumho river basin generally indicate a hotter and wetter future climate with maximum increase in the annual temperature of $4.5^{\circ}C$ in the 2090s A1B, as well as maximum increase in the rainfall of 45 % in the 2090s A2. The means (and ranges) of paddy rice yields are projected to increase by 21 % (17-25 %), 34 % (27-42 %) and 43 % (31-54 %) for the 2020s, 2050s and 2090s, respectively. The A1B shows the largest rice yield uncertainty in all time slices with standard deviation of 0.148, 0.189 and $0.173t{\cdot}ha^{-1}$ for the 2020s, 2050s and 2090s, respectively.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제55권4호
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• pp.95-106
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• 2013

It is now generally known that dynamical climate modeling outputs include systematic biases in reproducing the properties of atmospheric variables such as, preciptation and temerature. There is thus, general consensus among the researchers about the need of bias-correction process prior to using climate model results especially for hydrologic applications. Among the number of bias-correction methods, distribution (e.g., cumulative distribution fuction, CDF) mapping based approach has been evaluated as one of the skillful techniques. This study investigates the uncertainty of using various CDF mapping-based methods for bias-correciton in assessing regional climate change Impacts. Two different dynamicailly-downscaled Global Circulation Model results (CCSM and GFDL under ARES4 A2 scenario) using Regional Spectial Model for retrospective peiod (1969-2000) and future period (2039-2069) were collected over the west central Florida. Total 12 possible methods (i.e., 3 for developing distribution by each of 4 for estimating biases in future projections) were examined and the variations among the results using different methods were evaluated in various ways. The results for daily temperature showed that while mean and standard deviation of Tmax and Tmin has relatively small variation among the bias-correction methods, monthly maximum values showed as significant variation (~2'C) as the mean differences between the retrospective simulations and future projections. The accuracy of raw preciptiation predictions was much worse than temerature and bias-corrected results appreared to be more significantly influenced by the methodologies. Furthermore the uncertainty of bias-correction was found to be relevant to the performance of climate model (i.e., CCSM results which showed relatively worse accuracy showed larger variation among the bias-correction methods). Concludingly bias-correction methodology is an important sourse of uncertainty among other processes that may be required for cliamte change impact assessment. This study underscores the need to carefully select a bias-correction method and that the approach for any given analysis should depend on the research question being asked.

• 한국정보통신학회논문지
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.420-429
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• 2004

인체 생리의 부조화에 의한 기능적 이상 진단이 가시화 장비나 임상병리 소견으로도 진단할 수 없는 경우가 있기 때문에, 현대과학과 의공학의 특성을 접목한 EFG(Electro Functio Gram：기능전도) 측정 개념의 진단기술 개발이 요구되고 있다. 따라서 이러한 기능적 진단기술을 이용하여 양ㆍ한방 모든 분야에서 기초 진단기로 사용할 수 있는 재현성과 신뢰성, 편리성을 갖춘 범용의 진단시스템으로 개발하였다. 또한, 한의학적진단 및 치료를 위한 기와 혈의 인체 순환을 진단할 수 있는 사지 8CH(양,음경락), 두부 2CH 동시계측 방법 및 일괄 부착식 전극을 개발하였다. 성인 남자 20명(정상인)을 대상으로 한 임상데이터 분석결과, 인체의 12경락의 상태 및 자율신경계통의 상태를 진단할 수 있어서, 진단장비로써의 유의성을 확인하였다. 따라서, 본 논문에서는 인체 12부위의 음경락 양경락을 측정할 수 있는 H/W 및 S/W을 구현하고, EFG 체계를 구축하여 생체-전기적 반응에 의한 한의학적 진단 시스템을 설계하였다.

• 농촌계획
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.153-168
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• 2017

The main objective of this study was to assess reference evapotranspiration based on multiple GCMs (General Circulation Models) and estimation methods. In this study, 10 GCMs based on the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 scenario were used to estimate reference evapotranspiration. 54 ASOS (Automated Synoptic Observing System) data were constructed by statistical downscaling techniques. The meteorological variables of precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation were produced using GCMs. For the past and future periods, we estimated reference evapotranspiration by GCMs and analyzed the statistical characteristics and analyzed its uncertainty. Five methods (BC: Blaney-Criddle, HS: Hargreaves-Samani, MK: Makkink, MS: Matt-Shuttleworth, and PM: Penman-Monteith) were selected to analyze the uncertainty by reference evapotranspiration estimation methods. We compared the uncertainty of reference evapotranspiration method by the variable expansion and analyzed which variables greatly influence reference evapotranspiration estimation. The posterior probabilities of five methods were estimated as BC: 0.1792, HS: 0.1775, MK: 0.2361, MS: 0.2054, and PM: 0.2018. The posterior probability indicated how well reference evapotranspiration estimated with 10 GCMs for five methods reflected the estimated reference evapotranspiration using the observed data. Through this study, we analyzed the overall characteristics of reference evapotranspiration according to GCMs and reference evapotranspiration estimation methods The results of this study might be used as a basic data for preparing the standard method of reference evapotranspiration to derive the water management method under climate change.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2012년도 학술발표회
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• pp.458-458
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• 2012

Climate extreme variability is a major cause of disaster such as flood and drought types occurred in Korea and its effects is also more severe damage in last decades which can be danger mature events in the future. The main aim of this study was to assess the effectives of climate change on drought for an agriculture as Nakdong basin in Korea using climate change data in the future from data of General Circulation Models (GCM) of ECHO-G, with the developing countries like Korea, the developed climate scenario of medium-high greenhouse gas emission was proposed of the SRES A2. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was applied for drought evaluation. The drought index (SPI) applied for sites in catchment and it is evaluated accordingly by current and future precipitation data, specific as determined for data from nine precipitation stations with data covering the period 1980-2009 for current and three periods 2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099 for future; time scales of 3month were used for evaluating. The results determined drought duration, magnitude and spatial extent. The drought in catchment act intensively occurred in March, April, May and November and months of drought extreme often appeared annual in May and November; drought frequent is a non-uniform cyclic pattern in an irregular repetitive manner, but results showed drought intensity increasing in future periods. The results indicated also spatial point of view, the SPI analysis showed two of drought extents; local drought acting on one or more one of sites and entire drought as cover all of site in catchment. In addition, the meteorology drought simulation maps of spatial drought representation were carried out with GIS software to generate for some drought extreme years in study area. The method applied in this study are expected to be appropriately applicable to the evaluation of the effects of extreme hydrologic events, the results also provide useful for the drought warning and sustainable water resources management strategies and policy in agriculture basins.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제61권6호
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• pp.81-92
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• 2019

The objective of this study is to evaluate hydrologic impacts of climate change according to downscaling methods using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model at watershed scale. We used the APCC Integrated Modeling Solution (AIMS) for assessing various General Circulation Models (GCMs) and downscaling methods. AIMS provides three downscaling methods: 1) BCSA (Bias-Correction & Stochastic Analogue), 2) Simple Quantile Mapping (SQM), 3) SDQDM (Spatial Disaggregation and Quantile Delta Mapping). To assess future hydrologic responses of climate change, we adopted three GCMs: CESM1-BGC for flood, MIROC-ESM for drought, and HadGEM2-AO for Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) national standard scenario. Combined nine climate change scenarios were assessed by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). SWAT model was established at the Mankyung watershed and the applicability assessment was completed by performing calibration and validation from 2008 to 2017. Historical reproducibility results from BCSA, SQM, SDQDM of three GCMs show different patterns on annual precipitation, maximum temperature, and four selected ETCCDI. BCSA and SQM showed high historical reproducibility compared with the observed data, however SDQDM was underestimated, possibly due to the uncertainty of future climate data. Future hydrologic responses presented greater variability in SQM and relatively less variability in BCSA and SDQDM. This study implies that reasonable selection of GCMs and downscaling methods considering research objective is important and necessary to minimize uncertainty of climate change scenarios.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2018년도 학술발표회
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• pp.360-360
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• 2018

기후변화에 따른 강우특성의 변화는 다양한 기상이변과 극한사상의 발현으로 사회적 관심이 높아지고 있는 이슈이다. 일반적인 기후변화 연구는 전지구 기후 모델 (GCM, General Circulation Model) 산출물에 기반하여 생산된 미래 기상정보를 바탕으로 이루어진다. 최근 국내 연구에서 주로 활용되는 자료는 IPCC 5차보고서(AR5)의 과학적 기반자료로 활용되는 CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5) GCM 산출물이다. 수자원, 농업, 경제의 다양한 분야에서 기후변화 영향평가가 심층적으로 이루어지고 있는 가운데 미래기간에 대한 GCM 산출물에 대한 신뢰성에 대한 평가 연구는 상대적으로 미흡한 실정이다. 모델의 신뢰성은 산출물의 실제 현상에 대한 재현성을 평가함으로서 가늠할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 한반도 지역에 대한 전지구 모델의 성능을 평가하기 위해 동아시아 지역의 격자단위 관측자료를 수집하여 과거기간(1970~2005)에 대한 강우특성 공간분포를 분석하고 이에 대한 GCM 산출물의 재현성을 평가하였다. 위도와 경도에 따른 강우특성의 공간적 변동성에 대한 GCM 결과의 상관성과 평균/절대오차를 산정하여 29개 CMIP5 GCM의 순위를 결정하여 제시하였다. 이 분석은 동아시아 해안지역과 한반도 지역을 구분하고 다양한 강우특성에 대한 재현성을 통합적으로 고려하여 이루어졌다. 연구 결과 오차 통계와 대상지역에 따라 GCM 순위가 상이하게 나타났으며 특히 공간분포의 패턴과 절대적 오차를 기준으로 판단한 GCM 순위가 크게 다르게 나타났다. 대체로 Hadley Centre 계열 모델의 동아시아 지역에 대한 강우특성 재현성이 높게 나타났으며 한반도 지역만을 대상으로 평가했을 때 MPI_ESM_MR과 CMCC center 계열 모델의 재현성이 높게 나타났다. 본 연구결과는 향후 한반도 지역의 기후변화 영향평가에 가중있게 고려되어야 할 GCM의 선정과 GCM 성능고려에 따른 기후변화 예측 불확실성 평가에 적용될 수 있으며 다양한 영향평가 연구결과의 신뢰도 제고에 기여할 것으로 기대된다.