• 한국농림기상학회지
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.28-35
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• 2006

근년에 자주 나타나고 있는 봄철 과원의 서리피해는 관측된 기온이 비슷한 지역일지라도 개화 혹은 발아 단계의 과원에서 집중되고 있어 효율적인 상해 경보시스템 운영을 위해서는 발아기 혹은 만개기의 정확한 예측이 필요하다. 품종별 모수가 알려져 있는 포도 거봉, Campbell Early를 대상으로 생물계절모형을 적용하여 발아기를 추정하고 최저기온 예상치와 함께 늦서리 위험도 추정방법을 제시하였다. 이 방법은 발아 이후에 최저기온이 영하로 내려가면 상해가 발생한다고 가정하는데, 추정값의 오차범위를 고려한 발아일 이후 일 최저기온이 $-1.5^{\circ}C$ 이하로 떨어지면 경보(Warning), ${\pm}1.5^{\circ}C$ 사이면 주의보(Watch)를 발령한다. 이 방법을 2004년과 2005년 4월 경기 안성의 포도원에 적용하여 결과의 신뢰도를 확인하였다. 같은 방법으로 1971-2000평년의 기후조건에서 예상되는 안성지역의 포도 늦서리피해 위험지역을 30 m의 고해상도 전자기후도로 표현하였다. 안성시 전역을 30 m 격자점으로 표현하면 총 608,585개로 구성되는데, 평년의 포도 상해위험지역 판정결과 거봉은 1,059지역이, Campbell Early는 2,788지역이 주의지대로 예상된다.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.457-469
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• 2022

Hydraulic concrete buildings in the northwest of China are often subject to the combined effects of low-temperature frost damage, during drying and wetting cycles, and salt erosion, so the study of concrete deterioration prediction is of major importance. The prediction model of the relative dynamic elastic modulus (RDEM) of four different kinds of modified concrete under the special environment in the northwest of China was established using Grey residual Markov theory. Based on the available test data, modified values of the dynamic elastic modulus were obtained based on the Grey GM(1,1) model and the residual GM(1,1) model, combined with the Markov sign correction, and the dynamic elastic modulus of concrete was predicted. The computational analysis showed that the maximum relative error of the corrected dynamic elastic modulus was significantly reduced, from 1.599% to 0.270% for the BS2 group. The analysis error showed that the model was more adjusted to the concrete mixed with fly ash and mineral powder, and its calculation error was significantly lower than that of the rest of the groups. The analysis of the data for each group proved that the model could predict the loss of dynamic elastic modulus of the deterioration of the concrete effectively, as well as the number of cycles when the concrete reached the damaged state.

• 정보처리학회논문지D
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• 제18D권5호
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• pp.385-392
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• 2011

최근 농업 분야에 IT를 접목시킨 농업-IT 융합 기술에 대한 연구가 주목 받고 있다. 특히, 공간 데이터 마이닝(spatial data mining, SDM)을 이용한 농작물 관련 예측 서비스들을 통해 자연재해에 대한 피해를 줄이고 농작물의 생산성을 높이고자 하는 연구들이 있어 왔다. 그러나 예측 서비스를 위한 SDM에 필요한 학습 데이터는 분산되어 있는 데이터간의 이질성으로 인해 데이터 변환과 통합과정에 많은 비용과 시간이 발생한다. 또한 공간 데이터와 비공간 데이터 간의 공간적 이웃 관계를 연산하기 위해 대용량의 데이터에 대한 복잡한 연산과정이 필요하다. 본 논문에서는 각각의 데이터 소스를 하나의 서비스 단위로 취급함으로써 분산된 이질적인 데이터를 효과적으로 통합 관리할 수 있고 SDM을 위한 학습 데이터의 생산성을 향상시켜 최적의 예측 서비스의 발견을 지원해 주는 SOA 기반의 데이터 통합 프레임워크를 제안한다. 실험을 통해 경기도 이천시의 복숭아나무의 동해 피해지역에 대한 최적의 예측 서비스의 발견을 위해 제안 프레임워크를 효과적으로 적용할 수 있음을 확인하였다.

• 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지반공학회 2010년도 추계 학술발표회
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• pp.1151-1155
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• 2010

Frost depth is one of important factors to design roadway structure, and it can be estimated with numerical simulation on thermal distribution through subgrade soils. Thermal conductivity is a key parameter for accurate prediction on thermal distribution, but there are few studies on thermal conductivity of subgrade soils in Korea. Thermal conductivity can be affected by several factors such as dry density, moisture content, and saturation degree based on previous researches. Two empirical equations to estimate thermal conductivity are applied to access the accuracy of these equations with experimental data. Results indicate that the equation can be used to estimate thermal conductivity with proper quartz fraction.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.7-23
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• 1997

우리나라의 전면적인 약 95%가 계절적 동결지역에 속하며 동상과 융해로 인해 도로등 지반구조물은 피해을 입는다. 본 논문에서는 국립건설시험소의 10년간 실측자료중 지역별로 대표하여 15개 도시 528개 지점을 선정하여 최대동결지수를 4개 그룹(250이하, 250∼400, 400∼600, 600이상)으로 분류하여 분석하였다. 또한 동결심도 계산에 동결지수외에 흙의 함수비와 전조밀도를 각각 추가로 고려하여 새로운 산정식을 제시하였다. 그리고 지역에 따른 과다산정을 막기 위하여 동결지수 분류별로 4그룹으로 세분화하여 경제적인 설계가 가능하도록 하였다. 새 제안식과 기존식을 비교하여 보았을 때 새 제안식이 기존식보다 전반적으로 크게 산정되나 그 지역의 함수비나 건조밀도를 추가로 고려하였으므로 보다 합리적인 산정식이라 할 수 있다.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.381-394
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• 2005

In order to estimate the damage of orchards due' to natural disasters such as typhoon, severe rain, freezing or frost, it is necessary to estimate the number of fruit bearing before and after the damage. To estimate the fruit bearing after the damages are easily done by delegations, but it cost too high to survey every insured farm household and calculate the fruit bearing before the damage. In this article, we suggest to use a random coefficient model to predict the numbers of fruit bearing in the orchards before the damage based on the tree age and the area information.

• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제20권2호
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• pp.57-65
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• 2018

PURPOSES : The study aims to predict the service life of national highway asphalt pavements through deep learning methods by using maintenance history data of the National Highway Pavement Management System. METHODS : For the configuration of a deep learning network, this study used Tensorflow 1.5, an open source program which has excellent usability among deep learning frameworks. For the analysis, nine variables of cumulative annual average daily traffic, cumulative equivalent single axle loads, maintenance layer, surface, base, subbase, anti-frost layer, structural number of pavement, and region were selected as input data, while service life was chosen to construct the input layer and output layers as output data. Additionally, for scenario analysis, in this study, a model was formed with four different numbers of 1, 2, 4, and 8 hidden layers and a simulation analysis was performed according to the applicability of the over fitting resolution algorithm. RESULTS : The results of the analysis have shown that regardless of the number of hidden layers, when an over fitting resolution algorithm, such as dropout, is applied, the prediction capability is improved as the coefficient of determination ($R^2$) of the test data increases. Furthermore, the result of the sensitivity analysis of the applicability of region variables demonstrates that estimating service life requires sufficient consideration of regional characteristics as $R^2$ had a maximum of between 0.73 and 0.84, when regional variables where taken into consideration. CONCLUSIONS : As a result, this study proposes that it is possible to precisely predict the service life of national highway pavement sections with the consideration of traffic, pavement thickness, and regional factors and concludes that the use of the prediction of service life is fundamental data in decision making within pavement management systems.

• 한국농림기상학회지
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• 제7권3호
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• pp.185-191
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• 2005

An accurate prediction of dormancy release and bud burst in temperate zone fruit trees is indispensable for farmers to plan heating time under partially controlled environments as well as to reduce the risk of frost damage in open fields. A thermal time-based two-step phenological model that originated in Italy was applied to two important grapevine cultivars in Korea for predicting bud-burst dates. The model consists of two sequential periods: a rest period described by chilling requirement and a forcing period described by heating requirement. It requires daily maximum and minimum temperature as an input and calculates daily chill units (chill days in negative sign) until a pre-determined chilling requirement for rest release is met. After the projected rest release date, it adds daily heat units (anti-chill days in positive sign) to the chilling requirement. The date when the sum reaches zero isregarded as the bud-burst in the model. Controlled environment experiments using field sampled twigs of 'Campbell Early' and 'Kyoho' cultivars were carried out in the vineyard at the National Horticultural Research Institute (NHRI) in Suwon during 2004-2005 to derive the model parameters: threshold temperature for chilling and chilling requirement for breaking dormancy. The model adjusted with the selected parameters was applied to the 1994-2004 daily temperature data obtained from the automated weather station in the NHRI vineyard to estimate bud burst dates of two cultivars and the results were compared with the observed data. The model showed a consistently good performance in predicting the bud burst of 'Campbell Early' and 'Kyoho' cultivars with 2.6 and 2.5 days of root mean squared error, respectively.

• 설비공학논문집
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• 제20권12호
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• pp.789-794
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• 2008

Recently, much attention has been paid in the field of defrosting because clear windshield in vehicle without effecting the thermal comfort is realized essentially. Then in winter, defrosting performance is one of the important factors in vehicle design to make certain driver's view. In this study, the velocity profile, temperature distribution and frost melting pattern on the windshield screen have been predicted in three dimensional geometry of an automobile interior. Numerical analyses predict a detailed description of fluid flow and temperature patterns on the inside windshield screen, utilizing the flow through defroster nozzle. Numerical prediction established a good defrosting performance with the standard distance ratio and the defroster nozzle angle ranging from $30^{\circ}$ to $40^{\circ}$, which satisfy the condition of National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) completely.

• 한국농림기상학회지
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• 제10권3호
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• pp.107-112
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• 2008

"Jeung-Bo-San-Lim-Gyeong-Je" (meaning "Revised Forest Management") has been well recognized as the informative document that introduces scientific knowledge and experiences of Korean ancestors regarding weather and climate. The tradition of Gwan-Cheon-Mang-Gi(i.e., empirical forecasting of short-term weather phenomena based on the status of cloud or sky) has been continuously utilized as a civilian weather forecasting method and even for very short-term weather prediction by operational forecasters these days. This agricultural technology textbook, published during the Great King Youngjo in Chosun-Dynasty, may be regarded as a poorly written document from the modern standpoint. Nonetheless, this study demonstrates that by and large the empirical knowledge contained in the book is indeed science based although their applications are limited to several hours for local forecasts in agricultural practices and daily living. For example, the wisdom of keeping water at an optimum level in a paddy field after sowing to prevent young seedlings from late frost damages was not at all different from the present technique of vinyl covered seedling nursery.