• Title/Summary/Keyword: gamma poisson model

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The Study for NHPP Software Reliability Growth Model based on Exponentiated Exponential Distribution (지수화 지수 분포에 의존한 NHPP 소프트웨어 신뢰성장 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.11 no.5 s.43
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    • pp.9-18
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    • 2006
  • Finite failure NHPP models presented in the literature exhibit either constant, monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing failure occurrence rates per fault. In this paper, Goel-Okumoto and Yamada-Ohba-Osaki model was reviewed, proposes the exponentiated exponential distribution reliability model, which maked out efficiency substituted for gamma and Weibull model(2 parameter shape illustrated by Gupta and Kundu(2001) Algorithm to estimate the parameters used to maximum likelihood estimator and bisection method, model selection based on SSE, AIC statistics and Kolmogorov distance, for the sake of efficient model, was employed. Analysis of failure using NTDS data set for the sake of proposing shape parameter of the exponentiated exponential distribution was employed. This analysis of failure data compared with the exponentiated exponential distribution model and the existing model (using arithmetic and Laplace trend tests, bias tests) is presented.

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A Simulation Model for the Intermittent Hydrologic Process(I) - Alternate Renewal Process (ARP) and Continuous Probability Distribution - (간헐(間歇) 수문과정(水文過程)의 모의발생(模擬發生) 모형(模型)(I) - 교대재생과정(交代再生過程)(ARP)과 연속확률분포(連續確率分布) -)

  • Lee, Jae Joon;Lee, Jung Sik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.509-521
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    • 1994
  • This study is an effort to develop computer simulation model that produce precipitation patterns from stochastic model. A stochastic model is formulated for the process of daily precipitation with considering the sequences of wet and dry days and the precipitation amounts on wet days. This study consists of 2 papers and the process of precipitation occurrence is modelled by an alternate renewal process (ARP) in paper (I). In the ARP model for the precipitation occurrence, four discrete distributions, used to fit the wet and dry spells, were as follows; truncated binomial distribution (TBD), truncated Poisson distribution (TPD), truncated negative binomial distribution (TNBD), logarithmic series distribution (LSD). In companion paper (II) the process of occurrence is developed by Markov chain. The amounts of precipitation, given that precipitation has occurred, are described by a Gamma. Pearson Type-III, Extremal Type-III, and 3 parameter Weibull distribution. Daily precipitation series model consists of two models, A-Wand A-G model, by combining the process of precipitation occurrence and a continuous probability distribution on the precipitation of wet days. To evaluate the performance of the simulation model, output from the model was compared with historical data of 7 stations in the Nakdong and Seomjin river basin. The results of paper (1) show that it is possible to design a model for the synthetic generation of IX)int precipitation patterns.

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Effects of Smoking on Cost of Hospitalization and Length of Stay among Patients with Lung Cancer in Iran: a Hospital-Based Study

  • Sari, Ali Akbari;Rezaei, Satar;Arab, Mohammad;Majdzadeh, Reza;Matin, Behzad Karami;Zandian, Hamed
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.17 no.9
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    • pp.4421-4426
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    • 2016
  • Background: Smoking is recognized as a main leading preventable cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. It is responsible for a considerable financial burden both on the health system and in society. This study aimed to examine the effect of smoking on cost of hospitalization and length of stay (LoS) among patients with lung cancer in Iran in 2014. Materials and Methods: A total of 415 patients were included in the study. Data on age, sex, insurance status, type of hospitals, type of insurance, geographic local, length of stay and cost of hospitalization was extracted by medical records and smoking status was obtained from a telephone survey. To compare cost of hospitalization and LoS for different smoking groups, current smokers, former smokers, and never smokers, a gamma regression model and zero-truncated poisson regression were used, respectively. Results: Compared with never smokers, current and former smokers showed a 48% and 35% increase in hospitalization costs, respectively. Also, hospital LoS for current and former smokers was 72% and 31% higher than for never smokers, respectively. Conclusions: Our study indicated that cigarette smoking imposes a significant financial burden on hospitals in Iran. It is, however, recommended that more research should be done to implement and evaluate hospital based smoking cessation interventions to better increase cessation rates in these settings.

Various modeling approaches in auto insurance pricing (다양한 모형화를 통한 자동차 보험가격 산출)

  • Kim, Myung-Joon;Kim, Yeong-Hwa
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.515-526
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    • 2009
  • Pricing based on proper risk has been one of main issues in auto insurance. In this paper, we review how the techniques of pricing in auto insurance have been developed and suggest a better approach which meets the existing risk statistically by comparison. The generalized linear model (GLM) method is discussed for pricing with different distributions. With GLM approach, the distribution of error assumed plays an main role for the best fit corresponding to the characteristics of dependent variables. Tweedie distribution is considered as one of error distributions in addition to widely used Gamma and Poisson distribution. With these different types of error assumption for estimating the proper premium in auto insurance, various modeling approaches are possible. In this paper, various modeling approaches with different assumptions for estimating proper risk is discussed and also real example is given by assuming different.

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A Stochastic Study for the Emergency Treatment of Carbon Monoxide Poisoning in Korea (일산화탄소중독(一酸化炭素中毒)의 진료대책(診療對策) 수립(樹立)을 위한 추계학적(推計學的) 연구(硏究))

  • Kim, Yong-Ik;Yun, Dork-Ro;Shin, Young-Soo
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.135-152
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    • 1983
  • Emergency medical service is an important part of the health care delivery system, and the optimal allocation of resources and their efficient utilization are essentially demanded. Since these conditions are the prerequisite to prompt treatment which, in turn, will be crucial for life saving and in reducing the undesirable sequelae of the event. This study, taking the hyperbaric chamber for carbon monoxide poisoning as an example, is to develop a stochastic approach for solving the problems of optimal allocation of such emergency medical facility in Korea. The hyperbaric chamber, in Korea, is used almost exclusively for the treatment of acute carbon monoxide poisoning, most of which occur at home, since the coal briquette is used as domestic fuel by 69.6 per cent of the Korean population. The annual incidence rate of the comatous and fatal carbon monoxide poisoning is estimated at 45.5 per 10,000 of coal briquette-using population. It offers a serious public health problem and occupies a large portion of the emergency outpatients, especially in the winter season. The requirement of hyperbaric chambers can be calculated by setting the level of the annual queueing rate, which is here defined as the proportion of the annual number of the queued patients among the annual number of the total patients. The rate is determined by the size of the coal briquette-using population which generate a certain number of carbon monoxide poisoning patients in terms of the annual incidence rate, and the number of hyperbaric chambers per hospital to which the patients are sent, assuming that there is no referral of the patients among hospitals. The queueing occurs due to the conflicting events of the 'arrival' of the patients and the 'service' of the hyperbaric chambers. Here, we can assume that the length of the service time of hyperbaric chambers is fixed at sixty minutes, and the service discipline is based on 'first come, first served'. The arrival pattern of the carbon monoxide poisoning is relatively unique, because it usually occurs while the people are in bed. Diurnal variation of the carbon monoxide poisoning can hardly be formulated mathematically, so empirical cumulative distribution of the probability of the hourly arrival of the patients was used for Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the probability of queueing by the number of the patients per day, for the cases of one, two or three hyperbaric chambers assumed to be available per hospital. Incidence of the carbon monoxide poisoning also has strong seasonal variation, because of the four distinctive seasons in Korea. So the number of the patients per day could not be assumed to be distributed according to the Poisson distribution. Testing the fitness of various distributions of rare event, it turned out to be that the daily distribution of the carbon monoxide poisoning fits well to the Polya-Eggenberger distribution. With this model, we could forecast the number of the poisonings per day by the size of the coal-briquette using population. By combining the probability of queueing by the number of patients per day, and the probability of the number of patients per day in a year, we can estimate the number of the queued patients and the number of the patients in a year by the number of hyperbaric chamber per hospital and by the size of coal briquette-using population. Setting 5 per cent as the annual queueing rate, the required number of hyperbaric chambers was calculated for each province and for the whole country, in the cases of 25, 50, 75 and 100 per cent of the treatment rate which stand for the rate of the patients treated by hyperbaric chamber among the patients who are to be treated. Findings of the study were as follows. 1. Probability of the number of patients per day follows Polya-Eggenberger distribution. $$P(X=\gamma)=\frac{\Pi\limits_{k=1}^\gamma[m+(K-1)\times10.86]}{\gamma!}\times11.86^{-{(\frac{m}{10.86}+\gamma)}}$$ when$${\gamma}=1,2,...,n$$$$P(X=0)=11.86^{-(m/10.86)}$$ when $${\gamma}=0$$ Hourly arrival pattern of the patients turned out to be bimodal, the large peak was observed in $7 : 00{\sim}8 : 00$ a.m., and the small peak in $11 : 00{\sim}12 : 00$ p.m. 2. In the cases of only one or two hyperbaric chambers installed per hospital, the annual queueing rate will be at the level of more than 5 per cent. Only in case of three chambers, however, the rate will reach 5 per cent when the average number of the patients per day is 0.481. 3. According to the results above, a hospital equipped with three hyperbaric chambers will be able to serve 166,485, 83,242, 55,495 and 41,620 of population, when the treatmet rate are 25, 50, 75 and 100 per cent. 4. The required number of hyperbaric chambers are estimated at 483, 963, 1,441 and 1,923 when the treatment rate are taken as 25, 50, 75 and 100 per cent. Therefore, the shortage are respectively turned out to be 312, 791. 1,270 and 1,752. The author believes that the methodology developed in this study will also be applicable to the problems of resource allocation for the other kinds of the emergency medical facilities.

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Study on the Methodology of the Microbial Risk Assessment in Food (식품중 미생물 위해성평가 방법론 연구)

  • 이효민;최시내;윤은경;한지연;김창민;김길생
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.319-326
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    • 1999
  • Recently, it is continuously rising to concern about the health risk being induced by microorganisms in food such as Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Listeria monocytogenes. Various organizations and regulatory agencies including U.S.FPA, U.S.DA and FAO/WHO are preparing the methodology building to apply microbial quantitative risk assessment to risk-based food safety program. Microbial risks are primarily the result of single exposure and its health impacts are immediate and serious. Therefore, the methodology of risk assessment differs from that of chemical risk assessment. Microbial quantitative risk assessment consists of tow steps; hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response assessment and risk characterization. Hazard identification is accomplished by observing and defining the types of adverse health effects in humans associated with exposure to foodborne agents. Epidemiological evidence which links the various disease with the particular exposure route is an important component of this identification. Exposure assessment includes the quantification of microbial exposure regarding the dynamics of microbial growth in food processing, transport, packaging and specific time-temperature conditions at various points from animal production to consumption. Dose-response assessment is the process characterizing dose-response correlation between microbial exposure and disease incidence. Unlike chemical carcinogens, the dose-response assessment for microbial pathogens has not focused on animal models for extrapolation to humans. Risk characterization links the exposure assessment and dose-response assessment and involve uncertainty analysis. The methodology of microbial dose-response assessment is classified as nonthreshold and thresh-old approach. The nonthreshold model have assumption that one organism is capable of producing an infection if it arrives at an appropriate site and organism have independence. Recently, the Exponential, Beta-poission, Gompertz, and Gamma-weibull models are using as nonthreshold model. The Log-normal and Log-logistic models are using as threshold model. The threshold has the assumption that a toxicant is produce by interaction of organisms. In this study, it was reviewed detailed process including risk value using model parameter and microbial exposure dose. Also this study suggested model application methodology in field of exposure assessment using assumed food microbial data(NaCl, water activity, temperature, pH, etc.) and the commercially used Food MicroModel. We recognized that human volunteer data to the healthy man are preferred rather than epidemiological data fur obtaining exact dose-response data. But, the foreign agencies are studying the characterization of correlation between human and animal. For the comparison of differences to the population sensitivity: it must be executed domestic study such as the establishment of dose-response data to the Korean volunteer by each microbial and microbial exposure assessment in food.

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Comparative Study on the Estimation Methods of Traffic Crashes: Empirical Bayes Estimate vs. Observed Crash (교통사고 추정방법 비교 연구: 경험적 베이즈 추정치 vs. 관측교통사고건수)

  • Shin, Kangwon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.5D
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    • pp.453-459
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    • 2010
  • In the study of traffic safety, it is utmost important to obtain more reliable estimates of the expected crashes for a site (or a segment). The observed crashes have been mainly used as the estimate of the expected crashes in Korea, while the empirical Bayes (EB) estimates based on the Poisson-gamma mixture model have been used in the USA and several European countries. Although numerous studies have used the EB method for estimating the expected crashes and/or the effectiveness of the safety countermeasures, no past studies examine the difference in the estimation errors between the two estimates. Thus, this study compares the estimation errors of the two estimates using a Monte Carlo simulation study. By analyzing the crash dataset at 3,000,000 simulated sites, this study reveals that the estimation errors of the EB estimates are always less than those of the observed crashes. Hence, it is imperative to incorporate the EB method into the traffic safety research guideline in Korea. However, the results show that the differences in the estimation errors between the two estimates decrease as the uncertainty of the prior distribution increases. Consequently, it is recommended that the EB method be used with reliable hyper-parameter estimates after conducting a comprehensive examination on the estimated negative binomial model.