• Corrosion Science and Technology
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• 제3권4호
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• pp.166-171
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• 2004

Recent developments in Bridge Management Systems (BMS) and in Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) of bridges, have raised the need for evaluation procedure of future condition (Deterioration) of a bridge. Predicting future deterioration is not an easy task due to limited past data to extrapolate from and also due to difficulty in measuring actual deterioration such as section loss of steel on an actual steel bridge. Also, increase in live load and reduction of resistance are random variables, thus a probabilistic approach should be adopted for determining the future deterioration. Due to difficulties in evaluation of future deterioration on steel bridges, accepting uncertainties within a reasonable error, a deterministic procedure using bridge condition rating can be a useful tool for projection of future condition of bridges to identify repair and maintenance needs. The object of this paper is to determine applicability of evaluating deterioration of steel bridge components based on Bridge condition ratings. Bridge condition ratings of bridge components show wide variation for bridges of same age and does not directly correlate well with the age of the bridge and/or deterioration of the bridge. High uncertainty can be reduced by breaking down the rating and by sensitivity analysis. From refined condition rating data, generalized deterioration profile of structures based on age can be derived. Examples are shown for sample bridges in USA. Approximately, 3,000 short to medium span steel bridges were listed in the inventory database. Results show wide variation of rating factors but by subdividing the Bridge condition ratings for various categories general deterioration profiles of steel bridges can be determined.

• 한국지구과학회지
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• 제44권4호
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• pp.255-263
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• 2023

Western coastal area of Chungnam, including Cheonsu Bay and Garorim Bay, has suffered from hot and cold extremes. In this study, the extreme sea surface temperature on the western coast of Chungnam was analyzed using the quantile regression method, which extracts the linear regression values in all quantiles. The regional MOHID (MOdelo HIDrodinâmico) model, with a high resolution on a 1/60° grid, was constructed to reproduce the extreme sea surface temperature. For future prediction, the SSP5-8.5 scenario data of the CMIP6 model were used to simulate sea surface temperature variability. Results showed that the extreme sea surface temperature of Cheonsu Bay in August 2017 was successfully simulated, and this extreme sea surface temperature had a significant negative correlation with the Pacific decadal variability index. As a result of future climate prediction, it was found that an average of 2.9℃ increased during the simulation period of 86 years in the Chungnam west coast and there was a seasonal difference (3.2℃ in summer, 2.4℃ in winter). These seasonal differences indicate an increase in the annual temperature range, suggesting that extreme events may occur more frequently in the future.

• 한국해안해양공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국해안해양공학회 2003년도 한국해안해양공학발표논문집
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• pp.18-27
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• 2003

The goal of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration for preventing global warming in future. However, there are many unknown factors regarding stabilization of CO2 concentration. What level of concentration should be appropriate to prevent global warming？ When should we stop the increase of CO2 concentration\ulcorner What kind of countermeasures of reducing CO2 emission will be available for CO2 stabilization？(omitted)

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제56권4호
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• pp.59-68
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• 2014

Climate change influences multiple environmental aspects, certain of which are specifically related to agricultural water resources such as water supply, water management, droughts and floods. Understanding the impact of climate change on reservoirs in relation to the passage of time is an important component of water resource management for stable water supply maintenance. Changes on rainfall and hydrologic patterns due to climate change can increases the occurrence of reservoir water shortage and affect the future availability of agricultural water resources. It is a main concern for sustainable development in agricultural water resources management to evaluate adaptation capability of water supply under the future climate conditions. The purpose of this study is to predict the sustainability of agricultural water demand and supply under future climate change by applying an irrigation vulnerability assessment model to investigate evidence of climate change occurrences at a local scale with respect to potential water supply capacity and irrigation water requirement. Thus, it is a recommended practice in the development of water supply management strategies on reservoir operation under climate change.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제57권2호
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• pp.15-26
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• 2015

The purpose of this paper is to develop a software tool, PGA-CC (Projection of hydrology via Grid-based Assessment for Climate Change) to evaluate the present hydrologic cycle and the future watershed hydrology by climate change. PGA-CC is composed of grid-based input data pre-processing module, hydrologic cycle calculation module, output analysis module, and output data post-processing module. The grid-based hydrological model was coded by Fortran and compiled using Compaq Fortran 6.6c, and the Graphic User Interface was developed by using Visual C#. Other most elements viz. Table and Graph, and GIS functions were implemented by MapWindow. The applicability of PGA-CC was tested by assessing the future hydrology of South Korea by HadCM3 SRES B1 and A2 climate change scenarios. For the whole country, the tool successfully assessed the future hydrological components including input data and evapotranspiration, soil moisture, surface runoff, lateral flow, base flow etc. From the spatial outputs, we could understand the hydrological changes both seasonally and regionally.

• 대기
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.515-522
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• 2014

In this study it is attempted to estimate the possible change in energy use for residential and commercial sector in Korea under a future climate change senario. Based on the national energy use and observed temperature data during the period 1991~2010, the optimal base temperature for determining heating and cooling degree days (HDD and CDD) is calculated. Then, net changes in fossil fuel and electricity uses that are statistically linked with a temperature variation are quantified through regression analyses of HDD and CDD against the energy use. Finally, the future projection of energy use is estimated by applying the regression model and future temperature projections by the CMIP5 results under the RCP8.5 scenario. The results indicate that, overall, the net annual energy use will decrease mostly due to a large decrease in the fossil fuel use for heating. However, a clear seasonal contrast in energy use is anticipated in the electricity use; there will be an increase in a warm-season demand for cooling but a decrease in a cold-season demand for heating.

• 한국전자통신학회논문지
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• 제11권6호
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• pp.545-552
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• 2016

디지털 디스플레이를 통해서 다양한 콘텐츠와 메시지를 전달하는 디지털 사이니지가 국가의 미래형 전략산업으로 주목받고 있다. 특히, 국내 디지털 사이니지 산업은 세계 최고 수준의 디스플레이 산업과 유무선 네트워크를 기반으로 국제적인 경쟁력을 보유하고 있다는 평가를 받고 있다. 본 논문은 디지털 사이니지 산업의 현황을 산업계 및 표준화 동향, 기술 개발 현황 등에 대해서 상세히 기술하고 미래형 디지털 사이니지에 적용될 수 있는 초고화질 영상 및 사용자 인식 기술에 대해서도 분석하였다. 그리고 최근 지적된 디지털 사이니지 산업의 문제점과 이를 해결하기 위한 활성화 방안을 도출하여 제시하였다.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.303-311
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• 1992

It is very important to estimate the future medical care expenditure, because medical care expenditure escalation is a big problem not only in the health industry but also in the Korean economy today. This study was designed to project the medical care expenditure in view of population age change. The data of this study were the population projection data based on National Census Data(1990) of the National Statistical Office and the Statistical Reports of the Korea Medical Insurance Corporation. The future medical care expenditure was eatimated by the regression model and the optional simulation model. The significant results are as follows : 1. The future medical care expenditure will be 3,963 billion Won in the year 2000, 4,483 billion Won in 2010, and 4,826 billion Won in 2020, based on the 1990 market price considering only the population age change. 2. The proportion of the total medical care expenditure in the elderly over 65 will be 10.4% in 2000, 13.5% in 2010, and 16.9% in 2020. 3. The future medical care expenditure will be 4,306 billion Won in the year 2000, 5,101 billion Won in 2010, and 5,699 billion Won in 2020 based on the 1990 market price considering the age structure change and the change of the case-cost estimated by the regression model. 4. When we consider the age-structure change and inflation compared with the preceding year, the future medical care expenditurein 2020 will be 21 trillion Won based on a 5% inflation rate, 42 trillion Won based on a 7.5% inflation rate, and 84 trillion Won based on a 10% inflation rate. Consideration of the aged(65 years old and over) will be essential to understand the acute increase of medical care expenditure due to changes in age structure of the population. Therefore, alternative policies and programs for the caring of the aged should be further studied.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제4권2호
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• pp.141-158
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• 2013

본 연구에서는 IPCC SRES 6개 기후변화 시나리오(A2, A1B, A1FI, A1T, B1, and B2)를 기반으로 우리나라의 현재(1996~2005년)와 미래(2046~2055년, 2091~2100년)에 대한 냉난방도일을 전망하였다. 이를 위하여 전구 기후모델(CCSM3)의 미래 전망 결과를 지역규모 기후모델(MM5)을 이용한 다운스케일링을 통해 고해상도(18km)의 기온 전망을 수행하였다. 21세기 말의 한반도 기온은 현재 대비 약 $1.2{\sim}3.4^{\circ}C$ 수준까지 증가하는 것으로 전망된다. 기온 전망 결과를 이용하여 7개 권역별(서울 경기, 강원 산간, 중부 내륙, 남부 내륙, 남부 해안, 영동 울릉, 제주) 냉난방도일을 전망한 결과, 21세기 말의 난방도일은 현재 대비 8~25% 수준까지 감소하는 반면에 냉방도일은 242~1,448%까지 증가하였다. 또한, 난방기간은 약 1개월 정도 감소하며, 냉방기간은 최대 2개월 이상 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 현재에 비해 미래의 난방에너지 수요는 감소하지만, 냉방에너지 수요는 증가할 것으로 예측된다. 특히, 이러한 변화는 타 권역에 비해 강원산간권역과 제주권역에서 뚜렷하게 나타날 것으로 예측된다. 따라서 미래에는 난방을 위한 화석에너지보다 냉방에너지로 사용되는 전기에너지에 대한 수요관리가 현재보다 더욱 중요해질 수 있음을 의미한다.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제13권9호
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• pp.4501-4504
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• 2012

In recent decades, decreasing trends in esophageal cancer mortality have been observed across China. We here describe esophageal cancer mortality trends in Linzhou city, a high-incidence region of esophageal cancer in China, during 1988-2010 and make a esophageal cancer mortality projection in the period 2011-2020 using a Bayesian approach. Age standardized mortality rates were estimated by direct standardization to the World population structure in 1985. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis was carried out in order to investigate the effect of the age, period and birth cohort on esophageal cancer mortality in Linzhou during 1988-2010 and to estimate future trends for the period 2011-2020. Age-adjusted rates for men and women decreased from 1988 to 2005 and changed little thereafter. Risk increased from 30 years of age until the very elderly. Period effects showed little variation in risk throughout 1988-2010. In contrast, a cohort effect showed risk decreased greatly in later cohorts. Forecasting, based on BAPC modeling, resulted in a increasing burden of mortality and a decreasing age standardized mortality rate of esophageal cancer in Linzhou city. The decrease of esophageal cancer mortality risk since the 1930 cohort could be attributable to the improvements of socialeconomic environment and lifestyle. The standardized mortality rates of esophageal cancer should decrease continually. The effect of aging on the population could explain the increase in esophageal mortality projected for 2020.