• Title/Summary/Keyword: future forecast

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An LSTM Neural Network Model for Forecasting Daily Peak Electric Load of EV Charging Stations (EV 충전소의 일별 최대전력부하 예측을 위한 LSTM 신경망 모델)

  • Lee, Haesung;Lee, Byungsung;Ahn, Hyun
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.119-127
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    • 2020
  • As the electric vehicle (EV) market in South Korea grows, it is required to expand charging facilities to respond to rapidly increasing EV charging demand. In order to conduct a comprehensive facility planning, it is necessary to forecast future demand for electricity and systematically analyze the impact on the load capacity of facilities based on this. In this paper, we design and develop a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network model that predicts the daily peak electric load at each charging station using the EV charging data of KEPCO. First, we obtain refined data through data preprocessing and outlier removal. Next, our model is trained by extracting daily features per charging station and constructing a training set. Finally, our model is verified through performance analysis using a test set for each charging station type, and the limitations of our model are discussed.

Data Acquisition Technology (DAT) Selection Algorithm for Automated Progress Measurement and Management (진도관리 자동화를 위한 자료수집기술(DAT) 선정 방법)

  • Kang, Seung-Hee;Jung, Young-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.77-86
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    • 2012
  • Progress measurement provides project participants with valuable information in terms of 'current status', 'corrective countermeasure', and 'forecast of future risks'. However, the managerial effort (or workload) required to acquire and maintain detailed progress data has been the major barrier to practical implementation. Even though recent efforts in utilizing data acquisition technologies (DATs) have actively attempted to automate the progress measurement process, previous DAT research has only been focused on limited construction tasks or selected technologies. This paper proposes a DAT selection algorithm that automatically assign an appropriate DAT for every commodity item for an entire constriction project. Five different criteria were identified and developed in order to comprehend specific requirements for automating the progress measurement of each commodity group. A case-study and also a survey from practitioners were conducted in order to validate the proposed methodology.

A Study on the Fair Returns of Private Participants' Investments on BTO PPI Projects (BTO 민간투자사업 적정수익률에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Sung-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.121-131
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    • 2009
  • This study will estimate the fair return on private participants' investments on BTO type PPI (Private Public Infrastructure) projects using the data from past BTO projects in Korea. In the past, the real returns of $6%\sim9%$ were provided to private participants. The results of this study show that those returns were too high compared with the estimated fair returns, especially for projects with the minimum revenue guarantee (MRG) by the government. Moreover, the excess portion of the return over the fair return becomes even larger when there is a demand forecast bias. In reality, most of the BTO projects have far lower actual revenues than the initial forecasted revenue in concession agreements. This phenomenon implies that BTO projects have a tendency of overly forecasting revenues. If so, the value of the minimum revenue guarantee becomes larger, and therefore, the fair return to private participants should decrease. It is hoped that this study helps future BTO projects' concession agreements between the government and private participants to become more fair from the perspectives of risk and return profiles.

Development of Integrated Outlier Analysis System for Construction Monitoring Data (건설 계측 데이터에 대한 통합 이상치 분석 시스템 개발)

  • Jeon, Jesung
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.5-11
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    • 2020
  • Outliers detection and elimination included in field monitoring datum are essential for effective foundation of unusual movement, long and short range forecast of stability and future behavior to various structures. Integrated outlier analysis system for assessing long term time series data was developed in this study. Outlier analysis could be conducted in two step of primary analysis targeted at single dataset and second multi datasets analysis using synthesis value. Integrated outlier analysis system presents basic information for evaluating stability and predicting movement of structure combined with real-time safety management platform. Field application results showed increased correlation between synthesis value including similar sort of sensor showing constant trend and each single dataset. Various monitoring data in case of showing different trend can be used to analyse outlier through correlation-weighted value.

A Study on the Blurring Boundary Phenomena Expressed in Complex Fashion Space of 21th Century - Focusing on the Theories of Gill Deleuze and Felix Guattari - (21세기 복합적인 패션 공간에 나타난 탈경계 현상에 관한 연구 - 질 들뢰즈와 펠릭스 가타리의 이론을 중심으로 -)

  • Yang, Hee-Young;Yang, Sook-Hi
    • The Research Journal of the Costume Culture
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.600-615
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    • 2009
  • $21^{st}$ century post digital society orients co-existence, fusion, and blurring boundary than conflict, differentiation, and boundary, and makes a try liberal combination of various different objects. Furthermore, radical development of science and digital equipments offer technical possibility that could combine various fields. Hence, many different departments demolish their boundary, and combine for development of multi-functional and complex shape's products. For job-nomads, fashion attempts to combine with architecture, furniture, daily necessities, and digital equipments spontaneously. This paper aims at consideration about the blurring phenomena expressed in complex fashion space of $21^{st}$ century throughout empirical fashion photographs analysis, which show combination among fashion and various different fields. Blurring boundary phenomena of complex fashion space are classified with 4 parts as follows as: 1) furniturizing, 2) wearable dwelling, 3) lumiduct, 4) becoming fashion. Each parts are examined 8 aesthetical characteristics such as movement and lightness, hyper-link and openness, immateriality and inter-activeness, and diversity and ambiguity. $21^{st}$ century fashion has changed more simple and light, and creates new form throughout combination with many other fields, and enlarges its function and sphere. I think this paper would help certificating practical use of fashion space as multiple and complex space, and makes contribution to forecast about fashion development of the future and offer inspiration about creative and innovative fashion design.

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Trends of Recycling of Indium-Tin-Oxide (ITO) Target Materials for Transparent Conductive Electrodes (TCEs) (투명전극용 인듐 주석 산화물 타겟 소재의 재자원화 동향)

  • Hong, Sung-Jei;Lee, Jae Yong
    • Clean Technology
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.209-216
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    • 2015
  • Indium-Tin-Oxide (ITO) is a material that is widely used for transparent conductive electrodes (TCEs). Indium (In), chief element of the ITO, is expected to be depleted in the near future owing to its high cost and limited reserves. To overcome the issue, ITO has to be retained by recycling redundant ITO targets after manufacturing processes. In this article, we proposed an efficient recycling way of the redundant ITO targets with investigation of the current recycling tendencies in domestic and foreign countries. As a result, it was revealed that only In is recycled from the redundant targets in domestic and Japan. As well, fabrication of TCEs is being researched with ITO nanoparticles solutions. However, since the TCEs fabricated with ITO target is superior to those with other materials, it is thought that establishment of regeneration technology of ITO itself is demanded for an efficient recycling and fabrication of ITO target.

A Study on Logistics Distribution Industry's IoT Situation and Development Direction (국내외 물류산업의 사물인터넷(IoT) 현황과 발전방향에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Young-Tae
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.141-160
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    • 2015
  • IoT(Internet of Things) has become a major issue as new type of convergence technology, expending existing of USNs(Ubiquitous Sensor Networks), NFC(Near Field Communication), and M2M(Machine to Machine). The IoT technology defines as a networking for things, which can establish intelligent links collaboratively for sensing networking and processing between each other without human intervention. The purpose of this study is to investigate to forecast the future distribution changes and orientation of contribution of distribution industry on IoT and to provide the implication of distribution changes. To become a global market leader, IoT requires much more development of core technology of IoT for distribution industry, new service creation and try to use a market-based demand side strategy to create markets. So, to become a global leader in distribution industry, this study results show that first of all establishment of standardization of IoT, privacy safeguards, security issues, stability and value were more important than others. The research findings suggest that the development goals of IoT should strive to boost the creation of a global leader in distribution industry and convenience to consider consumers' demands as the most important thing.

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Analysis about relation of Long-term & Short-term Financial Market, Stock Market and Foreign Exchange Market of Korea (한국 장단기 금융시장, 주식 및 외환시장 연관성)

  • 김종권
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.22 no.50
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    • pp.105-125
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    • 1999
  • The results of analysis on foreign exchange market, stock and financial market after January of 1997 are that foreign exchange market will be affected by stock and financial market volatility about 1999. This means that stock and financial market are more stable than foreign exchange market. This also is supported by ‘financial market forecast of 1999 in Daewoo Economic Research Institute’. After won/dollar (end of period) will be increasing in 1,430 at second quarter of 1999, this is to downward 1,200 fourth quarter of 1999. This is somewhat based on government's higher exchange rate policy. But, after yield of corporate bond is to 11.0% at first quarter of 1999, this will be stable to 10.2% at fourth quarter. During the first quarter of 1999, yield of corporate bond is to somewhat increasing through sovereign debt and public bonds, technical adjustment of interest rate. After this, yield of corporate bond will be stable according to stability of price, magnification of money supply, restucturing of firms. So, stock market is favorably affected by stability of financial market. But, the pension and fund of USA, i.e., long-term portfolio investment fund, are injected through international firm's management. It is included by openness of audit, fair market about foreign investors. Finally, Moody's strong rating on the won-denominated bonds suggest that Korea's sovereign debt ratings could be restored to an investment grade in the near future. It sequentially includes inflow of foreign portfolio investment fund, fall of won/dollar foreign exchange rate (appreciation of won) and stability of yield of corporate bond.

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A financial feasibility analysis of architectural development projects that use probabilistic simulation analysis method (확률론적 시뮬레이션 분석방법을 적용한 건축개발사업의 재무적 타당성 분석)

  • Lee, Seong-Soo;Choi, Hee-Bok;Kang, Kyung-In
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.76-86
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    • 2007
  • Construction development work invents profit as those finalize object, and a make or break success of project depends on correct analysis and forecast business feasibility at project early. Business feasibility study would be decision-making under precarious situation because is connoting uncertainty that is future. estimate at present visual point essentially. Under uncertainty, a decision-making method is based on probability theory of statistics, but business feasibility study had applied with not feasibility study by probabilistic decision method but it by determinism derision method so far. Therefore in this study doing decision-making by a probability theory method for successful project at early business feasibility study, it present a probabilistic study method that use simulation that can supply a little more correct and reliable data to decision-maker As result, a probabilistic study method is more suitable than deterministic study method as technique for a financial feasibility study of construction development work. Making good use of this probabilistic study method at important business or careful decision-making, because efficient Judgment that is based accuracy and authoritativeness may become available.

The Early Stage Performance of Successful SMEs and a Desirable Policy for SMEs (성공한 중소기업의 창업초기 경영실적과 정책의 방향)

  • Kang, Won
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2014
  • This study examines the performance of the successful small and medium size firms in their early stage. No sign of widespread chasm or the death valley among the sample firm is identified. More than half the sample firms had made reasonable forecast on the uncertainty of their future business before they were incorporated. Overall results of empirical studies carried out in this article allow us to assert that the difficulties experienced in the early stage are mostly manageable within the organization. This implies that the Government support for start-ups in early stage should be discouraged. Empirical investigation across different periods reveals, however, that the Government may have significant roles to play when it comes down to controlling the macroeconomic shocks.

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